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China, Pakistan and the regional security

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China and Pakistan had established ties in the wake of 1962, but their relations further improved in the 2000s due to changes in regional and global politics that made Pakistan a critical partner to China.

At the beginning, if we talk about the 1900s, China was in some way reluctant to have a strong friendship with Pakistan. It could be because of the idea that the Chinese had in that time like “hide your strength and abide your time”. China was in no way interested to show its power and also doesn’t want to have closer ties with any countries. But it’s not the case any longer as Beijing is more involved in today’s affairs in both “security and economy”.

Ironically, the regional countries and the world are also welcoming China’s engagement and Pakistan is one of those countries. Pakistan sees the bilateral ties as a valuable friendship and the Chinese did not see or have needed to trumpet the relationship; rather it is Pakistan which needed China more than the other way around.

However, at the moment, China also sees the bilateral ties with Pakistan important for both the capitals, as Beijing now calls Islamabad as a good friend and supportive partner.

It is not wise to always bring India into account of the flourishing ties between China and Pakistan because China and India are also connected to economic affairs. There are some issues in bordering points, but China had never appeared to play double cards in return to keep Pakistan happy.

China has its own ambitions which is to help the regional countries in security and economic affairs because the region will not reach progress if they remain in hostility.

There is an understanding that the China-Pakistan relationship was built in the aftermath of the 1962 China-India border dispute, but now the focus is more on mending the ties and improving the economy. Pakistan used this opportunity and in 1963 handed over the Shaksgam Valley to the Chinese.

China doesn’t support war between Pakistan and India

It was a good attempt, but this was not like China is not willing to have ties with India. Of course, China has helped Pakistan after receiving control of the Valley, but this was not in return of helping Pakistan to further increase its enmity with India.

There are several reasons that China is not seeing India as its predominant strategic threat. One reason is that China doesn’t believe in war. The clear example is that China did not support Pakistan in its war against India in 1965 and 1971. And also there was a big incident in 2019 when Pakistan shot down two Indian jets and nothing left for another war between Islamabad and New Delhi. Again China approached with a peaceful solution and did not support Pakistan rather called for a peaceful resolution.

Moreover, China also did not support Pakistan during the Kargil war in 1999 and during the Mumbai terrorist attacks in 2008. China at the same time is concerned about internal security of Pakistan, an Asian state with nuclear weapons, and a population of over 200 million. Additionally, there are a number of terrorist groups operating inside Pakistan, which is yet another concern of China.

China and Pakistan stress need for regional peace

China on Wednesday welcomed Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General (COAS) Asim Munir and along with his Chinese counterpart, they discussed regional peace and security. The meeting was held at the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) headquarters during Munir’s first day of the four-day official visit to Beijing.

A statement issued by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said “both the military commanders reiterated the need for maintaining peace and stability in the region and enhancing military-to-military cooperation.” Issues relating mutual security interests and military cooperation were also discussed.

Munir is expected to hold further meetings with military leaders in China to enhance the long-standing relations between the two countries during his remaining three days. The visit comes at a time when security has deteriorated across Pakistan.

Swat blast claims 17 lives

At least 17 people lost their lives and over 50 others received injuries in a blast at counter-terrorism department (CTD) police station in Swat. The reason behind the blast is unknown. According to a preliminary report, the explosions is not due to a suicide attack, but also the cause is not clear.

The counter-terrorism office building in Kabal town of Swat after the explosion on April 25, 2023. Reuters

High alert has been declared across Swat and also security audits of important local and foreign installations have been ordered to improve security arrangements. Pakistan’s Intelligence Unit of the capitol police, also known as Special Branch and Security Division will conduct a survey for the security audit and priority would be the security audit of the Red Zone and all police installations in the capital.

In 2020, the last security audit of an important foreign installation was conducted, and now is the second such practice. After the blast, police were also ordered to wear safety gear, remain on alert and keep their distance from each other on the line of duty.

Security matters

Peaceful regions and neighboring countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Central Asian states are important for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Unstable region will hamper BRI’s activities, a gargantuan multilateral infrastructure and investment project that will help improve the region’s economy and security.

The current China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is part of the BRI that continues a variety of initiatives such as infrastructure, energy, economic zones, and the development of a strategic port, Gwadar. CPEC is part of a 62 billion development project and it is meant to be a strategic and economic connection between China and Pakistan.

The success of CPEC directly means the success of BRI itself and for that security situation in Pakistan must be improved.

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Afraid of the gun; Taliban supreme leader fears of a coup

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Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Taliban, has ordered the security institutions that without his permission, “no one can distribute or use the military equipment registered by the ministries of defense and interior, the directorate of intelligence and other independent institutions.”

Experts and analysts have considered this move by Hibatullah as last resort to weaken the position of defense minister, Yaqoob Mujahid, interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani and the head of Taliban intelligence, Abdul Haq Wasiq in order to prevent a possible internal coup that was initiated by these three top officials.

In the first article of the order, it is mentioned that no person can distribute military equipment registered in the reserves of the ministries of defense, interior and intelligence, or issue an order to distribute it without the order of Hibatullah.

This decree titled “Regarding the distribution, protection and supervision of registered military equipment”, specifies that whenever an Emirate entity (Taliban-related entity) needs weapons, ammunition, night vision cameras, telecommunications and other military equipment” must receive the approval order from the leader of the Taliban.

Also, in the second article of this decree, it is stated that whenever one of the military departments of the Taliban needs military equipment, it must send its request to Hibatullah’s office in Kandahar.

In the third article of the decree, it is emphasized that if the military equipment was distributed or used without the permission of the Taliban leader before the issuance of this decree, they must be returned to the reserves.

Ministries of defense, interior and head of intelligence department are banned from disturbing military weapons.

According to this article, Hibatullah entrusted the ministries of defense and interior, as well as the general directorate of Taliban intelligence, with the responsibility to report the list of available military equipment to the directorate of registration, and protection of military equipment.

This order of the Taliban leader has been considered as another step in the direction of concentrating more power in the hands of Mullah Hibatullah in Kandahar. Many have seen it as a sign of Hibatullah’s increasing distrust of senior Taliban officials in Kabul. Previously, some senior Taliban officials, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, have openly disobeyed Hibatullah’s order to prohibit photography and filming and have not followed the order of their supreme leader.

(R) Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid and (L) Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

Previously, several reports have been published about the sale of military equipment left over from the US troops and Afghan security forces during the republic government. Even the US-elected president Donald Trump, repeatedly mentioned this issue during his election campaigns. Not long ago, the government of Pakistan also announced that the Pakistan security forces have discovered and confiscated a car carrying US weapons smuggled from Afghanistan.

Pakistani media reported that this equipment included M4 assault rifles, night vision cameras and thousands of rounds of ammunition, which were transported in a truck carrying vegetables. Pakistani security officials have estimated the total value of weapons smuggled from Afghanistan in this truck to be 126,354 US dollars.

The cost of US’s remaining equipment in Afghanistan estimated over 7 billion US dollars

The Pentagon has already announced that after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, about 7 billion dollars of military equipment fell into the hands of the Taliban. This equipment reached the hands of the Taliban after the fall of Afghanistan on 15 August, 2021.

It has been reported that when the US forces left Afghanistan, there were 78 US-made aircrafts in the country, whose value reached 1 billion dollars. According to CNN, with the end of the US military presence, a total of more than 9,000 air-to-ground munitions worth more than six and a half million dollars have remained in Afghanistan.

The report also states that out of a total of 96,000 military vehicles, more than 40,000 units, including 12,000 Humvees (armored tanks), fell into the hands of the Taliban. Moreover, out of a total of more than 400,000 weapons that the US gave to the forces of the former Afghan government, about 300,000 remain in the country.

Almost all “communications equipment, including mobile base stations, portable and hand-held commercial and military radio systems, and associated transmitters and encryption devices, all remain in Afghanistan,” according to the report.

The report added that “almost all” of the equipment for night vision cameras, surveillance, biometric and positioning equipment,” a total of nearly 42 thousand pieces of specialized equipment, remained in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Five Mi 17 helicopters of the then Afghan army, which were transferred to Ukraine for repair before the collapse of the government, have also returned to Afghanistan and now are used by the Taliban.

It should be noted that the internal rivalries in the Taliban, especially among the different factions of this group, is one of the important reasons for Mullah Hibatullah’s distrust of some Taliban officials. Some officials, including interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and defense minister Mohammad Yaqub Mujahid, gained a lot of power, especially during the Taliban’s war against foreign forces, and Mullah Hibatullah may be worried that these officials are trying to expand their power, which is a clear threat to his position as the Taliban leader.

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China’s BYD prepares to launch latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe despite EU tariffs

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BYD, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker, is set to launch its latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe, undeterred by recent tariff increases on Chinese-made electric vehicles. This strategic move highlights BYD’s commitment to expanding overseas sales despite economic barriers.

Deliveries of the Sealion 07 are scheduled to begin in 2025, marking BYD’s seventh all-electric model in the European market, the company announced on Wednesday. Additionally, BYD plans to enter the South Korean market next year, adding to its existing presence in 95 countries worldwide.

This European expansion comes on the heels of the European Union’s decision last month to impose new tariffs—ranging from 17% to 35.3%—on Chinese electric vehicles following an anti-subsidy investigation. BYD’s EVs are subject to a 17% tariff, in addition to the standard 10% tariff applied to all pure electric cars imported from China. These tariffs, which took effect last month, will remain in place for five years. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made EVs increased from 25% to 100% as of September, citing similar concerns.

Despite the added costs, BYD’s vehicles continue to hold strong appeal in export markets. “BYD’s vehicles remain attractive even after the additional tariffs, so it’s not really a big problem for the company,” said Chen Jinzhu, CEO of Shanghai Mingliang Auto Service, a leading industry consultancy. “The Sealion 07 exemplifies how BYD’s cost advantage enables it to counteract such trade barriers in key export markets.”

Shenzhen-based BYD has yet to disclose the European pricing for the Sealion 07. On the mainland, the SUV—featuring a range of 450 kilometers—starts at 189,800 yuan (approximately US$26,272), with deliveries beginning in May.

According to a report last year from UBS analysts, BYD has a sustainable cost advantage of 25% over traditional European brands.

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Singles’ day promotions target overseas Chinese as China’s domestic demand slows

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After last year’s Singles’ Day shopping festival in China was dubbed the “quietest in history,” China’s e-commerce platforms focused on a new strategy this year.

For this year’s Singles’ Day event, major e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo invested heavily in expanding overseas markets, targeting the estimated 100 million Chinese living abroad with offers like discounts and free or low-cost shipping.

The central question, however, is not whether these efforts will succeed in the short term, but rather if this shift can help platforms grow their user bases as online sales growth in China reaches a bottleneck.

“Domestic consumption is quite weak right now, and every company is certainly considering new ways to drive growth for Singles’ Day,” said an executive at a leading online retailer, who requested anonymity. “The overseas market is widely seen as a promising source for additional growth,” he added in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Singles’ Day, a one-day sales event launched by Alibaba in 2009 as a celebration for singles, has since evolved into a month-long campaign with special offers and deep discounts, culminating on or around November 11.

This year, China aimed to revitalize its retail sector with the event. Total consumer goods sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, though high-end consumer spending remained stagnant. Cosmetics sales fell by 1%, while gold and silver jewelry sales declined by 3.1% year-on-year.

Last month, Alibaba’s Taobao launched a significant marketing campaign in Hong Kong and Taiwan, flooding subway stations with advertisements for “free shipping on orders over 99 yuan,” among other offers. According to the company, the campaign cost 2 billion New Taiwan dollars ($61.7 million) in Taiwan and 1 billion yuan ($138 million) in Hong Kong.

Following Alibaba’s move, JD.com announced it had invested 1.5 billion yuan to offer discounted product prices and cheaper shipping to Hong Kong shoppers. Bargain platform Pinduoduo took it a step further, offering free shipping via courier SF Express for Hong Kong shoppers, regardless of the item’s price. All products on these platforms are shipped from mainland China.

A spokesperson from Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce Group noted that since the overseas initiative launched in October, Taobao Hong Kong has achieved double-digit growth in both orders and gross merchandise value (GMV)—a metric that excludes canceled orders—on both a monthly and year-on-year basis.

The platforms are also targeting Chinese shoppers in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

This year, unlike in previous years, shoppers could combine online discounts with a subsidy program introduced by the Chinese government to boost domestic consumption, primarily for home appliances and household products. Analysts suggest these incentives will likely boost sales for JD.com, which is known for selling high-quality large appliances and offering after-sales services.

While JD.com has yet to release sales or GMV figures for home appliances during the shopping festival, it is expected to share its June-September results, along with Alibaba, later this week.

Last year, data provider Syntun estimated that total GMV on major e-commerce platforms grew by only 2.1% to 1.14 trillion yuan, falling short of the 2.9% growth forecast for 2022. Similarly, consultancy Bain predicted that Singles’ Day sales would reach 1.15 trillion yuan in 2023.

On Tuesday morning, Alibaba announced “strong GMV growth” and a “record number” of active shoppers for this year’s Singles’ Day event.

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