Diplomacy
International Peace Coalition warns 2026 may be an existential turning point for humanity
The International Peace Coalition (IPC), hosted by the Schiller Institute, convened its 135th meeting last Friday to address escalating global geopolitical tensions, military mobilization in Germany, and the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Schiller Institute, told participants that 2026 would serve as a critical juncture for strategic global stability.
In her opening remarks, Zepp-LaRouche evaluated the current landscape:
“If you thought 2025 was a turbulent year, fraught with danger and events people could hardly imagine possible, the new year suggests this trend will continue, with 2026 set to be a year of even more traumatic changes. The entire strategic situation and its many components are so strained that we must expect things to deviate from their current path and evolve into destructive developments.”
Drone attack on the Russian President
A primary focus of the meeting was the recent attempted strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence near Novgorod, which reportedly involved 91 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Highlighting the gravity of the incident, Zepp-LaRouche stated: “According to Russian military officials, all of these UAVs were neutralized, and no damage was sustained. However, the strategic implications of this event are incredibly high. Had President Putin been there and been killed, the world would likely have already spiraled into an open-ended world war.”
Zepp-LaRouche added that the Russian Ministry of Defense had analyzed the programming of the recovered drone debris and presented the evidence to the US military attaché in Moscow.
Missile threats in Germany: “A knife at Russia’s throat”
Wolfgang Effenberger, a German author and former military officer, focused on the dangers posed by the reactivation of the 56th Artillery Command in Wiesbaden, Germany, and the planned deployment of new missile systems across Europe.
Effenberger pointed to the connection between the development of “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missiles and the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
“The Dark Eagle hypersonic rocket began development in 2019, the same year the US withdrew from the INF Treaty,” Effenberger noted. “With a range of 2,800 to 3,500 kilometers, this weapon would have been prohibited under the treaty. These systems enable Germany to strike targets and command centers deep within Russia. This would effectively blind Russia and place it under immense pressure.”
Effenberger warned that such a scenario could force Russia into a preemptive strike. “Just before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin remarked that ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine would reach Moscow in just seven to eight minutes, describing it as a ‘knife held to the throat.’ The Dark Eagle makes this situation even worse.”
Reminding the coalition that the New START treaty is set to expire in February 2026, Effenberger concluded:
“The end of New START combined with the deployment of the Dark Eagle represents a fundamental breaking point in strategic stability. Without the limitations imposed by the agreement, both sides will likely develop significantly more weapon systems.”
“Dancing on the edge of a nuclear abyss”
Beto Almeida, a Brazilian journalist and co-founder of TeleSUR, characterized the global state of affairs as “dancing on the edge of a nuclear abyss.”
“We are dancing on the edge of a nuclear precipice without even realizing it,” Almeida said. “There are four distinct flashpoints: Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan, and Venezuela. Ukraine is the most explosive of them all.”
Addressing Donald Trump’s alleged reaction to the reports of the attack on Putin’s residence, Almeida shared the following account:
“Trump’s response to the call from Moscow explaining the attack was reportedly, ‘Thank God we didn’t give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.’ I was not there, but this is how the event was relayed. This is a highly significant indicator of what might be possible if a different approach were to prevail in Washington.”
Almeida also touched upon cooperation between China and Russia in Latin America and other regions, noting: “President Xi Jinping’s words are quite clear; the reunification of Taiwan with China is inevitable.”
The collapse of Mutual Assured Destruction
Dennis Small of the Schiller Institute argued that the Cold War-era doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD) is no longer a functional deterrent.
“Mutual Assured Destruction depends on a rival power responding to the threat of nuclear annihilation with at least a minimum level of logic,” Small evaluated. “That minimum logic no longer exists. Those on the NATO side do not seem to care and have openly stated they believe they can win a nuclear conflict. We are now beyond the point where MAD can function. All it will do now is accelerate our descent into a thermonuclear confrontation.”
Call for a new security architecture
At the conclusion of the meeting, Helga Zepp-LaRouche reiterated the necessity of a new security and development architecture as the only way out of the current crisis.
“Western elites are completely unwilling to face the fact that the current state of the world is entirely their own creation,” Zepp-LaRouche concluded. “If we cannot transcend geopolitics and shift our mindset to the idea of ‘humanity first,’ we will not survive. In the age of nuclear weapons, viewing war as a method of conflict resolution will lead us to extinction as a civilization.”
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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