According to a survey conducted by Japan’s Nikkei Asia, South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper, and China’s Global Times, nearly 40% of Chinese business executives expect the country’s relations with the US to improve if Donald Trump returns to the White House. This optimism contrasts with the views of their counterparts in Japan and South Korea, who are less hopeful about a Trump presidency.

In the survey, 38% of Chinese executives predicted that US-China relations would improve significantly or slightly after Trump’s inauguration, while only 8% anticipated a deterioration. During Trump’s first term, China successfully negotiated tariff reductions with the US, leading many Chinese business leaders to believe they could achieve better outcomes under a Trump administration compared to the current Biden administration.

Expectation of rapprochement with neighbors

Chinese business leaders also foresee stronger ties with neighboring countries. Chen Fengying, former director of the World Economic Research Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, noted, “As the Trump administration implements its ‘America First’ policies, Japan and South Korea will feel they cannot rely on the US and will increase economic cooperation with China.”

In contrast, 83% of Japanese executives expect no change in their country’s relations with the US, while only 2% predict improvement and 15% anticipate a decline. South Korean executives were the most pessimistic, with 40% expecting relations to worsen and only 14% foreseeing improvement.

Kang Seoggu, director of the research department at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasized the need for South Korea to adapt to Trump’s trade policies: “South Korean companies should revamp their business structures, stabilize domestic politics as soon as possible, and adopt policies to support businesses.”

Global economic outlook

The survey also revealed differing views on the global economic outlook. In South Korea, 44% of respondents predicted a deteriorating global economy, while 22% expected growth. In contrast, 51% of Japanese executives and 43% of Chinese executives anticipated global economic expansion.

When asked about their own country’s economic prospects, nearly 80% of Japanese executives and 50% of Chinese executives expressed optimism. In South Korea, only 18% expected economic growth, while 42% predicted a downturn. These views may have been influenced by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief imposition of martial law and ongoing political instability.

The survey, conducted annually since 1995, gathered responses from 287 companies across China, Japan, and South Korea between December 2 and 18.

Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested and questioned by authorities on Wednesday in connection with an investigation into an alleged uprising. Yoon stated that he cooperated with what he called an illegal investigation “only to avoid violence.”

The arrest marks a historic development in South Korea, a country with a history of prosecuting and imprisoning former leaders. Yoon had been staying in his hilltop residence, guarded by personal security that thwarted an earlier arrest attempt, since lawmakers voted to remove him from office following his brief declaration of martial law on December 3.

Yoon agreed to appear for questioning early Wednesday after more than 3,000 police officers marched to his residence. “I decided to respond to the CIO’s investigation—even though it is an illegal investigation—to avoid unpleasant bloodshed,” Yoon said in a statement, referring to the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO), which is conducting the criminal probe.

A prosecutor accompanied Yoon from his home in Seoul’s upscale Beverly Hills area to the CIO’s austere offices. Yoon entered through a back door, avoiding the press. Authorities have 48 hours to question him, after which they must obtain permission to detain him for up to 20 days or release him.

However, a CIO official stated that Yoon refused to speak during questioning and declined to have his interviews videotaped. Yoon’s lawyers argued that the arrest warrant was illegal, claiming it was issued by a court outside the correct jurisdiction and that the investigative team lacked legal authority. A search warrant at Yoon’s residence, reviewed by Reuters, referred to him as the “ringleader of the uprising.”

Presidential bodyguards are present on the CIO floor where Yoon is being questioned, but he will likely be held at the Seoul Detention Centre, where other high-profile figures, such as former President Park Geun-hye and Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y. Lee, have also been detained.

Yoon’s declaration of martial law shocked South Koreans, destabilizing Asia’s fourth-largest economy and triggering unprecedented political turmoil in one of Washington’s key regional security partners. Lawmakers voted to impeach him shortly afterward on December 14.

Separate from the criminal investigation, the Constitutional Court is debating whether to uphold parliament’s impeachment decision, which would permanently remove Yoon from office, or restore his presidential powers.

A White House National Security Council spokesperson stated that the United States would continue to work with the South Korean government and appreciated efforts by the government and citizens to “act in accordance with the Constitution.” Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s top government spokesman, said Tokyo was monitoring developments in South Korea with “special and serious interest.”

The arrest attempt, which began before dawn, captivated the nation as hundreds of thousands tuned into live broadcasts showing busloads of police arriving near the presidential residence. Officers pushed past Yoon’s supporters and marched toward the gates of the compound carrying ladders and wire cutters.

Crowds of protesters gathered outside the CIO offices, waving South Korean and American flags and carrying posters with the slogan “Stop the Steal,” referencing Yoon’s unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud. This slogan, familiar from the US elections, drew parallels between Yoon’s case and that of former US President Donald Trump, who has also claimed voter fraud contributed to his 2020 election defeat.

Kim Woo-sub, a 70-year-old retiree protesting Yoon’s arrest, said, “I still have great expectations for Trump to support our president. Election fraud is their common ground, but at the same time, the US needs South Korea to fight China.”

Polls indicate that a majority of South Koreans disapprove of Yoon’s declaration of martial law and support his impeachment. However, the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP) has seen a slight revival in recent weeks. In the latest Realmeter poll, support for the PPP stood at 40.8%, while the main opposition Democratic Party garnered 42.2% support.

The Wakhan Corridor is a mountainous region in the northeast of Afghanistan that plays an important role in the geostrategy of the region. Wakhan is important for China, Pakistan and Afghanistan for various reasons, including its unique location and natural features.

The importance of Wakhan for Afghanistan

The Wakhan Corridor is a strategic area that plays an important role in controlling military and trade routes. Access to the corridor helps the military power and trade system. Afghanistan is connected to China only through the Wakhan route. China is currently one of the world’s great powers in the economic sector. Afghanistan’s neighborhood with that country is influential in the development of Afghanistan’s trade and economy.

The establishment of communication and commercial infrastructure in this region will help in the economic development of Afghanistan, especially in the northeastern regions. In the past, the Silk Road was also connected to China through the Wakhan Corridor.

Due to its location on the border of China and Pakistan, this corridor can be a safe route for extremist groups, rebels and smugglers. Access to Wakhan is a must for Afghanistan in order to prevent the presence of these groups and their activities.

The importance of Wakhan for China

The Wakhan Corridor provides the basis for China’s access to Central Asian countries. China is an export country and needs the market of Central Asian countries for its commercial goods.

In addition, Wakhan is located in the neighborhood of China’s “Xinjiang” province in terms of geographical location. The presence of extremist groups in this region is unacceptable for Beijing. China does not lose control of this region by using its penetration tools.

On the other hand, China seeks to expand the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), which the Wakhan Corridor provides the basis for this initiative. The Wakhan Corridor is a good area for China to expand its economic partnership with neighboring countries in this region.

The importance of Wakhan for Pakistan

Pakistan’s rivalry with India has forced Pakistan to increase its influence on Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Due to the sensitive geography of Wakhan, this region provides a favorable environment for Pakistan to reach the trade markets of Central Asian countries.

Pakistan is also trying to strengthen its relationship with China through joint economic and trade projects. Therefore, any kind of access of Pakistan to this region will affect the economic development of this country.

Due to its rivalry with India, Pakistan is worried about the presence of insurgent groups from Afghanistan, especially in the Wakhan region.

Besides this, the Wakhan Corridor reduces the distance between Pakistan and Central Asian countries to 13km and is one of the important transit passages for Pakistan.

Central Asian republics with oil and gas resources have attracted Pakistan’s attention. On the other hand, Pakistani officials also believe that the Wakhan Corridor, along with access to the resources of Central Asian countries, provides work for thousands of citizens of that country.

Pakistani officials also believe that the increase in trade through the Wakhan Corridor to Gwadar port will increase the relations between Pakistan, China and especially the countries of Central Asia.

Considering the importance of the Wakhan Corridor for Pakistan, will the Taliban trade this area with Pakistan?

Pakistan has been eyeing the Wakhan region for a long time. Pakistan’s plans against Afghanistan have been hostile and focused on that country’s interests. Therefore, it has always supported rebel and extremist groups to secure its interests.

Pakistan, which cooperated with the US in overthrowing the Taliban regime, behind the scenes provided a safe haven to the Taliban leaders so that it could use them at the right time.

After many years of presence in Afghanistan, the US had finally decided to withdraw its soldiers from Afghanistan. This American decision was a green light for Pakistan to expand its support to the Taliban in order to provide the ground for direct negotiations between the Taliban and the United States.

On the back of all this support, Pakistan also achieved its goals in addition to being paid by America. One of Pakistan’s goals is instability in Afghanistan and the establishment of a system aligned with the interests of that country. The Taliban, who owe Pakistan’s support, have been ready for any kind of access by this country to Afghanistan, except for some of their figures.

Although reliable sources are not available in this case, it is widely believed that the Taliban have promised to provide the Wakhan Corridor to Pakistan. Although after the Taliban came to power, Pakistan has started building military bases on the Wakhan route, but due to several reasons, this will be done gradually.

Here are some points

First

Differences between the members of the Taliban leadership (Kabul and Kandahar): Those Taliban leaders who are present in Kabul played a key role in the negotiations with the US and have also made promises to the parties involved.

Undoubtedly, these promises were made with lasting consultations of Pakistan. It is possible that Pakistan took the Wakhan Corridor from the Taliban in return for those promises. But it is the leader of the Taliban and a group of traditional Taliban from Kandahar who make the main decisions within the Taliban, not those who played a role in the negotiations with America.

The Kandahar group turned its back on all the things that the Taliban members had promised during the negotiations with the Americans and insisted on implementing the predetermined policy. This may be one of the reasons why Pakistan does not have full access to the Wakhan Corridor.

Second

Being judged: During the war with America, the Taliban have motivated their forces to liberate the country from occupation. Therefore, if the Taliban officially and continuously hand over the Wakhan Corridor, they may face opposition from their own people. Therefore, the Taliban use caution in this regard.

Third

Guarantee for survival in power: The Taliban want the survival of their regime from Pakistan in exchange for handing over the Wakhan Corridor. According to the experience of 2001, the Taliban know that if they give in to Pakistan’s demand without guarantees, Pakistan may cooperate in dismantling their regime.

Fourth

The judgment of history: It is too late and the Taliban have been judged by history. There are narrations that Pakistan asked the Taliban in the previous round to recognize the Durand Line as an official border, but Mullah Mohammad Omar, the leader of the Taliban at that time, had rejected this request of Pakistan. This is another challenge that has prevented the Taliban from taking action.

On the other hand, forced deportation of immigrants, carrying out military attacks on the border points of Afghanistan, spreading differences between the leadership members of this group and inciting them against each other, hosting Taliban opponents and expressing various opinions and holding regional conferences such as the meeting of Islamic countries in Pakistan can be considered as levers of pressure on some Taliban leaders who are not aligned with the interests of Pakistan.

But sometimes these positions of Pakistan are to change the public opinion so that it can cover the progress of that country in the Wakhan region and put the Taliban in opposition to that country. As John Achakzai, the former Minister of Information of Balochistan province of Pakistan, warned Afghanistan on March 20 on his X page: “If the attacks against Pakistani troops from Afghanistan continue, Pakistan will immediately attack Afghanistan and seize the Wakhan Corridor.” His statements indicate that Pakistani soldiers are present in some areas of Wakhan.

Finally, the Wakhan Corridor is a strategic area that connects several countries. This corridor is actually a part of the geography of Afghanistan, but it is also very important for Pakistan and China.

Pakistan has tried hard to access the corridor and has achieved some success – but officially, no document, at least so far, has been published in the media to confirm the transfer of that region to Pakistan.

But Pakistani forces are building military bases. Of course, Pakistan, China and Central Asian countries are aligned and agree with this goal. Sooner or later, the Taliban will give in to Pakistan’s demand. For the Taliban, handing over and keeping Wakhan will be a choice between survival and the overthrow of this group.