Connect with us

Diplomacy

IEA chief Fatih Birol declares the start of the global age of electricity

Published

on

The 19th IICEC Conference, organized by the Sabancı University Istanbul International Energy and Climate Center (IICEC), was held at the Sabancı Center under the title “The Present and Future of Energy Security in the World and Türkiye: Risks and Solutions in Critical Minerals.”

The conference, which was attended by Harici Media and where global and regional energy dynamics were discussed, featured opening speeches by the Republic of Türkiye Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Dr. Alparslan Bayraktar, Sabancı University Founding Chair of the Board of Trustees Güler Sabancı, and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol.

IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray shared the prominent findings of the “Türkiye Critical Energy Minerals Outlook 2025” report at the event, revealing the strategic importance of critical minerals in the energy transition through data.

“Geopolitics has descended on the sector like a dark cloud”

Taking the podium, IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol began his speech by drawing attention to the pressure of the current conjuncture on the energy sector before detailing the seven main headings affecting world energy markets.

Stating that energy and geopolitics have been intertwined throughout history, but that today’s picture differs from past crises, Birol defined the situation with the following expressions:

“I want to talk about a subject that, even if it is not directly related to energy, affects energy a lot these days. That is geopolitics coming over the world energy sector like a dark cloud. We have experienced oil crises, we have experienced natural gas crises, but there has never been a period where they all came together and geopolitics affected the energy sector this much. We see this simultaneously in oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.”

Emphasizing that a fundamental change is taking place in the world political system, that long-standing alliances are loosening or dissolving, while surprise new alliances are being born between countries, Birol said, “The dark and long shadow of geopolitics over energy makes itself felt to energy decision-makers every day. Energy security will be even more important in the coming years.”

The “American Five” effect on oil

Recalling that their forecasts for oil markets last year were confirmed, Birol stated that their predictions that supply would increase and prices would fall have come true. Birol said there are two main reasons for this relief in oil markets:

“First, demand growth is slowing down, especially due to China-related reasons. Second, and a very simple one; a massive amount of oil production is entering the market from what I call the ‘American Five’: the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. This large production coming from these non-OPEC countries and weak demand means prices go down.”

Pointing out that oil prices have regressed from the $80 levels to the $60 levels at a time when geopolitical tensions have peaked and conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Latin America continue, Birol evaluated: “If there are no major surprises, we may see oil markets at these levels in 2026 as well. Because there is a lot of oil in the market.”

Birol noted that the most critical factor determining the course of oil demand in the long term will be the speed of electrification in the transport sector, as transport alone represents 45% of global oil consumption.

“The natural gas market will turn into a buyer’s market”

Heralding that a much more comfortable period has been entered for consumers in natural gas markets, Birol announced that the amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas) that will enter the market in the next five years is equivalent to half of the gas that has entered the market in the last 40 years. Stating that a massive gas supply of 300 billion cubic meters, especially from the US, Qatar, and Canada, is on the way, Birol explained the changing market dynamics with these words:

“75% of this incoming gas is what we call ‘flexible’ gas, which has no destination restrictions. In other words, there is no obligation to go from country A to country B; whoever pays the money will get it. Natural gas markets were a seller’s market for many years; now they will turn into a buyer’s market and the hands of the buyers will be strengthened.”

“China is still insistent on coal”

Evaluating the coal markets, Birol stated that while consumption is falling rapidly in some countries, production continues in others.

Recalling that 65% of the world’s coal consumption stems from China alone, and the remaining 35% is the sum of all other countries, Birol said, “Coal actually means China. China is still insistent on this issue. There is a slight increase in coal in the US with the rise in domestic natural gas prices, but the decline continues in the rest of the world. We predict that this horizontal course will continue for a few more years.”

“The world is officially entering the age of electricity”

Devoting the most comprehensive part of his speech to the explosion in electricity demand, Birol declared that the world has entered the “age of electricity.”

Explaining that electricity demand, which grew twice as fast as total energy demand in the past 10 years, will grow six times faster than energy demand in the next 10 years, Birol detailed the three new triggers behind this massive increase:

Artificial intelligence and data centers:

“Artificial intelligence may be the most consequential technological invention humans have found so far. Artificial intelligence means data centers. A medium-sized data center consumes as much electricity as a city of 100,000 people. Data centers are popping up like mushrooms all over the world. Two things will determine the competition between countries: Who is ahead in technology and who has electricity?”

Stating that China is ahead of Europe and the US regarding electricity infrastructure, Birol explained the difference in the supply chain with this example: “If you order a transformer or a gas turbine in Europe or America today, they say ‘don’t come before 2030.’ In China, you can get it two weeks later.”

Air conditioning use:

Stating that the second major trigger is the use of air conditioning, Birol said that demand for air conditioning has exploded in countries with increasing income levels and due to the effect of climate change.

Birol said, “While 90% of homes in America and Japan have air conditioning; it is at the level of 5% in Nigeria and 20% in India and Indonesia. As welfare increases in these countries, the number of air conditioners will also increase and this will push up electricity demand.”

Electric vehicles and the transformation in automotive:

Stating that the automotive sector is experiencing a historical transformation, Birol emphasized that China has now risen to the position of the world’s number one automobile manufacturer. Stating that 5 out of every 10 vehicles produced in the world are manufactured in China, Birol drew attention to the increase in the market share of electric vehicles:

“Five years ago, 5 out of every 100 cars sold in the world were electric. This year the rate rose to 25%. The new market is no longer rich countries; it is developing countries such as Asia and Latin America. With this transformation, we may see some leading companies that have dominated the sector for years experiencing serious economic shocks.”

Birol stated that renewable energy will play the leading role in meeting this increasing electricity demand, and that more than 85% of the new power plants installed in the world in 2025 will consist of solar, wind, and other renewable sources.

“Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies”

Recalling that the IEA predicted three years ago that nuclear would return, and that they made this prediction despite the “wind blowing from the opposite direction” at that time, Birol announced that 2025 will be the year in which the all-time record for nuclear electricity generation will be broken.

To explain that the interest in nuclear has materialized, Birol gave three examples from his program in January:

“In the first week of January, I will go to Japan to discuss the opening of the power plants that were closed after Fukushima. The Japanese government wanted to get our views, especially for the commissioning of the 8 GW facility, which is the world’s largest nuclear power plant. The following week, I will go to Stockholm to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister and King; Sweden wants to increase its 40% nuclear share even further and build new reactors. Thirdly, I have been the Chairman of the Energy Board at the Davos World Economic Forum for 11 years, and for the first time we will organize a special nuclear session in Davos. This became the most popular session.”

Giving full support to Türkiye’s nuclear energy strategy, Birol said, “Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies. It is extremely important both in terms of meeting electricity demand, environmental emissions, and geopolitical weight.”

“There is a massive dominance of China in rare earth elements”

Stating that they established a critical minerals unit as an agency five years ago and allocated a significant part of their budget here, Birol stated that the IEA has a “good nose.” He emphasized that critical minerals are of vital importance not only for clean energy technologies but also for the defense industry, drones, and chips.

Stating that China is at least 10 years ahead of other countries in this field with both mining access and refining capacity, Birol revealed with the following data that the picture will not change in the short term despite the investments made by the Western world:

“China’s share in the global refining sector for rare earth elements is 92%. Even if all planned new projects in America, Canada, Australia, and Europe are implemented on time and in full, China’s share will only drop to 75% in 2035. So there is still a massive dominance. The refining sector is a dirty and difficult business; not everyone can easily establish it in their country.”

Recalling the export restriction introduced by China last April, Birol warned: “We have a saying in Turkish: ‘One misfortune is better than a thousand pieces of advice.’ That decision taken by China reminded everyone, especially the automotive sector, how serious this business is. A country that has such power behind it sits at the table much more comfortably than others.”

“Climate change is a worrying but temporary trend”

In the final part of his speech, Birol touched upon climate change, stating that 2025 is the second hottest year in the world, and the severity of extreme weather events such as forest fires, droughts, and floods has increased.

However, stating that the place of climate change on the agenda of world leaders has shifted downwards due to geopolitical tensions, Birol described this situation as a worrying but temporary trend.

Stating that he finds Türkiye’s candidacy for the COP31 presidency together with Australia “extremely appropriate,” Birol concluded his words as follows:

“I think that Türkiye hosting this organization is an important chance for our country and the world. My hope is that Türkiye will both bring climate change to the place it deserves on the world agenda and play a bridge role between developed and developing countries on financing. Türkiye has enormous resources in solar, wind, and geothermal; I believe that we will continue to take positive steps together with renewable energy and nuclear.”

Diplomacy

Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

Published

on

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

Published

on

The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

Published

on

The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey