Europe
German industrial crisis deepens as Middle East conflict disrupts global energy and helium supplies
The conflict conducted by the US and Israel against Iran is significantly exacerbating the existing structural crisis within German industry. Production disruptions in the Persian Gulf—affecting crude oil, natural gas, and other strategically vital raw materials such as helium—have triggered global price surges and heightened supply-chain risks.
This volatility is hitting German industry with particular severity due to its heavy reliance on the import of these commodities. While business associations warn of an impending industrial stagnation, the number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany has reached its highest level since the 2009 financial crisis.
The federal government recently attempted to diversify Germany’s energy imports and reduce its rapidly growing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US. Those efforts are now being hindered by the consequences of the US-led military campaign.
While energy-intensive industries remain under intense pressure, commodity firms and financial actors are benefiting from the price spikes. Companies profiting from the increased utilization of renewable and nuclear energy also anticipate a rise in sales.
Industry in free fall
According to reports from German Foreign Policy, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) does not expect any growth in industrial production this year as a direct consequence of the war with Iran.
BDI President Peter Leibinger, speaking recently at the opening of the Hannover Messe, stated that stagnation is the best-case scenario. Industrial production remains significantly below previous levels, with capacity utilization currently at just 78%.
Concurrently, procurement prices have risen more sharply than at any time since November 2022, with the increase being even more pronounced in the industrial sector. Companies are passing these elevated costs directly to consumers; service providers and manufacturing firms have raised prices to levels not seen in 35 and 39 months, respectively.
In addition to stagnation and mounting inflationary pressure, corporate insolvencies are on the rise. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) reported a total of 4,573 bankruptcy cases between January and March 2026. This represents the highest figure recorded since the third quarter of 2005. Insolvencies among partnerships and corporations are now exceeding the levels observed during the 2009 financial crisis.
Gulf supply chains critical for Germany
Disruptions in global supply chains are a primary driver of the crisis. In mid-March, a gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar involving Shell and an LNG production facility in which ExxonMobil holds a stake were struck by Iranian drones.
The Ras Laffan terminals account for approximately 20% of global LNG exports and roughly 40% of the world’s exported helium. Following the drone strikes, LNG production and the associated helium extraction were forced to halt.
Qatar’s primary helium markets are the EU (33%), China (29%), and Southeast Asia (31%). The EU relies on Qatar for approximately 40% of its helium requirements. The EU has classified helium as a critical raw material, as it is indispensable for the electronics industry (semiconductor manufacturing), cryogenics, and the aerospace sector.
Beyond Qatar and Iran, production was also affected in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq. In the UAE, the main processing facility at the Habshan gas field suffered severe damage, necessitating a temporary total shutdown. In mid-April, the company announced that damage assessments were still ongoing.
In Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest processing and export facility for LNG components was damaged. Saudi Aramco produces ethane, propane, and butane at this site. These products are currently unavailable on global markets, a development that is negatively impacting German industry, among others.
Structural crisis deepens
As Markus Steilemann, President of the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), recently warned, the looming resource scarcity on global markets will accelerate a trend that has been predictable for decades: the continuous decline of the German chemical industry, which is heavily dependent on fossil raw materials.
Steilemann expects the war in Iran to lead to significant shortages within the sector. According to the VCI president’s assessment, the full impact of the crisis has yet to be felt, even if the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further. This applies to consumer-facing sectors as well, such as the availability of jet fuel.
Furthermore, the war threatens to undermine Germany’s efforts to diversify its energy supply. In January, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicted that the US share of total EU LNG imports could reach 80% by 2030.
A contributing factor was the European Commission’s commitment in late July 2025 to purchase $750 billion worth of energy imports—primarily LNG—from the US by the end of 2028 as part of a trade agreement. While the US currently supplies approximately 55% of the EU’s LNG imports, Qatar remains among the most critical suppliers.
At the beginning of the year, the German government attempted to reduce its dependence on the US. In February, Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to Qatar and the UAE with a business delegation to explore possibilities for new gas supply contracts.
The US, through its strikes against Iran, has—at least for now—ended this diversification attempt. Following the attack, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely closed.
Winners of the war: Commodity companies and banks
While the German economy is clearly among the losers of the conflict, several commodity companies have already recorded high profits.
According to Bloomberg, British oil majors such as Shell and BP are reporting significantly higher earnings. BP, which operates approximately 2,400 Aral gas stations in Germany, announced a record profit of over $3 billion in the first quarter. Since the start of the year, the company’s market value has increased by approximately one-third.
Other entities are also experiencing a boom. The multinational oil trading firm Gunvor Group earned more profit in the first quarter of 2026 than in the entirety of the previous year. Large banks are also among the beneficiaries; Bank of America, for example, reported a 60% increase in revenue in the first quarter.
Calls to move away from fossil fuels intensify
The dramatic rise in oil and gas prices and the approaching raw material shortages have triggered renewed calls to move away from fossil fuels as much as possible in the medium term.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated during a meeting of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group: “We must clearly see that our heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels makes us vulnerable.”
Urging a rapid reduction in dependence through energy produced within the EU, von der Leyen noted, “Every kilowatt-hour of energy produced here contributes to economic stability, affordable energy, and thus European independence.” She called for the expansion of both renewable and nuclear energy.
Robert Zurawski, head of the Swedish energy company Vattenfall in Germany, made similar remarks, noting that gas prices would remain high in the medium term. According to him, the only logical conclusion is to “abandon the use of fossil fuels wherever possible.”
For one German company, this trend already appears to be yielding results: Siemens Energy reported an unexpected surge in orders at the beginning of the year.
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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