Middle East
Ceasefire talks deadlocked: Iran raises hand in retaliation
US and Israeli officials say indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and prisoner swap deal are ‘on the verge of collapse’ and that there is no alternative agreement. Iran has upped the stakes by raising the possibility of a ground attack in retaliation against Israel, which it has suspended over the ceasefire talks.
According to the US daily Politico, two unnamed American and two Israeli officials said that negotiations brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt had reached an impasse.
The officials said the current proposal was ‘the strongest deal yet’, tailored to the demands of both Hamas and Israel.
Noting that US President Joe Biden’s administration had been more optimistic about a deal ‘just a few weeks ago’, the officials said the American side was ‘increasingly concerned’ that the current proposal would fail, like its predecessors, because of disagreements between Hamas and Israel.
The New York Times (NYT) reports that some officials say US efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza have fallen short on key points.
According to the paper, “Israeli and Hamas officials” with knowledge of US “proposals” and negotiations for a ceasefire spoke to the NYT. Despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s claim that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had accepted his offer of a deal, the officials said key disagreements between Hamas and Israel remained unresolved.
The officials said the US initiatives had fallen short on key points and that the US proposal included the Israeli army remaining on Gaza’s border with Egypt.
Under the new US proposal, Israeli troops would continue to patrol part of this border area, albeit in reduced numbers, the officials said, adding that during the negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha, US officials asked for a delay in negotiations on Israel’s demand that displaced Palestinians returning to northern Gaza be subjected to ‘weapons checks’.
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on 15-16 August, with the aim of reaching a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza.
US Secretary of State Blinken, who arrived in Israel on 19 August to discuss the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza, told a press conference that ‘Israel accepted the ceasefire proposal that was on the table’, but declined to reveal the terms of the draft.
Blinken claimed that Netanyahu, who had announced that he would insist on preconditions for a deal, had ‘accepted the new proposal that closes the gaps’.
‘There is a possibility of an Iranian attack if there is no agreement’
Netanyahu’s insistence on adding new conditions to the draft ceasefire announced by US President Joe Biden on 27 May, claiming it was different from the Israeli proposal, is said to have put the deal in trouble.
Andrew Miller, who served as the US State Department’s assistant secretary of state for Israeli-Palestinian affairs until June, told Politico: “(The deal) seems to be at an impasse, but it’s one of those moments where it’s hard to think of a better strategy, even though it’s unlikely that we’ll get an agreement.
But if we don’t get the deal, there is a possibility that Iran will attack and this could turn into a full-scale conflict,’ an Israeli official said, adding that they did not yet know Hamas’ approach to the deal.
‘Gaza deal is a way out of conflict with Hezbollah’
Andrew Miller argues that ‘additional efforts are needed by both Hamas and Israel’ to reach a final agreement. It also states that the Biden administration believes that the Gaza agreement will be a ‘way out’ of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Officials note that the failure of the current negotiations for an agreement will escalate the conflict both in Gaza and with Hezbollah.
Iran: Our response to Israel can also be on land
Meanwhile, Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations (UN) said that Tehran’s response to Israel over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Heniyye would be ‘unexpected’ and ‘regrettable’ and could be by land.
According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Iran’s Permanent Mission to the UN was responding to a question about whether ‘Iran has deliberately delayed its response to Israel until the outcome of the ceasefire talks in Gaza is known’.
Iran’s response should have 2 clear consequences. First, it should punish the aggressor for ‘terrorism’ and ‘violation of Iran’s national sovereignty’. Second, it should strengthen Iran’s deterrent power and make Israel regret it in order to prevent any future attacks’.
The statement said that Iran’s response would include avoiding any negative impact on a possible ceasefire: ‘Iran’s response is likely to come at the time and under the conditions that Israel would least like. Perhaps at a time when they are ignoring the ground attack, when their eyes are in the sky and on the radar screen, or an attack consisting of both.
The deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ali Fedawi, said in a statement yesterday: ‘We will determine when and how the revenge of the martyr Heniyye will be avenged, and it will definitely take place’, while the spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Mohammad Naini, said: “Time is in our favour. Let the enemy wait for the time when he will be shot”.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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