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MIDDLE EAST

How oil-rich Iraq ran out of dollars?

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Three years ago, Iraq was on the brink of expelling US troops, but now, Prime Minister al-Sudani asserts that his nation needs US and NATO forces. Although he gives ISIS as the reason, the dollar crisis in the country seems to be a more plausible explanation. The political actors backing al-Sudani blame the United States for the crisis but having to handle this crisis shortly, al-Sudani sees the exit in reconciliation with Washington.

The political turmoil in Iraq after the elections in October 2021 resulted in al-Sudani taking the seat of Prime Minister as a candidate of the so-called Iran-backed Shiite alliance in October 2022. in his first US interview since taking office, al-Sudani said, “we need the foreign forces to eliminate ISIS.” “Iraq would like similar relations with Washington to what Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf oil-and-gas producers enjoy,” al-Sudani told WSJ, “we strive to “see Iraq have a good relationship with Iran and the US.” Stating, “President Biden is different from other presidents in that he knows the situation in Iraq completely,” al-Sudani thinks it might be the foundation to build an excellent relationship between Baghdad and Washington. al-Sudani’s views regarding keeping the US and NATO forces in Iraq are deemed significant since he has been publicly silent about this issue until now. After the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike on Baghdad, the Iraqi parliament voted a resolution to withdraw American troops from the country. Currently, 2,000 American troops in Iraq under the umbrella of NATO are training the Iraqi armed forces.

According to Foreign Policy, al-Sudani’s public support for the presence of US troops originates from the threat of ISIS. al-Sudani’s words, however, are not an unexpected turn; instead, they reflect a steady movement toward the United States in recent years. The article’s title is also noteworthy: “The New Iraqi Leader tilts the scales toward the USA.” Former US officials told Foreign Policy that even amid the tension escalating after the assassination of Soleimani, Iraqi officials had expressed support for the US military mission behind closed doors to ensure to defeat of ISIS and counter Iranian influence. “US presence that was hanging by a thread in pre-pandemic Iraq, at the tenuous invite of the Baghdad government, now appears to be there to stay—indefinitely,” interprets the journal the situation that became concrete upon al-Sudani’s statement. Although al-Sudani created uproar in Iraq, the more significant problem is that Centcom has no planning or vision about the future of the US-Iraq relationship.

“The presence of foreign military forces in this country is a very dangerous issue,” remarked Nouri al-Maliki, the leader of the Shiite alliance that brought al-Sudani to the office and kept him in power. It is remarkable that Maliki’s statement followed al-Sudani’s controversial comment.

Then, why did al-Sudani express his public support for the presence of the US troops in the country “independently” of the coalition behind his power and despite growing anti-American sentiments in Iraqi society over the last several years?

The reason for the crisis: US sanctions

Sudani employs the existence of ISIS to justify his statement, but it seems that the underlying issue is the currency crisis that shook the Iraqi markets. Unlike other oil-rich countries, the second largest oil producer of OPEC after Saudi Arabia, Iraq stands out for its economic problems and the massive social protests these sparked. The current crisis, however, is not the same as the usual mechanism of bribery and corruption that plagues Iraq. It has everything to do with US sanctions. The restrictions put into practice by the US to prevent the illegal allocation of dollars for the interests of other US-sanctioned countries, especially Iran, have triggered a severe dollar crisis in the country.

The USA has implemented a “regulation” to the system that allows the daily foreign exchange auctions of the Iraqi Central Bank, which has been in effect for 20 years since the invasion and permitted banks to sell dollars without any restrictions. In November 2022, the US Federal Reserve (FED) started enforcing strict screening on the operations of Iraqi commercial banks, such as requiring all clients to disclose their identities before a transfer of funds could be made. In fact, these measures were implemented after almost two-year planning by the Central Bank of Iraq, the US Department of the Treasury, and the FED. However, in spite of all the planning, since the strict regulations have been in effect, more than 80% of daily dollar transactions have been blocked. As a result of the slowdown in dollar transactions, the markets have rushed into the dinar, ultimately creating a double-sided “currency crisis.”

Protests in rise

Due to the crisis, the value of the Iraqi dinar has weakened vis-à-vis the dollar, leading to a sharp rise in food prices. Over the currency drop, on January 23, al-Sudani dismissed Central Bank Governor Mustafa Ghaleb Mukheef on his request, and Muhsen al-Allaq replaced him. After a slight decrease in the exchange rate following the replacement of the office at the Central Bank, it has begun to increase again quickly. The official rate for Iraqi citizens set by the Central Bank stands at 1,470 dinars to the dollar. Established by the Central Bank of Iraq is 1470 Iraqi dinars per dollar, while on the black market and free market, it ranges from 1590 to 1620 dinars.

Iraqis slowly started to protest against the devaluation of the dinar. The protesters gathering outside the Central Bank called on the government to halt the depreciation of the dinar. Those demonstrating in Iraq called on al-Sudani’s government to do everything they could to bring down inflation. Mainly, they demanded that staples like eggs be made more affordable. Protesters from south Iraq also participated in the demonstration in Baghdad.

The ruling coalition blames the US

Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Fatah Coalition and a partner of the Iraqi government, accused the US of using the dollar as a weapon to starve the people in Iraq. “Since the reserves of this country’s central bank are at the Federal Reserve’s disposal, Iraq lacks economic independence. Everyone now knows how the Americans use the dollar as a weapon to starve people. The Americans are currently putting the most pressure on Iraq to prevent its relations with Europe and other countries of the world,” said al-Amiri.

Maliki, the head of the same coalition, claims that the United States uses the dollar as a global weapon: “They try to destabilize it by using dollar paper.” Maliki, however, sees the United States as the key to solving the issue: “There is no solution to the dollar crisis except by controlling the dollar and understanding with the American side.”

Here, the reason behind al-Sudani’s controversial statement that US soldiers are required in Iraq is nothing but Maliki’s proposed solution. al-Sudani is trying to find a way to ease the effects of the dollar crisis. In this regard, he plans to send the Foreign Minister to Washington at the start of February, followed by his own visit. The Iraqi premier may try to negotiate looser US screening on the movement of dollars or at least a postponement of such controls. As the Prime Minister of a coalition accused of being “pro-Iran” and even a “puppet of Iran,” al-Sudani may have hoped that sending sound signals to the United States would facilitate reconciliation. Against this backdrop, Foreign Affairs’s inference that the “The New Iraqi Leader tilts the scales toward the USA” seems an unrealistic expectation.

The dollar is indeed a powerful winning tool in the hands of the USA. The United States may offer the Iraqi government a short-term solution to the pressing crisis. The country is still nothing but one of the major oil producers, although the post-invasion system in Iraq is plagued by bribery, corruption, and smuggling. The greater challenge is that Iraq lacks the political will to combat the issue and blow the cobwebs away.

MIDDLE EAST

Some Afghan journalists contemplating suicide; but why?

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In the past three years, the Taliban have severely limited access to information in Afghanistan and in some cases made it almost impossible. Many journalists who operate from the country say that the space for their activities is getting narrower every day.

These reporters state that in addition to self-censorship, they have experienced a kind of unwanted imprisonment and spend days and nights in their homes. They cannot move freely in the community for fear of interrogation and revenge from the Taliban.

In this report, two journalists have confirmed that they thought of suicide due to pressure from the Taliban. They say that life in Afghanistan has become difficult and that the Taliban have appeared as “death angle” and that if they did not have children, they would commit suicide.

These journalists are disappointed with the institutions that support the media and say that they have no way out of the existing problems. This is despite the fact that the Taliban have imposed more restrictions during the past month and have banned the publication of photos and images in five provinces.

One of the journalists who works under the Taliban regime says that the space for journalists to breathe and live is getting narrower and more limited every day. According to him, the Taliban have created an atmosphere where reporters and media spend day and night in worry and fear, and because of this, they cannot cover many events.

Taliban severely restricted the media landscape in Afghanistan, making it nearly impossible for journalist to operate

She emphasized that in some cases, due to the fear of the Taliban, she has covered news events a few days after they happened to prevent the Taliban from drawing attention and focusing on herself.

This reporter, who does not want to be named in the report, emphasizes that the difficult living conditions, the strict restrictions of the Taliban and the fear of being arrested and interrogated by this group made her think of suicide.

Samera, one of the Afghan female journalists, using her pin name for security reason, said that the painful experience of working under the Taliban rule has made her think about suicide many times. She says that she was once arrested by the Taliban for filming for news coverage.

“My arrest by the Taliban was the most bitter and painful experience, which made forced me to think of committing suicide,” She lamented.

This journalist says: “When the Taliban arrested me, I was thinking what my family, my colleagues and the community would say if I stayed in the prison at night?”

She furthered, “Because the arrest of a woman by the Taliban willfully or unwittingly has negative and harmful consequences that one cannot think of anything other than suicide.”

When the Taliban took some journalists, including females to the court, one of them said “why did you bring them, you should have shot them.”

“There I saw an old man who was the same age as my father. He threw himself at Talib’s feet and apologized, but Talib did not pay any attention to him,” she added.

An Afghan journalist said that he will commit suicide this time if Taliban arrest him

Omid, another journalist who used his pin name to avoid arrest, has thought of suicide many times, and he was also arrested several times. He says that despite his efforts, he did not succeed in leaving Afghanistan. “I’ll commit suicide if the Taliban arrest me once again,” he warned.

He furthered that he has heard a lot about torture and ill-treatment in the Taliban prison and has a horrible image of the prison scenes in his mind.

“Before the Taliban torture and insult me ​​in a terrible way, or take a video commitment from me… I prefer to put an end to this life,” he warned, adding that “I think that suicide is the only way to end all this suffering and misery.”

Another journalist who is currently in Pakistan also confirms that he thought of suicide due to mental and psychological problems. She says: “God is a witness to the hardships I experienced in Pakistan, it had ruined my soul and spirit so much that I thought if I committed suicide, I might get rid of these ordeals.”

In the past one month, the Taliban have continuously and systematically prevented the video activities of the media in a number of provinces across the country. After banning photography and filming, this group has now banned five provinces from these activities and announced that this restriction will be gradually applied in all provinces.

The Taliban authorities have informed the local media of the ban on taking pictures and publishing them, as well as banning the video interviews of their officials in Nangarhar province.

Azizullah Mustafa, the deputy governor of the Taliban in Nangarhar has ordered all the local employees that according to the order of the Taliban supreme leader it is forbidden to take pictures of living creatures and publish them, and the media is only allowed to communicate with Taliban officials.

Taliban already banned taking pictures of living creatures in five provinces in Afghanistan

Kandahar, Takhar, Badghis, Helmand and Nangarhar are among the provinces, where taking pictures of living creatures and publishing them, as well as video interviews, are completely prohibited.

The Taliban have closed three radio stations in Khost province during the past month under extensive pressure. “Gharghasht”, “Zheman” and “Long” radios have been blocked by the Taliban and they have resumed their activities after providing a written commitment to comply with the Taliban’s orders.

The Center of Afghan Journalists has already announced that the Taliban have imposed 17 restrictive directives against the media. These restrictions include preventing women from appearing on national radio and television, banning media coverage of demonstrations and civil protests, imposing restrictions on access to information and publishing news and reports, requiring journalists and media to introduce the Taliban regime as the “government of Afghanistan”.

Also, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on interviews with their opponents and critics. They have banned the broadcast of international television programs in Afghanistan and have imposed restrictions on publishing commercials with political, security and social content. In addition, the media have been prohibited from criticizing the work of Taliban officials, and filming, video interviews, and the publication of women’s voices have been prohibited from the media.

Also, it is forbidden to work with the media that have been declared “forbidden” by the Taliban, and in Helmand province, the publication of women’s voices in the local media is completely prohibited. Orders have also been issued to the media to refrain from using “foreign terms”, which refers to the use of “
“Persian words” for university and college. Prohibiting photography and filming in official and informal meetings of local Taliban officials in Kandahar, and banning girls from making phone calls to radios and televisions in Khost province are among the other restrictions imposed by the Taliban on domestic media in Afghanistan.

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MIDDLE EAST

ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant on war Crimes charges

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, citing war crimes in Gaza.

Despite sanctions and threats from Israel and the United States, the ICC’s decision was based on overwhelming evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians. Among the charges, Netanyahu and Gallant were accused of using starvation as a weapon, with the court stating these allegations are founded on “reasonable grounds.”

Israel reportedly employed its intelligence agency, the Mossad, to spy on, hack, pressure, defame, and allegedly threaten senior ICC officials in an effort to obstruct investigations. Although these efforts were partially exposed through the international press and statements from ICC staff, they failed to deter the Court’s proceedings.

The ICC also clarified that it is undeterred by Israel’s non-recognition of the Court’s authority or its rulings.

Additionally, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masr on related charges.

While this ruling may not immediately halt Israeli military actions in Gaza or reduce U.S. support for Israel, it is likely to deepen divisions among European nations over their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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MIDDLE EAST

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

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Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the Hamas Political Bureau, announced on Al-Aqsa TV that Hamas had accepted a proposal to form a committee to administer Gaza, with the condition that its operations be entirely local.

In his statement regarding the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, al-Hayya said: “An idea has been proposed to establish a committee for the administration of Gaza. This suggestion was made by our Egyptian brothers. We have responded responsibly and positively. We accept this proposal on the condition that the committee will operate in a fully localized manner, overseeing all aspects of daily life in Gaza.”

Earlier this month, representatives from both the Hamas and Fatah movements convened in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss a potential ceasefire and the establishment of this administrative committee.

Commenting on the indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel, al-Hayya stated: “There will be no prisoner exchange until the Israeli genocide stops. This is an interconnected equation. We are very clear on this: we want this aggression to end. These attacks must cease before any prisoner exchange can take place.”

Al-Hayya added that Hamas remains ready for a ceasefire agreement but emphasized that Israel must demonstrate genuine willingness to proceed. “We are engaging with mediating countries to advance ceasefire negotiations. However, Netanyahu is hindering progress in these talks for political reasons,” he said.

Since the escalation of violence on October 7, 2023, indirect negotiations between the parties have continued, with countries like Qatar mediating ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Both the United States and Egypt have played supporting roles in these efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism domestically and from the international community for failing to secure a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. Analysts highlight those additional conditions introduced by Israel, particularly its insistence on maintaining control over the Egypt-Gaza border and the Philadelphi Corridor, have further complicated the negotiations.

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