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Fed’s ‘leading inflation’ expectations unchanged; eurozone inflation down to 2.2 per cent

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation held steady at 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to July, according to data released on Friday that could pave the way for the Fed to start cutting interest rates next month.

The Fed’s target for the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index is 2 per cent annually. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, came in at 2.6 per cent, below expectations of 2.7 per cent.

The figures from the Commerce Department came after Fed chairman Jay Powell said last week that it was “time” to start cutting interest rates as inflation fell and the labour market slowed.

The core PCE data, which is expected after yesterday’s strong US growth data, plays an important role in the Fed’s assessment of inflation.

In the US, personal spending rose by 0.5% in July, in line with expectations, and personal income rose by 0.3%, slightly above expectations of 0.2%.

Core PCE measures the rate of inflation faced by consumers when purchasing goods and services, excluding food and energy prices.

US government bond prices fell slightly following the release of the data. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which rises when prices fall, rose 0.03 percentage point during the day to 3.92%. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% shortly after the opening bell on Wall Street.

Eurozone inflation fell sharply in August to 2.2 per cent, the lowest level in three years.

The rate reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates next month.

Friday’s preliminary figure was in line with the 2.2 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll and below last month’s rate of 2.6 per cent.

The Eurostat data came after Germany and Spain this week reported sharper-than-expected declines in August.

France also reported on Friday that inflation fell to 2.2 per cent, but the figure was higher than expected and some economists attributed the drop to price pressures from the Paris Olympics.

AMERICA

Biden plans to write off Ukraine’s $4.6bn debt ahead of Trump

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President Joe Biden’s administration has officially notified Congress of its intention to forgive Ukraine’s $4.65 billion debt, a move tied to ongoing efforts to support the country amid its conflict with Russia.

This debt represents half of the $9 billion provided to Kyiv as part of the $61 billion aid package approved by Washington in April. Unlike other forms of assistance, this funding was issued as conditionally repayable loans, with provisions allowing the United States President to cancel up to 50% of the debt if deemed necessary.

In a statement, the U.S. State Department explained that the debt cancellation is intended to “help Ukraine win” and serves the national interests of the U.S., the EU, G7+, and NATO.”

According to Bloomberg, President Biden is determined to maximize aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office. However, the decision to write off the debt has drawn sharp criticism from Republicans.

Republican Senator Rand Paul argued that the Biden administration’s decision places undue financial burden on the American public. He pledged to demand a vote in the Senate to challenge the proposal.

Despite this, Bloomberg notes that any effort to overturn the debt cancellation would require approval from both houses of Congress, a scenario that appears unlikely given the Democratic majority in the Senate. Furthermore, President Biden holds veto power, making reversal of the decision even more challenging.

Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced plans to exhaust all remaining aid approved by Congress before President Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized that one of the administration’s key goals is to position Ukraine as strongly as possible—both militarily and at the negotiating table.

Pentagon officials reported that $9.3 billion in military aid is currently in the pipeline. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh confirmed plans for weekly arms deliveries to Kyiv, with the aim of expediting aid distribution before the presidential transition.

On November 20, the Pentagon unveiled an additional $275 million military aid package for Ukraine, further underscoring the administration’s commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

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Donald Trump taps Howard Lutnick to lead Commerce Department

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Donald Trump has announced his intention to nominate Wall Street investor and campaign donor Howard Lutnick as the new head of the U.S. Department of Commerce, placing the billionaire at the forefront of implementing the sweeping tariffs promised during his presidential campaign.

Lutnick, who co-chaired Trump’s transition team, had previously been considered for the role of Treasury Secretary. He is also the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent investment firm.

In a statement on Tuesday, Trump declared that Lutnick would be “directly responsible” for leading the Commerce Department and overseeing the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).

The USTR, established in 1974 to manage negotiations with U.S. trading partners, traditionally reports directly to the president. If confirmed by the Senate, the 63-year-old Lutnick will play a pivotal role in aiding U.S. businesses and executing Trump’s proposed tariffs on international trade partners.

Trump has outlined plans for a 60% tariff on imports from China and a global tariff of up to 20%, signaling a major shift in U.S. trade policy.

Lutnick, despite lacking prior government experience, has been a steadfast advocate for Trump’s economic agenda. During a New York campaign rally, Lutnick remarked, “When was America great? At the turn of the century, our economy was floundering! That was 125 years ago. We had no income tax and all we had were tariffs.”

While Lutnick has emerged as a major donor to Trump, he has also supported establishment Democrats and Republicans in the past, including Chuck Schumer and Jeb Bush. He contributed to both Hillary Clinton’s 2008 and 2016 campaigns, hosting a fundraiser for her in 2015. Lutnick maintains a personal friendship with the Clintons, noting their attendance at a Cantor Fitzgerald fundraiser in September 2022.

Lutnick has also maintained a long-standing relationship with Trump, even appearing on The Celebrity Apprentice in 2008. He disclosed to the Financial Times in October that he has donated over $10 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign and another $500,000 to the transition team, totaling approximately $75 million.

Treasury Secretary selection process still uncertain

The position of Treasury Secretary, one of the most significant roles in Trump’s administration, remains undecided. Lutnick’s name has been floated for the role, though he faces competition from hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, private equity billionaire Marc Rowan, and former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh.

Marc Rowan, the CEO of Apollo Global Management, has emerged as a leading contender and is expected to meet with Trump to present his case. Rowan’s supporters cite his extensive expertise in financial markets, though competition remains fierce.

Forecasting site Polymarket currently lists Warsh as the favorite for Treasury Secretary, followed by Bessent, Rowan, and William Hagerty. If unsuccessful in his bid for Treasury Secretary, Bessent is reportedly vying for the chairmanship of the National Economic Council.

Trump names Mehmet Oz to run Medicare and Medicaid

Trump also announced on Tuesday his nomination of Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Describing Oz as “one of the most talented physicians” capable of “making America healthy again,” Trump expressed confidence in Oz’s ability to reduce waste and fraud within the nation’s largest government agency.

Dr. Oz, a former heart surgeon and Columbia University professor, rose to prominence as Oprah Winfrey’s health expert before hosting his own popular talk show. However, his career has been controversial, with critics accusing him of promoting scientifically dubious theories and unproven treatments.

Oz’s political experience includes a 2022 Senate race in Pennsylvania, where he was endorsed by Trump but ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman.

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U.S. may start its plan to separate Google from Chrome

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The Department of Justice (DOJ) may move forward with plans to force the sale of Google’s Chrome web browser as part of its ongoing antitrust case against Alphabet (Google).

According to sources familiar with the case, the department intends to ask the judge—who ruled in August that Google illegally monopolized the search market—to address concerns related to artificial intelligence (AI) and the Android smartphone operating system. This information was reported by Bloomberg.

Antitrust officials, along with participating state attorneys, are expected to recommend that federal Judge Amit Mehta impose data licensing requirements on Google. These officials have indicated that Chrome, the world’s most widely used browser, is a critical gateway for many users accessing Google Search. For this reason, they are urging the judge to mandate the sale of Chrome.

Officials stated that a Chrome sale could be considered later if other settlement measures fail to foster a more competitive market. Currently, Google Chrome commands a dominant 61% share of the U.S. browser market, according to StatCounter, a web traffic analysis service.

Over the past three months, state attorneys interviewed numerous companies to prepare their recommendations. Officials noted that some recommendations are still under review, and details may evolve before submission.

While a proposal to force Google to sell its Android platform was considered, officials have since stepped back from this more aggressive option.

If Judge Mehta adopts these recommendations, the ruling could significantly reshape the online search market and influence the emerging artificial intelligence industry.

The case, originally filed during the Trump administration and continued under President Joe Biden, represents one of the most aggressive efforts to regulate a major tech company in decades. The last comparable attempt was Washington’s unsuccessful bid to break up Microsoft in the early 2000s.

Chrome plays a crucial role in Google’s advertising business by providing user data that enhances ad targeting, a primary revenue source. Additionally, Google has been leveraging Chrome to promote Gemini, its new AI bot. Gemini has the potential to evolve from a simple answer bot to a comprehensive assistant, supporting users across the web.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh estimates that Chrome could be worth $15–20 billion if sold, considering its more than 3 billion monthly active users. However, Bob O’Donnell of TECHnalysis Research notes that Chrome’s value depends on its integration with other services, stating: “It’s not directly monetizable. It acts as a gateway to other things. Monetization would depend on how buyers link Chrome to their services.”

Google has strongly opposed the DOJ’s recommendations. Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice president of regulatory affairs, criticized the move as government overreach, arguing: “This agenda goes far beyond the legal issues in this case and will harm consumers, developers, and American technological leadership at a critical time.”

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt echoed this sentiment in an interview with CNBC. He emphasized the value of Chrome in enhancing the Google ecosystem, stating: “Singling out these companies won’t fundamentally solve the broader issues.”

In a blog post, Google warned that under new ownership, Chrome might no longer remain free or receive the same level of investment, potentially leading to a shift in its business model.

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