Middle East
Hashd al-Shaabi militia groups in Iraq weigh disarmament amid US pressure
According to ten senior commanders and officials who spoke to Reuters, some Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq, known as Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), are prepared to lay down their arms for the first time to avoid a potential conflict with the US administration under President Donald Trump. Sources, including six local commanders from four major militia organizations, indicate that this move to de-escalate tensions follows private warnings issued by US officials to the Iraqi government since Trump took office in January. The US conveyed to Baghdad that these groups could face airstrikes if they are not disbanded.
Izzat al-Shahbandar, a Shiite politician close to the Iraqi government, told Reuters that discussions between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and militia leaders are “very advanced,” and the groups are responding positively to the US call for disarmament. “These groups are not being stubborn. They are aware that they could be targets of US attacks,” said Shahbandar.
The report stated that the six commanders who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity are from the following groups: Kata’ib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades), Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (Movement of the Noble Ones), Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades), and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (Supporters of God’s Loyalists). A commander from Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the most influential organizations, allegedly said, “Trump is ready to take this war to a worse point. We want to prevent this disaster.”
According to the report, militia commanders stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has authorized them to take all necessary steps to avoid a devastating conflict with the US and Israel.
These organizations, part of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance, possess approximately 50,000 fighters and long-range missiles. Citing two security officials, Reuters reports that the Iraqi Islamic Resistance is “a key pillar of Iran’s regional proxy network.”
These organizations have claimed responsibility for dozens of missile and drone attacks targeting US interests in Israel and Syria since October 7.
Farhad Alaeddin, Prime Minister Sudani’s foreign policy advisor, told Reuters that the government aims to bring all weapons under state control and intends to achieve this “through constructive dialogue with various national actors.”
Two security officials close to the Sudani government reported that the prime minister is insistent on disarming all militias affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Quds Force.
According to officials and commanders, since mid-January, some groups have largely evacuated their headquarters and reduced their presence in major cities such as Mosul and Anbar, fearing airstrikes. It was also noted that many commanders have increased security measures during this time, changing their cell phones, vehicles, and residences more frequently.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that there have been instances in the past where militias have ceased attacks due to US pressure, but doubts remain about whether any disarmament will be long-term.
Shahbandar noted that a final agreement with the militia organizations has not yet been reached, and the disarmament mechanism is still under discussion. Options such as transforming the militias into political parties or integrating them into the Iraqi army are being considered.
Reuters included the following assessments in the report:
While the fate of any disarmament process remains uncertain, the discussions still indicate that the militias are preparing for the first time to yield to long-standing Western pressure.
This shift coincides with a fragile period for the “Axis of Resistance” that Tehran has built over decades. Iran’s regional proxy forces have been significantly impacted by the war that began after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been subjected to heavy Israeli attacks, and the Houthis in Yemen have been targeted by US air operations. The decline of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has also weakened Tehran’s influence.
Iraq is trying to balance its policies regarding militias with both Washington and Tehran. These groups were formed with Iran’s financial and military support after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and have grown into a force capable of rivaling the national army over time.
According to two government officials and two security sources, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, shortly after the start of American attacks on the Houthis, requested in a phone call with Prime Minister Sudani on March 16 that he prevent the militias from launching retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases in the region in support of their allies.
Since the start of the Gaza war, Iraq-based militias have carried out dozens of drone and rocket attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas and killed three US soldiers in a drone operation near the Syrian border in Jordan last year.
Sudani’s former advisor, Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, stated on state television, “The US has long wanted these militias to be disbanded, but this time Washington may not accept ‘no’ for an answer. If we do not comply voluntarily, it may be imposed on us from the outside and by force.”
Middle East
US envoy says Syria interim leader Sharaa seeks Israel normalization
US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack stated that Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, wants to normalize relations with Israel.
At the same time, he called for an end to Israel’s military operations in Syria and questioned whether Washington should intervene to halt them.
Speaking at the Global Security Forum held in Doha, Qatar, Barrack said Sharaa had managed difficult circumstances well and was trying to reassure Israel that his government poses no threat.
“I think President Sharaa has done a very good job under very difficult circumstances,” Barrack said, describing the message he believes the Syrian leader is conveying to Israel: “I am not aggressive, I have no problem with Israel, I want relations with Israel to normalize.”
Barrack also urged Israel to stop its operations in Syria, while voicing uncertainty over whether the US should step in to end them:
“It’s time to stop this [Israel’s actions in Syria]. I don’t know if it’s time for the US to intervene to stop it.”
Israel intensified its military operations in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024. Israeli forces entered the demilitarized “buffer zone” along the Golan Heights and took up positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Shaykh), with Israel describing the deployment as a temporary security measure.
Israeli air strikes have also targeted military facilities and weapons depots across the country.
Barrack pointed to Syria’s political transition as an example of how groups once viewed as adversaries could be incorporated into new political and security structures.
“You can take Nusra, which was once designated a foreign terrorist organization; following the transformation that took place on December 8, many people today evaluate this example as ‘here is a model,'” the US diplomat said.
The Nusra Front was a jihadist group that emerged during the Syrian civil war and, after pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda, announced its departure from the network. The organization was designated as “terrorist” by several countries and bodies, primarily the US and the UN.
The group’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), subsequently headed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive that ousted Assad.
Barrack also highlighted the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian national army as an outcome many had previously considered unlikely.
“Nobody thought you could reintegrate this Kurdish entity, the SDF, into a national army, but it happened,” the US official said.
Damascus and the Kurdish-led forces signed an agreement on 10 March 2025 to integrate the SDF’s military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state.
However, delays occurred in the implementation of the agreement due to disputes over integration terms and the future of self-administration in the region.
Barrack nevertheless expressed doubts about the effectiveness of earlier US interventions in the Middle East, citing Washington’s involvement in what he characterized as “23 regime changes” across the wider region.
“Whenever we have tried to intervene, to change a person or a regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” Barrack said, while also questioning the value of US intervention in Yemen, describing it as apparently “senseless.”
Middle East
US and Israel weigh Iran strikes after midterm vote, reports say
The US and Israeli defence ministries have drawn up plans for a fresh assault on Iran, with the envisioned offensive under consideration to launch after the US Congressional midterm elections on 3 November.
Citing sources, The New York Times reported that the blueprint anticipates a brief but intense campaign.
As military units step up their drills, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed prospective strike options with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The list of targets encompasses Iran’s nuclear sites, its energy infrastructure, and its arsenals of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Several officials who spoke to the newspaper argued that a new wave of attacks could deal a heavy blow to the Iranian economy, forcing the leadership in Tehran into concessions.
Conversely, other sources doubt whether a resumption of fighting would prove any more successful than the earlier campaign conducted between February and April.
That previous offensive drove energy prices higher and drained US stockpiles of interceptor missiles.
It remains unclear whether US President Donald Trump will authorise the operation.
Domestic political calculations in Israel could also influence the trajectory of the plans, given that the country faces general elections on 27 October.
While some experts speaking to the newspaper contended that Netanyahu could leverage the threat of war to form a national unity government, others pointed to the opposition’s distrust of the prime minister.
Washington fears regional spillover
The US administration also harbours concerns that the fighting could engulf the wider region. On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-essential government personnel and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia following attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis.
A US military build-up, comprising three aircraft carriers, fighter aircraft, and special forces units, is slated to be fully deployed to the region by early November.
The targets under review include the deep underground nuclear facility code-named “Pickaxe”. Trump suggested that the high-yield GBU-43/B bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs”, could be deployed against the site, though experts doubt whether the ordnance can destroy a complex buried so deeply.
For its part, Tehran is preparing for a potential escalation, threatening to broaden its target list. Retaliatory options under consideration by Iran reportedly include data centres and subsea internet cables, in addition to shipping and energy facilities.
Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to an Iranian negotiator, dismissed US hopes of wrapping up a new campaign within 72 hours as a “fantasy”. Mohammadi warned that Tehran’s response would be more severe and unpredictable.
The Financial Times previously reported that an Israeli strike on Iran set for 10 October had been called off because the US president was unwilling to risk a broader conflict ahead of the Congressional midterms.
According to that report, the Israeli military had prepared a multi-day assault on nuclear sites, Iranian government targets, power plants, and civilian infrastructure on Netanyahu’s orders. The strikes had been designed to exceed the intensity of the campaign begun in February.
Washington seeks to secure an agreement from Tehran covering both the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear programme.
“It will either be a deal or a strike,” one source told the Financial Times, adding that an operation could get under way in the coming weeks.
Another official who spoke to the paper suggested that Israeli preparations might serve as leverage to squeeze Iran in negotiations.
Axios also reported that the Pentagon had issued orders to prepare for renewed strikes, though the directive contained no specific date and Trump has yet to take a final decision.
The US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran on 28 February. Iran hit back by targeting US and Israeli assets across the region and curbing vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that provided for a ceasefire and talks to lift the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran have persisted.
Middle East
Netanyahu trails Eisenkot in Israeli polls despite Trump backing
As general elections scheduled for 27 October approach in Israel, the opposition camp led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot continues to lead Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in public opinion polls.
Survey data published in the Israeli press on 19 and 20 October reveal that the governing coalition has failed to catch the opposition, despite explicit backing from US President Donald Trump.
However, the current distribution of votes documents that neither wing can reach a governing majority on its own.
Netanyahu reaches 61 seats in Channel 14’s latest poll. He doesn’t in i24’s.
Both give him a stronger position than Kan and Maariv. Likud gets 29 seats in Channel 14, 25 in i24, 21 in Kan and 18 in Maariv.
Count the same five lists—Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma… pic.twitter.com/Qb0fCq0qdK
— Zvika Klein צביקה קליין (@ZvikaKlein) October 19, 2026
Neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed to form a government
According to a survey conducted by Channel 13, if an election were held today, Eisenkot’s bloc would win 51 seats, while the Netanyahu coalition would take 50.
A Channel 12 poll indicates that the gap has widened slightly, projecting 55 seats for Eisenkot’s alliance and 51 for the governing bloc. A minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament.
A key factor deadlocking the political arithmetic is the refusal by both sides to form a coalition with parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. This stance stands as the most tangible obstacle to securing a parliamentary majority after the election.
Channel 12 data shows that overall voter turnout is expected to remain at 72%. The inclination to head to the ballot box climbs to 81% among opposition voters, compared with 74% measured among Netanyahu supporters.
The same poll notes that Eisenkot has widened his lead over Netanyahu by two further points in prime ministerial preferences.
Yashar party climbs after Gantz bows out
A survey published on the Walla news site shows that the balance shifted after Benny Gantz decided to withdraw his Blue and White party from the race. Following that move, Eisenkot’s Yashar party increased its projected tally to 23 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud dropped by one seat to 19.
Eisenkot’s party and the “Zionist Opposition” bloc it anchors have remained atop the polls for several months.
In an earlier message of support, Trump praised Netanyahu as “a great fighting prime minister and an even greater partner for peace.” Public opinion polls document that this diplomatic and political backing has not proved sufficient to tip the preferences of the Israeli electorate in favour of the incumbent government.
Support for Ben Gvir rises among young voters
Although Netanyahu’s alliance trails in overall strength, far-right figures within the coalition appear to be expanding their grassroots base. Gauged interest in the Jewish Power party of Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir is climbing, particularly among younger voters.
Speaking to a study conducted by Agam Labs, affiliated with the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, an 18-year-old student described his shifting preference: “I used to think he was a bit crazy, but then I actually looked at what he was saying, and it all made sense.”
Another Israeli citizen stated that Ben Gvir’s push to arm West Bank settlers gave them “room to breathe.”
Ben Gvir is known for leading settler incursions into the Al-Aqsa compound and distributing military-grade rifles to tens of thousands of settlers since 7 October 2023.
Criticized for escalating violence against Palestinians, Ben Gvir has called for starving Gaza, maintaining military operations in Lebanon, and bombing Beirut. The far-right minister’s militaristic stances also find a political constituency across several opposition parties in Israel.
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