Diplomacy
High-Stakes Diplomacy: Sochi Summit Tackles Grain Agreement, Ukraine Peace and Syria Normalization
The Sochi Summit, set to take place on September 4th, is poised to address a range of critical issues, with the Grain Agreement, potential Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, and the Syria dossier taking center stage in the discussions. These prominent agenda items raise several pressing questions: Can the existing grain agreement be sustained? Are conditions conducive for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine? What role will Turkey play in these negotiations, and what lies ahead for Ankara-Damascus normalization? Eminent figures, E. Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin and Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal, have provided insightful analysis on these matters for Harici.
At the heart of this summit lies the Grain Corridor agreement, which ended with Russia’s withdrawal. Prior to President Erdoğan’s meeting with President Putin, the foreign ministers of both nations convened. During their joint press statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov conveyed Russia’s stance on the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement:
* Russia is open to returning to the grain agreement once its conditions in the package agreement with the United Nations (UN) are met.
* Russia has plans to send one million tons of grain to Turkey for processing, with financial support from Qatar, destined for countries facing urgent grain needs.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also shared pertinent information:
*The UN, with Turkey’s collaboration, is preparing a new set of grain agreement proposals.
*To ensure the uninterrupted export of Russian grain and fertilizer, Russia’s demands must be met.
* The grain agreement holds immense significance for global food security and the stability of the Black Sea region.
Retired Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin, former head of the Intelligence Department of the General Staff, anticipates a reevaluation of last year’s grain corridor agreement. However, he believes Russia may propose shipping grain to Turkey for redistribution to countries in urgent need, casting doubt on Russia’s return to the existing grain deal. His rationale is rooted in the Western embargo on Russian fertilizer and grain exports, which, if extended again, might erode Russia’s incentive to maintain the current agreement.
International Relations Expert Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal offered insights into Turkey’s proposal and Russia’s reluctance to embrace it. While Turkey and the UN seek a grain agreement resembling last year’s model, unresolved issues with the UN’s commitment to Russia’s agricultural bank and the lack of insurance coverage for ships transporting Russian grain contribute to Russia’s skepticism. This situation mirrors past Western promises, reminiscent of assurances given in the 1990s concerning NATO’s expansion eastward, which were ultimately unfulfilled. Consequently, Russia may insist on delivering grain grants to nations in dire need.
Ünal noted that Russia’s alternative grain deal proposal encompasses a limited quantity designated as grants for African countries facing acute shortages. Russia’s intention is to fulfill commitments made at the summit with African nations.
However, the more crucial issue revolves around the transportation of Russian and Ukrainian grain to global markets. Ünal underscored the complexities involved:
“Ukraine transports some grain to Eastern Europe via land routes, but objections from other nations due to the lower cost of Ukrainian grain complicate matters. Last year, 60-70% of Ukrainian grain transited the Black Sea corridor, with ships inspected in the Straits to prevent weapon smuggling, a concession Turkey made despite the Montreux Convention granting sole authority to search ships in the Straits. However, this corridor closed following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and unfulfilled promises to Russia.”
Recently, a civilian cargo ship made the first voyage from Ukraine to Turkey since the grain deal’s collapse, but this experimental shipment raises concerns about ship contents and safety. Turkey deems this route risky and opposes it, potentially raising the specter of conflict with NATO countries.
İsmail Hakkı Pekin cautioned about the dangers posed by such experimental shipments, highlighting the potential for naval confrontations at sea.
In response to the United States’ proposal to increase grain shipments via the Danube River, Ünal pointed out the difficulties in implementing this solution, such as grain transportation logistics, potential Russian interference, and increased costs.
The U.S.’s motivation for such proposals may involve maintaining existing sanctions against Russia. More than thirty million tons of grain were shipped through the Black Sea last year, making alternative routes impractical.
Ünal warned that the U.S. might seek NATO naval involvement in the Black Sea to enforce its goals, a move that could escalate tensions.
When asked about potential alternative solutions if promises to Russia remain unfulfilled, Ünal suggested that Turkey could purchase Russian grain and resell it, possibly including Ukrainian grain. This arrangement would serve Turkey’s grain industry needs and enable it to access global markets, aligning with Western interests despite their reluctance to see Russian grain sold.
Turning to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the joint statement from Fidan and Lavrov indicated Turkey’s willingness to facilitate or mediate negotiations when conditions permit. While Turkey advocates for lasting peace and regional stability, Russia finds Ukrainian President Zelensky’s peace proposal unacceptable.
The Erdoğan-Putin meeting is expected to broach the topic, with the possibility of both sides exploring the terms for peace. Potential conditions may include Ukraine ceding Crimea in exchange for a federalized Ukrainian state, incorporating Donetsk and Lugansk as constituent republics, and dismantling neo-Nazi elements.
Ünal noted that peace based on these terms is plausible but contingent on convincing the U.S. and the UK, currently in election cycles. President Biden’s need for a successful war narrative may deter peace talks. However, if President Trump is reelected, the possibility of peace negotiations may emerge, necessitating Turkey’s mediation.
Ünal emphasized that Turkey’s balanced approach has fostered trust among the involved parties.
Pekin echoed concerns about the U.S. elections and posited that peace talks may remain a distant possibility.
The potential for normalization between Turkey and Syria is another pivotal issue at the Sochi Summit. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed discussions on the subject with Fidan but provided no details.
Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal expressed optimism about the prospects of Ankara-Damascus normalization, citing Syria’s elevated negotiating position. Moscow may advocate for Turkey’s gradual withdrawal from Syrian territory, potentially involving the return of refugees and collaborative efforts against the PKK/YPG, akin to the Adana Memorandum’s revival. Turkey may need to recognize organizations designated as terrorists by Syria, accommodating them within the Adana Memorandum framework. Recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) might also be part of the normalization process to create states unafraid of Western pressure.
Retired intelligence chief İsmail Hakkı Pekin, however, cautioned that Syria’s internal turmoil might overshadow normalization efforts. The situation in Syria is fluid, with potential flashpoints, such as U.S. pressure on Assad to grant autonomy to certain regions, including Suwayda and Daraa, exacerbating instability. Turkey may need to secure its interests through collaboration with Assad, navigating the delicate balance between U.S. opposition and its own security concerns.
The Sochi Summit promises to address critical international issues, from grain agreements to peace talks and regional normalization. The summit’s outcomes will depend on diplomatic finesse, geopolitical dynamics, and the evolving global landscape.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
-
America2 weeks agoUS controls $13 billion in Venezuelan oil revenues with little transparency, raising congressional concerns
-
America2 weeks agoUS agricultural superpower status at risk as trade wars shift global markets to Brazil
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoPalantir CEO Alex Karp says he would not vote for ‘pro-Russian’ AfD in Germany
-
Europe2 weeks agoUS secures multi-billion-dollar energy and AI deals at Three Seas summit in Dubrovnik
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoWorld Bank warns US-Iran conflict could slash global growth to 1.3% as inflation looms
-
Middle East2 weeks agoPentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany accelerates African energy diplomatic push to secure natural gas and green hydrogen
-
Middle East2 weeks agoOil passes $90 as tanker attacks halt Hormuz shipping
