Diplomacy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces major leadership reshuffle in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered Kyrylo Budanov, the Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR), the position of Head of the Office of the President.
Accepting the offer, Budanov stated in his announcement regarding the appointment: “I continue to serve Ukraine. I view the role of the head of the Office of the President as another front of responsibility for the country. It is an honor and a responsibility for me to focus on critical issues of our state’s strategic security at a historical moment for Ukraine.”
Zelenskyy emphasized that in the current period, strategic security, the development of defense forces, and the management of the diplomatic process in negotiations are priorities.
Stating that the Office of the President will primarily deal with the implementation of these tasks, the Ukrainian leader said, “Kyrylo has specific experience in the specified directions and sufficient strength to achieve results.”
The Office of the President was previously managed by Andriy Yermak. Yermak resigned on November 28 in the shadow of a corruption scandal and searches conducted at his home.
Zelenskyy instructed the new office head, Budanov, to update and submit for approval the principles of Ukraine’s defense and development strategy.
Budanov will carry out this process in coordination with Rustem Umerov, the Head of the National Security and Defense Council, and the heads of other relevant institutions.
From intelligence to state administration: Budanov’s profile
The 40-year-old Kyrylo Budanov, who took over the leadership of Ukrainian military intelligence in 2020 and served in the agency for 13 years, holds the rank of lieutenant general.
Oleg Ivashchenko, the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, will be appointed to replace Budanov as the head of the GUR. Budanov has been involved in the conflicts in Donbas since 2014 and has been wounded several times.
Political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov described Budanov’s appointment as a “symbolic” political decision.
Stating that the decision ended a long period of uncertainty, Pastukhov evaluated: “This appointment clearly signals that the Ukrainian administration does not believe in any ‘peace’ scenario and is preparing for a ‘tooth-for-a-tooth war.’”
Pastukhov emphasized that Budanov represents the segment that views any agreement made on Putin’s terms as Ukraine’s surrender.
The expert also argued that this step is the first move of the election campaign, commenting: “Budanov and Zelenskyy are the two most important figures in Ukraine’s potential ‘transition of power.’ While the West is seen to be playing for [former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeriy] Zaluzhnyi, Zelenskyy played for Budanov with an opposite move, and this situation says a lot.”
‘Digital’ era in the Ministry of Defense: Fedorov proposal
Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed Mykhailo Fedorov, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, for the seat of the Ministry of Defense. If the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) approves the candidacy, Fedorov will replace Denys Shmyhal, who has been serving as the Minister of Defense since July 2025.
Justifying his choice, Zelenskyy emphasized that Fedorov is “deeply involved in drone line issues” and “works in a very result-oriented manner in the field of digitalization of public services and processes.”
Zelenskyy stated that Fedorov, together with soldiers, domestic weapon manufacturers, and Ukraine’s partners, could implement the necessary changes in the army and bring technological competence to the military.
In the event of his appointment, the 34-year-old politician will be Ukraine’s fourth and the country’s youngest defense minister since the start of Russia’s military intervention.
Zelenskyy noted that the Ministry of Defense gave good results last year, specifically that as of December, interceptor drone production exceeded one thousand units per day.
Denys Shmyhal being moved to the Ministry of Energy
Zelenskyy announced that Denys Shmyhal, who is expected to hand over his post, will “stay on the team” and has been offered to “manage another direction in state administration.” In this context, Zelenskyy proposed the appointment of Shmyhal as the Minister of Energy.
SBU Head Malyuk targeted: Is the architect of ‘Spider Web’ leaving?
The wave of duty changes occurring in Ukraine also covers the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the country’s key counter-intelligence agency.
According to sources from Politico and RBC-Ukraine, Zelenskyy plans to dismiss the 42-year-old SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk.
One source warned: “There are attempts to dismiss Malyuk, but nothing is finalized yet. Negotiations are ongoing. However, his departure from the SBU would seriously weaken Ukraine’s self-defense capacity.”
A possible dismissal decision must be approved by the Rada.
At a meeting with journalists, Zelenskyy referred to changes in military institutions, indirectly confirming the change by saying, “I appreciate everyone, but I will carry out the rotations I have decided on.”
The name of strategic operations
Malyuk, who has led the SBU since 2023, is known for managing high-profile assassinations and daring special operations inside Russia.
Among these, the “Spider Web” operation, carried out in 2025, stands out, in which Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles taking off from trucks hit strategic bombers at Russia’s protected airfields.
Malyuk’s name is also associated with “kinetic sanctions” against Russia’s “shadow” fleet and oil industry facilities.
A Ukrainian official evaluated: “Malyuk is the right name for the position, and the performance results of the security service prove this. It is he who transformed the SBU into an effective intelligence agency that carries out unique special operations and gives Ukraine strong cards at the negotiating table.”
According to Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a member of parliament from the Holos party, Zelenskyy wants to see Malyuk in a new role.
Sources speaking to Politico reported that the President offered Malyuk the leadership of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SVRU), previously managed by Oleg Ivashchenko, or a position in the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, headed by Rustem Umerov.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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