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Germany’s economy stumbles into 2026 as weak trade and factory data cloud recovery hopes

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Weak export and industrial data — recorded before the latest energy price shock triggered by the Iran conflict — are casting fresh doubt on whether the German economy can break free from years of stagnation.

“The German economy as a whole got off to a very weak start to the new year,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told the Financial Times after January trade figures revealed a 2.3% month-on-month drop in exports and a 5.9% decline in imports.

The steeper-than-expected falls came a day after Germany’s federal statistics office reported that output in manufacturing — one of the country’s most critical sectors — contracted for the second consecutive month in January.

The figures predate the latest surge in oil and gas prices ignited by the Iran war, raising urgent questions about whether Europe’s largest economy can mount a meaningful recovery in 2026.

In a note to clients, Brzeski wrote that his optimism regarding Germany’s growth prospects had “taken a hit,” adding that domestic manufacturers were being squeezed by US tariffs and fierce competition from Chinese rivals.

New orders fell 11% in January, dragged down by a drop in high-value orders that have historically been volatile. Goldman Sachs economists observed that the sectoral decline was “very broad-based.”

The sharp contraction in imports in January — despite Germany’s trade surplus widening by 21% to €21 billion — may signal deeper structural weaknesses in the domestic economy.

“The fall in imports represents an upside risk to GDP growth this year,” wrote Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Economists had placed considerable hope in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s multi-billion-euro investment package to finally lift Germany toward stronger growth after years of recession. In 2025, the country’s GDP expanded for the first time since 2022, posting modest growth of 0.2%.

A better-than-expected 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the final three months of 2025 had bolstered optimism that growth could accelerate to 1% this year.

Germany’s closely watched Ifo business climate index rose slightly more than forecast in February, though investor sentiment as measured by the ZEW indicator fell unexpectedly, offering a mixed signal on the durability of any rebound.

The prospect of rising interest rates in the wake of the latest energy price shock presents an additional headwind. Madis Müller, governor of Estonia’s central bank, said on Tuesday that the next move in European Central Bank policy rates was more likely to be an increase than a cut — while cautioning at an event in Vilnius, Lithuania, that policymakers should not act hastily. The ECB is set to determine borrowing costs on March 19.

Economists at BNP Paribas, however, maintain that Germany’s ramping-up of public expenditure will be sufficient to pull the economy out of its prolonged slump. “While we remain optimistic on the overall growth outlook for the year, the recent data are a reminder that the recovery path may not be linear,” BNP economist Paul Hollingsworth told the FT on Tuesday. “Fresh increases in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict represent another source of downside risk.”

Europe

EIB to unveil 15 billion euro tech initiative to scale European startups

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The European Investment Bank (EIB) will announce a €15 billion initiative today, in collaboration with EU capitals and private investors, aimed at supporting the growth of European technology companies.

For decades, startups on the continent have struggled to raise the large-scale funding rounds necessary to scale on this side of the Atlantic, frequently turning to US investors or relocating abroad as they expand.

“We are catching up. Now we need to accelerate,” EIB President Nadia Calviño said.

Under the existing European Tech Champions Initiative, the EIB had already pooled resources with six EU governments to establish funds that invest in high-growth companies across the EU.

Calviño described the initiative as “very successful,” noting that it has supported 12 European “unicorn” companies valued at over $1 billion, including the German artificial intelligence translation firm DeepL.

The bank is now expanding the program with a new phase nearly four times the size of the original.

Twenty-five EU governments, alongside private investors such as Santander and Danske Bank, are expected to participate in the program.

This initial €15 billion aims to mobilize up to €80 billion in total investment. Calviño stated that this estimate is based on the multiplier effects achieved under previous programs.

As part of these efforts, the EIB also aims to attract European pension funds, which manage immense pools of capital but have historically allocated fewer resources to technology investments compared to their US counterparts.

In addition to the new funding, Calviño noted that the EIB will create a platform providing a single point of access for existing European scale-up initiatives, including the European Commission’s Scaleup Europe Fund, France’s Tibi initiative, and Germany’s Win initiative.

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Germany to purchase US Tomahawk missiles to build own long-range strike capability

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Germany will purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States and deploy them on German territory, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Thursday.

The move marks a shift away from planned US deployments and toward Germany establishing its own long-range strike capability.

Merz told lawmakers that he finalized the agreement with the US government during the NATO summit in Ankara, adding that the talks held on Tuesday and Wednesday had exceeded his expectations.

“While we close a critical strategic gap in our defense, we are also working to develop our own European systems and deploy them in Europe,” the Chancellor said.

According to German government sources, Washington committed in a letter of intent signed on Tuesday to approve Germany’s acquisition of Tomahawk missiles and their land-based Typhon launchers in August.

The number of missiles and launchers Germany plans to purchase was not disclosed because the information is classified.

The planned acquisition appears aligned with US President Donald Trump’s pressure on European allies to cover their own security costs, such as by purchasing US weapons.

The fate of the Tomahawk procurement had become uncertain after Trump announced in May that he would reduce the US military presence in Germany.

That development was seen as a cancellation of a plan made under the previous administration to deploy a US battalion equipped with long-range Tomahawk missiles to Germany.

That original plan was designed as a temporary solution to serve as a strong deterrent against Russia while Europeans developed their own versions of such weapons.

Germany produces its own cruise missile, the Taurus, but its range of approximately 311 miles is three to five times shorter than that of the Tomahawk missiles.

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Apple loses EU court appeal over Digital Markets Act gatekeeper designation

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The General Court of the European Union has rejected Apple’s challenges against its “gatekeeper” status designated under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

With this ruling, the company’s designated status for the App Store and iOS remains valid, while its applications regarding iMessage were also rejected.

Apple had argued that the five separate App Stores it operates for the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Apple TV should be evaluated as distinct, individual services.

The court rejected this argument, ruling that these stores serve a common purpose of connecting developers and users, regardless of the specific device.

The court also dismissed Apple’s defense that the DMA’s interoperability obligations violate its fundamental rights.

However, it did not conduct a substantive assessment on the legality of this obligation, stating that a direct legal link could not be established between the regulation in question and the determination of “gatekeeper” status.

Following the ruling, Apple argued that the obligations under the DMA “exceed the boundaries of legality and proportionality.” The company asserted that the new rules jeopardize the work it has carried out for years to ensure user privacy and security.

Apple retains the right to appeal the decision, though a company spokesperson did not comment on whether there are plans to do so.

Apple previously declared that DMA rules prevented the launch of the updated version of Siri in Europe, resulting in European users being unable to benefit from the service.

In force in the European Union since 2024, the DMA covers a total of 22 services and products belonging to Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

The regulation obliges these companies to share certain data with competitors, provide access to user-generated data, and offer verification tools to advertising partners.

Additionally, it prohibits platforms from engaging in anti-competitive practices that favor their own products. Companies failing to comply with the rules face fines of up to 10% of their global turnover, which can rise to 20% in cases of repeated violations.

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