The Wakhan Corridor is a mountainous region in the northeast of Afghanistan that plays an important role in the geostrategy of the region. Wakhan is important for China, Pakistan and Afghanistan for various reasons, including its unique location and natural features.

The importance of Wakhan for Afghanistan

The Wakhan Corridor is a strategic area that plays an important role in controlling military and trade routes. Access to the corridor helps the military power and trade system. Afghanistan is connected to China only through the Wakhan route. China is currently one of the world’s great powers in the economic sector. Afghanistan’s neighborhood with that country is influential in the development of Afghanistan’s trade and economy.

The establishment of communication and commercial infrastructure in this region will help in the economic development of Afghanistan, especially in the northeastern regions. In the past, the Silk Road was also connected to China through the Wakhan Corridor.

Due to its location on the border of China and Pakistan, this corridor can be a safe route for extremist groups, rebels and smugglers. Access to Wakhan is a must for Afghanistan in order to prevent the presence of these groups and their activities.

The importance of Wakhan for China

The Wakhan Corridor provides the basis for China’s access to Central Asian countries. China is an export country and needs the market of Central Asian countries for its commercial goods.

In addition, Wakhan is located in the neighborhood of China’s “Xinjiang” province in terms of geographical location. The presence of extremist groups in this region is unacceptable for Beijing. China does not lose control of this region by using its penetration tools.

On the other hand, China seeks to expand the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), which the Wakhan Corridor provides the basis for this initiative. The Wakhan Corridor is a good area for China to expand its economic partnership with neighboring countries in this region.

The importance of Wakhan for Pakistan

Pakistan’s rivalry with India has forced Pakistan to increase its influence on Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Due to the sensitive geography of Wakhan, this region provides a favorable environment for Pakistan to reach the trade markets of Central Asian countries.

Pakistan is also trying to strengthen its relationship with China through joint economic and trade projects. Therefore, any kind of access of Pakistan to this region will affect the economic development of this country.

Due to its rivalry with India, Pakistan is worried about the presence of insurgent groups from Afghanistan, especially in the Wakhan region.

Besides this, the Wakhan Corridor reduces the distance between Pakistan and Central Asian countries to 13km and is one of the important transit passages for Pakistan.

Central Asian republics with oil and gas resources have attracted Pakistan’s attention. On the other hand, Pakistani officials also believe that the Wakhan Corridor, along with access to the resources of Central Asian countries, provides work for thousands of citizens of that country.

Pakistani officials also believe that the increase in trade through the Wakhan Corridor to Gwadar port will increase the relations between Pakistan, China and especially the countries of Central Asia.

Considering the importance of the Wakhan Corridor for Pakistan, will the Taliban trade this area with Pakistan?

Pakistan has been eyeing the Wakhan region for a long time. Pakistan’s plans against Afghanistan have been hostile and focused on that country’s interests. Therefore, it has always supported rebel and extremist groups to secure its interests.

Pakistan, which cooperated with the US in overthrowing the Taliban regime, behind the scenes provided a safe haven to the Taliban leaders so that it could use them at the right time.

After many years of presence in Afghanistan, the US had finally decided to withdraw its soldiers from Afghanistan. This American decision was a green light for Pakistan to expand its support to the Taliban in order to provide the ground for direct negotiations between the Taliban and the United States.

On the back of all this support, Pakistan also achieved its goals in addition to being paid by America. One of Pakistan’s goals is instability in Afghanistan and the establishment of a system aligned with the interests of that country. The Taliban, who owe Pakistan’s support, have been ready for any kind of access by this country to Afghanistan, except for some of their figures.

Although reliable sources are not available in this case, it is widely believed that the Taliban have promised to provide the Wakhan Corridor to Pakistan. Although after the Taliban came to power, Pakistan has started building military bases on the Wakhan route, but due to several reasons, this will be done gradually.

Here are some points

First

Differences between the members of the Taliban leadership (Kabul and Kandahar): Those Taliban leaders who are present in Kabul played a key role in the negotiations with the US and have also made promises to the parties involved.

Undoubtedly, these promises were made with lasting consultations of Pakistan. It is possible that Pakistan took the Wakhan Corridor from the Taliban in return for those promises. But it is the leader of the Taliban and a group of traditional Taliban from Kandahar who make the main decisions within the Taliban, not those who played a role in the negotiations with America.

The Kandahar group turned its back on all the things that the Taliban members had promised during the negotiations with the Americans and insisted on implementing the predetermined policy. This may be one of the reasons why Pakistan does not have full access to the Wakhan Corridor.

Second

Being judged: During the war with America, the Taliban have motivated their forces to liberate the country from occupation. Therefore, if the Taliban officially and continuously hand over the Wakhan Corridor, they may face opposition from their own people. Therefore, the Taliban use caution in this regard.

Third

Guarantee for survival in power: The Taliban want the survival of their regime from Pakistan in exchange for handing over the Wakhan Corridor. According to the experience of 2001, the Taliban know that if they give in to Pakistan’s demand without guarantees, Pakistan may cooperate in dismantling their regime.

Fourth

The judgment of history: It is too late and the Taliban have been judged by history. There are narrations that Pakistan asked the Taliban in the previous round to recognize the Durand Line as an official border, but Mullah Mohammad Omar, the leader of the Taliban at that time, had rejected this request of Pakistan. This is another challenge that has prevented the Taliban from taking action.

On the other hand, forced deportation of immigrants, carrying out military attacks on the border points of Afghanistan, spreading differences between the leadership members of this group and inciting them against each other, hosting Taliban opponents and expressing various opinions and holding regional conferences such as the meeting of Islamic countries in Pakistan can be considered as levers of pressure on some Taliban leaders who are not aligned with the interests of Pakistan.

But sometimes these positions of Pakistan are to change the public opinion so that it can cover the progress of that country in the Wakhan region and put the Taliban in opposition to that country. As John Achakzai, the former Minister of Information of Balochistan province of Pakistan, warned Afghanistan on March 20 on his X page: “If the attacks against Pakistani troops from Afghanistan continue, Pakistan will immediately attack Afghanistan and seize the Wakhan Corridor.” His statements indicate that Pakistani soldiers are present in some areas of Wakhan.

Finally, the Wakhan Corridor is a strategic area that connects several countries. This corridor is actually a part of the geography of Afghanistan, but it is also very important for Pakistan and China.

Pakistan has tried hard to access the corridor and has achieved some success – but officially, no document, at least so far, has been published in the media to confirm the transfer of that region to Pakistan.

But Pakistani forces are building military bases. Of course, Pakistan, China and Central Asian countries are aligned and agree with this goal. Sooner or later, the Taliban will give in to Pakistan’s demand. For the Taliban, handing over and keeping Wakhan will be a choice between survival and the overthrow of this group.

China is increasing export controls on Apple and other US technology companies, hampering their efforts to expand production in Southeast Asia and India, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Nikkei Asia.

The tighter customs controls are linked to dual-use technology export regulations introduced by Beijing in early December. These measures have caused delays of days or even weeks in shipments of manufacturing equipment and supplies to Vietnam and India. Dual-use refers to products or technologies that can be used for both military and commercial applications.

The technology supply chain has been feeling the heat of heightened Washington-Beijing tensions in recent weeks. On Monday, the Biden administration launched a new round of controls to block China’s access to advanced artificial intelligence chips. This move came just over a month after it added more than 140 Chinese organizations to its trade blacklist in December. In retaliation, China banned exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other super hard materials to the US.

“Not only Apple, but also other American customers’ exports of materials and equipment are affected,” said an executive of an Apple supplier. “Customs controls are much tighter these days, which is really affecting expansion programs outside China,” he added.

A person familiar with the situation, who works for another US company, noted, “What bothers us even more is that some products and tools are not even on the dual-use list but are being subjected to stricter scrutiny at customs just because they have similar HS codes. Even some speed testing equipment for smartphones, [Chinese customs] can claim that it might be related to military use.”

Sources said the supply chain began to encounter isolated cases in August last year when Chinese customs held up exports of manufacturing equipment bound for Southeast Asia or India for days without providing a specific reason. The situation has escalated since early December, with Chinese customs officials citing new export controls as justification for stricter inspections, according to two people.

New routes: India and Southeast Asia

American companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, HP, and Dell have been aggressively expanding their production capacity in Southeast Asia and India over the past five to six years. Although they have already shifted a certain amount of capacity, these companies still rely on materials and equipment exported from China to build their new production lines outside China.

“A lot of materials are sourced from China, and we have become accustomed to cheaper equipment made in this country. It takes time and extra costs to find and verify new suppliers,” said a third person involved. “Even if only one piece of equipment is missing, we cannot set up production lines.”

China has listed more than 160 pages of dual-use products and technologies, including raw materials and metals commonly used in technology supply chains, such as tungsten, graphite, magnesium, and aluminum alloys. The list also includes some equipment for testing and manufacturing, such as analog-to-digital converters that can operate at temperatures ranging from 125°C to -54°C, and gyroscope test tools commonly used in the manufacture of electronic devices.

Gallium and graphite are essential for chipmaking and high-voltage applications such as electric vehicles and power systems. In its 2021 supply chain review, the Biden administration identified these as strategic materials that are alarmingly dependent on Chinese supply.

Chiu Shih-fang, a technology supply chain analyst, said even Chinese companies face similarly stricter export scrutiny under the new supply chain controls.

“From my observations, Trump’s tariff war threats and the deterioration in the Chinese economy are the main factors behind the increase in Chinese tariff controls,” Chiu told Nikkei Asia. “This is a comprehensive measure to strengthen [China’s] policy to slow down the pace at which companies are moving away from China. If such events continue, it will have an impact on companies’ diversification plans,” he said.

China experienced robust export growth in December as businesses expedited orders in anticipation of higher tariffs expected to be imposed after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office next week.

According to data released by the country’s customs office on Monday, total overseas shipments expanded for the ninth consecutive month, rising 10.7% year-on-year in dollar terms. This growth rate exceeded November’s 6.7% increase and surpassed the 7.3% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Exports to the U.S. increased by 15.6% year-on-year, reaching their highest level since September 2022. Similarly, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc surged 18.9% to a record high, indicating that Chinese exporters might be rerouting U.S.-bound goods through third countries to evade tariffs.

The growth in outbound shipments spanned diverse products, including high-tech goods such as computing equipment and integrated circuits, as well as garments and textiles. Exports of steel, automobiles, and household appliances also saw a year-on-year increase of more than 10%.

December saw dollar-denominated imports rise by 1.0% year-on-year, reversing the decline recorded in the first two months of the quarter. This figure exceeded the 1.5% decline anticipated by Reuters. Consequently, China’s trade surplus expanded to $104.8 billion, up from $97.44 billion in November.

High-tech products led the import growth, climbing 12.8% from December 2023. This increase was likely driven by Chinese firms stockpiling advanced chips and electronic materials from U.S. suppliers amid concerns about potential trade restrictions under the Trump administration.

For the full year 2024, exports rose 5.9% to $3.58 trillion, while imports increased by 1.1% to $2.59 trillion, resulting in a record trade surplus of $992 billion.

At a press conference, Wang Lingjun, Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs, addressed concerns about the widening export-import gap and potential trade protectionism. “Some countries abuse export controls and restrict exports to China. We want to import more, but you don’t allow it, and then you are overly concerned about the trade surplus. This is a contradiction in itself,” he remarked.

Looking ahead, Lv Daliang, a spokesman for the customs office, expressed optimism about import growth in 2025, citing “ample room for growth.” Despite external challenges, Lv remained confident in the resilience and vitality of China’s exports.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 19.3% increase in vehicle exports for 2024. Internal combustion engine vehicles constituted 78% of shipments, while new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include electric and hybrid models, made up the remainder. NEV exports grew 6.7%, lagging behind the 23.5% growth for conventional vehicles. This discrepancy partly reflects new restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by certain governments.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, warned that overall exports might weaken in 2025 if Trump’s tariff threats materialize. However, Huang noted that import volumes could recover in the short term as increased fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities.

American importers have accelerated their purchases of Chinese goods in recent months, preparing for potential trade barriers. Trump, who previously pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports during his campaign, announced plans to implement an additional 10% tariff on his first day in office.

Strong exports remain a bright spot for China’s economy, which continues to struggle with a property market crisis and deflationary pressures. The country’s consumer inflation rate fell to a nine-month low in December. Beijing began implementing stimulus measures in September to counteract the economic downturn, with their effects expected to unfold in the coming months.

China is set to release its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) statistics on Friday.