Middle East
Gaza reconstruction plan: $53 billion needed, Palestinian Authority to govern
According to a plan devised by Arab leaders, the governance of Gaza will be handed over to the Palestinian Authority.
The “Arab plan,” prepared by Egypt for the reconstruction of Gaza and adopted at the Arab League’s Cairo Summit, envisages the establishment of a temporary administrative committee for a period of six months, followed by the transfer of Gaza’s governance to the Palestinian Authority. The plan suggests that, without explicitly naming Hamas, the group would lay down its arms if a credible political process is initiated.
Egypt has prepared a 91-page plan titled “Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development of Gaza.”
The report on this plan states that the total material damage resulting from Israel’s war of destruction on Gaza amounts to $29.9 billion, with the housing sector being the most affected, costing $15.8 billion and constituting 53% of the total damage.
According to the report, an estimated 30,000 residential buildings have been damaged, of which 272,000 apartments have been completely destroyed, and 58,500 apartments have been partially damaged.
The report indicates that satellite imagery reveals that 1,190 kilometers of Gaza Strip’s roads have been destroyed, with an additional 415 kilometers severely damaged and 1,440 kilometers significantly damaged.
In the health sector, the damage is estimated at $1.3 billion, with losses amounting to $6.3 billion. The report notes that 50% of the hospitals in the Gaza Strip (18 hospitals) are completely out of service, while 17 hospitals are partially operational, failing to meet the increasing health needs.
In the education sector, the damage is estimated at $874 million, with losses reaching $3.2 billion. The report highlights that 88% of schools have been destroyed, with the remainder converted into temporary shelters for families fleeing the war. Additionally, 51 university buildings have been destroyed.
In the trade and industry sector, the damage amounts to $5.9 billion, with losses totaling $2.2 billion. The report also estimates that the damage in the transportation sector is $2.5 billion, with losses of $377 million.
The damage in the water and sewage sector is recorded at $15 billion, with losses reaching $64 million. In the electricity sector, losses are estimated to be $450 million.
Recovery and reconstruction needs
Considering these damages, the plan estimates the total need for Gaza’s reconstruction at $53 billion, with $3 billion allocated for “early recovery” to be used within six months.
The report states that the housing sector accounts for the largest share of recovery needs, with a total value of $15.2 billion. This is followed by the health, trade, and industry sectors, each requiring $6.9 billion for recovery, roads at $2.45 billion, and the electricity sector at $1.5 billion.
The education sector needs $3.8 billion for recovery, while the agriculture and social protection sectors each require $4.2 billion. The transportation sector needs $2.9 billion, and the water and sanitation sector needs $2.7 billion.
The report indicates a need for $1.25 billion for a four-stage process that includes debris removal, unexploded ordnance disposal, recycling, and transformation.
Implementation stages of the plan
The report emphasizes the need to prepare a roadmap and an urgent development plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in three phases over a five-year period until 2030, accommodating approximately 3 million people.
The first phase, termed the “early recovery phase,” with an estimated timeframe of six months and a cost of $3 billion, includes tasks such as removing debris in some areas and repairing them for temporary housing, repairing 60,000 partially damaged houses to accommodate 360,000 people, and constructing 200,000 temporary housing units to accommodate 1.2 million people.
The second phase, with a two-year timeframe and a cost of $20 billion, envisages the construction of 200,000 new housing units, infrastructure development, completion of debris removal and sorting, restoration of 60,000 houses to accommodate 1.6 million people, reclamation of 20,000 acres of land, and the establishment of service facilities.
The third phase, termed the “second phase of reconstruction,” is expected to be completed in 2.5 years at a cost of $30 billion. This phase includes the construction of an additional 200,000 housing units to accommodate 1.2 million people and infrastructure development.
The report states that this phase envisages the establishment of the first stage of an industrial zone on a 600-acre area, as well as the construction of a fishing port, a commercial port, and Gaza Airport. It also indicates the provision of 500,000 jobs for Palestinians in Gaza in various sectors.
Political context of the plan
The plan states that while preserving the internationally accepted two-state solution horizon, reconstruction is based on the rights and dignity of Palestinians.
Emphasizing the rejection of any attempts to displace Palestinians from Gaza, the plan points out that it is illogical to ignore the desire and right of the Palestinian people, who are firmly attached to their land, to remain on this land in the face of this catastrophic crisis that the Gaza Strip and its people are experiencing.
Noting that the Gaza Strip is an integral part of the Palestinian territories, the plan warns that attempts to geographically separate Gaza from the West Bank will lead to further instability.
The plan warns that ignoring the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza could lead to an escalation of conflicts in the region and calls on the international community to support reconstruction efforts primarily for humanitarian reasons.
Transitional governance during Gaza’s reconstruction
Regarding the governance of Gaza during the reconstruction process, the plan indicates that efforts are underway to establish a temporary administrative committee composed of independent technocrats under the umbrella of the Palestinian government in the Gaza Strip for a period of six months, with the aim of paving the way for the full return of the Palestinian National Authority to the Gaza Strip.
The plan emphasizes that what is currently expected from the international community is to support and encourage these efforts to ensure the success of the administrative committee and its ability to manage the subsequent phase.
Regarding the mission to ensure security in Gaza, the plan notes that Egypt and Jordan are working to train Palestinian police to be sent to the Gaza Strip to enable the Palestinian Authority to return to the Gaza Strip and fulfill its administrative duties.
Calling for these efforts to be supported by political and financial support and the efforts of international and regional partners, the plan suggests that the United Nations Security Council consider deploying an international peacekeeping force in the Palestinian territories, including Gaza and the West Bank, within a clear timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The plan indicates that the problem of numerous Palestinian parties carrying weapons in Gaza can be eliminated forever “if the reasons are removed through a credible political process with a clear horizon and ensuring the return of rights to their owners.”
Egypt’s plan emphasizes that all previous efforts should be directed towards implementing the two-state solution and working to achieve a medium-term ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, encompassing the West Bank and Gaza, as well as halting all unilateral initiatives such as settlement construction, house demolitions, military interventions, and protecting the legal and historical status of holy sites.
The plan notes that if there is political will, the reconstruction of Gaza as proposed is possible.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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