Middle East
Gulf states signal investment review as Iran conflict strains budgets
The economic fallout from the US-Israeli campaign against Iran is placing severe strain on the budgets of Gulf nations.
The region’s leading economies have initiated a review of their overseas investment commitments and contractual obligations to mitigate the escalating financial burden.
As stated to the Financial Times, a Gulf official indicated that the scope of this review is broad, encompassing everything from capital commitments to foreign states and corporations to sports sponsorships, service contracts, and asset divestitures.
The official noted that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar are collectively assessing the pressure on their national budgets and economies, though they declined to name specific participants in the talks.
“A number of Gulf nations have launched internal assessments to determine whether force majeure clauses can be invoked in existing contracts. Simultaneously, both current and future investment commitments are under review. The objective is to alleviate some of the economic pressures anticipated from the ongoing war,” the official said, adding that these measures will gain further significance if the war—and its associated expenditures—continues at the current intensity.
Energy revenues slump as defense spending surges
According to the official, these preemptive measures are a direct response to mounting budgetary strain.
Fiscal balances in the Gulf are being tested by a combination of declining energy revenues—driven by slowing production and logistical disruptions—as well as downturns in the tourism and aviation sectors, compounded by a sharp rise in defense spending.
A separate official, serving as an advisor to a Gulf government, indicated that the prospect of these wealthy nations reviewing their investments has drawn the attention of the White House.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar manage among the largest and most active sovereign wealth funds globally. Following a visit to the region by US President Donald Trump last year, these nations had pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in investment into the US.
Gulf states are also major financiers of global sporting events. Domestically, these nations have been executing large-scale investments to diversify their economies and accelerate development.
Investment shifts may increase pressure on Washington
Moves that could impact investments in the US or other Western nations are viewed as a potential lever to increase pressure on President Trump to seek a diplomatic resolution to end the war.
The oil-rich Gulf nations are indirectly involved in the war initiated by the US and Israel against Iran. In response, the Tehran administration has struck back hard against Washington’s regional allies.
Following the outbreak of hostilities, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the conduit for approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments—has largely ceased. At least 10 oil tankers have been reported attacked in the Gulf.
Qatar, the world’s second-largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), was forced to declare force majeure this week after suspending production following a drone strike on its primary LNG facility. One of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refineries was also targeted.
Infrastructure and diplomatic sites struck in the Gulf
Iran has also targeted US military bases and embassies in the region, in addition to airports, hotels, and residential buildings, causing significant disruption to air traffic and tourism.
Before the war began, Gulf nations had urged the Trump administration to avoid striking Iran and to seek a diplomatic solution. However, these nations have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation.
Khalaf Al Habtoor, a prominent business leader in the United Arab Emirates, expressed the growing frustration in the region via social media in a direct address to President Trump:
“A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? On what basis did you make this dangerous decision? Before pulling the trigger, did you calculate the consequences?”
Al Habtoor recalled that Gulf nations have been cited as primary financiers for President Trump’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza and were expected to support broader initiatives dubbed the “Peace Committee.”
Noting that Gulf nations have contributed billions of dollars to support stability and development, Al Habtoor added, “Today, these nations have the right to ask: Where did this money go? Are we financing peace initiatives, or a war that puts us in danger?”
These developments may have significant consequences not only for the economy but also for the regional security architecture. Reports are mounting that the bond of trust between Washington and the Gulf states has been weakened by the war.
An analysis published in Foreign Policy suggests that Iran’s attacks could fundamentally fracture the security relationship between the US and the Gulf.
FP: “The US could lose the Gulf”
In an analysis titled “The US Could Lose the Gulf,” authored by George Washington University professor Marc Lynch, it is argued that Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations could radically alter regional security dynamics.
According to the analysis, Iran’s targeting of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other Gulf states has effectively ended the diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran established in recent years.
The analysis states that Iran’s strategy is not limited to military retaliation; it is also designed to create regional and global economic pressure by exposing the vulnerability of Gulf states.
According to Lynch, Tehran aims to exhaust Gulf and US air defense systems with low-cost drones and missiles, while simultaneously seeking to create severe volatility in global energy markets by exerting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.
Another point highlighted in the analysis is the erosion of Gulf confidence in the US. While the regional security architecture has long relied on security guarantees provided by Washington against Iran, the recent attacks have severely shaken this premise.
According to Lynch, Gulf administrations hold the view that the war initiated by the US and Israel against Iran was launched without adequate consultation, despite the fact that it directly impacts their national interests.
The failure of the US to provide effective protection against Iran’s attacks on oil facilities, ports, and energy infrastructure has deepened the loss of trust in the region. The analysis also draws attention to concerns that Gulf nations are rapidly depleting their stocks of interceptor missiles, with the US unable to replenish this capacity in the short term.
This situation has led to the US military presence—long viewed as a security guarantee—being regarded in some Gulf capitals as a source of potential risk rather than a security asset.
According to the analysis, Iran’s attacks have severely eroded the belief among Gulf states that Washington will protect them during regional crises.
Middle East
Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.
Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.
Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.
According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.
The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”
Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.
Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.
The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.
The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.
However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.
Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.
The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:
“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”
Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.
The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.
Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.
Middle East
Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes
Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.
According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.
The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.
Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.
A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.
The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:
“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”
Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.
The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:
“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”
Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.
Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.
In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”
This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.
The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.
During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.
The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.
Middle East
Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.
Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.
To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.
In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.
The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.
“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.
Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.
Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.
Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.
Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.
In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.
The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.
Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.
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