Diplomacy
International Peace Coalition warns 2026 may be an existential turning point for humanity
The International Peace Coalition (IPC), hosted by the Schiller Institute, convened its 135th meeting last Friday to address escalating global geopolitical tensions, military mobilization in Germany, and the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Schiller Institute, told participants that 2026 would serve as a critical juncture for strategic global stability.
In her opening remarks, Zepp-LaRouche evaluated the current landscape:
“If you thought 2025 was a turbulent year, fraught with danger and events people could hardly imagine possible, the new year suggests this trend will continue, with 2026 set to be a year of even more traumatic changes. The entire strategic situation and its many components are so strained that we must expect things to deviate from their current path and evolve into destructive developments.”
Drone attack on the Russian President
A primary focus of the meeting was the recent attempted strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence near Novgorod, which reportedly involved 91 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Highlighting the gravity of the incident, Zepp-LaRouche stated: “According to Russian military officials, all of these UAVs were neutralized, and no damage was sustained. However, the strategic implications of this event are incredibly high. Had President Putin been there and been killed, the world would likely have already spiraled into an open-ended world war.”
Zepp-LaRouche added that the Russian Ministry of Defense had analyzed the programming of the recovered drone debris and presented the evidence to the US military attaché in Moscow.
Missile threats in Germany: “A knife at Russia’s throat”
Wolfgang Effenberger, a German author and former military officer, focused on the dangers posed by the reactivation of the 56th Artillery Command in Wiesbaden, Germany, and the planned deployment of new missile systems across Europe.
Effenberger pointed to the connection between the development of “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missiles and the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
“The Dark Eagle hypersonic rocket began development in 2019, the same year the US withdrew from the INF Treaty,” Effenberger noted. “With a range of 2,800 to 3,500 kilometers, this weapon would have been prohibited under the treaty. These systems enable Germany to strike targets and command centers deep within Russia. This would effectively blind Russia and place it under immense pressure.”
Effenberger warned that such a scenario could force Russia into a preemptive strike. “Just before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin remarked that ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine would reach Moscow in just seven to eight minutes, describing it as a ‘knife held to the throat.’ The Dark Eagle makes this situation even worse.”
Reminding the coalition that the New START treaty is set to expire in February 2026, Effenberger concluded:
“The end of New START combined with the deployment of the Dark Eagle represents a fundamental breaking point in strategic stability. Without the limitations imposed by the agreement, both sides will likely develop significantly more weapon systems.”
“Dancing on the edge of a nuclear abyss”
Beto Almeida, a Brazilian journalist and co-founder of TeleSUR, characterized the global state of affairs as “dancing on the edge of a nuclear abyss.”
“We are dancing on the edge of a nuclear precipice without even realizing it,” Almeida said. “There are four distinct flashpoints: Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan, and Venezuela. Ukraine is the most explosive of them all.”
Addressing Donald Trump’s alleged reaction to the reports of the attack on Putin’s residence, Almeida shared the following account:
“Trump’s response to the call from Moscow explaining the attack was reportedly, ‘Thank God we didn’t give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.’ I was not there, but this is how the event was relayed. This is a highly significant indicator of what might be possible if a different approach were to prevail in Washington.”
Almeida also touched upon cooperation between China and Russia in Latin America and other regions, noting: “President Xi Jinping’s words are quite clear; the reunification of Taiwan with China is inevitable.”
The collapse of Mutual Assured Destruction
Dennis Small of the Schiller Institute argued that the Cold War-era doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD) is no longer a functional deterrent.
“Mutual Assured Destruction depends on a rival power responding to the threat of nuclear annihilation with at least a minimum level of logic,” Small evaluated. “That minimum logic no longer exists. Those on the NATO side do not seem to care and have openly stated they believe they can win a nuclear conflict. We are now beyond the point where MAD can function. All it will do now is accelerate our descent into a thermonuclear confrontation.”
Call for a new security architecture
At the conclusion of the meeting, Helga Zepp-LaRouche reiterated the necessity of a new security and development architecture as the only way out of the current crisis.
“Western elites are completely unwilling to face the fact that the current state of the world is entirely their own creation,” Zepp-LaRouche concluded. “If we cannot transcend geopolitics and shift our mindset to the idea of ‘humanity first,’ we will not survive. In the age of nuclear weapons, viewing war as a method of conflict resolution will lead us to extinction as a civilization.”
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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