Poland will propose a maritime policing programme in the Baltic Sea, modeled after NATO’s air surveillance missions, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Wednesday.

In a statement from Warsaw, Tusk described the plan as a “joint initiative of Baltic Sea countries” that share concerns over threats from Russia.

Tusk is set to attend a Baltic summit of Nordic and Baltic leaders in Sweden, where discussions will focus on regional security, transatlantic relations, and European support for Ukraine.

Baltic and Nordic leaders meet amid growing geopolitical tensions

The summit in Harpsund comes at a pivotal time, as Nordic and Baltic countries face increasing uncertainty. Last week, a high-speed fiber-optic cable connecting Finland and Germany was severed, and a key link between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged, raising concerns about potential external interference.

Prime ministers from the Baltic and Nordic nations, along with Poland’s Donald Tusk, accepted an invitation from Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss geopolitical challenges ahead of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

“We will discuss the defense of Ukraine, our own countries, and a shared security strategy in an increasingly uncertain world,” Kristersson stated in a recorded speech last week.

Europe urged to strengthen security autonomy

At the summit, Kristersson highlighted Europe’s need for greater security autonomy. “When the wind is blowing hard in the world, it’s crucial to stay open-minded and well-prepared,” he said during a press conference on Tuesday (26 November).

Kristersson revealed that during his recent meeting with Trump, they discussed European security, particularly support for Ukraine and mutual cooperation. He emphasized that Italy, the UK, France, and Germany all agree on the importance of Europe assuming more responsibility for its security.

“The United States cannot be expected to cover European NATO defence costs in the long term,” Kristersson added.

Submarine communications cable sabotage suspected

The summit is particularly timely following last week’s damage to two undersea cables—one connecting Finland and Germany and another linking Sweden and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea. Both incidents occurred in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, sparking regional security concerns.

Media reports suggest the damage may have been caused by a Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, which is now under the surveillance of the Danish navy in the Kattegat Strait.

In response, Finland and Sweden announced plans to form a joint investigation team, and Swedish prosecutors launched a preliminary probe into potential sabotage. However, Swedish officials remain cautious, with Kristersson stating, “We are not making accusations or conducting a criminal investigation at this stage.”

The Swedish government has contacted Chinese authorities regarding the ship and expressed willingness to allow the vessel into Swedish waters for further investigation.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, which marks the end of 14 months of conflict, officially came into effect this morning. Lebanese civilians, previously displaced by Israeli airstrikes and ground offensives, have begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, despite warnings from Israeli officials to delay their return.

The ceasefire, announced by U.S. President Joe Biden following its approval by both the Lebanese and Israeli governments, became effective at 5:00 AM today.

President Joe Biden stated that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy along Lebanon’s southern border within 60 days to assume control of the region. The agreement mandates the disarmament of Hezbollah fighters in this area and their relocation to regions north of the Litani River. During this period, Israeli forces are expected to gradually withdraw.

Biden also clarified that no American troops will be stationed in Lebanon during this process, emphasizing that the U.S. and France played key roles in achieving this agreement through prolonged diplomatic efforts. An international coalition, spearheaded by the U.S. and France, will oversee the implementation of the ceasefire.

Additionally, displaced Lebanese civilians and Jewish settlers from northern Israel will be allowed to return to their homes under the terms of the agreement.

Under the terms of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the sale and production of arms in Lebanon will be strictly controlled by the Lebanese government to prevent the rearmament of groups like Hezbollah.

Colonel Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesperson, urged Lebanese civilians to refrain from returning to southern villages just yet, citing ongoing Israeli military presence. He advised:

“For your safety and that of your family, avoid traveling to areas near Israeli military positions or the evacuated villages until further notice. The Israeli army will announce a safe return date for civilians.”

Despite these warnings, Reuters reported a noticeable movement of displaced families heading south in vehicles as they return to their homes.

The conflict escalated on October 7, following Hamas’s attack on southern Israel, prompting Hezbollah to launch rocket and drone strikes into northern Israel. These attacks forced approximately 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes. While the ceasefire signals a halt in hostilities, the timeline for the return of Israeli evacuees remains unclear.

Reports indicate that between 5,000 and 10,000 Lebanese troops will be stationed in the area from the Israeli-Lebanese border to the Litani River. Another media source revealed an undisclosed U.S. commitment, which allegedly grants Israel the right to retaliate if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire terms.

Despite the assassination of senior Hezbollah leaders and the bombing in violation of the laws of war, Israel has failed to achieve its main objectives on the Lebanese front. Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel have not been prevented, nor have the residents of the north returned to their homes. Israel’s tactical successes on the ground were insufficient to achieve its strategic goals, forcing it to agree to a ceasefire.

Ahead of the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hezbollah, which is expected within hours, both parties have escalated their attacks. Opposition to the ceasefire from Israel’s far-right ministers has raised concerns that the agreement could be cancelled at the last minute.

The ceasefire agreement is anticipated to be announced by the U.S. and France today, according to several news agencies citing Lebanese, U.S., and Israeli officials. Both the Israeli and Lebanese governments are scheduled to meet beforehand to discuss the terms of the ceasefire.

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that at least twenty-two people were killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon yesterday. Early this morning, Israel bombed southern Lebanon and targeted buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, claiming to have killed a senior Hezbollah commander.

Hezbollah has also intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern regions. Educational activities in some areas have been suspended, and authorities announced new measures in response to the ongoing assaults.

Despite positive signals from Lebanon and the U.S., internal opposition within Israel suggests the ceasefire agreement could face last-minute hurdles. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir described the deal as a “big mistake” and a “historic missed opportunity to eliminate Hezbollah.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented, “There is no agreement, and if it is signed, it will be worth no more than a signed piece of paper. We have dismantled Hezbollah and will continue to dismantle it.”

Criticism is not limited to far-right ministers. Members of parliament from Netanyahu’s Likud party, opposition leaders, and northern Israeli mayors have also voiced disapproval. Avi Dichter, a Likud party member and security cabinet member, stated on social media that he lacked sufficient details to support the ceasefire, adding that he would oppose it if it mirrored UNSC Resolution 1701.

David Azoulay, mayor of Metula, referred to the ceasefire as a “surrender deal” during an interview on Channel 12 television. Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, criticized the agreement on social media, warning that it “accelerates the repetition of the 7 October attack in the north.” Stern remarked, “I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender.”

Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity Party, urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to publish the full details of the agreement. Similarly, Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Israel Our Home party, labeled the deal as “terrible for Israel.”

The proposed ceasefire includes: Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within days. Beirut will deploy troops along the border, and Hezbollah fighters will retreat north of the Litani River and a U.S.-led committee will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation.

The main sticking point remains Israel’s claimed “right to self-defense.” Prime Minister Netanyahu insisted the agreement guarantee Israel’s freedom to act against Lebanon if the ceasefire is not upheld. Lebanon has firmly rejected this demand.

According to The National, a compromise formula has been proposed to address this issue: Israel would present grievances to the international committee monitoring the ceasefire, which would then relay them to the Lebanese army and UNIFIL. A deadline would be set for addressing these grievances before Israel could take further action. This proposal is still under discussion.

Notably, the agreement does not establish a buffer zone, a key objective of Israel’s ground offensive. The buffer zone was intended to keep northern Israel out of Hezbollah’s reach. Additionally, there is no clear plan for the tens of thousands of residents who fled their homes in northern Israel after 7 October.

Despite Israel’s tactical successes, including the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and the ground invasion, it has not achieved its primary war aims in Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump, set to take office in January, has urged Netanyahu to conclude the conflict before his inauguration. Meanwhile, the Israeli army’s morale is reportedly low due to heavy casualties and ongoing debates over conscription. Observers note that the military’s reluctance to continue fighting further complicates Israel’s strategic position.