US and Israeli officials say indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and prisoner swap deal are ‘on the verge of collapse’ and that there is no alternative agreement. Iran has upped the stakes by raising the possibility of a ground attack in retaliation against Israel, which it has suspended over the ceasefire talks.
According to the US daily Politico, two unnamed American and two Israeli officials said that negotiations brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt had reached an impasse.
The officials said the current proposal was ‘the strongest deal yet’, tailored to the demands of both Hamas and Israel.
Noting that US President Joe Biden’s administration had been more optimistic about a deal ‘just a few weeks ago’, the officials said the American side was ‘increasingly concerned’ that the current proposal would fail, like its predecessors, because of disagreements between Hamas and Israel.
The New York Times (NYT) reports that some officials say US efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza have fallen short on key points.
According to the paper, “Israeli and Hamas officials” with knowledge of US “proposals” and negotiations for a ceasefire spoke to the NYT. Despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s claim that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had accepted his offer of a deal, the officials said key disagreements between Hamas and Israel remained unresolved.
The officials said the US initiatives had fallen short on key points and that the US proposal included the Israeli army remaining on Gaza’s border with Egypt.
Under the new US proposal, Israeli troops would continue to patrol part of this border area, albeit in reduced numbers, the officials said, adding that during the negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha, US officials asked for a delay in negotiations on Israel’s demand that displaced Palestinians returning to northern Gaza be subjected to ‘weapons checks’.
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on 15-16 August, with the aim of reaching a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza.
US Secretary of State Blinken, who arrived in Israel on 19 August to discuss the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza, told a press conference that ‘Israel accepted the ceasefire proposal that was on the table’, but declined to reveal the terms of the draft.
Blinken claimed that Netanyahu, who had announced that he would insist on preconditions for a deal, had ‘accepted the new proposal that closes the gaps’.
‘There is a possibility of an Iranian attack if there is no agreement’
Netanyahu’s insistence on adding new conditions to the draft ceasefire announced by US President Joe Biden on 27 May, claiming it was different from the Israeli proposal, is said to have put the deal in trouble.
Andrew Miller, who served as the US State Department’s assistant secretary of state for Israeli-Palestinian affairs until June, told Politico: “(The deal) seems to be at an impasse, but it’s one of those moments where it’s hard to think of a better strategy, even though it’s unlikely that we’ll get an agreement.
But if we don’t get the deal, there is a possibility that Iran will attack and this could turn into a full-scale conflict,’ an Israeli official said, adding that they did not yet know Hamas’ approach to the deal.
‘Gaza deal is a way out of conflict with Hezbollah’
Andrew Miller argues that ‘additional efforts are needed by both Hamas and Israel’ to reach a final agreement. It also states that the Biden administration believes that the Gaza agreement will be a ‘way out’ of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Officials note that the failure of the current negotiations for an agreement will escalate the conflict both in Gaza and with Hezbollah.
Iran: Our response to Israel can also be on land
Meanwhile, Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations (UN) said that Tehran’s response to Israel over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Heniyye would be ‘unexpected’ and ‘regrettable’ and could be by land.
According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Iran’s Permanent Mission to the UN was responding to a question about whether ‘Iran has deliberately delayed its response to Israel until the outcome of the ceasefire talks in Gaza is known’.
Iran’s response should have 2 clear consequences. First, it should punish the aggressor for ‘terrorism’ and ‘violation of Iran’s national sovereignty’. Second, it should strengthen Iran’s deterrent power and make Israel regret it in order to prevent any future attacks’.
The statement said that Iran’s response would include avoiding any negative impact on a possible ceasefire: ‘Iran’s response is likely to come at the time and under the conditions that Israel would least like. Perhaps at a time when they are ignoring the ground attack, when their eyes are in the sky and on the radar screen, or an attack consisting of both.
The deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ali Fedawi, said in a statement yesterday: ‘We will determine when and how the revenge of the martyr Heniyye will be avenged, and it will definitely take place’, while the spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Mohammad Naini, said: “Time is in our favour. Let the enemy wait for the time when he will be shot”.
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