European nations are drafting a “deterrence plan” to counter the possibility of a US move against Greenland, according to a report by Politico citing officials, diplomats, and NATO sources.

Speaking to the magazine, one European diplomat emphasized the need for readiness. “We must be prepared for a direct confrontation with Trump. He is acting in an aggressive mode, and we need to be ready for that,” the diplomat stated.

An anonymous German official told Politico that Johann Wadephul, a senior member of the German parliament, and his colleagues are working on deterrent measures Europe could implement in the event of a potential US invasion. Additionally, the possibility of increasing NATO’s presence in the immediate vicinity of the island is being examined.

Europe’s three options on the table: Conciliation, financing, and economic warfare

Based on statements from the officials interviewed, Politico categorized Europe’s potential responses into three main pillars. The first option focuses on conciliation.

A former high-ranking NATO official suggested that the alliance could act as a mediator between Denmark, Greenland, and the US. “Everything possible must be done to increase the alliance’s presence near Greenland and to meet Trump’s demands,” the diplomat said.

The second option involves Europe significantly increasing its financial support to Greenland.

Following Trump’s promises of massive investment should the island join the US, the European Union and Denmark are attempting to convince Greenland that they can offer a “more profitable alternative.” Brussels plans to more than double the funding provided to Greenland starting in 2028, though this spending increase has not yet been formally approved within the EU.

“Planning a security strategy to protect against America is madness”

The third option involves a direct economic response to the US. Thomas Crosby, an expert on the US armed forces at the Royal Danish Defence College, recalled that the EU had previously drafted plans to ensure European and Arctic security without the US during Trump’s first term.

“It is difficult, but possible. However, I don’t think anyone is seriously considering how to ensure Europe’s security against America. This is literal madness,” Crosby remarked.

One of the primary tools available is the “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” often referred to as an “economic bazooka.” This mechanism includes measures such as tariffs, taxes on American companies, and bans on investment in the European economy.

However, should the US decide to take control of Greenland by force, the chances of Europeans preventing it are seen as extremely low. Crosby suggested that if the Americans were to send a small military group, an attempt could be made to arrest them. A European diplomat added that France and Germany could potentially deploy troops to deter an invasion if requested by Denmark.

White House: Use of military force is always at the Commander-in-Chief’s disposal

Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of using military force to establish control over Greenland. The US President has stated that his country “desperately needs” the territory within the context of international security.

While Jeff Landry, Trump’s Special Envoy for Greenland, stated that the US goal is “not to conquer anyone” but rather to offer “economic power and protection,” statements from the White House suggest a different tone.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed congressional leaders that Trump is intent on purchasing Greenland and is using bellicose rhetoric to pressure Denmark into negotiations. Rubio reportedly made these comments during a briefing regarding an operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, after Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked whether military force would be used elsewhere, including Mexico and Greenland.

The White House has not publicly rejected the military option. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “President Trump has made it clear that the acquisition of Greenland is a US national security priority and is vital for deterring our adversaries in the Arctic region. The President and his team are discussing a range of options to achieve this important foreign policy goal, and of course, the use of the US armed forces is always at the discretion of the Commander-in-Chief.”

The Micronesia model?

Furthermore, a senior US official speaking to Reuters said that Trump and his advisors are discussing various methods to acquire Greenland, including a direct purchase or a “Free Association” agreement.

Such agreements, which the US maintains with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau, stipulate that these territories are not part of the US, but Washington provides them with protection and free trade. In exchange, the US military is permitted to operate on these lands without restriction.

“Diplomacy and deal-making are always the first option for the President. He loves deals. Therefore, if there is an opportunity to make a profitable deal to acquire Greenland, he will instinctively prefer that option,” the official said.

Thomas Crosby of the Royal Danish Defence College emphasized that such a deal would not necessarily benefit Greenland. “Trump’s fundamental approach is to impose his will on the people he negotiates with. In both his private and public life, he has repeatedly betrayed those he made deals with, failed to fulfill his obligations, and exploited those around him,” Crosby evaluated.

According to Crosby, it would be “madness” for Greenlanders to accept anything in the hope of a fair deal. The expert noted that the worst-case scenario, should Trump decide to use force, would be a “fait accompli strategy” similar to Putin’s attempt to seize Ukraine. In this scenario, Trump could simply send troops and declare that Greenland now belongs to the US.

“It would take half an hour for the capital Nuuk to fall”

Lin Mortensgaard, an expert on Greenlandic security at the Danish Institute for International Studies, stated that whether the US uses only the troops already stationed at its military base on the island or deploys special forces, it could seize control of the capital, Nuuk, in “half an hour or less.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasized earlier this week that such an event would signal the end of the current global order. “The international community as we know it, the democratic rules of the game, and NATO, the world’s most powerful defense alliance… if one NATO country decides to attack another, all of this collapses,” Frederiksen stated.