Asia
How will the change of leadership in Vietnam affect foreign policy?
Observers say that despite the uncertainty in Hanoi following the death of long-serving leader Nguyen Phu Trong, China’s relations with Vietnam will remain largely stable.
Mr Trong, 80, who died last week after a long illness, was a prominent figure in Vietnam’s rapid economic growth and fight against corruption. He also spearheaded Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’, which struck a delicate balance in the US-China rivalry.
In a rare visit to the Vietnamese embassy in Beijing last Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of their ‘deep friendship’ and praised Trong’s ‘outstanding contribution’ to relations between the two countries and their ruling parties.
The Chinese Communist Party also issued a condolence message hours after Trong’s death was announced, describing him as ‘a good comrade, a good brother and a good friend’. China’s No 4 official, Wang Huning, is leading a delegation to Vietnam to attend Nguyen’s state funeral on Friday (today).
Hanoi stressed the importance of its relations with Beijing, pledging to Chinese Ambassador Pham Sao Mai to ‘stick to the strategic choice and priority of developing friendly cooperation with China’, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
Zhang Mingliang, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Xi’s embassy visit showed that Beijing was relatively satisfied with the development of bilateral relations during the Trong era.
“Compared to relations during the oil rig crisis in 2014 and [former US President Donald] Trump’s state visit to Vietnam in 2017, Sino-Vietnamese relations have improved significantly since Hanoi adopted the concept of ‘community of shared destiny’ at Beijing’s request last year,” Zhang told the South China Morning Post.
“Compared to the high tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea, Vietnam and China have managed to get along well without exaggerating their deep differences on regional issues,” he added.
Relations between the communist neighbours have been turbulent in recent decades, with clashes over the disputed Paracel Islands in the 1970s and a brief but bloody border war in 1979.
Zhang noted that relations also hit a low point during the 2014 diplomatic row over China’s placement of a deepwater oil rig near the Paracels, which was seen as a turning point in Hanoi’s relations with Washington.
“Under Trong’s rule, Vietnam has managed to establish at least a superficially friendly relationship with China. But at the same time, Vietnam’s relations with the US and Russia have reached unprecedented levels,” Zhang said.
“The purpose of all this is to keep China in check and ensure that Vietnam enjoys a favourable international environment and relatively stable relations with China, which are largely under Hanoi’s control. This may seem like an impossible task, but Trong’s Vietnam has managed to hedge its bets with the big powers,” he added.
Relations with China
Vietnam’s most influential leader since founding revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh, Trong became general secretary of the ruling party in 2011 and secured a precedent-setting third five-year term in 2021. Trong also served as Vietnam’s president from 2018 to 2020.
Amid speculation that his health was deteriorating, Trong visited Beijing in October 2022, his first overseas trip since suffering a stroke in 2019, and the first foreign leader to meet Xi after securing a third term.
In the past 10 months, despite his illness, Trong has hosted both Xi and US President Joe Biden in Hanoi, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. Hanoi has also elevated Japan, India, South Korea and Australia to its highest level of comprehensive strategic partners.
Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales in Australia, told the South China Morning Post that Trong will be remembered for his 2015 trips to the US and Japan, which laid the groundwork for closer ties with the West.
“Hanoi’s relations with Beijing will remain ‘stable and friendly’ because Vietnam will not abandon its foreign policy of ‘peace, cooperation and development’,” Thayer said.
“China plays a special role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. It is Vietnam’s first comprehensive strategic partner and the only major power to be called a comprehensive strategic cooperation partner,” he said.
Analysts also pointed to Trong’s personal bond with Xi and the ties between the two communist parties, which over the years have acted as a counterweight in the turbulent relationship between Hanoi and Beijing.
As Vietnam has expanded its diplomacy and improved its relations with the United States, I think Trong has been able to convince Beijing that Vietnam is truly neutral and independent and that improving relations with Washington would not be to Beijing’s detriment,” said Southeast Asia expert Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
“This was possible because of Trong’s resolute communist ideology. He saw the world the way Xi Jinping does,” he added.
Abuza also noted that China has inter-party channels with Vietnam to ensure a constant flow of communication between senior officials, something the United States does not have.
Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Trong and Xi had a close relationship because of their shared commitment to Marxism-Leninism.
“This helped stabilise bilateral relations, especially during periods of tension over maritime disputes in the South China Sea, Trong also had a very positive view of China and admired the Chinese Communist Party, but took a pragmatic approach with them on many sensitive issues,” the analyst told the South China Morning Post.
Although Trong’s potential successors, such as President To Lam, may not have the same bond with Xi, “I don’t think this will greatly affect Hanoi’s ability to maintain good relations with China because the inter-party bond remains strong,” Giang said.
He said the bamboo diplomacy approach ‘is working well’ and Trong’s successor is unlikely to change it or its core policies ‘to prove his legitimacy as the rightful heir’, at least in the medium term.
‘No drastic changes in foreign policy’
A day before his death, Trong’s duties were temporarily transferred to Lam. Lam, 66, who became head of state in May, was previously Vietnam’s minister of public security and oversaw the anti-corruption campaign. The so-called ‘furnace of fire’ campaign has led to the dismissal of 40 members of the party’s central committee and dozens of army and police generals since 2016.
The removal of six of the 18 members of the Politburo since December 2022, including three of Vietnam’s top five leaders since March, has raised concerns about uncertainty.
Despite the political turmoil, Abuza said he expects ‘absolutely no change’ in Vietnam’s foreign policy, saying Hanoi will remain ‘scrupulously neutral’ and has deep economic ties with both China and the US and its allies.
Asia
South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market
Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.
The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.
European countries increase purchases from South Korea
Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.
Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.
South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.
“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.
Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage
Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.
According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.
Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.
Asia
DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.
According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.
DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.
According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.
Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.
The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.
Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.
Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.
DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.
Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.
Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.
Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.
Asia
China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system
China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”
The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.
The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.
According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.
In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?
The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.
According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.
The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.
According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”
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