Europe
Germany’s partial arms embargo unlikely to impact long-term defense ties with Israel
The deep and long-standing ties between German arms manufacturers and the Israeli military will continue despite Berlin’s decision to partially block arms sales to Tel Aviv.
Several high-value exports, including submarines and naval corvettes, are reportedly exempt from the ban, which only covers weapons likely to be used in Gaza.
Germany’s imports from Israel, including a major deal for the purchase of Arrow-3 missile defense systems, will also be unaffected.
“This is unlikely to affect the defense industry relations between Israel and Germany in the long term,” said Zain Hussain, an arms export expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which monitors the global arms trade.
Germany is Israel’s second-largest supplier of “major weapons” after the US, and Hussain said, “Israel will continue to rely on these countries for most of its significant weapons capabilities.”
Merz’s restrictions ‘deliberately limited’
An unanswered question is whether shipments of German-made engines, transmissions, and spare parts for Israeli armored vehicles, which are widely used in Gaza and the West Bank, will continue.
A German government spokesperson declined to answer questions about tank parts on Monday, stating that each case would be evaluated individually.
Engine manufacturer MTU, reportedly among the suppliers, announced that it would comply with export control rules in the countries where it operates but would not comment on possible exports to Israel.
Muriel Asseburg, an Israel expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said that Merz’s restrictions were deliberately limited in scope and duration and therefore unlikely to have a long-term impact on defense relations, but added, “A partial embargo by Israel’s second-largest arms supplier still sends a message.”
German arms companies say they have not yet received information from the government
German defense industry players also remain in the dark on the matter. Hans Christoph Atzpodien, head of the German defense industry lobby group BDSV, told Euractiv on Monday that they “have no information beyond what is publicly available.”
Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, which produces naval vessels for Israel, also said they “have not received any official information from the federal government.”
According to SIPRI, Israel’s Sa’ar 6 naval corvettes, built in part by Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, are being used to strike targets in Gaza.
In an internal document addressing criticism from within his own CDU party, Merz said the ban would not apply to “air and sea defense equipment vital for Israel’s self-defense.”
Approval for 251 million euros in arms exports to Israel since the beginning of 2024
Details about Germany’s arms exports are largely confidential, and export licenses are secretly approved by Germany’s cabinet-level national security council. Apart from semi-annual figures on the total export value of defense products, very little information is officially disclosed.
Following the October 7 Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Germany granted arms export licenses to Israel worth approximately 326 million euros in 2023 after an expedited approval process. This figure is nearly ten times that of the previous year. In 2024, another 161 million euros were approved.
According to Ministry of Economy data, Germany exported approximately 90 million euros worth of weapons to Israel in the first half of 2025.
According to information obtained by Die Linke (The Left Party) through a parliamentary inquiry, the shipments included firearms, ammunition, weapon parts, special army and navy equipment, electronic devices, and special armored vehicles.
Asseburg said that it is not entirely clear from publicly available information which German-made weapons are being used directly in Gaza, but that even equipment used elsewhere enables Israel to use other weapons in its military operations.
She said that Germany’s deliveries of “corvettes, anti-tank weapons, mechanical parts for armored vehicles, armored vehicle ammunition, small arms, and small arms ammunition” are “important for Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip.”
Asseburg also added that Israel’s “extreme dependence on US arms deliveries and financing” means that the decisions of US President Donald Trump are “decisive” in influencing Israel’s behavior.
Renk threatens to move production out of Germany
German defense industry company Renk has threatened to move part of its production abroad to continue selling parts for Israeli tanks following Berlin’s announcement of an export embargo.
The head of the Bavaria-based group, which produces transmissions for Israeli tanks and armored vehicles, said it is their “responsibility” to ensure the country “maintains its deterrence capability.”
CEO Alexander Sagel told the Financial Times (FT) that Renk is still trying to understand the consequences of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s announcement last week that he would suspend the sale of military products that could be used in Gaza.
Sagel stated that as a German company, Renk will comply with the country’s laws and regulations.
However, he added that the company, which has a market value of 6.3 billion euros, is considering other ways to fulfill its contracts if the ban is approved by Germany’s security council.
Sagel had previously told analysts that 2% to 3% of Renk’s sales are to Israel. “It is also clear that we are discussing a Plan B. Plan B is to move the production of these specific transmissions to the US,” Sagel said.
CEO Sagel: It is our responsibility to maintain Israel’s deterrence
When asked about the moral aspect of supplying tank parts to Israel, which is accused of widespread human rights violations, Sagel claimed it is a “difficult discussion.”
Sagel added, “Of course, we are following all the discussions regarding the Gaza Strip. But from Germany’s perspective, it is our responsibility to ensure that Israel maintains its deterrent power. This power is necessary not only in Gaza but also on other borders.”
Sagel declined to disclose the number of transmissions Renk is supposed to deliver to Israel but told analysts that the company is contracted to supply “hundreds” of products.
On Wednesday, Renk reported that its revenues for the first half of 2025 rose by 22% to 620 million euros compared to the same period last year, benefiting from an increase in defense spending in Europe. Adjusted profit before interest and taxes rose by 29% to 89 million euros.
Sagel said that if the embargo continues, it will affect Renk’s operating profit in the second half of the year by several million euros.
Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, one of the continent’s largest defense companies, told the FT that his company, which produces a variety of products including tank ammunition, does not export any weapons to Israel.
Europe
Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.
Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.
The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.
“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.
Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.
“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.
Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:
“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”
The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.
Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.
The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.
Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.
The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.
Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.
The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.
Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.
Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”
He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.
A German government official said:
“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”
Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.
The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.
The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.
Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.
A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.
Europe
EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture
The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.
Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.
Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.
“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.
The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.
Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.
The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.
“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.
Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.
However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.
A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:
“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”
The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.
“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.
On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.
“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.
The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.
“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.
The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:
“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”
Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.
With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.
“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.
While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.
The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.
There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.
“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.
In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.
“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.
Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.
However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:
“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”
Europe
Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid
Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.
In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”
The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.
Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.
Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.
In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.
Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.
Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”
The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.
Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.
Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.
According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.
A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:
“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”
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