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Hezbollah open to disarmament talks if Israel ceases attacks, withdraws

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Hezbollah has indicated it might consider disarming if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and ceases its attacks, according to recent reports.

As calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament in Lebanon intensify, a senior Hezbollah official told Reuters that the organization is ready to discuss disarmament with the Lebanese President if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and halts its attacks.

Three Lebanese political sources noted that US-backed President Joseph Aoun pledged to ensure full state control of weapons when he assumed office in January and plans to begin discussions with Hezbollah on this matter soon.

Discussions about disarmament have gained momentum following last year’s conflict with Israel and the shifting power dynamics resulting from the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Hezbollah.

According to Reuters, “Hezbollah was significantly weakened in the 2024 conflict with Israel; it lost senior leaders and thousands of fighters, and a large portion of its rocket arsenal was destroyed.” The report summarized the situation as follows:

A senior Hezbollah official stated that the organization is prepared to discuss its weapons within the context of a national defense strategy, contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from five points in southern Lebanon.

The official told Reuters, “If Israel withdraws from the five points and ceases its attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah is ready to discuss disarmament.”

During the war, Israel conducted a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and largely withdrew after a ceasefire. However, in February, Israel decided not to abandon five strategic points, stating it would hand over these positions to Lebanese forces once the security situation allowed.

Despite a ceasefire in effect since November, Israeli airstrikes continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Washington demands Hezbollah’s disarmament and is preparing for nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Hezbollah has been regarded as Iran’s most powerful armed group in the region, but the ousting of Assad has disrupted its supply lines to Iran.

Reuters reported on Monday that some Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are considering disarming for the first time to avoid escalating conflict with the US.

Hezbollah has long rejected calls for disarmament from its opponents in Lebanon, asserting that its weapons are necessary to defend the country against Israel. These deep divisions led to a brief civil war in 2008.

Opponents argue that Hezbollah unilaterally drags the country into conflicts and that its large arsenal, operating outside state control, undermines state authority.

The US-brokered ceasefire stipulates the removal of all unauthorized military installations and the collection of weapons, starting from south of the Litani River.

Two sources close to Hezbollah said the organization is considering handing over its most effective weapons, such as drones and anti-tank missiles north of the Litani River, to the army.

President Aoun has stated that Hezbollah’s weapons can only be addressed through dialogue, as forced disarmament could trigger a new conflict.

Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai stated last week that all weapons should be under state control but emphasized that this requires time and diplomacy, adding that “Lebanon cannot afford another war.”

A Lebanese official said that communication channels have been opened with relevant stakeholders to “begin work on transferring weapons to state control” after the army and security forces expand state authority throughout Lebanon, noting that this is a move to implement Aoun’s policy.

The official added that the issue was also discussed with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key ally of Hezbollah, who plays a crucial role in resolving differences.

During her visit to Beirut over the weekend, US Representative Morgan Ortagus reiterated Washington’s position, stating that Hezbollah and other armed groups should be disarmed as soon as possible and that this task falls to the Lebanese army.

In an interview with Lebanon’s LBCI television on April 6, Ortagus said, “It is clear that Hezbollah must be disarmed. It is also clear that Israel will not tolerate terrorists attacking its territory. This is a position we understand.”

Minister Kamal Shehadi, a member of the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, stated that some ministers have requested a timeline for disarmament. Speaking to Reuters, Shehadi said that the process should not exceed six months, similar to the period applied to the disarmament of militias after the civil war.

He stated that a timeline-based approach, which sets a specific end date for the process, is “the only way to protect citizens from the recurrence of attacks that cause loss of life, economic damage, and destruction.”

The latest conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in October 2023 in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a speech on March 29 that the group no longer has an armed presence south of the Litani River and is adhering to the ceasefire, but that Israel is “violating it every day.” Israel claims that Hezbollah still maintains military infrastructure in the south.

Hezbollah argues that the responsibility for Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of attacks lies with the Lebanese state. Qassem noted that there is still time for diplomatic solutions, but if Israel does not comply with an agreement, “the resistance is ready” and may resort to “other options.”

Middle East

Qatar fund pledges $500 billion for US investments

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Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), plans to invest an additional $500 billion in the US over the next decade.

Mohammed Al Sowaidi, the Chairman of QIA, helped establish the institution’s presence in the US and explore opportunities there for many years.

Now, as the head of the $524 billion state-backed entity, he is pledging to invest an amount close to the fund’s current size as part of the Gulf country’s significant commitment.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Al Sowaidi stated that the new investments will target areas traditionally favored by the fund, such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and healthcare, while also aligning with President Donald Trump’s agenda of reindustrializing the US.

The $500 billion constitutes nearly half of Qatar’s total commitment of $1.2 trillion made during Trump’s visit this week.

“We are not divesting from other markets; we are increasing our presence in the US,” Al Sowaidi said, adding that the current US policy environment offers a “more promising direction” for long-term capital.

QIA is not the only institution in the Middle East pursuing an aggressive, US-focused investment strategy. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, state institutions in the United Arab Emirates, and the Kuwait Investment Authority are also planning to invest billions of dollars in similar sectors. This could lead to increased competition for the same deals and a higher risk of overpaying for assets.

Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds control $4 trillion in assets. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ranks first, followed by the Kuwait and Saudi Arabian investment authorities. QIA is ranked fourth in this list.

Al Sowaidi took over as CEO last year during a significant period for the fund, a time when billions of dollars are expected to flow into the treasury with the expansion of the country’s natural gas projects.

Anticipating new capital inflows, Al Sowaidi plans for the fund to provide capital to large companies, acquire stakes in publicly traded companies, and prioritize larger deals.

This marks a departure from QIA’s recent focus on smaller venture capital deals. Nevertheless, Al Sowaidi said this move is not a “real strategic change or transformation,” but rather an “further evolution” of the fund’s approach to keep pace with rapid global change.

QIA is already the world’s eighth-largest sovereign wealth fund and owns a number of high-profile assets, such as the Harrods department store and the Shard skyscraper in London.

Al Sowaidi joined QIA in 2010 under the leadership of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, who is considered one of the Middle East’s most recognized investors.

Sheikh Hamad was succeeded at QIA by Ahmed Al-Sayed, who helped facilitate many large deals, including Glencore’s acquisition of Xstrata for $29 billion.

Al Sowaidi, on the other hand, spent his early career in America, where he helped establish the US office and eventually became the head of investments for the region.

Holding bachelor’s degrees in finance and statistics from the University of Missouri, Al Sowaidi held positions such as head of private equity funds and head of the QIA Advisory office in New York.

At that time, QIA was known for acquiring stakes in prominent companies like Barclays and Credit Suisse.

Al Sowaidi said the fund typically acquires minority stakes in successful businesses, and transaction size varies greatly depending on the asset class.

“In publicly traded stocks, we can make large investments. In the private equity space, we can do multi-billion dollar transactions, but we can also maintain our agility, especially in sectors like technology or healthcare,” the executive said.

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Middle East

Israel, Syria officials discuss normalization in secret Azerbaijan talks

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Israeli and Syrian officials discussed the possibility of joining the Abraham Accords, including normalization and a border agreement, during secret talks in Azerbaijan. Türkiye was also involved in the discussions.

It has emerged that Israel has been conducting secret talks with the new Syrian administration led by HTS. According to reports from Channel 12 television, relayed by The Times of Israel, recent contacts involved discussions on Syria’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords and the prospect of normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. It was reported that the talks were facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the newspaper Haaretz wrote that Qatar was also involved in the process and that discussions had been ongoing for months.

Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, confirmed last week that security-related discussions were continuing through mediators but did not comment on possible diplomatic relations.

Channel 12 reported that a meeting was recently held in Azerbaijan, during which the head of the Israeli Army Operations Directorate, Major General Oded Basyuk, met with representatives from the new Syrian administration. According to the report, Turkish officials were also present at the meeting.

Last week, US President Donald Trump invited Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Shara, to join the Abraham Accords. Trump reiterated this invitation during his meeting with Shara in Riyadh. Following the meeting, he stated, “I suggested to him that he join the agreement, and he said yes.” However, Trump indicated that they were at the beginning of the process, saying, “There is still much to be done.”

According to Channel 12, Israel greeted Trump’s lifting of sanctions against Syria with cautious optimism. This is because Israel is not disregarding the possibility that this situation could affect the shaping of its northern border and future relations between the two countries.

This situation differs from Israel’s previous stance. According to the report, Israel had previously been hesitant about the idea of interacting with the Shara administration, which it had labeled “terrorist” and which has a history with groups linked to Al-Qaeda. However, the view is now gaining traction that Syria could move out from under Iran’s influence and potentially come under the influence of the US. It is assessed that these developments could also have a positive impact on Israel-Türkiye relations.

According to a Reuters report from February, Israel advocates for Syria to remain decentralized and isolated from the outside world. In this context, Israel continues its diplomatic pressure on the US, particularly with the promise of protecting the Druze community living in the north.

Israel’s military operations in Syria also continue after the overthrow of the Assad regime. Israel continues to bomb former regime military targets across the country and has also deployed ground troops to the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and some points south of Damascus.

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Middle East

Questions surround US-Saudi Arabia mega defense deal

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The US describes the $142 billion defense agreement signed with Saudi Arabia as “the largest defense sales deal in history.”

The agreement, announced during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East this week, appears to be an ambitious and comprehensive deal involving purchases related to air force and space, missile defense, coastal security, and various other improvements.

On the other hand, when the announced sum and previously declared budget figures are considered together, the dimensions of the agreement raise doubts.

Bloomberg points out that, like the broader $600 billion economic agreement, the defense deal also lacks any details.

The report indicates that those skeptical of the administration’s activities immediately raised questions about the figures.

For example, according to estimates by Bruce Riedel, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, Saudi Arabia’s total defense budget for this year was only $78 billion.

Riedel, a former senior US intelligence and national security official, says, “This is great advertising; it makes this trip look like a magnificent success. But the numbers are inconsistent.”

The White House, the Pentagon, and the Saudi Arabian Embassy did not respond to questions about the details of the agreement, such as which systems the kingdom will purchase, the terms of the potential contract, and delivery dates. The US State Department, in turn, referred questions to the White House.

Bloomberg states, “Of course, both Democratic and Republican administrations have a long history of turning previous agreements into headline-grabbing comprehensive deals for presidents to sign during their trips,” and notes that Trump had done this before, during his first presidential trip to Saudi Arabia in 2017, when he announced that the Saudis would spend $110 billion on US weapons to modernize their military.

This package included deals negotiated under the Obama administration, as well as other agreements that were in the early stages of a long process requiring Congressional approval and negotiations between the buyer and defense companies.

According to a fact sheet released by the State Department in January, the 2017 agreement has so far resulted in over $30 billion in military sales to Saudi Arabia.

Another potential obstacle is Saudi Arabia’s ability to afford large-scale defense purchases due to falling oil prices and significant domestic obligations.

The country has had to take on more debt, with its debts increasing by approximately $30 billion in the first quarter, reaching a record level.

If an agreement is finally reached between the White House and Saudi Arabia, experts will begin to sort out new and old elements. According to State Department data, active US military sales to Saudi Arabia already exceed $129 billion.

According to Bloomberg, while the figures may be unclear, they may not actually be very important. According to experts, the agreement also emphasizes the depth of the US-Saudi Arabia partnership.

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