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Herat Security Dialogue discusses ways to overcome political uncertainty in Afghanistan

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The 11th Herat Security Dialogue (HSD-XI) unfolded in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on 27-28 of November with the participation of over 120 people from 20 countries, including international organizations and representatives of various political groups and former republic government officials.

The HSD-XI held under the theme “Reimagining Afghanistan, Ways Forward”, concluded with the participants deliberating on various aspects, including the future of Afghanistan and the world’s community engagement with Afghanistan in their two-day session and several panel discussions.

The panelist discussed key issues related to Afghanistan, including gender apartheid, the rise of extremism and fundamentalism, and pushed for the support for political forces opposing the Taliban aimed at establishing an inclusive government acceptable for all.

The conference also shed light on various other important issues such as opening the way for a dialogue between politicians in exile and the Taliban, fight against terrorism, practical efforts to stop drug trafficking, good ties with the neighboring countries as well as having a society to honor the fundamental rights of girls and women.

The organizer of the conference, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) had said that representatives from the United Nations, the European Union, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization had also participated in the conference and merely played a role of observers.

Key officials from past government and foreign representatives participated in the HSD, discussing ways for a peaceful Afghanistan

During the first day of the conference, officials from the past government, opposition political figures, analysts and experts had discussed in detail the situation in Afghanistan and the focus was on the nature of interactions with the Taliban, who according to them, yet to agree for an intra-Afghan dialogue.

Head of AISS, Davood Moradian, said that this year’s discussions were solely focused on the future of Afghanistan with the Taliban as part of a solution or not. He said that what will happen if the Taliban doesn’t agree for a dialogue in order to form an inclusive government and if not, what steps should be taken in this regard.

Former Afghan Minister, Ismail Khan and a number of officials, including Afghan ambassador to Tajikistan

In his opening speech, Dr. Rangin Dadfar Spanta, former Afghan foreign minister, said that Taliban took power in August 2021 due to the inefficiency of the republic government.

Spanta expressed his dissent on the report prepared by the UN Special Coordinator Feridun Sinirlioglu, saying that Feridun has tried to present a favorable image of the Taliban in the report.

Afghan leader, Ismail Khan called on international community to pressurize the Taliban in a bid to agree on intra-Afghan talks  

“There was no need to whitewash the Taliban in the report,” Spanta added. Meanwhile, Shukria Barakzai, Afghanistan’s former envoy in Norway had questioned the UN’s dual stance, asking UN how it’s good for this organization to ask for a type of engagement or recognition of the Taliban when the Taliban doesn’t observe human rights, especially the rights of women and girls.

Chief guest, Ismail Khan, former Jihadi leader, had called on the international community to put pressure on the Taliban in order to make them agree on an opportunity for an intra-Afghan talk.

Expressing concern over world’s growing weary of the Taliban, Khan said that the current policy of Taliban will further strengthen the strongholds of resistance.

In August 2021, Khan announced war against the Taliban, but he was captured by the Taliban fighters and later on he was released and sought refuge in Iran. Now after two years, he appeared in the media once again and spoke against the Taliban. During his speech, he said that not only Iran, but the entire world has become fed up with the policy of the Taliban.

However, Karim Amin, a member of the leadership of the Hezb-e-Islami party led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, had somehow supported the report made by the Sinirlioglu. He said that Mr. Feridon Sinirlioglu has travelled to 15 provinces during his three months stay in Afghanistan and also met with the representatives of 17 provinces and also carried out talks with the three hundred people inside and outside of Afghanistan.

UK to envoy called on the world to reengage in Afghanistan

However, the former UK ambassador to Afghanistan, Nicholas Kay has put weight behind Sinirlioglu’s report and emphasized the need for the international community to support his’s UN-mandated assessment.

Afrasiab Khattak, a former Pakistani senator spoke about the mass deportation of Afghan migrants from Pakistan and said that this is the “policy of Pakistani generals” aimed at putting pressure on the people of Afghanistan. He said that these mass expulsions will end in instability in the region because when these people go to Afghanistan they won’t find any job and possibly be recruited by the Daes and TTP and other terrorist groups.

Panelist discussing Afghanistan issues.

Another participant, Abdullah Rahnama, A Tajik writer, has welcomed all the participants, especially the Afghans, labeling Tajikistan as their second home. Rahnama also expressed his grief over the recent earthquake in Herat province in which hundreds of people died, many more wounded and thousands of families became displaced.

Emphasized made upon a balanced international engagement for a peaceful a secure Afghanistan

In another discussion, Said Tayeb Jawad, former Afghan ambassador to Russia, has called for a pragmatic approach to Afghanistan’s issues, and called for a balanced international engagement and regional cooperation for a peaceful and secure future of Afghanistan.

In the same panel, Ashita Mittal, representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Uzbekistan, has called for a regional consensus on combating drug trafficking.  She said that there is a need for further strengthening the borders due to increase in drug trafficking and illegal financial flows.

In another round of discussion, Shah Mahmood Miakhel, former Afghan defense minister, said that the Afghan politicians in exile have failed to design a unify strategy to combat extremism in the last two years.

At the end of the session, Davood Moradain, head of AISS, expressed gratitude for Tajikistan’s support for the people of Afghanistan. He said that after the collapse of the republic system, the world has left Afghanistan but the Tajikistan government didn’t leave Afghanistan and always stand ready to support the Afghan people.

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China launches global tax audit on super-rich to recover billions

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China has launched a global crackdown on its super-rich to collect hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes dating back decades, seeking to narrow income and wealth inequality and close a deepening budget deficit.

Authorities have intensified their scrutiny of overseas capital gains and investments, with investigations extending in some instances as far back as 2000. The campaign comes as Beijing attempts to significantly expand its oversight of outbound capital flows.

According to foreign officials, Chinese bankers, and family office executives who spoke to the Financial Times, Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been instructed to review the overseas investments of wealthy Chinese nationals and check whether the resulting income has been declared to tax authorities in Beijing.

The efforts, which form part of sweeping tax reforms targeting the country’s wealthy elite and offshore trusts, focus on gains derived from the acquisition of assets such as real estate, equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies.

Numerous officials, bankers, and advisers confirmed the retrospective nature of the campaign, noting that inquiries cover periods reaching back more than 25 years in certain cases.

A banker in southern China said that in recent months, Chinese banks have increasingly coordinated with tax authorities to freeze the accounts of wealthy clients until officials are satisfied that taxes on capital gains from overseas assets, accounts, and trusts have been paid.

“In standard practice, these wealthy individuals immediately pay the penalties and taxes in cash to get their accounts unfrozen,” the banker said.

The timeframes examined in the tax audits appear to vary significantly. For instance, an executive at a Shenzhen-based family office said clients were asked to pay taxes on gains generated from overseas assets between 2017 and 2022. No explanation was provided as to why that specific period was targeted.

Victor Shih, a professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, San Diego, said the motivation behind the new campaign was “clearly rooted in fiscal reasons.”

China’s fiscal revenues, where taxes plug a critical gap, have largely stagnated since the pandemic and contracted by 1.7% in 2025 to 21.6 trillion yuan, or $3.2 trillion. Total public revenue from land sales, once a primary source of state income, fell to 4.15 trillion yuan following a real estate market downturn, down from a peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021.

Last month, China also enacted comprehensive tax rules governing assets transferred to offshore trusts. According to a joint statement by China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, the regulation closed a legal loophole long utilized by wealthy individuals to protect their assets abroad.

Under the new rules, income generated from offshore trusts will be subject to a 20% tax across multiple stages.

A Singapore-based banker who manages overseas assets for wealthy Chinese nationals said the offshore trust tax “shocked” clients.

“There are people who established trusts for public assets, such as shares in listed companies. During periods when initial public offerings were very common, holding the right trust structure provided protection regarding income tax. This new decision has eliminated that advantage,” the banker said.

While experts suggest that some complex overseas structures may evade the new rules, many trust holders are expected to face a one-off tax liability. Reports indicate that some may be forced to sell assets to meet the payments.

Together with other tax reforms, the new policies will align China’s taxation system more closely with that of the US, where American taxpayers are generally taxed on their worldwide income.

Ye Yongqing, a Shanghai-based tax lawyer and partner at Anli Partners, said, “Regulatory bodies have steadily tightened oversight of cross-border capital flows, declarations of overseas income, and foreign exchange transactions. Consequently, the scope for wealthy Chinese to transfer assets abroad or structure their tax affairs through offshore vehicles has narrowed.”

Ye noted that Beijing has adopted a restrictive approach toward offshore trusts similar to US tax legislation, broadly rejecting attempts by taxpayers to use these vehicles to defer or entirely eliminate tax.

There are also indications that stricter tax collection from China’s wealthy has yielded results in recent years. Official data shows that personal income tax revenues rose 11.5% in 2025, driven by the impact of previous campaigns, including the taxation of Hong Kong stock transactions. This growth rate significantly outpaced the 0.8% expansion in overall tax revenues.

An executive at an immigration firm with offices in China and New York said authorities initially targeted wealthy Chinese trading US equities via Hong Kong or other overseas channels.

The executive said the inquiries are expected to expand next to individuals holding substantial financial assets in overseas bank accounts, particularly in Hong Kong, and ultimately to other forms of offshore wealth, including real estate.

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Japan links defense buildup to economic growth in annual white paper amid regional threats

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Japan’s government is framing its accelerating military buildup not only as a means of national defense, but also as a pathway to greater prosperity, with its latest defense white paper asserting that arms production can stimulate economic growth.

The document, an annual assessment of alleged threats posed by neighboring countries China, Russia, and North Korea, calls on Japan—long constrained by post-war limits on military activity—to leverage technology, fund ventures, and incorporate a higher proportion of commercial components into weapons manufacturing.

According to a Defense Ministry presentation document, the white paper “emphasizes that defense investments benefit the overall economy and the lives of the public.” That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy of utilizing broader strategic public spending to drive economic growth.

This approach is reflected in the document’s anime-style cover image. Departing from the soldiers, weaponry, and military insignia featured in many previous editions, the cover depicts a smiling family set against a glowing futuristic cityscape. A Defense Ministry official said the design was intended to convey a “futuristic image.”

The explicit link drawn between defense and future prosperity coincides with the Takaichi administration’s drafting of a new national security strategy. Military analysts anticipate that the strategy will outline further spending increases designed primarily to deter China.

“China’s military activities and other actions are a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community, representing the greatest strategic challenge facing Japan,” the white paper states.

Remarks by Takaichi in November indicating that Japan would act militarily in the event of a potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan drew a sharp reaction from Beijing. China termed the statement “extremely grave” and demanded its retraction.

Tokyo has assembled a financing package combining tax increases, spending reforms, and one-off revenues to fund Japan’s largest military buildup since World War II, raising defense-related spending to 2% of gross domestic product. However, Takaichi has yet to clearly articulate how additional military expansion will be funded without imposing further strain on already heavily burdened public finances.

The Takaichi government secured approval for a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for the fiscal year ending in March 2027. An additional 3.1 trillion yen package was later added to shield households and businesses from rising energy costs, underscoring the competing demands placed on public resources.

To date, the bulk of the new defense spending has been directed toward missiles capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 1,000 kilometers. A significant portion of future spending increases is expected to be allocated to uncrewed aerial vehicles and other uncrewed weapons systems of the type deployed extensively by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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