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Europe prepares deterrence strategy against potential US move on Greenland

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European nations are drafting a “deterrence plan” to counter the possibility of a US move against Greenland, according to a report by Politico citing officials, diplomats, and NATO sources.

Speaking to the magazine, one European diplomat emphasized the need for readiness. “We must be prepared for a direct confrontation with Trump. He is acting in an aggressive mode, and we need to be ready for that,” the diplomat stated.

An anonymous German official told Politico that Johann Wadephul, a senior member of the German parliament, and his colleagues are working on deterrent measures Europe could implement in the event of a potential US invasion. Additionally, the possibility of increasing NATO’s presence in the immediate vicinity of the island is being examined.

Europe’s three options on the table: Conciliation, financing, and economic warfare

Based on statements from the officials interviewed, Politico categorized Europe’s potential responses into three main pillars. The first option focuses on conciliation.

A former high-ranking NATO official suggested that the alliance could act as a mediator between Denmark, Greenland, and the US. “Everything possible must be done to increase the alliance’s presence near Greenland and to meet Trump’s demands,” the diplomat said.

The second option involves Europe significantly increasing its financial support to Greenland.

Following Trump’s promises of massive investment should the island join the US, the European Union and Denmark are attempting to convince Greenland that they can offer a “more profitable alternative.” Brussels plans to more than double the funding provided to Greenland starting in 2028, though this spending increase has not yet been formally approved within the EU.

“Planning a security strategy to protect against America is madness”

The third option involves a direct economic response to the US. Thomas Crosby, an expert on the US armed forces at the Royal Danish Defence College, recalled that the EU had previously drafted plans to ensure European and Arctic security without the US during Trump’s first term.

“It is difficult, but possible. However, I don’t think anyone is seriously considering how to ensure Europe’s security against America. This is literal madness,” Crosby remarked.

One of the primary tools available is the “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” often referred to as an “economic bazooka.” This mechanism includes measures such as tariffs, taxes on American companies, and bans on investment in the European economy.

However, should the US decide to take control of Greenland by force, the chances of Europeans preventing it are seen as extremely low. Crosby suggested that if the Americans were to send a small military group, an attempt could be made to arrest them. A European diplomat added that France and Germany could potentially deploy troops to deter an invasion if requested by Denmark.

White House: Use of military force is always at the Commander-in-Chief’s disposal

Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of using military force to establish control over Greenland. The US President has stated that his country “desperately needs” the territory within the context of international security.

While Jeff Landry, Trump’s Special Envoy for Greenland, stated that the US goal is “not to conquer anyone” but rather to offer “economic power and protection,” statements from the White House suggest a different tone.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed congressional leaders that Trump is intent on purchasing Greenland and is using bellicose rhetoric to pressure Denmark into negotiations. Rubio reportedly made these comments during a briefing regarding an operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, after Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked whether military force would be used elsewhere, including Mexico and Greenland.

The White House has not publicly rejected the military option. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “President Trump has made it clear that the acquisition of Greenland is a US national security priority and is vital for deterring our adversaries in the Arctic region. The President and his team are discussing a range of options to achieve this important foreign policy goal, and of course, the use of the US armed forces is always at the discretion of the Commander-in-Chief.”

The Micronesia model?

Furthermore, a senior US official speaking to Reuters said that Trump and his advisors are discussing various methods to acquire Greenland, including a direct purchase or a “Free Association” agreement.

Such agreements, which the US maintains with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau, stipulate that these territories are not part of the US, but Washington provides them with protection and free trade. In exchange, the US military is permitted to operate on these lands without restriction.

“Diplomacy and deal-making are always the first option for the President. He loves deals. Therefore, if there is an opportunity to make a profitable deal to acquire Greenland, he will instinctively prefer that option,” the official said.

Thomas Crosby of the Royal Danish Defence College emphasized that such a deal would not necessarily benefit Greenland. “Trump’s fundamental approach is to impose his will on the people he negotiates with. In both his private and public life, he has repeatedly betrayed those he made deals with, failed to fulfill his obligations, and exploited those around him,” Crosby evaluated.

According to Crosby, it would be “madness” for Greenlanders to accept anything in the hope of a fair deal. The expert noted that the worst-case scenario, should Trump decide to use force, would be a “fait accompli strategy” similar to Putin’s attempt to seize Ukraine. In this scenario, Trump could simply send troops and declare that Greenland now belongs to the US.

“It would take half an hour for the capital Nuuk to fall”

Lin Mortensgaard, an expert on Greenlandic security at the Danish Institute for International Studies, stated that whether the US uses only the troops already stationed at its military base on the island or deploys special forces, it could seize control of the capital, Nuuk, in “half an hour or less.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasized earlier this week that such an event would signal the end of the current global order. “The international community as we know it, the democratic rules of the game, and NATO, the world’s most powerful defense alliance… if one NATO country decides to attack another, all of this collapses,” Frederiksen stated.

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German officials urge fighter jet alliance with Sweden and Spain

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German Defence Ministry officials have advised Berlin to form a new fighter jet partnership with Sweden and Spain rather than join an existing UK-led consortium.

Internal ministry assessment notes obtained by Politico state that a trilateral arrangement among Germany, Sweden, and Spain represents a “more advantageous and promising” approach than joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) run by the UK, Italy, and Japan.

The proposal outlined in the document does not yet represent a final government decision, nor does it contain any indication that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has approved the recommendation.

The advice was drafted after Germany’s flagship project with France to build a next-generation fighter jet collapsed in June following years of industrial infighting.

Initiated in 2017 and later joined by Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) was conceived as a showcase initiative for European defence cooperation. The partnership aimed to develop an aircraft to replace Germany’s Eurofighter fleet starting in 2040.

However, the initiative foundered on disputes over operational control and workshare between France-based Dassault and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space. Following unsuccessful rescue attempts at the political level, Berlin withdrew from the joint fighter project this year.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the prospect of Germany joining GCAP during an 8 October meeting in Berlin with Friedrich Merz. The two leaders agreed that officials should continue discussions.

For Berlin, the choice carries implications that reach far beyond which model its air force will fly. The decision will determine who controls future military technology, which countries secure production contracts, and whether a new European partnership can avoid the frictions that dismantled FCAS.

Ministry assessment keeps distance from UK-partnered GCAP project

The ministry assessment listed several reservations regarding the GCAP project. The report argued that the existing programme focuses on operations beyond Germany’s capability requirements, whereas Berlin needs an aircraft better suited for missions over continental Europe.

The document also noted that German manufacturers would struggle to secure a significant share of development and production work within an already established partnership.

Invoking past experiences with the Eurofighter programme, which was developed in the 1990s and entered service in the early 2000s, the document took direct aim at British defence contractor BAE Systems.

The German Defence Ministry assessment accused BAE Systems of prioritizing exports over the development interests of Germany and Italy, warning that British dominance would prove incompatible with an equal partnership.

By contrast, the document stated that the military requirements of Germany, Sweden, and Spain align closely and that their starting positions are well balanced.

The assessment proposed an industrial partnership between aerospace giant Airbus and Sweden’s Saab, while recommending that the Saab-manufactured Gripen E fighter jet serve as a technological stepping stone until the new aircraft is developed.

The German Defence Ministry declined to comment on the matter. A separate ministry note, however, recorded British efforts to integrate Germany into GCAP as an observer or participant, asking German officials to examine potential industrial roles and military requirements.

An Airbus spokesperson said the company was “generally open to cooperation”, provided that German and Spanish industry secured a “substantial and equal role” across development, production, and operational phases.

“Purely political decisions without an industrial foundation remain insufficient,” the spokesperson said, urging authorities in Berlin and Madrid to clarify the path forward swiftly.

In an interview published in Handelsblatt on Monday, Airbus defence chief Michael Schollhorn pointed to ties with Saab, noting that the two companies have always worked well together.

A Saab spokesperson also indicated that the company is receptive to broad defence cooperation, including in fighter aircraft.

Emphasizing that large-scale collaborative projects are handled at the political level and that participation decisions rest with the respective governments, the spokesperson said: “All questions regarding potential Swedish participation should be directed to the Swedish government. Saab stands ready, as always, to support Sweden’s future fighter aircraft requirements.”

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EU reopens debate on naming envoy for Ukraine talks with Putin

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The European Union has returned to the idea of appointing an envoy to hold talks on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico, this search gained fresh momentum following a visit to Russia by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy.

During his trip, Witkoff proposed to Putin that Russia, the US, and Ukraine hold trilateral talks.

European countries, meanwhile, fear that Washington could accept terms unfavourable to Kyiv in negotiations that exclude them.

Sources speaking to Politico said the names being discussed for the envoy role include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

Some European diplomats believe Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate for the post.

Stubb’s good relations with Trump and Finland’s experience in dealing with Russia are cited among the factors setting him apart.

An unnamed EU diplomat described Stubb as the only European politician so far to have demonstrated senior-level leadership.

Another group of diplomats argues that Costa should lead the talks. European leaders asked Costa during last week’s EU summit in Brussels whether the time had come to speak with Putin.

Politico’s source recounted that exchange: “Costa said no, saying he would not speak to Putin right now. But if we want to play a role in the negotiations, Costa still needs to initiate dialogue with Putin.”

According to an assessment by another source, the European Council president could serve as a more neutral mediator than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are seen as overly focused on supporting Ukraine.

“Three or four people cannot go there with each of us speaking on behalf of the European Union,” one of the sources told the publication. “Ultimately, the choice of who represents the EU must be based on maximum efficiency, not on a personal power struggle or someone’s narcissistic ambitions.”

Politico previously reported in January that the EU was considering appointing a special representative for Ukraine negotiations. At the time, the initiative drew support from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Putin said he was ready to negotiate with European countries, but asserted that Europe had “no peace agenda” and stood “on the side of war”.

The Russian leader also named former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as Moscow’s preferred negotiator from Europe.

Kallas ruled out such an appointment, noting that Schröder was “a lobbyist for Russian state companies” and would sit “on both sides of the negotiating table”.

Stubb details obstacles to talks and Oslo diplomatic drive

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the principal obstacle to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine was the territorial issue.

Stubb took part in talks in Oslo with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who subsequently travelled to Saint Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin.

As reported by the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb stated that advancing the peace process required either bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine or trilateral negotiations involving the US.

The Finnish president listed the other major items to be addressed within a settlement as US security guarantees for Ukraine and the construction of a new European security architecture after the war ends.

Without stating it outright, Stubb implied that the core issue within this framework was Ukraine’s NATO membership. The Finnish leader pointed to monitoring the ceasefire, establishing the line of contact, ensuring energy and food security, and exchanging prisoners as practical tasks.

Stubb also detailed the talks held in Oslo on 20 October, which included Witkoff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

The discussions, which spanned approximately eight hours across various formats, had three objectives: to lower tensions in public discourse, to convey European and Ukrainian proposals to the US envoy before his visit to Russia, and to determine the next steps toward a peaceful settlement. Stubb announced that these goals had been achieved.

Moscow ready to resume trilateral talks in November

Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov announced that Moscow was prepared to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine during the first half of November.

Ushakov also said that the EU and NATO had begun to “take a more serious approach” to Kremlin proposals on Ukraine, adding that “matters” were moving toward an end to the conflict.

Witkoff described the meeting as “constructive”.

Sources told Bloomberg in September that Putin continued to insist the Donetsk region must come fully under Russian control, expressing confidence that the territory would be captured within the next six months.

Putin previously set conditions for ending the war, demanding that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, maintain a neutral and non-nuclear status, and that anti-Russian sanctions be lifted.

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Trump midterms calculus halts Israeli strike plan against Iran

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A comprehensive military operation planned by the Israeli military for 10 October did not take place because US President Donald Trump chose to avoid a broad conflict before the 3 November congressional midterm elections.

Preparations had been made on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an aerial bombardment meant to last several days, according to a report by the Financial Times citing sources familiar with the matter.

The list of targets included nuclear facilities and locations associated with the Iranian leadership, along with power stations and other civilian infrastructure sites.

The planned strikes were projected to exceed the joint operation launched by the US and Israel in February in terms of intensity.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told the newspaper: “The United States is not going to strike Iran at any point before the midterms.”

Kelly argued that the administration in Tehran was in distress both economically and militarily, adding that the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and US efforts to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were producing results.

Speaking to the newspaper, one source addressed the possibility of strikes resuming in the coming weeks, saying: “There’s either going to be a deal or a strike.”

The same source reported that Washington aims for a comprehensive settlement that resolves the conflict over both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, although it remained unclear whether the US would have participated directly in the cancelled operation.

Another source said the preparations for the operation might have served as leverage to pressure Tehran in negotiations, adding that the final decision on any new military step rests with the US president.

Hegseth reviews updated target list in Israel

An Israeli official said US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October to meet with Netanyahu and senior representatives.

Another source stated that the Israeli side presented an updated target list to its American counterparts, compiled with fresh intelligence and incorporating civilian infrastructure sites that had not been struck earlier this year.

The Pentagon did not respond to questions regarding the meetings, while Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military declined to comment.

Despite the postponement of the operation, Trump and Netanyahu continued to issue military warnings to Iran in public.

In a video released on 19 October, Netanyahu addressed Trump, saying: “Donald, you said we need to finish this, and we will finish it together.” Speaking on speakerphone, Trump responded: “You’re a great warrior, and we’re going to prove it very soon.”

These engagements between the leaders coincide with critical election cycles in both countries.

Parliamentary elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October, one week before the vote in the US.

Most public opinion polls in the country show the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither side commands a clear majority.

Axios, a US-based news outlet, previously reported that the Pentagon instructed military planners to finalize strike plans against Iran, though the directive specified no date and Trump had not reached a final decision.

On 15 October, CNN reported on plans to use the GBU-43/B munition, known as the “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear facilities, with US officials who spoke to the broadcaster expressing scepticism about the weapon’s ability to destroy deep bunkers.

While Tehran announced that it remains open to a diplomatic solution, it declared that any potential operation would draw a fierce response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that if its adversaries chose military conflict, the response would be “much harsher than before”.

Following the joint operation launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, Iran retaliated by striking targets across the region and restricting maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the parties reached an agreement in June covering a ceasefire and negotiations to lift the blockade in the strait, reciprocal strikes between the US and Iran have not ceased.

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