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IEA chief Fatih Birol declares the start of the global age of electricity

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The 19th IICEC Conference, organized by the Sabancı University Istanbul International Energy and Climate Center (IICEC), was held at the Sabancı Center under the title “The Present and Future of Energy Security in the World and Türkiye: Risks and Solutions in Critical Minerals.”

The conference, which was attended by Harici Media and where global and regional energy dynamics were discussed, featured opening speeches by the Republic of Türkiye Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Dr. Alparslan Bayraktar, Sabancı University Founding Chair of the Board of Trustees Güler Sabancı, and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol.

IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray shared the prominent findings of the “Türkiye Critical Energy Minerals Outlook 2025” report at the event, revealing the strategic importance of critical minerals in the energy transition through data.

“Geopolitics has descended on the sector like a dark cloud”

Taking the podium, IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol began his speech by drawing attention to the pressure of the current conjuncture on the energy sector before detailing the seven main headings affecting world energy markets.

Stating that energy and geopolitics have been intertwined throughout history, but that today’s picture differs from past crises, Birol defined the situation with the following expressions:

“I want to talk about a subject that, even if it is not directly related to energy, affects energy a lot these days. That is geopolitics coming over the world energy sector like a dark cloud. We have experienced oil crises, we have experienced natural gas crises, but there has never been a period where they all came together and geopolitics affected the energy sector this much. We see this simultaneously in oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.”

Emphasizing that a fundamental change is taking place in the world political system, that long-standing alliances are loosening or dissolving, while surprise new alliances are being born between countries, Birol said, “The dark and long shadow of geopolitics over energy makes itself felt to energy decision-makers every day. Energy security will be even more important in the coming years.”

The “American Five” effect on oil

Recalling that their forecasts for oil markets last year were confirmed, Birol stated that their predictions that supply would increase and prices would fall have come true. Birol said there are two main reasons for this relief in oil markets:

“First, demand growth is slowing down, especially due to China-related reasons. Second, and a very simple one; a massive amount of oil production is entering the market from what I call the ‘American Five’: the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. This large production coming from these non-OPEC countries and weak demand means prices go down.”

Pointing out that oil prices have regressed from the $80 levels to the $60 levels at a time when geopolitical tensions have peaked and conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Latin America continue, Birol evaluated: “If there are no major surprises, we may see oil markets at these levels in 2026 as well. Because there is a lot of oil in the market.”

Birol noted that the most critical factor determining the course of oil demand in the long term will be the speed of electrification in the transport sector, as transport alone represents 45% of global oil consumption.

“The natural gas market will turn into a buyer’s market”

Heralding that a much more comfortable period has been entered for consumers in natural gas markets, Birol announced that the amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas) that will enter the market in the next five years is equivalent to half of the gas that has entered the market in the last 40 years. Stating that a massive gas supply of 300 billion cubic meters, especially from the US, Qatar, and Canada, is on the way, Birol explained the changing market dynamics with these words:

“75% of this incoming gas is what we call ‘flexible’ gas, which has no destination restrictions. In other words, there is no obligation to go from country A to country B; whoever pays the money will get it. Natural gas markets were a seller’s market for many years; now they will turn into a buyer’s market and the hands of the buyers will be strengthened.”

“China is still insistent on coal”

Evaluating the coal markets, Birol stated that while consumption is falling rapidly in some countries, production continues in others.

Recalling that 65% of the world’s coal consumption stems from China alone, and the remaining 35% is the sum of all other countries, Birol said, “Coal actually means China. China is still insistent on this issue. There is a slight increase in coal in the US with the rise in domestic natural gas prices, but the decline continues in the rest of the world. We predict that this horizontal course will continue for a few more years.”

“The world is officially entering the age of electricity”

Devoting the most comprehensive part of his speech to the explosion in electricity demand, Birol declared that the world has entered the “age of electricity.”

Explaining that electricity demand, which grew twice as fast as total energy demand in the past 10 years, will grow six times faster than energy demand in the next 10 years, Birol detailed the three new triggers behind this massive increase:

Artificial intelligence and data centers:

“Artificial intelligence may be the most consequential technological invention humans have found so far. Artificial intelligence means data centers. A medium-sized data center consumes as much electricity as a city of 100,000 people. Data centers are popping up like mushrooms all over the world. Two things will determine the competition between countries: Who is ahead in technology and who has electricity?”

Stating that China is ahead of Europe and the US regarding electricity infrastructure, Birol explained the difference in the supply chain with this example: “If you order a transformer or a gas turbine in Europe or America today, they say ‘don’t come before 2030.’ In China, you can get it two weeks later.”

Air conditioning use:

Stating that the second major trigger is the use of air conditioning, Birol said that demand for air conditioning has exploded in countries with increasing income levels and due to the effect of climate change.

Birol said, “While 90% of homes in America and Japan have air conditioning; it is at the level of 5% in Nigeria and 20% in India and Indonesia. As welfare increases in these countries, the number of air conditioners will also increase and this will push up electricity demand.”

Electric vehicles and the transformation in automotive:

Stating that the automotive sector is experiencing a historical transformation, Birol emphasized that China has now risen to the position of the world’s number one automobile manufacturer. Stating that 5 out of every 10 vehicles produced in the world are manufactured in China, Birol drew attention to the increase in the market share of electric vehicles:

“Five years ago, 5 out of every 100 cars sold in the world were electric. This year the rate rose to 25%. The new market is no longer rich countries; it is developing countries such as Asia and Latin America. With this transformation, we may see some leading companies that have dominated the sector for years experiencing serious economic shocks.”

Birol stated that renewable energy will play the leading role in meeting this increasing electricity demand, and that more than 85% of the new power plants installed in the world in 2025 will consist of solar, wind, and other renewable sources.

“Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies”

Recalling that the IEA predicted three years ago that nuclear would return, and that they made this prediction despite the “wind blowing from the opposite direction” at that time, Birol announced that 2025 will be the year in which the all-time record for nuclear electricity generation will be broken.

To explain that the interest in nuclear has materialized, Birol gave three examples from his program in January:

“In the first week of January, I will go to Japan to discuss the opening of the power plants that were closed after Fukushima. The Japanese government wanted to get our views, especially for the commissioning of the 8 GW facility, which is the world’s largest nuclear power plant. The following week, I will go to Stockholm to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister and King; Sweden wants to increase its 40% nuclear share even further and build new reactors. Thirdly, I have been the Chairman of the Energy Board at the Davos World Economic Forum for 11 years, and for the first time we will organize a special nuclear session in Davos. This became the most popular session.”

Giving full support to Türkiye’s nuclear energy strategy, Birol said, “Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies. It is extremely important both in terms of meeting electricity demand, environmental emissions, and geopolitical weight.”

“There is a massive dominance of China in rare earth elements”

Stating that they established a critical minerals unit as an agency five years ago and allocated a significant part of their budget here, Birol stated that the IEA has a “good nose.” He emphasized that critical minerals are of vital importance not only for clean energy technologies but also for the defense industry, drones, and chips.

Stating that China is at least 10 years ahead of other countries in this field with both mining access and refining capacity, Birol revealed with the following data that the picture will not change in the short term despite the investments made by the Western world:

“China’s share in the global refining sector for rare earth elements is 92%. Even if all planned new projects in America, Canada, Australia, and Europe are implemented on time and in full, China’s share will only drop to 75% in 2035. So there is still a massive dominance. The refining sector is a dirty and difficult business; not everyone can easily establish it in their country.”

Recalling the export restriction introduced by China last April, Birol warned: “We have a saying in Turkish: ‘One misfortune is better than a thousand pieces of advice.’ That decision taken by China reminded everyone, especially the automotive sector, how serious this business is. A country that has such power behind it sits at the table much more comfortably than others.”

“Climate change is a worrying but temporary trend”

In the final part of his speech, Birol touched upon climate change, stating that 2025 is the second hottest year in the world, and the severity of extreme weather events such as forest fires, droughts, and floods has increased.

However, stating that the place of climate change on the agenda of world leaders has shifted downwards due to geopolitical tensions, Birol described this situation as a worrying but temporary trend.

Stating that he finds Türkiye’s candidacy for the COP31 presidency together with Australia “extremely appropriate,” Birol concluded his words as follows:

“I think that Türkiye hosting this organization is an important chance for our country and the world. My hope is that Türkiye will both bring climate change to the place it deserves on the world agenda and play a bridge role between developed and developing countries on financing. Türkiye has enormous resources in solar, wind, and geothermal; I believe that we will continue to take positive steps together with renewable energy and nuclear.”

Diplomacy

Iran rejects Turkish foreign minister’s comparison of regional policy to Israel

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Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei strongly criticized Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent statements comparing Iran’s regional actions to those of Israel, calling the comparison “astonishing and incorrect” during his weekly press conference.

In a comprehensive briefing on Monday, Baghaei addressed a wide range of foreign policy developments and regional security matters, including relations with Türkiye, the current state of diplomatic understandings with the United States, and Iran’s nuclear program.

“Hakan Fidan’s comparison is astonishing and incorrect”

When asked about Fidan’s assertions regarding Iran and his comparison of Iranian actions to those of the Israeli government, Baghaei sharply rejected the assessment.

“It is astonishing that a figure of Mr. Fidan’s standing would make such an unwarranted comparison,” Baghaei said. “He knows very well that the Israeli regime is expansionist by nature and seeks to harm the entire region, including Türkiye. How they arrived at such a bizarre comparison remains a major question for us.”

Baghaei asserted that Iran maintains no proxy forces in the region and argued that Israel represents the only true proxy entity in the Middle East. “We ask our Turkish friends to align their analyses with existing realities and to avoid repeating analyses that serve the exploitative interests of the Israeli regime,” the spokesperson added.

The remarks follow recent statements by Fidan, in which he addressed the ongoing conflict involving Hezbollah and Hamas, describing them as Iranian proxies in the region.

“We need to return to a situation where the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every nation is fully recognized,” Fidan had stated. “Iran has long claimed to pursue a preventive security policy by maintaining proxies in these countries, just as the Israelis occupy the rest of the region as part of their own security.”

“The Islamabad Agreement has entered a crisis phase”

Responding to a question regarding the status of the Islamabad Agreement, Baghaei stated: “There is no doubt that this agreement has entered a crisis phase.”

While emphasizing that Iran approaches all negotiations with seriousness and precision, and fulfills its commitments in good faith once an agreement is reached, Baghaei accused the opposing party of failing to honor its pledges.

“They were so eager to breach the agreement that they did not even allow the one-month period specified in Article 5 regarding the Strait of Hormuz to run its course. They began backsliding from the very first days,” Baghaei said. “Looking at the 14 articles of the memorandum of understanding, the Americans dismantled different components of the agreement within this short timeframe. We have maintained from the beginning that it is a matter of ‘commitment for commitment.’ As long as the other party fulfills its obligations, we will remain committed to ours.”

“We reject the IAEA’s request to access damaged facilities”

Asked about the request by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi for inspectors to return to Iran and visit damaged nuclear facilities, Baghaei delivered a flat rejection, stating that the request would not be granted.

Addressing separate reports regarding satellite imagery of nuclear facility reconstruction, Baghaei noted that he had not yet seen the satellite images in question and therefore declined to comment.

“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be threatened by the US”

Commenting on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and allegations that the United States is providing military escorts to 20 vessels, Baghaei reiterated Iran’s opposition to the presence of extra-regional forces.

Baghaei stated that regional security can only be achieved without foreign intervention, through consultative mechanisms among regional countries. He added that the US military presence is a source of insecurity in the region.

“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become an area of threat against Iran’s interests,” the spokesperson said. “We made genuine efforts to ensure navigation security, but the US was the party that undermined the process. The claims regarding vessel escorts demonstrate that the US is continuing its interventionist and aggressive policies in the region.”

Regarding the interpretation of Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding, Baghaei stated that the text is clear and leaves no room for interpretation.

He noted that provisions designating the management of the strait to Iran, in consultation with Oman, were included in the text to protect Iranian interests. He added that the US is attempting to establish parallel routes by provoking regional countries, which he warned causes environmental issues and jeopardizes maritime safety.

“The declaration by the three European countries is null and void”

Referring to a joint declaration issued by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Baghaei dismissed the statement as entirely invalid, accusing the European nations of attempting to distort facts.

He stated that the actions of the US and Israel are the source of instability and harm in both the region and the wider world, adding that such declarations do not contribute to any resolution.

Addressing claims made by the French Foreign Minister, Baghaei added that French officials should cease attempting to assume roles in matters that do not concern them.

“We have not conditioned cooperation with Afghanistan on recognition”

Baghaei provided details on a recent visit to Afghanistan by Alireza Jalalzadeh, the Deputy Foreign Minister for Consular Affairs, noting that discussions were conducted within the framework of consular affairs and people-to-people relations.

Highlighting that Iran shares a border of more than 900 kilometers with Afghanistan, hosts a large number of Afghan migrants, and maintains extensive commercial ties, Baghaei said: “We have not conditioned the official recognition of the Afghan administration on the cooperation necessary for the interests of both countries. The recognition process is a legal procedure, and a decision on this matter will be made when the time comes.”

“We do not make decisions on behalf of Lebanon”

Rejecting allegations that Iran is interfering in the internal affairs of Lebanon and Oman, Baghaei said: “We do not make decisions on behalf of anyone. The inclusion of Lebanon’s name in the memorandum of understanding demonstrates Iran’s sense of responsibility toward maintaining international security. In the first article of the text, we emphasized the need to end the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. This is not a matter of decision-making; the decision belongs to the Lebanese people.”

Addressing international pressure regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, Baghaei stated that the Lebanese people are best positioned to understand the value of the resistance’s weapons in protecting their sovereignty, and that any decision on the matter rests solely with them.

“Trump’s claims are false”

Baghaei denied claims made by former US President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s conduct during nuclear negotiations.

“Lying has become a behavioral pattern and an addiction for the US,” Baghaei said. “The talks held in Muscat on Saturday focused exclusively on the Strait of Hormuz. We attempted to establish a mechanism to ensure the safe passage of vessels through Omani mediation, but this outcome was not reached due to pressure exerted on Oman.”

He added that alleged assassination plots against Trump were never a subject of negotiation.

“The death of Lindsey Graham will not grieve free people”

When asked to comment on the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, Baghaei remarked:

“The Angel of Death is just. One cannot expect the peoples of the region to mourn a figure who built his life philosophy on aggression, war, and terror, and who boasted of being the greatest supporter of genocide. The death of this aggressive senator will not grieve the heart of any free person.”

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NATO leadership sees no evidence of Russian preparations for attack on Baltics by 2030

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The military and political leadership of NATO sees no evidence that Russia is preparing for a potential attack on the Baltic states by 2030, according to a report by The Times, citing a senior alliance source.

“I see absolutely no sign that Russia is interested in engaging in any conflict with NATO,” the high-ranking source told the newspaper. The official added that they had no intention of speculating on the date of a potential conflict, as some other officials within the alliance have done.

The Times noted that rhetoric suggesting an open military conflict between NATO and Russia could begin in 2030 is primarily being used to mobilize the resources of the alliance’s member states. The report stated that this framing aims to encourage members to meet a defense spending target set at 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. Speaking to the newspaper on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), said that allies currently have a “window of opportunity” to build up the capabilities already agreed upon.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has previously stated that the militarization of Europe would require Russia to take additional measures to guarantee its national security.

As the implications of these developments continue to play out in the military arena, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced on July 9 that NATO leadership has converted the mandate of the Baltic air policing mission from air patrol to a combat footing.

The day before this decision, leaders attending the NATO summit in Ankara pointed to the “long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security and stability” in a joint declaration.

NATO has repeatedly expressed concerns over a potential conflict with Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged member states not to be “naive” about threats coming from Russia and to increase their defense spending. Similarly, the commander of the German Army, Christian Freuding, asserted on June 12 that his country must “be ready for a Russian attack” by 2029 or sooner, stating, “We must be ready for war.”

In contrast, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko claimed in a June 22 interview with the Izvestia newspaper that NATO and the European Union are preparing for a military conflict with Russia on the horizon of 2030. Grushko noted that from a military perspective, there is now little difference between NATO and the EU regarding aggressive ambitions toward Moscow, and that their main objective is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

The Moscow administration has repeatedly emphasized that it has no intention of attacking Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that there are no geopolitical, economic, or military reasons to fight the alliance. Nevertheless, Putin has also stated that “all NATO countries are virtually at war with Russia.”

Last year, representatives of NATO countries approved a declaration agreeing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Under this target, 3.5% of spending is projected to go directly to the military budget, while 1.5% is to be allocated indirectly to defense through cybersecurity and the modernization of highways.

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Zelenskyy announces sweeping Ukrainian cabinet shakeup as Prime Minister Sviridenko resigns

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a sweeping structural overhaul of the government, confirming that a new prime minister will soon take office.

Following the announcement, the Ukrainian leader held a series of meetings over a two-and-a-half-hour period with potential candidates positioned to succeed Yulia Sviridenko as prime minister.

“Political strategy is changing”

Writing on his Telegram channel, Zelenskyy announced that the structure of the cabinet of ministers will change and that Sviridenko, who is stepping down from her post, will be assigned to a new role.

The Ukrainian president stated that the country is renewing its political strategy. Under the new approach, specific individuals with extensive experience will be put in charge of each priority foreign policy direction to implement agreements reached at the leadership level and to meet the expectations of the Ukrainian people.

Approximately one hour after Zelenskyy’s statement, Sviridenko confirmed her departure from the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine via a message on social media.

Thanking the president for his high valuation of her work, Sviridenko stated that she and Zelenskyy had discussed future steps.

Sviridenko began her career in the Ukrainian government in 2019 as Deputy Minister of Economy. Between 2020 and 2021, she served as deputy head of the presidential office, during which time she participated in negotiations regarding the Donbas.

In November 2021, she assumed control of economic management as First Deputy Prime Minister. In the spring of 2025, she signed a resource agreement with the US on behalf of Ukraine.

Zelenksyy proposed that Sviridenko lead the government in July 2025, and the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, approved her candidacy with 262 votes in a session held on July 17, 2025.

Prior to Sviridenko, Denys Shmyhal had led the cabinet since March 2020. He currently serves as the Minister of Energy.

Priority targets of the new cabinet established

Zelenskyy outlined the primary areas of focus for the renewed government, listing relations with the US—specifically licensing agreements for the production of Patriot systems and security cooperation—as top priorities.

Other core objectives include the European anti-ballistic missile project, the European Union accession process, relations with neighboring states—particularly Poland and Hungary—cooperation with the Middle East, the Gulf countries, and China, as well as relations with international organizations.

The Ukrainian leader also stressed the need to strengthen operations along the front lines and border regions, increase weapons supplies, complete winter preparations, accelerate the transformation of state-owned enterprises, and implement agreements reached with partners regarding the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Who could succeed Sviridenko as prime minister?

The last major reshuffle in the Ukrainian government took place a year ago, with Sviridenko assuming the premiership in July 2025.

Under Ukrainian law, the candidate for prime minister must be proposed by the majority coalition in the Verkhovna Rada.

Once appointed, the prime minister submits the majority of the cabinet members to parliament for approval.

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously stated that the only legitimate power in Ukraine is the Verkhovna Rada. According to Putin’s assessment, the only authority qualified to participate in peace talks is the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, asserting that Zelenskyy lacks legitimacy and therefore has no authority to sign any document.

According to a report by the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, potential candidates being considered for the premiership include:

  • Sergiy Koretskyy, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz and Director of Ukrnafta
  • Denys Shmyhal, Minister of Energy
  • Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Defense
  • Ihor Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv

Zelenskyy announced that he met with all of these officials, as well as Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, during the day.

Sources familiar with the matter who spoke to RBC-Ukraine stated that the president’s decision to renew the government came as a surprise to many. The sources informing the publication also put forward Koretskyy’s name for the premiership.

Sources speaking to Bloomberg also pointed to Koretskyy alongside Shmyhal. The agency reported that both Koretskyy and Shmyhal possess extensive experience in the energy sector, which partially explains their candidacy to succeed Sviridenko.

Meanwhile, Verkhovna Rada Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak reported that the parliamentary vote on the prime minister’s resignation could take place on July 13 or 14.

Zheleznyak stated that following this vote, the entire government will function in an interim capacity, with Shmyhal temporarily leading the administration in his capacity as deputy prime minister.

According to information shared by Zheleznyak, Sviridenko will become Ukraine’s new ambassador to the US. The Financial Times also reported, citing two sources, that the outgoing prime minister will be appointed to this post.

Zelenskyy stated that he had offered Sviridenko the opportunity to head a new and important direction in relations with a key partner, though he did not share specific details regarding which country or organization this would involve.

Subsequently, a report by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, citing sources, stated that Olga Stefanishyna, who currently serves as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, wishes to end her diplomatic service due to personal reasons.

Stefanishyna has held the post for less than a year, with Zelenskyy having signed the decree for her appointment in August 2025.

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