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China-Japan relations in Washington’s shadow

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In the Asia-Pacific region, the China-US conflict remains intense. Beijing is responding to Washington’s attempt to surround China through regional actors, by strengthening its military and economic position in the region.

This contention, which international relations experts called ‘competition’ and China rejected the definitions of ‘competition’ and ‘power struggle’, was also reflected in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit held in Thailand last week.

In her speech at the summit, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris underlined Washington’s message that ‘we are here to stay’, referring to its long-term plans and goals in the Indo-Pacific, while Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that the Asia-Pacific “is nobody’s backyard”. Unlike Harris, Xi’s use of the term “Asia-Pacific” instead of “Indo-Pacific” was another notable message.

The United States, Britain and Australia formed the AUKUS alliance in September last year to suppress China in Asia-Pacific, which attracted a huge reaction from Beijing. The Chinese government said the pact would seriously damage regional peace and stability.

Japan recently announced that it will sign a military agreement with UK for security co-operation in the Asia-Pacific region. It was commented that this pact was a step that could pave the way for UK in the Pacific and expand AUKUS at the same time. As a matter of fact, the U.S. is planning to include Japan and even Canada in the AUKUS alliance against China soon.

‘Maritime’ agreement from the leaders of China and Japan

China, on the other hand, is trying to overcome the surrounding in Asia-Pacific by strengthening economic relations in the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the issue with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Bangkok, saying they were aiming to build a regional economic cooperation architecture. They agreed to deepen maritime dialogue, manage differences over Taiwan and territorial disputes, and open a military helpline. Just days after the meeting, the two countries exchanged their views on maritime affairs via video conferencing, and officials pledged to “earnestly implement” the agreement reached by the leaders of the two countries.

Bilateral relations have worn out in recent months as Japan increased its alignment with the U.S. over sensitive issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang. However, the two leaders’ 45 minutes of warm talk during the APEC summit rekindled hopes between the two countries.

Despite this, Tokyo today has accused Beijing of entering Japanese territorial waters in the East China Sea.

Tokyo economists are concerned

Japan’s business community, which has an important position in the U.S. strategy of surrounding China, is worried about the “huge losses” from the decoupling from China. Japanese economists and businessmen are discussing the cost of this disintegration as Washington attempts to urge Tokyo completely cut ties with Beijing.

Speaking to the Global Times recently, Japanese experts pointed out that “the full ‘decoupling’ of the Japanese and Chinese economies will be extremely costly, and both countries may lose in the end,” and stressed that “so-called political interests should not precede national interests.”

Japanese media outlet Nikkei Asia reported that Japanese companies are trying to structure supply chains without dependence on China amid China’s growing conflict with the U.S. However, it is stated that this policy will significantly increase the cost of all kinds of products.

In August, it is reported that Honda launched a project to restructure its large-scale supply chain to explore the possibility of producing cars and motorcycles without being dependent on Chinese-made parts. However, China accounts for more than 30 per cent of Honda’s global sales. According to Nikkei Asia, the company’s “policy of making China the basis of its earnings” will not change in the future. The report highlights that the giant carmaker doesn’t currently intend to separate from China but is preparing for potential risks.

Speaking anonymously to the Global Times, a Japanese executive said the Japanese government plans to incorporate the concept of “economic security” into its national security strategy, essentially expanding its scope of security and “intentionally keeping pace with the US.”

Based on studies conducted at Waseda University, production of about 53 trillion yen ($360 billion) could disappear if the Japanese economy breaks away from China, Nikkei Asia reported. This means a loss of about 10 per cent of Japan’s gross domestic product. China accounts for 26 per cent of Japan’s total imports, while the U.S. is behind China with 19 per cent. According to Japanese statistics, China is Japan’s largest trading partner since 2007.

In addition, one of Japan’s main export targets is China. Japan exports semiconductors, chemicals, and many other products to China. It is reported that the Washington administration have asked Tokyo to take action to impose restrictions on its semiconductor exports to China. Forcing Japan to separate from China may also lead to the loss of Japan’s most important export market. It is not clear whether Japanese politicians will risk this loss, but it seems that economists and industrialists will continue to put pressure on the government to do so.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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ASIA

Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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