Europe
Germany’s business model has disappeared, Merz says
On February 23, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to become the new chancellor of Germany after the early federal elections, spoke to The Economist.
Merz, who argued that Germany’s “business model” that marked the 2000s no longer exists, said that Europe must change in order not to fall behind the US and China in innovative sectors such as artificial intelligence.
“We have to do serious work on this bureaucratic burden,” said the CDU leader, signaling that he would wage war on the bureaucracy in Berlin and Brussels, and listed a series of directives and regulations, including detailed due diligence reporting standards that German business leaders hate.
“We should concentrate our public spending on, for example, the labor market,” Merz said, adding that he would then take the axe to the “social welfare system” so that “people who don’t want to work don’t have to pay for it.”
He remains convinced of the export-oriented model
Merz, who said that “at least 50 natural gas power plants should be built” on energy, which is one of the important problem items of German industry, said that there would be no return to Russian gas “for now” and that he was “absolutely” willing to enter into long-term contracts for relatively more expensive American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Merz also stated that a return to nuclear energy is also possible in Germany, pointing out that he is considering new nuclear reactors.
Asserting that the €460bn ($474bn) federal budget “has a lot of room for change,” Merz said he was open to discussing the loosening of the constitutional debt brake, which limits the federal government’s structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, but emphasized that this was “not their first approach.”
Insisting that German industry was still strong, Merz insisted that his country’s export-oriented model could “absolutely” survive, despite the world’s turn towards protectionism and the imminent imposition of tariffs by the US on the EU.
Proposal for unequal sharing of sovereignty and the single market
When it comes to European politics, Merz promised to revive the “Weimar Triangle” with France and Poland, said he would like to work on joint projects in the fields of artificial intelligence and quantum computing as well as military co-operation, and hoped to work “very closely” with Italy’s right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
More fundamentally, Merz supports the idea of a European organization of “concentric circles,” first proposed in the 1990s by Wolfgang Schäuble, a leading CDU figure and Merz’s political mentor, in which some countries are at the center of integration while others share less sovereignty and benefit less from the common market.
“Being completely in or completely out should not be the right answer,” he said, referring to the UK’s relationship with the EU.
The CDU leader said he believes that in order to avoid Brexit, greater concessions on the free movement of people should be made in good time.
‘My task is not to make Trump happy’
As for Donald Trump, Merz claimed that the American president’s transparent, transactional approach meant that negotiating with him would be “very easy.”
Brussels should respond to Washington’s threat of tariffs on EU exports, as it did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, with a targeted response that would “inflict enough pain to concentrate minds,” he said.
On defense spending, he was reluctant to commit to higher figures, recognizing that it would be hard enough to meet NATO’s base of 2% of GDP when a special fund expires in 2028, but conceded that in the long run “it has to be more.”
Asked what he would do if the US insisted that Germany move faster, the CDU leader replied: “It is not my job to make President Trump happy.”
Meanwhile, Merz also downplayed calls from EU partners for changes to fiscal rules to allow for more defense spending or even joint borrowing, saying: “Let’s be very skeptical and critical about this. I don’t see it in the foreseeable future,” he said.
Merz is cautious on the Ukraine issue
The deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine “could be an option,” but “only after a credible ceasefire,” Merz argued, stressing that “a country at war is not a potential NATO member” in relation to the security guarantees demanded by Kiev.
He admitted that, if asked, he “would like to see Ukraine as a peaceful country in NATO,” but added that it was “too early” to consider accepting a country that did not have full control over its territory, at least until the United States clarified its policy.
Nevertheless, Merz emphasized that he was in favor of the US proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.
Single market, but only for Germany?
Despite his fervent support for EU proposals to facilitate capital flows in the single market, Merz rejected as “extremely unfriendly” the proposed takeover of Commerzbank, one of Germany’s largest lenders, by Italy’s UniCredit.
Far from defending Germany’s national champions, Merz’s eagerness to inject a bit of American-style crony capitalism into Germany’s dazed model is genuine, according to The Economist.
During his decade in the private sector, he remains particularly comfortable in boardrooms, where he was chairman of the German arm of asset manager BlackRock, during which time he became a multimillionaire.
Merz left politics in the 2000s after Angela Merkel’s CDU defeated him in the struggle for power, but when Merkel resigned as party leader in 2018, Merz shocked the political world and ran for office.
When it comes to relations with the AfD, Merz seems relaxed. According to him, if the economy and irregular migration improve, the AfD will shrink and reach a point where it will no longer be in parliament (less than 5% of the vote).
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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