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China-Pakistan defense ties under threat from new U.S. sanctions

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Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese missile technology suppliers are seen as a potential risk to the longstanding defense ties between China and Pakistan.

The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions on the Beijing Machinery Manufacturing Industry Automation Research Institute, accusing the company of supplying equipment used to test missile engines in Pakistan. The sanctions were extended to three additional Chinese companies—Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Xi’an Longde Technology Development, and Universal Enterprise—along with Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment, owned by Chinese national Luo Dongmei. These entities are alleged to have transferred equipment regulated under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

Washington claims the sanctioned companies provided materials for Pakistan’s Hawk 3 and Ababil ballistic missile programs. The Hawk 3 is a medium-range missile capable of reaching targets up to 2,750 kilometers, posing a strategic threat to neighboring India and parts of the Middle East. The Ababil missile, with a range of 1,800 kilometers, serves a similar tactical purpose.

Part of broader U.S. strategy

Security analysts argue the sanctions are part of a broader U.S. effort to curb China’s rising influence rather than a direct action against Pakistan. “This is more about containing China’s growth than targeting Pakistan specifically,” said Syed Muhammad Ali, a security expert based in Islamabad, in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Ali emphasized that there is limited evidence linking China directly to Pakistan’s nuclear-capable missile programs. He noted that the majority of China-Pakistan defense cooperation centers on conventional weapons, aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s air force, army, and navy, rather than its missile development capabilities.

The Pakistani government quickly condemned the sanctions as politically motivated. “It is no secret that certain countries, while professing strict adherence to non-proliferation standards, selectively overlook licensing requirements for advanced military technologies when it suits their strategic interests,” said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.

Enduring China-Pakistan defense ties

China remains Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 44% of Pakistan’s major arms imports between 2000 and 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The two nations have a deep history of defense collaboration, including the joint development of the JF-17 fighter jet and the Al-Khalid main battle tank. Recent procurements include J-10C aircraft, Wing Loong II drones, and Hangor-class submarines.

While the sanctions may not immediately impact Pakistan’s missile programs, experts warn of long-term consequences for defense cooperation. “Pakistan has no other significant partner for missile development if China continues to face U.S. sanctions,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

Future challenges

The sanctions could complicate future defense transactions between China and Pakistan, as the dominance of the U.S. dollar may compel Chinese companies to comply with U.S. restrictions. Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior research fellow at King’s College London, pointed out that such financial dominance could make Chinese firms more cautious in future dealings with Pakistan.

Experts also warn that continued U.S. sanctions could strain Pakistan’s role in the broader U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry. “If China becomes less accessible due to these sanctions, Pakistan may be forced to look elsewhere for defense partners, a process that could take years,” Kugelman added. Pakistan’s past involvement in nuclear proliferation may further complicate its search for alternative suppliers.

Siddiqa noted that the sanctions are likely aimed at reassuring U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing Washington’s commitment to countering the perceived threat of missile proliferation in the area.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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