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Cracks appear in the CDU’s ‘firewall’ against Germany’s far-right AfD

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Three former high-ranking politicians and officials from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party have said it is time for conservatives to develop a new strategy for dealing with the AfD, seriously intensifying the internal debate over the “firewall” strategy.

The “firewall” (Brandmauer) means that mainstream German parties refuse to form coalitions with “radical” parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at the federal and state levels or to pass laws with their help.

Although this firewall has significant cracks at the local level, especially in the eastern states, Merz has largely adhered to this policy since taking office.

German officials have faced harsh criticism, including from members of the Trump administration. In Munich last February, Elon Musk joined a conversation with US Vice President JD Vance and AfD leader Alice Weidel, where Vance criticized the firewall as “a tool to disenfranchise voters.”

Speaking to Stern magazine last week, conservative figures opened a debate on the CDU/CSU bloc’s stance toward the AfD.

“The higher the firewall, the stronger the AfD becomes,” said historian and former Merz advisor Andreas Rödder. According to Rödder, conservatives should be “willing to engage in dialogue” with the AfD, provided the party agrees to certain conditions and abandons its “extremist” positions.

Former CSU General Secretary and former Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg argues that excluding the AfD only serves to strengthen it, stating, “It is not possible to demystify through boycotting.”

The main argument of conservatives advocating for a rethink of the firewall strategy can be summarized as follows: allowing AfD politicians to oppose the system from the outside “without engaging in the complex compromises inherent to politics” does nothing but strengthen the party.

At the same time, the conservatives’ refusal to cooperate with the AfD forces the CDU/CSU to govern with left-wing parties, providing the far-right with more material for attacks.

The situation is further complicated as the AfD increasingly emerges as the leading party in polls. Peter Tauber, Angela Merkel’s former general secretary, also believes that establishing a “new relationship” with the AfD is “necessary from a state policy perspective.” Stern notes that a previously unknown feeling has emerged within the CDU/CSU bloc: the fear of a “split.”

Researchers from the Berlin Science Center and Harvard University evaluated a total of 11,053 district and municipal council meetings between 2019 and 2024. The result: nearly one-fifth (19%) of AfD motions received approval from the CDU and other “democratic” parties.

These motions concerned personnel issues, substantive proposals, and budgets. “Apparently, the AfD has long been in power in local governments as well,” comments Stern.

Two Mondays ago, Udo Witschas, the CDU district chairman in Bautzen, Saxony, caused a scandal in the district council. He was asked to comment on a photograph taken during a motorcycle trip with Karsten Hilse, an AfD district council member and Member of the Federal Parliament who is under surveillance by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Witschas had not hidden the photo; on the contrary, he had hung it in his office and shared it online. Witschas said he could not understand the excitement. According to him, Hilse was not “far-right.” In his view, there is not a single “right-wing, left-wing, or extremist” person in the district council.

AfD politicians are naturally pleased with the conservatives’ concerns. Bernd Baumann, the AfD’s parliamentary group leader, told POLITICO Bulletin that the CDU is in a “self-inflicted existential crisis.”

“First, it campaigns with right-wing positions taken from the AfD. After being elected, it builds a firewall against the AfD. In coalition with the SPD, it implements the exact opposite of its election promises,” Baumann said.

Co-chairwoman Weidel is also certain that the CDU cannot continue on this path. “The Union will no longer be able to reject us. I see a changed CDU after the short-lived Merz era as a potential partner,” Weidel told Stern.

Historian Rödder wants the CDU to finally impose “its own game” on the AfD while it still has the strength. In this context, he says the party should signal a “readiness for conditional dialogue” to the AfD.

“If the AfD respects the red lines and clearly distances itself from far-right positions and figures, seeking dialogue and conducting a tough debate on the matter is a valuable democratic endeavor. Strategically, it is also wiser to throw the fire of the directional debate at the AfD,” says Rödder.

According to the historian, only in this way can the AfD be forced to decide “which direction it wants to go: extremist or democratic?”

On the other hand, a large part of the CDU leadership is still distancing itself from Rödder’s ideas, fearing that his theses will be the beginning of the end for the “firewall.”

Leading Christian Democrats vehemently oppose the impression that the party is looking for a way to politically utilize a calculated right-wing majority.

CDU deputy chairwoman Karin Prien warns, “The AfD is the exact opposite of the middle class [bürgerlich].” Therefore, there can be no middle-class majority with the AfD.

Kiel’s state premier, Daniel Günther, says, “We have a clear stance against the AfD, and that will not change. Anyone who takes democratic responsibility seriously cannot do business with a party that undermines our institutions and trust in the state.”

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also reaffirmed the firewall against the AfD.

Following a closed-door CDU meeting in Berlin, Merz said that the two parties differ not in details but in “fundamental political beliefs” and suggested that the AfD wants to destroy the CDU.

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Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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