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‘Europe can be a bridge between the Global South and the US’

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Prof. Franco Bruni, the President of Italian Institute for International Political Studies spoke to Harici: “I think Europe could be helpful because by  gaining some strategic autonomy from the United States, we could pay special attention to the global South and get the global South to make a bridge with us and, through us, with the Americans also.”

Professor Franco Bruni, President of ISPI, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, one of the world’s leading think tanks in the field of international relations and economics founded in Italy in 1934, discussed critical issues such as the current dynamics of the global economy, Trump’s challenges, the challenges facing Europe, the Draghi report and the injustices of representation in international organisations.

Opening the doors of ISPI to Harici, Professor Bruni gave a comprehensive overview of his views on many topics such as conflicts within the European Union, the role of BRICS and the clash of global economic blocs.

Professor Bruni says that Europe can bridge the gap between the Global South and the Global North. Ukraine, on the other hand, could be given territory in Russian-populated areas in order to make Putin feel that he has won a victory in order to sit at the negotiating table. Here is the full interview:

Please tell me what do you mean by your opinion that Europe could be a bridge between the Global South and the Global. Can you open up this?

I think that the world can be thought of as divided into three really sort of independent blocks. One is the West, the other is China, which makes its role part, and the rest is the Global South. Formally, the Global South includes China, but that’s just formally because the leader of the Global South is India really, and I don’t think their relationship with China is that perfect. Moreover, Russia is in the middle and it’s clearly with China. So, you have China and Russia on one side, the Global South, which is also South because China is also north, and then you have the West.

And we don’t find a way to really multilateralization of the world have a governance which pays full respect to all sides. So, we have to break the game and start again in a way after this disastrous world is coming out. And I think Europe could be helpful because by  gaining some strategic autonomy from the United States, we could pay special attention to the global South and get the global South to make a bridge with us and, through us, with the Americans also; and in a sense, also re-approaching diplomatically China. I’m not talking about Russia because Russia is out of, in this moment, completely out of any discourse. I mean, it’s a country which is dying by this war.

I look at China, not at Russia. This is what Europe could do: to diplomatically be very near to India, very near to countries like Egypt. Clearly I’m not talking about Türkiye because Türkiye, in a way, I think it’s part of Europe, but certainly, if you keep Türkiye as an independent country from Europe, Türkiye is one of our basic relationships that we must exploit in order to have a bridge with the South. But countries like Egypt, like all the Arab states, South America—I mean, these are crucial countries that constitute a group which has nothing really in common except one very important thing, which is the desire to participate in the world in an independent way without being with one block or the other block. This is a very precious quality, and we should sort of exploit it to help the world to get a truly multilateral governance. It’s going to be extremely difficult, and we can only do this piece by piece, year by year, but the strategy must be there.

How do you think Europe can be independent from the US? Because now in your speech again, you referred to that, and it is one of my questions. What do you think about the discussions about European autonomy? Is it really possible for Europe to be independent, have its own autonomy? Can Europe do something without the consent of the US?

Certainly, I think this is positive, and we did many things. Look, for instance, in trade, we are fully independent. We are able to combat a trade war. We have an antitrust system in Europe that prevents American companies from exaggerating in exploiting monopolistic powers in Europe. So, we have several fields where we have our autonomy.

Obviously, what I mean is strategic autonomy. It doesn’t mean to break the alliances. The important thing is that the alliances are true alliances so that we decide together, and we have full reciprocal respect. But this requires that Europe is much more united. As soon as Europe is able to express its strategy in a uniform and united way, immediately the alliance with the United States will become much more balanced. So, we can be allied, but having lots of autonomy also in proposing to the US different ways of action and speaking at the same level.

The problem is that now you have the US on one side, which is one big thing, and in Europe, you have these little governments and states that fight one against the other—France against Germany. And this is the problem. So, we’re not talking about autonomy in an aggressive way or saying we are going to be outside. For instance, we can have a full alliance in terms of defense, like your country has. By the way, you are in the NATO system, so Türkiye is in the NATO system, but you have a lot of autonomy, strategic autonomy, and you exploit it very well. So, we can have strong alliances with the United States in many fields, but be autonomous enough to contribute to world diplomacy in an autonomous way.

Then my other question is also about the US and President Trump and his threats to Europe about the trade tariffs. Do you think it will work? Whenever he wants to teach a country something, he’s using his trade stick.

It’s more a strategic weapon. But I don’t think he will exert this or put the tariffs at the level he is threatening to do. I don’t think, especially with Europe, simply because the United States is full of large firms, important firms, powerful businessmen, etc., that do not like this and don’t want to. They are very open. Their firm’s profits depend on the fact that there is full trade integration in the world.

I think that Trump will use in a very effective way his threats of tariffs, but, for instance, one thing that could happen is that he points at specific products and puts tariffs on that. This is different from a full tariff war, and we can reciprocate because we have specific tariffs we can put on American products, and therefore we have our weapons. The point is that even there Europe must be united. In this case, Europe has the power to be united because, as you know, trade policies are centralized in Brussels, so the commission has full authority to maneuver with tariffs. Unity in theory is already there. The problem is that even the commission wants to be in agreement with the major countries so that if France starts diverging from Germany in trade issues, it’s going to be very difficult for the commission to act.

This is—we’re going to see. Anyway, I had a meeting at the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Rome. I was on video, and, well, the idea is that it’s going to be a bit of a mystery what is going to happen.

What do you expect from Trump era’s global politics? On the one hand, you have Western global economic blocks like G7. On the other hand, there’s now BRICS emerging. Some people are hopeful about BRICS, and some people criticize, asking what has BRICS achieved until now. Now Middle Eastern and Gulf countries are also being part of BRICS. This multibillionaire countries are in BRICS. BRICS is getting really stronger. Türkiye is eager to join too, but Trump recently made a declaration that anybody, any country, any person who wishes to reduce the power of the US dollar will be punished. What do you think about this global economic war and the clashes between these global economic blocks of the West and the East?

One thing we can immediately say is the issue of the dollar—the dollar being the privilege of the United States and the idea that somebody could compete with the dollar is not possible. I don’t think that this is a fruitful way for the BRICS. It doesn’t make any sense. You can have an independent circulation of another currency like the Chinese currency, but it’s going to be only to pay for goods and to cash what you get from exports.

As soon as you have assets and you want to invest them, you have to go to the States because this is the only place where you can find a menu of activities, a menu of financial assets that satisfies anybody—short, long, risky, less risky, everything. Moreover, as soon as you have an investment in the US, you can take it away when you want. It’s liquid, large, big, accepted all over the place. There’s no way for China to compete with the United States in this—no way. Absolutely.

I mean, they have controls; they have a political climate that is frightening for any investor. So, the renminbi can be useful, can have its own circulation in the East, in the Southeast, but it’s just circulating money. You can use it for doing the payments or keeping the wealth. As soon as you have assets and wealth to keep, you cannot keep your wealth in a sustainable way in that country. Even the euro is a problem in this sense because Europe is divided. Financial regulations are different in different countries, and when a Chinese investor wants to invest in Europe, investing in Italy is different than investing in France or Germany because banks are regulated in different ways, and the liquidity of the markets is very different.

The euro at the moment cannot even—cannot flank the dollar. So, the dollar is the dollar, full stop, for the moment. Then, when financial markets all over the world will be free, flexible, modern, well-regulated, and safe, then we might have a single currency at the global level. And that currency is not going to be issued by the States; it will be issued by a multilateral organization like the IMF or something similar.

The BRICS, when they talk about money and monetary matters, are really weakening their points. Sometimes, they are even, a little funny. It’s like theater. Look at what happened between Brazil and Argentina when they wanted to separate themselves from the dollar circuit. Nobody wants to put their money in Argentina, so it doesn’t make sense. It’s better to concentrate on real things, not on money.

Another thing that might be of interest is the issue of sustainability and the green transition. This is something that Trump criticizes and would like to stop, as he did or tried to do in his previous presidency. This can be worrying, but as far as I understand, he will find a lot of opposition—mainly from firms. In Europe, firms are moving sufficiently fast toward a green transition. They are fond of it in a sense; they are investing and following the rules. In America, also, large companies are like that. In certain states, the green transition is in progress. So, I doubt that Trump’s war against the green transition can be successful. It might slow it down a bit and give some voice to opposition, but in the end, it will fail.

The consciousness of the fact that if you don’t provide a sustainable green transition, we are going to face enormous problems is now very clear to everyone. Look at the costs of climate damage—it’s incredible. Banks are understanding this; they are measuring it. Central banks are putting rules in place and want to know the risk that each firm runs by having a plant near a river, the sea, or a mountain, or in a risky area.

If this happens, the interest rate for loans to such firms will be higher. So, the tendency of the economy to move in this direction is clear—faster or slower, but it will move. This process is going independently of Trump or general public opinion. This is my idea. Sometimes, I even see friends who are skeptical about the green transition when we’re having coffee together. But when I see them at work, they act as strict managers, pushing the green transition very seriously. So, I tend to be optimistic about this.

Please tell me: do you see any positive sides in BRICS? Because you said it is weak considering monetary policies and common currency issues. But do you see anything positive? You are a professor focusing on the global South. Considering the role of the global South in the global arena, which role do you give to BRICS?

The role of BRICS is the role they want to perform: to establish a different type of governance at the global level. Each country has to be represented for its true weight in the global economy.

For example, take the governance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations, or other international multilateral agencies. The way we regulate large markets—the ocean, the green transition, etc.—must ensure that decisions are not dominated by one or two blocks while forgetting the rest of the world, particularly the global South.

The global South’s presence at the right tables is essential. This is the only real aim of BRICS, apart from rhetoric, that makes sense. Otherwise, what do Argentina and Türkiye have in common? Or Egypt and Vietnam? They are culturally and socially different, with different aims and tendencies.

It’s not like the West, where people watch the same movies in Milan and Florida. BRICS countries are very different, but they make sense as a group because they can help re-equilibrate the world.

Take the IMF: its governance and the number of votes do not correspond to the actual weight of individual countries in the global economy. China doesn’t have the number of votes that reflect its weight. The same goes for India, Brazil, and Egypt.

We need to increase these countries’ weight in the IMF and their role in the United Nations, the International Labor Organization, the World Health Organization, and other global governance platforms.

The Global South must actively demand its representation. This is the only meaningful way to understand the concept of the global South. Otherwise, it’s just rhetoric. They can protest because they are forgotten and criticize the lack of help for poor countries to manage their debts and survive.

Look at the problems of the poor countries in the world. There are 40 to 70 very poor, heavily indebted countries today. These countries need help for several years now. Economists have developed proposals, techniques, and ideas to address this, but nothing is done quickly enough. There are proposals, there are techniques. Economies have developed and elaborated a lot of ideas. There is a possibility to do it, but nothing is done quickly enough to solve the situation. So this is what—and it’s a common interest because even the United States, or Europe, or all the lenders, as usual, have an interest in the fact that the borrowers can repay their debts.

Fixing this problem and relaunching the growth of countries that are today too poor to sustain their life in the world is a common interest. It has to be pursued by a multilateral organization. And the BRICS—BRICS excluding China or with China, depending on certain issues—

Europe can act as a broker because we understand these dynamics better than Americans do, normally and obviously. Sometimes even a sacrifice is needed. For example, Europe holds more votes in the IMF than it deserves. We should give up some of these votes to BRICS and then use our remaining voting power more effectively as a united bloc.

Europe has instruments to broker agreements with BRICS, even making sacrifices to achieve results. This can lead to a new approach to multilateralism.

The government in France is also on the verge of collapse due to the budget crisis. Is it possible that the EU’s two most indebted countries will be dragged into a Greek-style debt crisis? On the other hands, in Italy, the government’s budget plan has sparked debate and strikes. It calls for increased purchasing power for wages and pensions, and more funding for health, education, public services and industrial policies. What do you think of the budget plan?

Well, let me say first one thing on Greece, on the Greek example. The Greek example is famous because apparently European authorities and the IMF have dealt with Greece in a bad way. And they caused a lot of suffering. Now this is true, but it is also true that at the end, Greece was able to profit from the enormous financial help that we gave.

And I was recently in Cairo and there was a big conference. And what the Egyptians did was to invite Greek people from the treasury, from the parliament, from the political parties and from the think-tanks. And they organized an entire morning on Greece, citing Greece as a potential example for Egypt in getting out from a debt trap. And these Greeks that are now in power, they were explaining the way they did it in the last ten years. They were able gradually to get out and now they are in much better form. And I asked very squarely the question, but look, what about this fact that apparently the IMF in Europe has made you suffer enormously and this was counterproductive? And they answered in a very unexpected way. “Yes, we suffered a lot. We probably could have suffered less if the approach would have been different. But suffering was indispensable for solving our problems and we were able to solve our problems. So, now we are much better off.” And this was important because Egypt was learning that you can be rigorous with finance, suffer a bit, but getting out of the problem and attracting capital.

Now as France and Italy, it’s a totally different story. We have so large countries, so large debts. So as soon as we have difficulties, we will be under the control of European financial help, the central bank, the commission. So, it’s going to be a problem at that point of re-managing our countries. My impression is that if we don’t do before our tasks our homework and reorganize our public finance in a sustainable way, we will do this anyway under the control of the European Central Bank, the commission, and I think it’s difficult to do these things without the IMF. So, because you know, nobody can allow France or Italy to have a true financial crisis. It’s impossible to bear.

Look what happened in 2010, 2011. Greece failed, Ireland failed, Portugal failed, Spain, not the whole country but the banking system failed, and Cyprus. All these countries were bankrupt basically and were, say, officially bankrupt. They were not able to repay their debts. They were helped and re-managed by the international community. But the worst situation at that time was the Italian one. Because we had the largest problem in terms of public debt and speculative attack. And we were the biggest country there. So, officially, we were not bankrupt but we were helped very, very much.

We were being helped in many ways including the fact that they’ve changed the rules in Europe. They admitted that the central bank can officially help a country that proves to be constructive in solving its debt crisis.

So, regarding my questions about France and Italy’s budget today, you said that it is not a problem because this country cannot be bankrupt.

They cannot be bankrupt. I was looking at what’s happening to the spread of France these hours, to the interest rates on long-term debt. And you can see clearly that when it comes a certain time during the morning, the price of long-term bonds of France -and also Italy are the same- but France is currently much more under speculation than Italy. The price of bonds, which is going down the very first part of the morning, second part of the morning, comes up.

The reason is we cannot say this officially but since the central bank is buying, I’m sure. And at the end we can see this statistically because once every month, there is a statistic where the central bank is obliged to show how many bonds it has purchased or sold. And if you analyze carefully this data, you can discover that they are clearly manipulating for stabilizing this. So, I think that politicians in both countries must sooner or later discipline themselves and suffer some costs of austerity and readjustment. Otherwise somebody else will come up and do it for them.

Among the suggestions put forward in the report prepared by Mario Draghi to make the EU competitive again with the US and China is the issue of joint borrowing. He proposes joint borrowing. France and Italy want this but it is not okay for Germany. It is not okay for Netherlands. What do you think of the suggestions in the Draghi report?

I am a very good friend of Draghi. Well, in fact we gave him the ISPI prize. I like the report. It is full of good ideas. At the end, it is convincing in saying that there is no way to do what we have to do to be competitive if we don’t borrow together. But, I have a big “but”. One should also emphasize the fact that maybe with a slower rhythm, but we must spend less at the national level. We must have less debt at the national level. And in a certain sense, I criticize Draghi because he doesn’t say this. I know he thinks this, but he doesn’t say this in an explicit way. Borrowing together means that we spend together also. Okay, but this must not be only additional expenses. We have to give up something at the national level, bring some of our expenditure under the authority of Brussels, save something so that the global debt, including national debt, doesn’t grow very, very much. And the idea of Draghi is that there is this concept of “good debt”. And good debt is the debt that you can do but because it is productive. And I agree that it is productive. If you go into debt to spend in a useful thing, it’s going to be a deal at the end. But, in the meantime, the markets will not follow you. So, you can have a very good debt, but you cannot have it too large. Because, at the end, the market doesn’t look very much to the fact that after 5 or 10 years, your debt will be productive.

From now to the next 5 years, the market must support you and must believe that you really are going to reimburse this thing. And in order to do so, you must show some financial discipline. You must give up something in order to spend in other things.

So, I am fully positive on the idea of having joint borrowing. I think Germans are fairly confused. I mean, they don’t even want their own debt to increase. They want this “zero budget” rule that doesn’t make any macroeconomic sense. Because, at least, the national debt must grow at the same rhythm as GDP. And in order to grow, you have to have more debt. Because, otherwise, the ratio between debt and GDP goes to zero. Because GDP grows and debt stays put. It doesn’t make sense.

So, you have to abolish this rule. And Germans are understanding this. So, sooner or later, things will change in Germany in this sense. So, it’s fine to have more debt and have it as a global debt together. But there must be something that officially centralizes certain expenditures and takes away financial autonomy from national debt. Because, otherwise, you add debt to debt, add debt to debt. In the end, the markets will not accept it. Also, because these debts are in Euros, as I say. And if they are in Euros, then you don’t follow another important suggestion of both Letta and Draghi.

That is, unify capital markets. If you don’t unify capital markets, they don’t even will buy this debt. By the way, this is what happened to the joint debts that we made for the COVID crisis. We issued this common debt to finance the Next Generation EU program. But the interest rate on these bonds happens to be very high compared, for instance, to German debt. The reason is that the market is not liquid.

When a Chinese wants to buy one of these securities, he doesn’t know exactly who is the real debtor, where is the market where he can sell and buy these things, how many, even when JP Morgan buys one of these securities, they don’t know how large will this market be. Because, okay, we issued that today, but what about tomorrow? So, we have really to make deep reforms to make the Euro market uniform, united, a big pool of funds. And this is what Draghi argues very well in the report.

So, you have to do this, and then you can issue debt in common and be credible and have low interest rates. Otherwise, the Chinese, at the end, they will buy this debt only at a discount, because it’s not that liquid. If they want to invest their money better, they buy US treasuries. I mean, why should they buy this if there’s no public finance behind it? So, it’s very important to make unification of capital markets and then some transfer of expenditure, so that the national debts decrease and common debt increases. But the fact that Draghi doesn’t have the courage to insist on the fact that we have to decrease national debts in a much more rigorous way, I think it’s a mistake. He should have insisted also on this.

Let’s talk more about Europe. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier emphasized strengthening France-Italy ties. This emphasis was interpreted as a sign that France increasingly sees Italy as a partner in EU matters. Will Italy take on such a role? France also needs some partners because in some cases in Brussels it feels not backed enough. What is Italy’s position regarding France’s global international policies and European policies? Where does Italy see France?

Well, Italy is sort of a vague concept. We have a government which is now different from the governments we had in the past. And so the Italian government now has a different idea of Europe. But for instance, I don’t know, ISPI for instance, or researchers and thinkers in ISPI have different ideas. So in this way, what really has to be stressed is that it’s not an issue of France and Italy. The issue is Europe.

We have to put together our countries in a common policy and this has to be done as quickly as possible. The problem is that France is a difficult country in dealing with foreign policies because they are rhetorically very, in particular Macron is, rhetorically very pro-Europe. But then when you come to concrete issues, they always are very much nationalistic.

So look at the defence issue. The defence issue is now very important and we want to sort of build a common defence system. We want to put in common defence strategies and form a substantial European army, etc. And France is crucial because they are the most powerful military power in the European Union.

Italy is not bad too in defense production.

 No, we have good producers of arms, but certainly our army is much, much weaker than the French army. I mean, France is a nuclear power, has a very strong army, super technologies in the army. So they are much more powerful than we are. Moreover, they are in the United Nations Security Council. So they are extremely powerful in terms of military power. And they tend to keep it. For instance, they would never give up their position in the United Nations Security Council. And this prevents Europe to have its role in the Security Council. We should be represented by one person coming from Brussels.

And I think Germany would approve of this. Italy, perhaps not with the current government, is going to be a bit more difficult. But I think that at the end, we would approve. Spain would approve. But France wouldn’t approve. Maybe they would say yes, but then they would put a lot of difficulties.

In Türkiye, President Erdogan says the world is bigger than five, referring to the United Nations Security Council. This motto became widespread in the World. Many others also discuss that the UN needs reform, UNSG needs reform, but how should be the UNSG reformed regarding the way it operates. In your case, France practically does not represent the whole continent of Europe. So, can you tell me how the representation should be amended? Should the new international organizations such as BRICS have also representation in the UNSG?

Well, it’s a question of having a larger group of countries and not full unanimity. So a larger group of countries having a decision power that currently is with the Security Council. Or if you want to increase the powers of the Assembly, which includes everybody, and changing the weight of the countries. And Europe should act together, should be represented as a single country. Somebody from Brussels should represent the EU in the UNSG.

And so, but currently there are lots of proposals. They are discussing a bit. Italy has its own documents. But I think it’s irrelevant because it’s a confusion. And the crucial point is that there’s no agreement on changing the current situation. 

Why do you think Italy’s proposal is complicated? What does it say?

To give more room to the Global South. But Italy cannot express a proposal which is too different from what can be agreed in Europe given that we have France in the Security Council. Moreover, we have this question of the British. Because, you know, Britain was in the Union previously. And it’s no longer there. And now we’re going to see what happens with the United Kingdom because with Trump, who knows, maybe that Trump manages to sort of eat the United Kingdom and put it also from the military power completely on their side, as they are now. But perhaps also something different could happen and the opposite could happen that is, the United Kingdom being near to Europe, also in geographical terms, and having the same threats from the East, etc., maybe she can be re-approached by Europe also on military issues. At the moment, this is what is happening. During the last months, there’s been a very important re-approach of the British defence system in Europe. We had different strategies about Ukraine. The UK are much more sort of radical. We are more prudent, if you want. But even trend can change now.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also didn’t like the fact that the US President Biden approved the use of US-made ballistic missiles can be used against Russia by Ukraine just before he leaves his post. She found it risky and provocative.

This probably has been a mixture of propaganda and inertia of the Biden administration. It’s probably a mistake, diplomatically speaking. And it’s not really happening. Because as you see, Zelensky keeps saying we don’t have the arms to win the war.

But Zelensky said we waited 12 months to receive this ballistic missile, but they will receive it.

They don’t receive what they need, because these are not weapons you can use just like that. You need really a lot of assistance. I mean, this is really a mystery for everyone. But for instance, we have information that Russia is in enormous economic difficulties in this moment. They have inflation that is growing very much. There’s a deep division between the central bank and the government. And so the economic situation is going badly perhaps not to be able to stop the war, but to change in a very radical way its rhythm. So maybe a ceasefire, a pause… Moreover, we have to wait for Trump, really, because Trump has gone so far as to say, “I will get out from NATO”. This is absolutely improbable. He will never do such thing. But still we have to wait, because when he will start governing, we’re going to see what can be done also in these terms, because, for instance, Zelensky deserves at least a clear answer on the fact that they should be defended by NATO or not. And if we deny the defense, we have to provide something else, a substitute. It should sort of manage the diplomatic settlement with Russia in a rather different way. Because, in principle, if Zelensky was not satisfied, but would stand a stop of the war and giving up a substantial part of their land, like the peninsula and maybe a couple of regions there…

Do you mean that some land should be given?

No, but suppose that at the end the situation is such that they have to give up something.

You mean Crimea?

Crimea and maybe a couple of lands smaller than the Russians are now occupying, but something. When you sit at the table and start discussing, the important thing is if the red line has been placed backwards with respect to the position, “we will never give not even a square meter to the Russians”. This has been the red line up to now. But this red line is not sustainable. And it will be changed, I think. So, the problem is not so much how much it will be changed, but it will be changed. And therefore it will, at a certain point, in exchange of the stopping of killing people, there will be this red line. But Zelensky has basically already said that this red line is now much more flexible. If you look at the very last declarations, you can see that. And moreover, you must understand what Russians do want, even for them. If you give maybe only Crimea and Putin thinks that he can exploit the fact that he has been able to get Crimea in a way which is sufficient for him to declare and to pretend that he has done a fruitful thing for Russia, which is a crazy idea because the cost for Russia has been enormous. But suppose he is convinced that if he can declare that having a little piece of Donbass and Crimea, he has won. Well, this can help Putin to come to terms and stop the war.

But all this has to be seen. And the only thing that I know for sure, because this is a common sentiment, it’s not my personal conviction, is that during the last couple of months, things have been progressing. In spite of the fact that they still bomb. But the diplomatic work is going on. And China, I think, is also crucial. And it has been activated. And I think that the relationship between the US and China is the relationship that will find a solution. Because China is in full control of Putin, full. I mean, they can stop it from one day to the other. I mean, they buy the gas, they buy the oil, they provide the arms, they defend…

China will not blackmail Putin to stop the war or to stop trade.

Well, if they want, they can do it.

If they want the war to finish, why would China want the war to finish?

Because they might turn the point aside, that they want to improve very, very much their relationship with the rest of the world. They are sufficiently powerful to deal in a peaceful way and be the winners in many fields.

So that after all, it’s better to live without the war than with the war. Because they need investments, they need to be considered a serious country. Obviously, we have to offer to them a different attitude in terms of their culture and their political ideas. We cannot ask China to become a Western country. It doesn’t make sense. We have to pay full respect to their values, full respect to their political system that is different from us and will stay different. And we must hope that it stays different. Because if you try to impose on a country, on a culture, a system which is not good for their culture, it’s going to be a failure. So, as soon as we give the right attention to China, and they understand, I think they will stop. Moreover, it’s a danger also for them.

Look, now they have North Korea… North Korea for China, you know, they’ve been in charge in the past, they’ve been in charge to keep control of North Korea. And now, they’ve lost control of North Korea, I suppose. And today, we have the news from South Korea. And China is extremely attentive to economics. They want to grow. They want to be rich. They want to be successful economically. It’s not like Russia that has lost its mind, and they don’t know what they want. China knows what they want. So, I think it’s reasonable enough. And they have an enormous amount of relations with America. They have an enormous amount of investments in the US. And the United States and European investments are very rich and very important in China.

So, China is completely on different footing. I think that they are in full talking with the US since the beginning of the work. By the way, we had a very important meeting between the two. A very powerful Chinese delegation came to Italy, came to Rome at the very beginning of the Ukrainian war and entered the American Embassy, and they stayed in 48 hours. And we don’t know what they said. It was on the media. We saw on the television news, we saw the cars coming also from Washington, because there was a special delegation from Washington. And we saw the cars of the Chinese. And the doors of the American Embassy, where you, by the way, you have a very large part which is occupied by the CIA. So, they opened up and then they closed up. And this happened during late afternoon, or it was already dark, I remember. And some say that, Jake Sullivan was there, so some say that something has been decided that has been kept during the war. Because, politicians are, they declare the wars, but the true power is with the generals. And the generals are very, very reasonable. People that know what the war is, they know exactly what they’re talking about. And they prefer not to be in war. They want to have a lot of arms, a lot of power, a lot of money but not the war.

You said that Zelensky became flexible in his red lines recently, and there was much progress. Why do you think is that? Because several Western leaders, such foreign minister of UK, somebody from US and somebody from Germany, they were like several declarations that Ukraine is being like a buffer zone for protecting the West. And some ministers said that Ukrainians are dying bravely for Europe. And for these two years, we see that seriously. Ukrainians are dying for Europeans. And Zelensky is now, what do you think, figuring out that he’s not supported enough? The West actually looks like now provoked Ukraine to get in a war with Russia. And now it is almost all alone. Zelensky, joined the radio program. He told, “I am waiting the US to confirm the arms sales for one year.” And why do you think he’s getting now flexible? Because he accepts the situation that the West is actually not giving him what they promised?

Yeah, I don’t want to exaggerate in saying that it’s becoming flexible. But the impression is that he’s saying, “you should have given us much more help. You should send us immediately very powerful missiles. You are bad if you don’t do it.” I still expect that this happens. But he keeps saying some buts because he understands that things cannot go on like this. And by the way, I think he should have done this much before if he could rely on his population to confirm him after a peace treaty. The problem is that, you know, the real danger is that the war stops, from a military point of view, Russia doesn’t go beyond a certain limit, maybe just a really small part like the peninsula is given to the Russians. But Ukraine falls in the hands politically of a puppet government similar to the Belarusian. So, Zelensky is sent away and Ukraine is governed by a pro-Russian government, corrupted and financed by Moscow, etc. So, these are the two things to be avoided. If you can avoid this in exchange of giving up pieces of land that are, moreover, whose inhabitants are also more or less Russians, I think that it’s something that at this moment would be at least attractable at the table, also for Zelensky. He cannot say this clearly, but I’m sure that it is.

Why he cannot say it clearly? Because he needs approval of the bosses from Europe or the US. Who should allow Zelensky to make a peace deal?

His population. These guys are dying massively to defend. And then if you say stop, they have been convinced of the possibility of winning this war. Because they had the West in their favor, etc. So, if you are the number one of a country like this, you have to say that the war has to be won, etc. I mean, it’s very dangerous. You have also this nuclear power plant in Ukraine. In Ukraine, it keeps being a nightmare. So you cannot…

So, you said that it would be for Ukraine a good idea to give up from some land where there is already Russians are living and it is already kind of taken by Russia. And for example, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, there are more Russian population living. Russia said they made a referendum. We really don’t know the content as we were not there. On the other hand, it has another outcome. When I go to Baltics, I spoke with several politicians and they say that the Ukraine, it is important to keep the territorial integrity because they are very afraid that if Ukraine loses any land, they are afraid that Russia can go to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. There is the Suvalki Corridor problem. You know, if Russia, with the support of Belarus, gets the Suvalki Corridor, all these Baltic countries’ ties and connection can be cut with Europe and NATO borders.

Yeah, it’s a Hitler model, you know, with the Czechs back in the beginning. This is clearly the position, but this doesn’t change if you keep Ukraine without concessions. I mean, they are on the frontier of Europe. What they can ask is a super support of all Europe and America and the West and everybody to their borders. This is what they can. Moreover, Ukraine is a cushion between part of the European Union, the southern part of Russia, but Estonia and Lithuania have a contact with Russia. So, it’s fairly natural that these countries are very sensitive to this, but I don’t think they can change the reality. Ukraine has been a disaster. Perhaps things could have been conducted in a different way and perhaps, the outcome could have been better. But moreover, once Russia is out of this war, its economic and political conditions will be very weak, not very strong. Even if the solution could be giving up a little part of Ukraine. This will give Putin the right to, in turn, domestically, to argue in favor of what he did, but it doesn’t strengthen the Russian economy, etc.

China, again, is crucial because China, at that point, could do one very aggressive thing, that is really to conquer Russia. In the sense that a very weak Russia could become a province of China, basically. Metaphorically. And they could sort of seal this with a lot of very important things such as Chinese population being settling in Russia, in Siberia, in Russia. Very strong agreements in terms of resources, etc. This means that Russia will cease to exist independent of China. And this can be done also in an aggressive way to the West. So, at that point, China could say, “well, I take Russia and I keep being extremely aggressive with the West”. Or the opposite could happen. “Well, now that I helped to solve the Russian problem, I will be able to deal with the West in a peaceful but diplomatically strong way”. And then you have Taiwan at that point. If you give up something in Taiwan also, you can buy Chinese consensus. So, it depends a bit. And Trump in this can be a surprise.

And by the way, finally, Türkiye. I mean, Türkiye should take much more responsibility in this. Because Türkiye is playing in all the fields, doing everything and mediation.

They could do an enormous job. Because they have a relationship with Ukraine in terms of sea shipping. Odessa is a crucial thing for Türkiye. You could really contribute… Türkiye could really contribute to make a deal with Russia and Ukraine and help Ukraine to accept a deal that will bring peace. Because you have something to offer. And to offer in a way also to get something.

This is very unique. Türkiye is buying S-400s from Russia and giving Baykar UAVs, drones, to Ukraine for air defense. Baykar is not a government company. It’s a private company. So it looks like complicated, but it’s really a balancing situation.

You have a lot of money. You can make enormous investments in Ukraine and cheap price, basically. Of course, when the reconstruction starts, the peace deal should be signed for that.

Interview

‘Freedom of thought in the US has never been under greater threat’

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American journalist Joe Lauria, Editor-in-Chief of Consortium News, spoke to Harici: “Freedom of thought in the US has never been under greater threat.”

Joe Lauria is an experienced investigative journalist specializing in US foreign policy. Since 1990, he has worked for mainstream media organizations such as The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Sunday Times (London), The New York Times, and The Washington Post. He currently serves as the editor-in-chief of the independent investigative journalism platform Consortium News. Lauria is the co-author of A Political Odyssey: The Rise of American Militarism and One Man’s Fight to Stop It, written with former US Senator Mike Gravel, and How I Lost By Hillary Clinton. The foreword to the second book was written by Julian Assange. In his journalism career, he has focused on issues such as US military interventions, intelligence operations, and press freedom. Lauria is the recipient of the 2017 Martha Gellhorn Prize for Journalism and the 2015 I.F. Stone Medal from the Harvard Nieman Foundation.

Joe Lauria answered Tunç Akkoç’s questions in an interview with Harici.

In your 2023 personal reflections, you mentioned Daniel Ellsberg, who risked his freedom to leak the Pentagon Papers. As far as I know, you also closely follow the Julian Assange and Edward Snowden cases. How do you assess the conflict between freedom of expression and national security? In your opinion, can the leaking of classified documents be justified when the public interest is served?

I absolutely believe that leaking classified information is the right thing to do, especially if it will end an unjust war. That’s what Daniel Ellsberg was trying to do by leaking the Pentagon Papers. And this idea of national security, especially in the United States, has very often been used as a kind of sham. It’s a way to protect the interests of powerful people who were involved in a terrible war like Vietnam. And even though they were losing the war, and they knew it, they refused to end that war. The Pentagon Papers were all about that. The government study Ellsberg participated in, which was supposed to be secret, showed that the US knew for years it was losing that war. Politicians and generals kept telling the American people and the world they were going to win. So many people, mostly Vietnamese but also American soldiers, were dying for nothing. But it was very difficult for them to withdraw politically from the war because they would look like failures, not just militarily but politically. And I think we’re seeing a similar situation in Ukraine right now.

But yes, someone who has these documents, like Ellsberg did, like Chelsea Manning did about the Iraq war, and finding a newspaper or an online publisher like WikiLeaks to publish these documents, is absolutely their right to turn the public against the government based not just on a political argument, but on facts that were hidden from the public. The Assange case was particularly dangerous because they went after a publisher. Now, in the US, we have the First Amendment [The First Amendment to the United States Constitution], and that basically allows you to publish any material under the First Amendment. But the Espionage Act contradicts the First Amendment because it says anyone who has unauthorized possession of defense or classified information is in violation of the Espionage Act. Now, Assange was a publisher, so he had First Amendment protection. But he was also technically violating the Espionage Act. So that law needs to be changed. In fact, that’s what he pleaded guilty to, which is why he was freed, because he said, yes, I broke that law, but I don’t believe the law is just. I believed I was protected by the First Amendment. That’s why I published the documents, he said.

So again, a government employee who signs a secrecy agreement, as they all do in intelligence agencies, by law, whether it’s the US Espionage Act or the British Official Secrets Act, they cannot give out the information. And we are living in a time of great repression, not just about classified information, but about any kind of information that goes against powerful interests. They are stopping people from speaking, particularly on social media. The government is using private companies to silence people who criticize Israel, especially right now and about what’s happening in Gaza. And this is even more serious than Daniel Ellsberg because it involves hundreds, maybe thousands of people, students speaking out on campuses. That Turkish woman arrested in Massachusetts, a student who wrote an op-ed, along with four other names, hers was the only name in the article.

When you compare it to the past, how do you assess the current state of freedom of expression in America? Have you seen a similar picture before?

It’s much worse today. Let me give you a quick example of how it was better in the past. It was never great. But I’ll give you an example of how much worse it has become. Fifty years ago, in the 1970s, I can’t remember the exact year, there was a journalist named Seymour Hersh, and he was given classified information or made aware of this attack in My Lai, a village in Vietnam. Where American soldiers killed dozens of innocent women, children, and all the men in a village. This was one of many massacres. But the American people didn’t know about it. It wasn’t in the newspapers. So a whistleblower went to Congress and then to this journalist and gave the information. The information was published, it became a huge scandal. They arrested and prosecuted one soldier, but he got out after a year or two.

My Lai was a civilian massacre in Vietnam in the 1960s. At that time, a whistleblower came forward, and Congress and the press listened to him. He was not punished at all. The journalist Seymour Hersh reported on this incident, got a job at The New York Times, and won a Pulitzer Prize. One of the responsible soldiers, Lieutenant Calley, was tried and imprisoned. Now let’s look at Iraq. The video known as “Collateral Murder” was leaked by Chelsea Manning to WikiLeaks. It showed US helicopter gunships firing on civilians in the streets of Baghdad. Manning was imprisoned for disclosing this information. The journalist who published the video, Julian Assange, has also been deprived of his freedom for years. But none of the soldiers in the video were prosecuted. So, in 50 years, the tables have turned: the whistleblower used to go free, now they go to prison. The journalist used to be rewarded, now they are punished. The soldiers used to be prosecuted, now they are immune. This situation clearly shows how much the American system and culture have regressed. Furthermore, the government’s use of private companies to restrict public speech on social media platforms is ongoing censorship. Freedom of expression on platforms like Twitter and Facebook is under serious pressure.

We are all aware of this now: thanks to social media, people have more of a voice than ever before. This threatens elite and powerful interest groups. In the past, this threat came from powerful, independent media, as in events like Watergate, which brought down Nixon. Today, however, ordinary people have a more effective voice than they ever had before. That’s precisely why there’s an extraordinary effort to silence these voices. But pay attention: This isn’t happening in the Soviet Union or China. It’s happening in the United States of America. Yet this is a country that should be a symbol of democracy and freedom of expression.

My next question is a bit more general but directly related to what you’ve been saying. Based on your book “A Political Odyssey,” how do you explain America’s interventionism that has been ongoing since World War II? What is the fundamental reason for the military-industrial complex, which we’ve been talking about for decades, being constantly fed by war? And do you think this cycle can be broken?

That’s a very big question. Firstly, I think American interventionism dates back much further than just post-World War II, even to the founding of the United States in 1789. In fact, this tendency began to show itself after the victory against Britain in 1787. At that time, the British had forbidden the colonies from crossing the Appalachian Mountains to seize Native American lands. Many American colonists did not want to accept this prohibition. This was one of the reasons for the rebellion—perhaps not the main one, but an important element. After gaining independence, the US engaged in a systematic war of extermination and expansion against indigenous peoples. This was truly a chain of territorial expansion and interventions.

Then came the Mexican-American War in 1846. Large areas within today’s US borders, like California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona, belonged to Mexico at that time; they were seized through war. And of course, in 1898, the rising American Empire replaced the collapsing Spanish Empire. The US defeated the Spanish in places like the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico; it even intervened in Cuba. This marked the beginning of America’s expansion on a global scale. So, this interventionist structure has existed in America from the very beginning.

However, a significant break occurred with World War II. We discuss this topic in detail in the book I co-authored with the late Senator Mike Gravel. In American history, many companies that produced weapons during wartime would return to their former businesses after the war. For example, firms that made sewing machines produced weapons during the war and then went back to making sewing machines. Even after the American Civil War, an army of one million was disbanded, and soldiers returned to their farms. So, the US never had a permanent army or a continuous war industry. But this situation changed radically after World War II. Because the Great Depression of the 1930s had largely ended thanks to the war. The war industry became the fundamental dynamic that pulled the US out of the crisis and made it the world’s largest manufacturing power. This is not the case today—Trump tried to bring it back, but it probably won’t be possible. At the end of the war, there was a strong motivation to sustain the military industry due to the fear that the economic depression would return. This motivation coincided with the US process of global expansion. Permanent military bases were left in the Pacific, Asia, and many parts of the world. Because the US was the only major power not devastated after the war. This effectively gave it the role of a global empire.

At this point, as Eisenhower also warned, we are talking about the beginning of a permanent military-industrial complex and America’s global empire. And we are still living within this structure today. Like all other empires, this structure will eventually collapse. But this collapse will not happen willingly; it will occur with back-and-forth steps, over time, and inevitably. Today, we see BRICS countries coming together to create a counterbalance to US imperial power. This perhaps signals the beginning of the end. It’s no coincidence that Donald Trump praised President McKinley in a recent speech. McKinley was the president during the period when the US fought against the Spanish Empire. Trump similarly carries a kind of “imperial nostalgia.” He wants to revive old power with tariffs, to return America to its 1950s manufacturing capacity. But this will not happen. This, in my opinion, is his pathological dream. The forces Trump represents have realized that US global dominance is nearing its end. Just like the old empires in Europe, America needs to understand that it must now turn its attention to its internal problems. For now, there is no concrete sign in this direction, but in my view, this transformation is inevitable. And we are currently at that very breaking point in history.

Now let’s come to today. Trump and the MAGA movement have repeatedly promised to dismantle the “deep state.” Do you think Trump can genuinely break the influence of the military-industrial complex? After all, he explicitly said so himself. What are your thoughts?

First, it must be said: the deep state denies its own existence. It’s even ridiculed with the claim that this concept is a “conspiracy theory.” But many of those who say this are actually part of those very structures. They don’t want to be seen; they want to remain deep. So, the fact that the “deep state” is now openly discussed, at least in America, is progress in itself. In other countries, these structures were recognized much earlier. In America, this structure was essentially established after World War II. With the National Security Act signed by Truman in 1947, the Pentagon, the National Security Council, and then the CIA were established. In 1950, the NSA [National Security Agency], whose existence was kept secret for a long time, emerged. So, the institutional foundations of the deep state were laid during that period. Whether you like Trump or not, one truth must be accepted: The Russiagate scandal was a fabrication from start to finish. It was a lie concocted by the Clinton campaign, and this lie was supported by institutions like the FBI. Leaking false news about your opponent in American politics is common; it’s called “opposition research.” However, when it came to Trump, this turned into a state operation. The FBI saw Trump as unpredictable, outside the system, and dangerous. He was an uncontrollable figure whose actions were uncertain. He was also someone who threatened the system. That’s why they tried to stop him. Trump realized this and developed a personal vendetta, especially against the FBI. Ultimately, Trump was both perceived as a threat to the deep state and was subjected to its interference.

Some noteworthy developments are currently taking place. Trump has appointed Kash Patel, an Indian-American, as FBI Director. Patel says he wants to close the FBI’s Washington headquarters and turn it into just a field office. This also includes a plan to transfer the budget to local law enforcement agencies across the country. If this happens, it would mean a serious shake-up of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s central bureaucratic structure—and that would be a significant signal. Also, during the Trump era, some documents related to the John F. Kennedy assassination were released. These documents brought questions about the CIA’s role back to the fore. These could be seen as signs of a reckoning with the deep state. But despite all this, it’s hard to say for sure. Whether there will be truly lasting change is unknown. The structure we call the deep state has always found a way to survive. Even if Trump leaves, despite the damage done, the system is likely to be rebuilt—unless a fundamental structural transformation occurs. The point we have reached today is a period where intelligence agencies are influential enough to shape not only foreign policy but, at times, domestic policy as well. Therefore, we are at an extremely critical juncture in American history.

It should also be added: some believe Trump might genuinely be fighting against existing power structures. However, there’s another view—that even if Trump and his team dismantle the current deep state, they will establish their own “deep state” in its place. So, this could just be a different version of a power struggle.

Yes, you’re absolutely right. The system will most likely change, but it will be replaced by a structure controlled by Trump instead of the Democrats. There will still be a “deep state,” but in a different form. Because the current structure operates like a power above parties—it’s always there, regardless of who the president is or who controls Congress. There’s a strong example of this: About 10 years ago, the Senate wanted to declassify a report on the CIA’s torture practices following the Iraq invasion. This report revealed that the US had established secret torture centers worldwide after 9/11. Obama also openly admitted this, saying “we tortured some folks.” However, the CIA secretly accessed Senate members’ computers to prevent the report’s publication. This was a huge scandal, not just morally but legally. Because the CIA is prohibited from operating within the US—let alone spying on elected senators, which is a direct violation of the constitutional order. This incident clearly showed how powerful and untouchable intelligence agencies have become. As for Trump—he’s hard to define because we haven’t seen anyone like him before. He took harsh steps against the bureaucracy, weakened many institutions, and dismissed many people. But he often did this with day-to-day decisions, without a plan or long-term strategy. So, it’s uncertain whether he will feel the need to build a “deep state” behind him. However, if he has big goals—like buying Greenland, as he once mentioned—then he might need intelligence and military power, and thus a kind of deep state of his own. Therefore, the answer to the question of whether Trump would create his own deep state is: Yes, that’s quite possible.

Now let’s move from domestic policy to foreign policy. How realistic do you think are the expectations that the Trump administration will end US intervention in foreign wars? Does Trump truly represent a shift? Especially considering the comments many make about a “realist foreign policy” and a move away from the neocon line, how do you view these assessments?

Actually, not really—and that’s the problem. This time, there are no openly interventionist, neocon figures like John Bolton or Mike Pompeo in the Trump administration. However, Marco Rubio is Secretary of State, and figures like General Keith Kellogg are re-emerging. For example, Kellogg was previously dismissed and demoted, but now he’s trying to be influential in Ukraine policies again. Trump says things that sound good. He gives some messages that are anti-interventionist and intuitively correct. This aligns with the rising libertarian tendencies in America. There’s a particular vein that opposes foreign interventions, and Trump sometimes aligns with this. However, there’s still a serious gap between rhetoric and practice.

Trump says he doesn’t like wars and wants to end the war in Ukraine. But the real question is: does he truly understand the fundamental causes of this war? This was the point Vladimir Putin emphasized in his long phone call with Trump—this war won’t end unless the root causes are addressed. In America, however, these causes are hardly ever discussed. The mainstream media doesn’t bring up these deep-rooted reasons. Yet, at the beginning of the 2014 crisis, there was open talk about the unconstitutional change of government in Ukraine and the role of neo-Nazi groups—especially the Azov Battalion—in this process. US and British media had published major stories about these groups. It was stated that although their numbers were small, their influence was very large.

But now this narrative has been erased. Talking about neo-Nazis has almost become taboo. Again, there’s no longer any mention of President Viktor Yanukovych, who was confirmed as democratically elected by the OSCE [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe], being violently overthrown in February 2014. It’s like a chapter erased from history. We, at Consortium News, report on these overlooked fundamental causes. Because we voice these truths ignored by the mainstream media, we have faced censorship and various smear campaigns. Some circles even tried to label us as Russian propagandists—simply for reporting documented facts like the coup and neo-Nazis.

In December 2021, Russia presented some draft treaties to NATO and the US. Their demands were clear: withdrawal of NATO troops from former Warsaw Pact countries and removal of missile systems in Romania and Poland, which are only six minutes away from Moscow. There was concern that these systems could carry nuclear warheads. Russia explicitly stated that if these demands were not negotiated, it would take “technical-military steps”—and this resulted in the invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia’s 2022 attack is often presented as a “beginning,” according to Moscow, it was a continuation of a war that Ukraine started in 2014 with US support. So, does Trump really understand these facts? I don’t know. I don’t think so. He had long talks with Putin, and even his envoy Fred Witkoff went to Moscow several times. The Russians must have explained these issues—including NATO expansion—many times. Moreover, these objections don’t just belong to Putin; his predecessor Boris Yeltsin was also openly against NATO expansion, even their puppet Yeltsin. So, these objections have been part of Russia’s political line for over thirty years.

So, can Trump really end the war in Ukraine? To do that, he first needs to understand the fundamental causes of the war. Because the only way Ukraine can win this war is if NATO directly goes to war with Russia. However, NATO leaders are aware that this could lead to a nuclear catastrophe—so this option is not on the table. This means Ukraine cannot win. In reality, Ukraine has lost the war. The sooner they sit down at the table, the better their terms might be. But they continue to fight. Trump, at this point, remains ineffective. Yet he has the power to end this war. The US provides weapons, intelligence, and funding to the Ukrainian government. In fact, Ukraine has been largely sustained by American taxpayers’ money for eight years. Trump could stop the war by deciding to cut this support. But so far, he isn’t doing it.

The second issue is Gaza, and this is perhaps the worst. Trump is supporting a war crime of the most heinous kind here. Moreover, he completely misunderstands the issue. He’s from New York, like me—he comes from Queens—and he describes Gaza as if it’s a high-crime neighborhood. He talks about stabbings and muggings but never mentions the 2,000-pound bombs dropped on people’s tents, their forced displacement and subsequent bombing, or their starvation. Trump talks about helping the people of Gaza, but he plans to do this by removing them and building new structures in their place, meaning through ethnic cleansing. This doesn’t look like someone who wants to end wars—on the contrary, he’s exhibiting an attitude that condones the most serious human rights violations we’ve witnessed in recent years. Despite talking about non-intervention, he doesn’t practice it. Why? Perhaps he’s lost control. It seems he repeats the opinion of whoever he last spoke to. We often see this approach in his administration. Yet he should listen to realistic thinkers, even his own instincts. But he doesn’t.

You’ve been closely following and reporting on the Middle East for years, and you know the American perspective very well. So, in your opinion, does Trump’s Middle East strategy really fit into an understandable framework? Balances in the region are changing rapidly—the push to overthrow Assad, the genocide unfolding in Gaza, Israel’s increasing aggression… In light of all these developments, do you have a clear view of what kind of strategy Trump is pursuing in the Middle East?

Getting a free plane from Qatar, arranging real estate deals in Gaza and elsewhere when he leaves office—Trump’s Middle East “strategy” basically boils down to this. There are even rumors he has plans to build a tower in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. So, he doesn’t understand the Middle East; he only understands real estate deals. He has no idea about the region’s history. He can’t grasp the Palestinian issue. He still sees Gaza as a high-crime neighborhood in New York. He’s ignorant of fundamental historical facts like the role of Western Europe, especially Britain and France, in the post-Ottoman Middle East, the Sykes-Picot Agreement, and the establishment of Lebanon and Syria. He also doesn’t understand how the US took over regional dominance from Britain after the 1956 Suez Crisis and how it supported Israel as a proxy power. Today, the fact that Arab regimes are abandoning the Palestinians through the Abraham Accords is seen by Trump as “peace.” Yet the result was the catastrophe in Gaza—a process that essentially laid the groundwork for genocide.

No one is taking action except the Yemenis—including your president [referring to Turkey’s president]. He constantly says nice things, but as far as I know, he’s still sending oil to Israel. As for Trump, what primarily motivates him is his personal wealth. He defends Israel because he received $100 million from the Israel lobby, especially from the late wealthy donor Miriam Adelson. Like many American politicians, he instinctively tends to defend Israel no matter what. However, a break is now occurring. More and more people are raising their voices because Israel’s practices of genocide and ethnic cleansing are completely out in the open. They are no longer hidden or concealed. Those making these statements are far-right figures in the Israeli government. These individuals, once considered marginal, Kahanist-line figures [followers of Meir Kahane’s extremist ideology], are now in power. And they are trying to realize the dream of “Greater Israel.” What we are witnessing in Gaza is the most extreme point of this process—literally an attempt at a “final solution.” So, what is Trump doing in the meantime? He’s dreaming of a golf course in Gaza. We’re talking about a situation this pathological.

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Interview

Former European Parliament Türkiye Rapporteur Kati Piri spoke to Harici: EU doesn’t have a coherent strategy on Türkiye

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Kati Piri, a Dutch member of parliament and former rapporteur on Türkiye’s EU accession in the European Parliament, offered a perspective on the current state of EU–Türkiye relations to Harici.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık/ Brussels

Drawing on her experience in foreign affairs, Kati Piri reflects on the political developments in Türkiye and the EU’s increasingly transactional stance toward Ankara.

In this interview, she discusses the challenges of maintaining a values-based foreign policy, the implications of shifting political dynamics in both Europe and Türkiye, and the future of cooperation on issues such as migration, defense, and the customs union.

Kati Piri also shares her views on broader global developments, including the war in Ukraine, the return of Donald Trump, and the rise, and in her view, recent decline, of far-right populism across Europe.

How do you see the current political developments in Türkiye, especially regarding both Imamoglu’s arrest?

Well, to start with, the political witch-hunt against Imamoglu, which led to his arrest, made us very concerned. Although Türkiye is still not a full autocracy like Russia, Türkiye has turned the page in the wrong direction.

The European Parliament has concluded that Türkiye’s EU accession process is effectively frozen. Given your experience as a former rapporteur, do you think the EU still has a credible and coherent strategy toward Türkiye?

I totally understand why the European Parliament said this. How can you say anything else when the main opposition leader is in prison? We didn’t see any positive developments regarding Türkiye’s accession over the years. So I fully understand that when it comes to a coherent view of the EU as a whole, which is of course much bigger than the EP, that has been lacking for many years.

I don’t know how the EU managed to position itself in a way where many Turkish democrats are very disappointed in how the EU positions itself vis-à-vis the President Erdoğan regime. If you disappoint the people who share European values like rule of law, human rights, etc. in Türkiye, then the EU did something wrong.

I don’t think the EU has a good strategy toward Türkiye. I think Europe is very much driven by very short-term personal interests. And now with the war in Ukraine and general security concerns in Europe, if those who are destroying democracy and freedom at home are seen as partners, that is also a threat to Europe. It’s more of a threat than an ally to Europe. In conclusion, Europe’s strategy toward Türkiye is very short-sighted. It’s unfortunately been the case for many years.

There’s a growing sense that the EU is moving away from the accession model and toward a strategic partnership with Türkiye. Do you see this as a pragmatic adjustment, or an admission of failure?

Look, on the one hand, you can’t talk about a regime that is destroying democracy in Türkiye. In that respect, strategic partnership, I understand it. But also, as Europe, you have a responsibility to your own values.

I don’t have the feeling that we always stand up for those values or the people who defend them in Türkiye. That’s where my main criticism is. I would say since the Syria crisis in 2015, Europe has been pretty silent in my view on the deterioration of democracy in Türkiye. Plus, it lost a lot of credibility among democrats in Türkiye, which I would say is the largest part of the population, and strengthened the current Turkish government by being silent.

I think it is in Europe’s and the people of my country’s interest that Türkiye is a democracy. Europe, in a way, gave up on that and focused on short-term cooperation like migration.

Is this why, for example, the EU leaders visited President Erdoğan in the last couple of months, and Hakan Fidan was invited to EU foreign minister meetings? These resumed in 2024 after a long period. Do you think the EU is trying to keep Türkiye close on transactional matters like migration and security, not as part of accession, but just as a strategic partner?

Look, in general, I always say that even if we don’t agree with the Turkish government, it is important to convey the message. I’m in favor of meetings and discussions, but you need to have your priorities right and raise your concerns.

My criticism is that the EU acts like Imamoglu isn’t in prison. Europe forgets that it not only has values but also tools against Türkiye. Europe is the biggest investor in Türkiye, and it should use this much more smartly than it does now.

Realistically speaking, not what should be, but what do you think is going to happen? Do you think the EU’s shift to the right, where right-wing politicians prefer transactional deals over full accession, will push Türkiye and the EU closer on security or migration cooperation?

Look, I would hope to be close with Türkiye, with a democratic Türkiye. Because that would be, I think, in the interest of both. Right?

I don’t think we should get close with a more autocratic Türkiye, where it’s normal to jail your opponents. That does not make Europe safer in any way, and it doesn’t make Türkiye safer either.

Having said that, we have an extreme right-wing majority in the Dutch parliament and also a very right-wing government, which is very transactional. But still, when I handed in the motion that we cannot start concluding the customs union as long as the verdicts of the European court is respected.

So the Dutch parliament will block any progress on this as long as verdicts of the European court are not respected. In that respect, I still see that it won’t be as easy as some people think to convince all 27 countries to forget about democracy in Türkiye.

Ms. Piri, we are witnessing a global geopolitical realignment: the war in Ukraine, a second Trump term, tensions in the Middle East, and the changing situation in Syria. How do you see EU–Türkiye relations repositioning within today’s Europe, Türkiye, and the broader world order?

Well, I think in general, if you just look at it from a citizen’s point of view, the world has become, in a way, more fragile, and international law is almost out the window.

I don’t want to see again a world carved up by big powers deciding on zones of interest. I think it’s important that when we see positive developments, and let’s be clear, the disappearance of Assad from Syria is, in itself, a positive development, then it is the obligation of the international community to make sure that an inclusive, democratic process gets a chance in Syria.

I don’t think we can expect regime change in Russia anytime soon, which means that’s a clear threat. At least, it’s a clear threat that our citizens feel.

Within NATO, for instance, my country has always relied on our big transatlantic neighbor, the United States. And I think Europe as a whole has come to realize we cannot automatically rely on the Americans anymore.

Now there’s all this discussion: “We need Türkiye because we can’t rely on the Americans. We need them for military cooperation.”

But the values Ukrainians are defending every day are the values of democracy and freedom. We can only fight this with an alliance where everyone agrees on these values. So if we have a Turkish regime destroying democracy at home, that’s not our ally. These are the powers we are fighting against.

Perhaps finally, I’d say it’s very important to watch what is happening with populist, extreme right-wing parties in Europe since Trump’s election. They’re all losing, not only in Europe; we saw it in Canada, Romania etc.. People are seeing the consequences in their daily lives, and they don’t want this.

So you see populist autocratic parties losing across Europe. I cannot imagine that in Türkiye the public isn’t showing similar sentiments.

That’s very interesting, because in Portugal the far-right gained ground recently, and people fear that AfD might even become the first party in Germany in the future. Do you really believe the far-right is losing in Europe?

Let’s see if it stays that way. For now, they are. You saw it in France. You see it in the Netherlands, the far right won the national elections, and they are now declining in the polls.

Yes, it’s worrying what’s happening in Germany, but clearly, AfD did not win the election. So now it’s up to the government to deliver on people’s concerns and make sure they won’t win the next elections.

I think there’s a chance for what we call liberal democrats, I even say this as a social democrat, but you see what I mean. It’s not about ideology. It’s about defending international law, rule of law, and human rights.

This might gain traction again because we’re seeing a moment where the radical right is damaging itself. Trump is damaging the radical right in Europe, and that’s a good thing.

President Erdoğan recently met with Italian Prime Minister Meloni. She never spoke about democracy in Türkiye. He also has good relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and Slovak leader Fico. Do you think this makes EU–Türkiye relations more complicated?

I think it’s true there’s an international pack of autocrats. I would say Netanyahu is also linked to the same group. Of course, that’s not where President Erdoğan is aligning himself. But let’s be honest, it’s all the same tendencies, national conservatism, “family values” in a way that excludes minorities, women, all to gain and retain power. That’s the goal.

To marginalize the democratic part of society. We see this playbook worldwide. It’s time for progressive leaders to work much more closely, internationally, to defend the values our parents and grandparents fought for, which are now under attack.

This is why I was proud of the PES going immediately to Türkiye and standing with the CHP when Imamoglu was arrested. We need to help each other more. I’m sure the general public will turn, and we can win this fight, but we need to stand together.

I’d like to ask about migration. It seems that the EU, including the Netherlands, is shifting rightward on this. Is there a contradiction between people’s concerns about far-right rise and the fact that Brussels and national governments are implementing similar policies?

Let it be clear, I do not agree with the migration policy of my government. I’m in the main opposition party, and I think what they are doing will neither solve the migration problem nor reduce the number of people coming.

We have issues with housing. People are waiting two years before their applications are even reviewed. The idea that making it unattractive for migrants will stop them from coming is not based on facts. I’m very worried about the criminalization of people seeking refuge, and how this narrative has gained traction, including in Germany and my country.

Progressive parties need a clear alternative. Yes, every country has an absorption capacity. But let’s be honest, refugees are not the reason the economy is suffering. The far-right has had too much space to tell people that every problem in their life is caused by refugees. It’s simply not true.

My final question: What is your and your party’s stance on the ongoing trade war, which Trump recently backed off from a bit, and the issue of increased military spending ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in the Netherlands?

When it comes to the trade war, I think this is a very dangerous development.

Trump’s economic philosophy is not supported by any serious economist. It damages free trade globally and will also damage the U.S. long-term. Countries may divest from the U.S., making it a poorer country. Starting a trade war with your biggest allies is crazy. Trump is backed by the richest people who want no rules, they want to make more money at the expense of normal people. Europe must be strong, stand together, negotiate as a bloc, and hit back when necessary.

As for the NATO summit, I see two trends. First, with Russian aggression since the 2022 full-scale invasion, Europe has become less safe. We face daily threats, not tanks in Amsterdam, but cyberattacks, sabotage, Russian ships gathering intelligence. We’re already in a grey zone.

Second, we cannot take for granted that the U.S. will show up if a NATO country is attacked. So Europe must urgently prepare to defend itself, which we cannot do today without the U.S.
This summit is very important. But it won’t be easy to get all NATO countries on board regarding spending and unity. Let’s be honest, Trump’s values are more aligned with President Putin than with mine.

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Interview

‘The German media acts like the government’s public relations department’

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Following the October 7 Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, European and US media outlets began publishing reports that were almost entirely identical to Israeli military statements. Just like in the Ukraine war, not only is taking a different side out of the question, but even expressing neutral opinions has become enough to be labeled as ‘anti-Semite.’ Similar to how displaying Soviet-Russian symbols on the streets is seen as a police matter, Palestinian flags, keffiyehs, pro-Palestinian slogans, graffiti, and banners have become the focus of prosecution or social isolation.

It is clear that Germany and the German media are leading the way in this regard. The “Staatsräson” (“state reason”) formulated during Angela Merkel’s tenure had placed Israel’s existence and security in a position where it was unacceptable to even discuss them within the German state and politics. Indeed, after October 7, both former Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, a member of the coalition partner Greens, frequently brought this issue to the fore. The German media also enthusiastically embraced the German state mind’s stance on Israel.

Journalist Fabian Goldmann publishes articles on his personal blog exposing how the German media acts like a Federal Foreign Office bureau on Israel. The influence of Israel in the media has progressed so far that the spokesperson for the Israeli army in Germany even published a list of journalists under the headline “10 people spreading hatred of Jews.” Goldmann is one of those on the list.

We met with Goldmann in Berlin and discussed the German media, how the Palestinian issue is covered in the media, journalistic standards, and the future of Germany and the German media.

Let’s first talk about German media coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza. As you’ve pointed out several times in your articles, the German media strongly supports Israel over the Palestinians and doesn’t allow critical or alternative voices in favor of the Palestinian cause. What do you think about this coverage? How and why does the German media choose to report on the Gaza war in this way?

We could talk about this for hours, but I’ll try to summarize a few key points. You said they don’t allow Palestinian voices—I wouldn’t say they don’t allow them at all. Occasionally, Palestinian perspectives are included, and there are some decent articles on what’s happening in Gaza.

However, the problem is that 99% of the coverage is really, really bad. We’re used to this in Germany. Right-wing media typically handle topics like Israel, Islam, migration, and refugees in a biased way. But what’s new since October 7 is that even the mainstream media—public broadcasters and traditionally left-wing newspapers like taz, or left-liberal ones like Die Zeit—are doing a terrible job. They’ve always leaned in this direction, but now it’s extreme.

The first sign that something had shifted came immediately after October 7, when all newspapers published unverified stories about babies being burned in ovens, women being raped, and dead bodies mutilated—without credible sources. Even left-wing outlets reported this. At the same time, there were no Palestinian voices. Everything was reported from the perspective of the Israeli army. Israeli army spokespersons were featured on major news shows and talk shows like Tagesschau.

I recently conducted a study on the perspectives shown in Tagesschau. Israeli officials appeared 134 times, while Palestinian officials were featured only four times. That’s about the same screen time as officials from Belgium or Luxembourg, which is absurd given the context.

It’s always been bad—coverage of the wars in Iraq, Syria, or Ukraine was also problematic—but it’s never been this one-sided. The Israeli army’s narrative dominates headlines and lead paragraphs. You usually have to read the fifth or seventh paragraph before the Palestinian perspective appears, if at all.

Even when highly credible organizations like the United Nations, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Save the Children, or Oxfam contradict the Israeli narrative—labeling the war as genocide or pointing out that civilians are being targeted instead of just Hamas—the German media still largely adheres to the Israeli army’s version.

After October 7, some British alternative media outlets exposed that Israeli army officials met with UK media executives. Do you have any evidence of similar meetings between Israeli officials and German media groups?

It’s no secret that the Israeli government exerts pressure on German media. Reporters Without Borders recently published a report on press freedom in Germany, based on interviews with about 60 editors and journalists. Many said the Israeli embassy—along with organizations like the Deutsch-Israelische Gesellschaft (German-Israeli Society)—frequently calls editors-in-chief to complain about coverage.

I’ve also heard of cases where they provided lists of journalists they disapprove of and asked media executives to fire them. Israeli embassy staff often contact German journalists directly. I myself was listed by Arye Sharuz Shalicar, the Israeli army spokesperson in Germany, as one of the “top 10 German anti-Semites or Israel haters.”

If a Russian politician had done something similar, there would’ve been a national uproar, with journalist organizations and editors-in-chief speaking out. But when Israel does it, there’s complete silence. Even the bosses of affected journalists don’t defend them.

A lot of those in charge of German media are affiliated with pro-Israel or pro-transatlantic organizations. Culturally, many German journalists don’t see their role as holding power to account. Instead, they report what politicians do: portraying politics rather than scrutinizing it.

If you watch Al Jazeera, BBC, or even Russia Today, their interviews with politicians are far more critical. German media generally echoes what politicians say, often adopting their agendas; not only on Israel, but also on migration, COVID-19, and Ukraine.

This bias is amplified when it comes to Israel. In Germany, the political spectrum concerning Israel is extremely narrow. Even parties with differing views on sending weapons to Israel don’t challenge the basic pro-Israel stance. There are no parties that support Palestinian resistance.

Another factor is racism. Some studies show that many journalists genuinely believe there’s a cultural war between Israel —representing democracy and liberalism— and Islam —seen as barbaric. Palestinians are often portrayed as terrorists. One Die Zeit headline even claimed there were no Palestinian civilians—an appalling view that suggests Palestinian lives are worth less than European lives.

This issue goes back decades. Studies consistently show that Islam is portrayed negatively in German media and is always linked to terrorism or violence. Migrants are overrepresented in crime stories compared to actual statistics. It all ties into racism, stereotypes, and Islamophobia.

Since October 7, there’s also been a surge in campaigns targeting anyone who speaks out for Palestinian rights—journalists, cultural figures, politicians, Jewish artists, and academics. If you publicly use terms like “apartheid” or “genocide,” you risk losing your job or being labeled antisemitic or Islamist.

There was a journalist named Michael Muhammad who worked for a public broadcaster. He tweeted something like, “What do you expect from Palestinians when they have no other way to fight for freedom?” This triggered a massive campaign against him, and he was fired within two hours without even a proper conversation. That was just the first of many such cases.

Al Jazeera published a solid report a few months ago about Deutsche Welle, exposing its suppression of pro-Palestinian or Israel-critical voices. Many journalists from outlets like Tagesschau or Spiegel write to me privately. They agree with my blog and interviews but don’t dare speak up. They’re considering quitting.

I read about Axel Springer having an unofficial or even written policy requiring employees to be pro-Israel. Is that true?

It’s not unofficial, it’s written in the contract. Axel Springer explicitly requires employees to support Israel and the market economy. Deutsche Welle adopted something similar after a scandal two years ago in which 8–10 Arab-background editors were fired for allegedly promoting antisemitism due to old social media posts. It ended in the company modifying their contracts.

Is there rising antisemitism in Germany post-October 7? How can we measure that?

Official statistics have spiked, including those from the Ministry of the Interior and various NGOs. But these stats have a fundamental flaw: they count anti-Israel positions as antisemitism. For example, pro-Palestinian slogans or clashes with police at demonstrations are recorded as antisemitic incidents.

So, do I think antisemitism has actually increased? Honestly, I don’t know. The statistics are so distorted that they’re no longer reliable. There’s little serious research that separates genuine antisemitism—such as attacks on Jews for being Jewish—from political positions critical of Israel.

You’ve followed the German media for years. How does it compare to media environments in other Western countries?

A big difference is that in Germany, biased reporting on Israel spans the entire political spectrum—from left to right. In the U.S., CNN or NBC are bad, but you also have great outlets like Democracy Now! or The Intercept. In the UK, the BBC is awful, but The Guardian occasionally offers quality reporting. Even in Israel, while the Jerusalem Post is terrible, Haaretz and +972 Magazine provide balanced perspectives.

Germany has no equivalent. There are a few small, independent outlets, but they have tiny readerships. Additionally, while British media still include Palestinian and independent perspectives, German media rely almost exclusively on Israeli sources.

BBC or CNN will at least phrase things like, “Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by Western governments.” In contrast, German media simply say, “the terrorist organization Hamas,” fully adopting the government’s viewpoint.

Could you be convicted for saying Hamas isn’t a terrorist organization in Germany?

As a journalist, you have some freedom. For private citizens, I’m not sure of the legal implications—it might be considered a gray area.

Another point—German media do almost no investigative journalism on Gaza. Can you explain this phenomenon?

Yes, this is a huge issue. When Gaza schools are bombed, German media report what Hamas and the Israeli army say, then conclude, “We can’t verify the facts due to the fog of war.” But independent journalists and international NGOs can verify these facts—and often do.

The problem is not just lack of access but lack of effort. In many countries, contradictory reports prompt actual investigation. In Germany, that’s where journalism stops. They simply echo Israeli claims and tell viewers they can’t know what’s true.

What’s your view on the media being called the “fourth estate”? How does it apply in Germany? Is the media powerful in Germany?

Yes, the media are powerful, but the real question is how they use that power. Instead of holding power to account, German media often align with those in power. They are more like PR departments for the government.

Take a Tagesschau segment and compare it with a Foreign Ministry press release, it’s nearly identical. This was true during COVID-19, on Ukraine, on migration policy—and it’s true now with Israel.

Could future clashes between the German government and a possible Trump administration over Israel or Ukraine create space for alternative voices in German media?

I doubt it. Even if Trump tries to expel Palestinians from Gaza and calls it the “Palestinian Riviera Plan,” I think Germany would still support it—just as they’ve supported bombings of hospitals and mass displacement in Gaza.

I can’t recall a time when Germany stood up to the U.S. on any major foreign policy issue. They support Washington at all costs. I don’t see the media or government changing.

From time to time, there are a couple of decent Tagesschau reports. People hoped the International Court of Justice ruling or Amnesty’s report labeling the conflict a genocide would change something. But nothing ever changes. Within weeks, the media went back to talking about “Hamas command centers.”

The only hope I have is that German media are losing relevance. People are turning to TikTok, Instagram, blogs, and independent platforms. They’re organizing protests, forming new coalitions—Palestinians, Jewish activists, intellectuals, and others. That grassroots activism is where change might come from, not the system itself.

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