The 19th IICEC Conference, organized by the Sabancı University Istanbul International Energy and Climate Center (IICEC), was held at the Sabancı Center under the title “The Present and Future of Energy Security in the World and Türkiye: Risks and Solutions in Critical Minerals.”

The conference, which was attended by Harici Media and where global and regional energy dynamics were discussed, featured opening speeches by the Republic of Türkiye Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Dr. Alparslan Bayraktar, Sabancı University Founding Chair of the Board of Trustees Güler Sabancı, and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol.

IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray shared the prominent findings of the “Türkiye Critical Energy Minerals Outlook 2025” report at the event, revealing the strategic importance of critical minerals in the energy transition through data.

“Geopolitics has descended on the sector like a dark cloud”

Taking the podium, IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol began his speech by drawing attention to the pressure of the current conjuncture on the energy sector before detailing the seven main headings affecting world energy markets.

Stating that energy and geopolitics have been intertwined throughout history, but that today’s picture differs from past crises, Birol defined the situation with the following expressions:

“I want to talk about a subject that, even if it is not directly related to energy, affects energy a lot these days. That is geopolitics coming over the world energy sector like a dark cloud. We have experienced oil crises, we have experienced natural gas crises, but there has never been a period where they all came together and geopolitics affected the energy sector this much. We see this simultaneously in oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.”

Emphasizing that a fundamental change is taking place in the world political system, that long-standing alliances are loosening or dissolving, while surprise new alliances are being born between countries, Birol said, “The dark and long shadow of geopolitics over energy makes itself felt to energy decision-makers every day. Energy security will be even more important in the coming years.”

The “American Five” effect on oil

Recalling that their forecasts for oil markets last year were confirmed, Birol stated that their predictions that supply would increase and prices would fall have come true. Birol said there are two main reasons for this relief in oil markets:

“First, demand growth is slowing down, especially due to China-related reasons. Second, and a very simple one; a massive amount of oil production is entering the market from what I call the ‘American Five’: the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. This large production coming from these non-OPEC countries and weak demand means prices go down.”

Pointing out that oil prices have regressed from the $80 levels to the $60 levels at a time when geopolitical tensions have peaked and conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Latin America continue, Birol evaluated: “If there are no major surprises, we may see oil markets at these levels in 2026 as well. Because there is a lot of oil in the market.”

Birol noted that the most critical factor determining the course of oil demand in the long term will be the speed of electrification in the transport sector, as transport alone represents 45% of global oil consumption.

“The natural gas market will turn into a buyer’s market”

Heralding that a much more comfortable period has been entered for consumers in natural gas markets, Birol announced that the amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas) that will enter the market in the next five years is equivalent to half of the gas that has entered the market in the last 40 years. Stating that a massive gas supply of 300 billion cubic meters, especially from the US, Qatar, and Canada, is on the way, Birol explained the changing market dynamics with these words:

“75% of this incoming gas is what we call ‘flexible’ gas, which has no destination restrictions. In other words, there is no obligation to go from country A to country B; whoever pays the money will get it. Natural gas markets were a seller’s market for many years; now they will turn into a buyer’s market and the hands of the buyers will be strengthened.”

“China is still insistent on coal”

Evaluating the coal markets, Birol stated that while consumption is falling rapidly in some countries, production continues in others.

Recalling that 65% of the world’s coal consumption stems from China alone, and the remaining 35% is the sum of all other countries, Birol said, “Coal actually means China. China is still insistent on this issue. There is a slight increase in coal in the US with the rise in domestic natural gas prices, but the decline continues in the rest of the world. We predict that this horizontal course will continue for a few more years.”

“The world is officially entering the age of electricity”

Devoting the most comprehensive part of his speech to the explosion in electricity demand, Birol declared that the world has entered the “age of electricity.”

Explaining that electricity demand, which grew twice as fast as total energy demand in the past 10 years, will grow six times faster than energy demand in the next 10 years, Birol detailed the three new triggers behind this massive increase:

Artificial intelligence and data centers:

“Artificial intelligence may be the most consequential technological invention humans have found so far. Artificial intelligence means data centers. A medium-sized data center consumes as much electricity as a city of 100,000 people. Data centers are popping up like mushrooms all over the world. Two things will determine the competition between countries: Who is ahead in technology and who has electricity?”

Stating that China is ahead of Europe and the US regarding electricity infrastructure, Birol explained the difference in the supply chain with this example: “If you order a transformer or a gas turbine in Europe or America today, they say ‘don’t come before 2030.’ In China, you can get it two weeks later.”

Air conditioning use:

Stating that the second major trigger is the use of air conditioning, Birol said that demand for air conditioning has exploded in countries with increasing income levels and due to the effect of climate change.

Birol said, “While 90% of homes in America and Japan have air conditioning; it is at the level of 5% in Nigeria and 20% in India and Indonesia. As welfare increases in these countries, the number of air conditioners will also increase and this will push up electricity demand.”

Electric vehicles and the transformation in automotive:

Stating that the automotive sector is experiencing a historical transformation, Birol emphasized that China has now risen to the position of the world’s number one automobile manufacturer. Stating that 5 out of every 10 vehicles produced in the world are manufactured in China, Birol drew attention to the increase in the market share of electric vehicles:

“Five years ago, 5 out of every 100 cars sold in the world were electric. This year the rate rose to 25%. The new market is no longer rich countries; it is developing countries such as Asia and Latin America. With this transformation, we may see some leading companies that have dominated the sector for years experiencing serious economic shocks.”

Birol stated that renewable energy will play the leading role in meeting this increasing electricity demand, and that more than 85% of the new power plants installed in the world in 2025 will consist of solar, wind, and other renewable sources.

“Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies”

Recalling that the IEA predicted three years ago that nuclear would return, and that they made this prediction despite the “wind blowing from the opposite direction” at that time, Birol announced that 2025 will be the year in which the all-time record for nuclear electricity generation will be broken.

To explain that the interest in nuclear has materialized, Birol gave three examples from his program in January:

“In the first week of January, I will go to Japan to discuss the opening of the power plants that were closed after Fukushima. The Japanese government wanted to get our views, especially for the commissioning of the 8 GW facility, which is the world’s largest nuclear power plant. The following week, I will go to Stockholm to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister and King; Sweden wants to increase its 40% nuclear share even further and build new reactors. Thirdly, I have been the Chairman of the Energy Board at the Davos World Economic Forum for 11 years, and for the first time we will organize a special nuclear session in Davos. This became the most popular session.”

Giving full support to Türkiye’s nuclear energy strategy, Birol said, “Nuclear is one of Türkiye’s indispensable technologies. It is extremely important both in terms of meeting electricity demand, environmental emissions, and geopolitical weight.”

“There is a massive dominance of China in rare earth elements”

Stating that they established a critical minerals unit as an agency five years ago and allocated a significant part of their budget here, Birol stated that the IEA has a “good nose.” He emphasized that critical minerals are of vital importance not only for clean energy technologies but also for the defense industry, drones, and chips.

Stating that China is at least 10 years ahead of other countries in this field with both mining access and refining capacity, Birol revealed with the following data that the picture will not change in the short term despite the investments made by the Western world:

“China’s share in the global refining sector for rare earth elements is 92%. Even if all planned new projects in America, Canada, Australia, and Europe are implemented on time and in full, China’s share will only drop to 75% in 2035. So there is still a massive dominance. The refining sector is a dirty and difficult business; not everyone can easily establish it in their country.”

Recalling the export restriction introduced by China last April, Birol warned: “We have a saying in Turkish: ‘One misfortune is better than a thousand pieces of advice.’ That decision taken by China reminded everyone, especially the automotive sector, how serious this business is. A country that has such power behind it sits at the table much more comfortably than others.”

“Climate change is a worrying but temporary trend”

In the final part of his speech, Birol touched upon climate change, stating that 2025 is the second hottest year in the world, and the severity of extreme weather events such as forest fires, droughts, and floods has increased.

However, stating that the place of climate change on the agenda of world leaders has shifted downwards due to geopolitical tensions, Birol described this situation as a worrying but temporary trend.

Stating that he finds Türkiye’s candidacy for the COP31 presidency together with Australia “extremely appropriate,” Birol concluded his words as follows:

“I think that Türkiye hosting this organization is an important chance for our country and the world. My hope is that Türkiye will both bring climate change to the place it deserves on the world agenda and play a bridge role between developed and developing countries on financing. Türkiye has enormous resources in solar, wind, and geothermal; I believe that we will continue to take positive steps together with renewable energy and nuclear.”