Amid concerns that the US may withdraw from the continent, a debate has begun in Europe over France’s nuclear umbrella and the possibility of Germany producing its own nuclear bomb.

French President Emmanuel Macron is pursuing a proposal to bring other European countries, including Germany, under a “nuclear umbrella” based on French nuclear bombs, modeled after the US system.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced today during the signing of a France-Poland cooperation agreement that “serious talks” on this matter are already underway. Macron announced that similar discussions will be held with other countries.

Efforts to find an alternative to US nuclear weapons are also ongoing in Berlin, and these efforts have intensified since Chancellor Friedrich Merz raised the possibility of talks with Paris and London on February 21.

Leading German media outlets have also recently raised the issue of arming Germany with its own “German bomb,” which would violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Two Plus Four Treaty. AfD politicians support this idea.

However, the ruling parties in Berlin are currently pushing for a “European solution.” It remains unclear how Berlin’s participation in decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons would be ensured.

German media calls for ‘breaking old chains’

The debate over maintaining the current US nuclear umbrella over Europe or replacing it with a separate European nuclear umbrella first began last November during the US presidential elections, then reignited on January 20 with the inauguration of President Donald Trump.

From time to time, calls are made for Germany to act alone and acquire nuclear weapons. For example, an influential article published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) argued that there were “good reasons” why the Two Plus Four Treaty is “no longer valid,” given that it did not permit the Federal Republic of Germany to possess nuclear weapons, and that Germany should “break old chains.”

Around the same time, public opinion polls were published showing that while nuclear armament for the Federal Republic had not yet gained majority support, it was backed by a growing segment of the population.

German media, recalling that the production of nuclear bombs is also being discussed in other countries like South Korea and Poland, emphasized that Berlin possesses sufficient uranium enrichment technology to produce nuclear weapons.

AfD support for ‘German bomb’

More influential politicians have not yet joined the call for a German bomb. Karl-Heinz Kamp, former president of the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS) and currently working for the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), recently stated that the Federal Republic of Germany has “bindingly renounced” the option of “developing its own nuclear weapons,” which is being discussed in the media.

Although Kamp argues that there is currently no politically serious voice in Berlin seeking to change this, explicit calls for the German bomb are now coming from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

For example, in March, Rüdiger Lucassen, the AfD’s defense policy spokesperson in the Bundestag, said, “Germany needs its own nuclear weapons.”

The AfD member, who wants Berlin to “acquire its own nuclear deterrence capability,” stated that this should be done “within the framework of Europe’s strategic autonomy.”

This demand was echoed by Sergeant Hannes Gnauck, an AfD Member of Parliament and a member of his party’s defense working group. Gnauck said, “Germany needs its own nuclear protection shield.”

European option in practice, German bomb in emergencies

Some time ago, Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin, proposed a different approach.

Benner advised that “in emergencies, the basic scientific and technological capacities should be maintained to pursue a German nuclear bomb project,” but that in political practice, a “European option” should be sought.

Kamp is also insistent on this point. He notes that the Trinity House Treaty, signed between the UK and Germany in October 2024, provides for bilateral “dialogue on nuclear issues.”

French President Emmanuel Macron had also advocated for dialogue on the use of the Force de Frappe (deterrent force) to create a nuclear umbrella over the EU “at an early stage.”

Kamp now suggests that Germany could contribute to the “significant costs of France’s and Britain’s nuclear capabilities.” This would, of course, require establishing a “direct link between the nuclear weapon capabilities of both countries and the security of Germany and Europe,” and regulating this with “legally binding bilateral treaties.”

According to Kamp, this would also give Berlin direct influence over French and British nuclear weapons.

Joint nuclear war maneuvers

In recent days, Macron has given new impetus to the plan to bring EU countries under the protection of French or Franco-British nuclear weapons.

Macron has long supported this plan, arguing that French national interests, protected by French nuclear weapons, have now acquired a “European dimension.”

Paris noted with interest Merz’s statement on February 21 that “Europe may need to become more independent from the US in nuclear terms.” Merz had said he wanted to negotiate this issue with Paris and London.

Visiting Portugal at the end of February, Macron reaffirmed the “European dimension” of France’s core interests, which are central to the expansion of the nuclear umbrella.

Experts quickly advanced the public debate. For example, in early March, it was said that it would take years to produce enough new nuclear warheads to deploy nuclear weapons in other European countries according to the US nuclear sharing model.

However, it is pointed out that joint nuclear war maneuvers, for example, could be carried out in the short term.

French nuclear deterrence could be extended to Poland

The plan already appears to be gaining traction. France and Poland have signed a friendship and cooperation agreement (Traité de Nancy) that provides for closer arms and military cooperation and includes a mutual assistance clause.

This agreement is considered the counterpart to the Traités de Londres signed with the United Kingdom in 2010, the Traité d’Aix-la-Chapelle signed with Germany in 2019, the Traité du Quirinal signed with Italy in 2021, and the Traité de Barcelone signed with Spain in 2023.

The mutual assistance clause allows for discussion of extending France’s nuclear deterrence to Poland. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed on Friday, his government is currently conducting “serious talks” with Paris on this matter.

In an interview on Tuesday, Macron reiterated that he wants to discuss participation in France’s nuclear deterrence with “all partners who wish to do so,” and said he would intensify talks in the coming weeks and months.

Macron added that there are three conditions for his country: France will not pay for the security of others; it will not deploy nuclear weapons it needs for itself; and the decision to use the French nuclear bomb will belong solely to the President of France.

Currently, it seems unlikely that Berlin would agree to extend France’s nuclear umbrella to Germany under the condition that it has no say in any decision regarding its use.

On the other hand, the joint financing voiced by Kamp could provide a certain degree of joint decision-making.

Germany’s new Chancellor from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, in an interview published in the newspaper Die Zeit on May 15, 2025, evaluated his first week in office and delivered important messages on domestic and foreign policy.

Merz stated that his election as chancellor in the second round did not pose a problem for his actions, saying, “The coalition has a stable parliamentary majority.”

Making a swift start to his chancellorship, Merz first visited Paris and Warsaw.

The new Chancellor announced that he had a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump.

Merz reported that Trump congratulated him and invited him to the White House. When Trump mentioned that his family came from Kallstadt, near Bad Dürkheim, Merz said he responded, “I also served in an artillery unit near there. I invite you,” and noted that Trump found this idea wonderful.

Stating that the Ukraine issue was also discussed, Merz conveyed that he told Trump he would be going to Kyiv the next day with French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and that they should try to remain together within the transatlantic alliance and do everything jointly.

Merz indicated that Trump gave him assurances on this matter. To a question about Trump’s call for the Ukrainian President to negotiate and the short half-life of his words, Merz replied, “There are different negotiating styles in international politics, and I can handle them well.”

Merz added, “We are currently experiencing an awakening of Europe. We are doing this for ourselves, not against a third party.”

Recalling Angela Merkel’s 2017 statement in Munich, “We must take our destiny into our own hands,” Merz noted that there had been no significant developments following those words for a long time.

‘We don’t need a lesson on democracy’

Addressing US President Trump’s aide J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, Merz commented, “Of course, we are not heading towards a ‘tyranny’ as we hear from the US. We really need to reject such statements. Germany was liberated from tyranny by the US; Germany today is stable, liberal, and democratic. We don’t need a lesson on democracy. Therefore, Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference was perceived by many, including myself, as overstepping.”

Merz stated he believes President Trump, like everyone else, wants an end to the deaths in Ukraine and senses that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of this.

Merz also expressed that Trump would consider the China/Taiwan conflict in this dispute and would ask himself what it would mean if Putin were to succeed in Europe.

Regarding sanctions that would come into play if Russia rejects a ceasefire demand, Merz said, “We agree among heads of state and government that we must use all possibilities to the fullest. We are talking about further sanctions in the energy sector, in banking, as well as sanctions on assets and individuals. We are currently working on this with our European partners.”

Concerning the possibility of confiscating Russia’s frozen assets, he stated, “We are currently examining this. If there is a possibility to mobilize the money on a clean legal basis, we will do it. However, we must also be aware of the risks such a step entails for the European financial market.”

Merz also emphasized that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline currently has no operating permit and this will not change.

Regarding a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Merz said, “I am in close contact with Zelensky and European and American partners. We are also talking with the Turkish side. I am not certain whether Putin will demonstrate the courage to come to Istanbul and endorse the ceasefire. But from this weekend onwards, no one can accuse us of not making enough diplomatic efforts to end this war.”

‘We no longer want to conduct arms debates in public’

Merz, who as opposition leader threatened to supply Taurus missiles if the bombardment of civilian facilities did not stop and criticized former Chancellor Olaf Scholz for not doing so, explained why he no longer wants to speak publicly about individual weapon systems:

“I agree with the Defense Minister and Deputy Chancellor that we no longer want to conduct arms debates in public. This is not about not wanting to inform the German public. On the contrary, with these discussions, we are only playing into Putin’s hands and giving him valuable information. We will keep our promises and provide the necessary military support.”

Merz added that the previous government forced them into this debate by discussing the matter publicly.

To a question about Berlin’s role in providing peace guarantees to Ukraine, Merz responded, “I want us to contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine together with European partners and for Europe not to assume a special role. The long-term strengthening of the Ukrainian armed forces will play a key role here.”

Stating that he will visit the German brigade in Lithuania next week, Merz said, “We are part of European and NATO efforts, we are strengthening NATO’s eastern flank and thus also protecting Ukraine.”

Touching on domestic policy, Chancellor Merz pointed to the importance of migration policy. Regarding possible disputes with neighboring countries like Poland, he said, “Many countries, such as Austria or France, have long been taking similar measures. The government in Warsaw recently suspended European asylum law for Poland. The situation for Poland is particularly critical because the country is also a victim of hybrid warfare through migration flows from Belarus and Russia. I have explicitly offered to help protect Poland’s borders, which are also our external borders.”

Emphasizing that the individuals to be deported are not those who have been in Germany for years, but those who should have applied for asylum in another EU country, Merz stated, “We need to regain control over who comes to Europe; I agree with my European colleagues on this.”

To a question about many ministers in the government, including himself, being inexperienced, Merz replied, “We are making new policy. That’s right. We all have sufficient experience—political, entrepreneurial, and life experience. We also have a well-functioning government apparatus and working structures. What could be risky about that?”

‘If Europe does well, Germany does well’

Addressing economic policies, Merz stated that the defense industry and the health sector should be seen not as a burden, but as an opportunity.

“If we want to strengthen our defense capability, for example, we must gradually and rapidly reduce our dependence on the US. It is unacceptable that two-thirds of our money constantly flows to American defense companies. This added value needs to return to us more strongly; not just to Germany, but to Europe,” he said.

Stating that the health sector is the fastest-growing sector, Merz said it was a big mistake for firms like BioNTech and CureVac to go to the New York Stock Exchange.

The Chancellor added, “The state should have been active. I will ensure that such companies can stay and grow in Germany.”

To the question of whether he would say “Germany first” in the event of a conflict of interest at the European level, Merz replied, “No, my decision criterion will be efficiency and the necessary added value. Who is better? We are also in competition within Europe. The French can probably build better aircraft than us. But we can definitely build better tanks than the French. I am primarily committed to German interests, but German interests largely overlap with European interests. If Europe does well, Germany does well.”

‘We must reach pragmatic solutions in parliament’

Stating that they will govern strongly and successfully to strengthen democracy, Merz described the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party as “anti-system.”

Acknowledging that the AfD could not be diminished in the last eight years, Merz said, “Let’s stop constantly looking at the AfD. Let’s focus on doing our own job properly.”

Regarding the support he received from the Greens and the Left Party in the second round, he stated, “First of all, we must respect that the voters elected this parliament on February 23, 2025. These are all democratically legitimized members of parliament. And we must reach pragmatic solutions in parliament.”

Emphasizing that the CDU’s party decision rejecting cooperation with both the Left Party and the AfD remains valid, Merz said he was unhappy with the process of classifying the AfD as extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution and would await the assessment of the Interior Ministry. He also added that he has always been skeptical about banning political parties.

To the question of whether he sees himself as “Landesvater” (father of the nation) as Chancellor, Merz replied, “Landesvater; it sounds reassuring, but it also contains a bit of clumsiness. This is not my vision. This federal government works for all 84 million people in the Federal Republic of Germany, that is my message. I will not leave my political views in the Chancellery cloakroom. But I am primarily not the CDU Chairman who occasionally stops by the Chancellery, but rather the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany who also occasionally stops by party headquarters.”

In his first parliamentary address after taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to “provide all necessary financial resources” to make the German army the most powerful in Europe.

“Strength deters aggression; weakness invites it,” Merz stated during his speech in the Federal Parliament (Bundestag).

The Chancellor added that Germany must assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, citing “increasing threats from Russia.”

“The federal government will provide all necessary financial resources for the German Armed Forces to become the strongest conventional army in Europe,” Merz declared.

Merz’s black-red (CDU-SPD) coalition government had previously agreed to reform the country’s strict debt rules before taking office, aiming to bolster the military after years of underinvestment.

This measure exempts defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from Germany’s long-standing constitutional budget deficit limit, known as the debt brake.

The debt brake had repeatedly hampered the previous German government’s efforts to strengthen national security and meet NATO’s target of allocating 2% of GDP to defense.

However, money alone will not suffice. Speaking in the Bundestag a few hours after Merz, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Germany “still does not have enough personnel for what its armed forces need to do.”

The number of German soldiers is planned to increase to 203,000 by 2031. Yet, according to the annual report of the German armed forces ombudsman, the number stagnated at around 181,000 at the end of last year.

Pistorius indicated that the new government aims to enhance the attractiveness of military service and expand reserve forces through a new voluntary military service model.

Nevertheless, Pistorius mentioned that if necessary, Germany could reinstate compulsory military service if they fail to find enough volunteers.

Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011, but the legal provisions related to conscription remain in effect.

Pistorius expressed cautious optimism about young people’s willingness to enlist. He noted a significant increase in applications to the army last year and a more than 20% rise in recruitment in the first quarter compared to the same period the previous year.

Germany’s new military service system is modeled on the Swedish system. Young Germans will be asked to complete a questionnaire about their willingness and ability to perform military service, and potential candidates will be assessed based on their responses.