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Hezbollah open to disarmament talks if Israel ceases attacks, withdraws

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Hezbollah has indicated it might consider disarming if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and ceases its attacks, according to recent reports.

As calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament in Lebanon intensify, a senior Hezbollah official told Reuters that the organization is ready to discuss disarmament with the Lebanese President if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and halts its attacks.

Three Lebanese political sources noted that US-backed President Joseph Aoun pledged to ensure full state control of weapons when he assumed office in January and plans to begin discussions with Hezbollah on this matter soon.

Discussions about disarmament have gained momentum following last year’s conflict with Israel and the shifting power dynamics resulting from the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Hezbollah.

According to Reuters, “Hezbollah was significantly weakened in the 2024 conflict with Israel; it lost senior leaders and thousands of fighters, and a large portion of its rocket arsenal was destroyed.” The report summarized the situation as follows:

A senior Hezbollah official stated that the organization is prepared to discuss its weapons within the context of a national defense strategy, contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from five points in southern Lebanon.

The official told Reuters, “If Israel withdraws from the five points and ceases its attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah is ready to discuss disarmament.”

During the war, Israel conducted a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and largely withdrew after a ceasefire. However, in February, Israel decided not to abandon five strategic points, stating it would hand over these positions to Lebanese forces once the security situation allowed.

Despite a ceasefire in effect since November, Israeli airstrikes continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Washington demands Hezbollah’s disarmament and is preparing for nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Hezbollah has been regarded as Iran’s most powerful armed group in the region, but the ousting of Assad has disrupted its supply lines to Iran.

Reuters reported on Monday that some Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are considering disarming for the first time to avoid escalating conflict with the US.

Hezbollah has long rejected calls for disarmament from its opponents in Lebanon, asserting that its weapons are necessary to defend the country against Israel. These deep divisions led to a brief civil war in 2008.

Opponents argue that Hezbollah unilaterally drags the country into conflicts and that its large arsenal, operating outside state control, undermines state authority.

The US-brokered ceasefire stipulates the removal of all unauthorized military installations and the collection of weapons, starting from south of the Litani River.

Two sources close to Hezbollah said the organization is considering handing over its most effective weapons, such as drones and anti-tank missiles north of the Litani River, to the army.

President Aoun has stated that Hezbollah’s weapons can only be addressed through dialogue, as forced disarmament could trigger a new conflict.

Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai stated last week that all weapons should be under state control but emphasized that this requires time and diplomacy, adding that “Lebanon cannot afford another war.”

A Lebanese official said that communication channels have been opened with relevant stakeholders to “begin work on transferring weapons to state control” after the army and security forces expand state authority throughout Lebanon, noting that this is a move to implement Aoun’s policy.

The official added that the issue was also discussed with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key ally of Hezbollah, who plays a crucial role in resolving differences.

During her visit to Beirut over the weekend, US Representative Morgan Ortagus reiterated Washington’s position, stating that Hezbollah and other armed groups should be disarmed as soon as possible and that this task falls to the Lebanese army.

In an interview with Lebanon’s LBCI television on April 6, Ortagus said, “It is clear that Hezbollah must be disarmed. It is also clear that Israel will not tolerate terrorists attacking its territory. This is a position we understand.”

Minister Kamal Shehadi, a member of the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, stated that some ministers have requested a timeline for disarmament. Speaking to Reuters, Shehadi said that the process should not exceed six months, similar to the period applied to the disarmament of militias after the civil war.

He stated that a timeline-based approach, which sets a specific end date for the process, is “the only way to protect citizens from the recurrence of attacks that cause loss of life, economic damage, and destruction.”

The latest conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in October 2023 in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a speech on March 29 that the group no longer has an armed presence south of the Litani River and is adhering to the ceasefire, but that Israel is “violating it every day.” Israel claims that Hezbollah still maintains military infrastructure in the south.

Hezbollah argues that the responsibility for Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of attacks lies with the Lebanese state. Qassem noted that there is still time for diplomatic solutions, but if Israel does not comply with an agreement, “the resistance is ready” and may resort to “other options.”

Middle East

Israel alarmed by US decision to withdraw from Syria

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Washington’s notification to Tel Aviv regarding its decision to withdraw from Syria has caused concern in Israel. The Tel Aviv administration is worried about Türkiye gaining strategic power in the region.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the Washington administration informed Tel Aviv that it would begin a phased withdrawal of troops from Syria within two months. It also stated that Israel is attempting to prevent the US from withdrawing its military assets from Syria. The Tel Aviv administration is reportedly trying to prevent this move due to “fears that Türkiye will take over more strategic assets in the new Syria.”

The report noted that US President Donald Trump had previously announced his intention to withdraw troops from Syria, and the Pentagon, which has been working on withdrawal plans for a long time and is preparing to implement them, has informed the Israelis about this.

Israeli officials have “expressed serious concerns,” but this has reportedly had no impact on the US’s decision to withdraw.

Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen television reported last week that the US military had begun evacuating some military bases in northeastern Syria, moving personnel and equipment to Iraq.

According to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Yedioth Ahronoth, the US withdrawal of troops from northern Syria has the potential to increase tensions between Türkiye and Israel and “increase Türkiye’s appetite to control more strategic military points in Syria.”

The report stated that the US withdrawal process from Syria and President Trump’s remarks about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last week have put Israeli security institutions on alert, and Israeli officials did not find Trump’s mediation offer “reassuring.”

It was stated that Israel’s attacks in recent weeks on the T4 military base in the Tedmur (Palmyra) district of Homs province, where Türkiye was said to be stationed, were carried out to delay Türkiye’s deployment before the US withdrawal, and it was seen as a “race against time” before the US began to withdraw troops.

It is reported that Israel is afraid of the possibility that Türkiye will limit Israel’s freedom of movement in Syria and pose a potential threat to the Syrian territories it occupies in the future.

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Syria may recognize Israel by 2026, claims former UK diplomat

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According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, the Syrian administration led by HTŞ has assured the United Kingdom that they will recognize Israel by the end of 2026.

Craig Murray, the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan and a human rights advocate, raised a striking allegation on his personal blog. In a post based on British diplomatic sources, Murray claimed that Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed Shara), the “president” who effectively controls Syria, has assured the United Kingdom that he will officially recognize Israel by the end of 2026 and that ambassadors will be appointed reciprocally.

According to the allegation, this move will be implemented in exchange for Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

Murray stated that the termination of Israel’s occupation of Syrian territories was not discussed as part of the agreement, and that the United Kingdom views this issue as a “bilateral matter.” It was also stated that Shara did not prioritize this demand.

According to Murray, the European Union’s foreign affairs units believe that Shara’s declared council of ministers has fulfilled its commitment to the EU to establish an “inclusive government” at the Brussels Conference on March 17. This commitment included the inclusion of Alawite and Christian communities, as well as women, in the administration.

Murray continued: “However, when looking at the 24-member cabinet announced on March 27, it was noted that 21 ministers, including those in critical ministries such as foreign affairs and finance, were Sunni men, with only one female minister who is both Christian and a Canadian citizen. The minority representatives in the cabinet (one Christian, one Alawite, and one Druze) were limited to insignificant ministries. The Shiite community was not given any representation.”

The former British diplomat described the EU’s acceptance of this picture as an “inclusive government” as a “farce.”

Murray stated, “Shara’s pro-Israel stance seems to have taken precedence over all other criteria.”

Craig Murray, a former member of the British Foreign Office, also claimed, again based on the same source, that Shara receives direct support from MI6 and British special forces. According to Murray, the primary mission of these units is to prevent possible rebellions among the militants affiliated with Shara.

Murray said that the Chechen, Uzbek, and Uighur fighters among these groups are currently satisfied with the “spoils of victory” they have obtained, but may not welcome a move such as the recognition of Israel in the future.

Murray also shared his own prediction at this point, saying that Shara may eliminate the radical elements within himself in the future: “I think that this Western-backed regime will eventually liquidate the most fanatical elements within itself. Otherwise, it seems impossible for him to maintain this balance as both an Islamic fundamentalist and a pro-US/Israel leader.”

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Ceasefire talks in Gaza intensify before Trump visit

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Ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza have accelerated ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit in mid-May. It was claimed that Hamas agreed to release more Israeli hostages for a ceasefire, and the US promised to pressure Israel to start permanent ceasefire negotiations. In addition, the disarmament of Hamas under Egyptian supervision is on the agenda.

After the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, was completed, the Israeli administration did not agree to move on to the second phase, in which it had to end its occupation of Gaza. It requested that the first phase of the ceasefire be extended and, in return, Hamas release 11 Israeli hostages. Hamas, which wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire, responded to Israel’s new offer by saying that it could release 5 hostages. Israel rejected the proposal and restarted the Gaza attacks on March 18. Since then, attacks and ground occupation have continued, while negotiations for a ceasefire have also been conducted.

According to a report by Saudi Arabia-based El-Arabiya, Israel stated in its latest offer that it was ready to reduce the number of hostages to be released. It was reported that Hamas also agreed to release more hostages. However, no clear number was given.

If an agreement is reached under the proposed draft, the hostages will be released in two stages, and humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip.

In addition, it was stated that the US promised Hamas that it would force Israel into negotiations to end the war; it was noted that discussions on whether Hamas leaders could stay in Gaza were postponed to a later date.

The Saudi source also reported that, as part of a possible agreement, Hamas would provide medical reports on the health conditions of the hostages.

According to a report by Haaretz newspaper, based on Palestinian sources, the Cairo and Doha administrations are working with the US on a new phase of the ceasefire agreement reached in January. This phase will also include negotiations to end the 18-month war.

According to the news, Egypt submitted a permanent ceasefire proposal that includes the disarmament of Hamas and that this be done under Cairo’s supervision.

The report also stated that Hamas does not expect major results from the current negotiations, but believes there is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in mid-May.

Meanwhile, according to Ynet, which conveyed its source without explanation, the US assured Hamas that if it agreed to release more than 8 hostages, Israel would participate in negotiations to end the war.

A Hamas official told AFP on Friday that the Cairo delegation, headed by the group’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, hoped to achieve “real progress that would end the war, stop the attacks, and ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Gaza.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday evening that Netanyahu emphasized in his meeting with the family of hostage Eitan Mor that efforts to rescue the hostages held by Hamas were continuing “even at this very moment.”

The Times of Israel published on Friday, citing two officials close to the talks, that Netanyahu softened his demands after his meeting with Trump in Washington last week.

The officials who spoke to the newspaper said on Thursday that Israel had conveyed its official response to the latest Egyptian-mediated offer. According to this response, Israel is demanding the release of hostages in the first two weeks of the 45-day ceasefire and rejects Hamas’s previously proposed time-phased release plan.

In addition, the Israeli side wants to reduce the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage. These prisoners include those sentenced to life imprisonment. The latest offer also requests the delivery of the bodies of 16 Israelis held in Gaza. In return, the bodies of Gazans held by Israel will be handed over.

On the other hand, it is claimed that Netanyahu has the support of his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war. However, opinion polls also show that the majority of the public supports ending the war in exchange for the release of the hostages. It is thought that only 24 of the 59 hostages held by Hamas are still alive.

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