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Iran war triggers global oil shock as China pivots back to coal for energy security

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The global oil supply shock triggered by the war in Iran is providing a strategic tailwind to China’s coal sector, which had previously been reeling under the weight of chronic oversupply and the nation’s aggressive pivot toward renewable energy.

Largely insulated from external shocks due to massive domestic production, coal serves as China’s primary hedge against volatile petroleum markets. Furthermore, several Chinese producers possess the industrial capacity to convert coal into critical chemicals—such as methanol and urea—sectors where traditional feedstocks are seeing tightening supplies.

Zhang Changyan, CEO of state-controlled China Shenhua Energy, one of the world’s largest coal miners, noted on Thursday that elevated crude oil and natural gas prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have “stimulated a temporary surge in coal demand.”

Speaking at an online earnings briefing, Zhang detailed the two-fold impact of the crisis. “First, certain nations may increase the share of coal-fired power generation due to natural gas supply constraints or surging prices,” he said. “Second, rising raw material costs for petrochemicals improve the profitability of coal-based chemical industries, leading to higher coal consumption in the chemical sector.”

Shenhua recently unveiled plans in December to acquire a suite of companies from its majority shareholder, China Energy, for 133.6 billion yuan ($19.4 billion). Zhang stated that the production target for this year remains steady at 330.2 million metric tons, though he noted this figure would be reassessed once the acquisitions are finalized.

Li Wei, chairman of rival miner Yankuang Energy Group, emphasized the fuel’s indispensable role in national energy security. During a press conference in Hong Kong this week, Li observed that while the installed capacity of new energy sources has overtaken thermal power, the actual volume of electricity generated by thermal plants remains significantly higher. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, coal accounted for 51.4% of China’s total energy consumption last year, a 1.8 percentage point decline from the previous year.

“Given that China currently imports approximately 70% of its oil and nearly 50% of its natural gas, securing national energy security and mitigating risks related to the supply of essential chemical raw materials are matters of critical importance,” Li said.

Yankuang, a unit of state-owned Shandong Energy, aims to produce between 190 million and 194 million tons of coal this year. It also plans to output up to 11 million tons of chemical products, up from last year’s 9.77 million tons.

The industry’s expansion continues despite the broader green transition. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China brought 78 gigawatts of new coal power capacity online in 2025. An additional 291 GW is currently either permitted or under construction.

Until recently, the mining sector struggled with overcapacity amid tepid domestic demand. Utilization rates fell to 68.9% in the third quarter of last year, the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to government data. Yankuang’s net profit reflected this downturn, sliding 42% year-on-year to 8.5 billion yuan in 2025.

The landscape has since shifted, and investors have turned bullish on Chinese coal firms in anticipation of improved margins. Yankuang’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged by more than 50% so far this year, dramatically outperforming the broader Hang Seng Index, which has declined 2%. The Hong Kong exchange was closed Friday for a public holiday.

Policy support is also firming up. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, alongside other agencies, released an action plan on Friday to modernize the petrochemical sector through 2029. The directive urges local governments and enterprises to prioritize the upgrading of aging facilities in oil refining, ethylene production, and coal-to-methanol sectors.

Another state giant, China Coal Energy, is expanding its coal-to-olefin operations in regions such as Shanxi and Xinjiang, a company official said during a Wednesday earnings call. The firm is also conducting research into coal-to-liquid and coal-to-LNG technologies, though the official cautioned that coal-to-oil production currently faces thin margins and technological hurdles.

The long-term extent of this demand recovery remains uncertain. China maintains substantial petroleum reserves and is generally less dependent on Middle Eastern crude than its Asian neighbors, thanks in part to its existing reliance on domestic coal. Spot prices at Chinese ports remained relatively stable in March as heating demand began its seasonal taper following the winter months.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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