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Iran war triggers global oil shock as China pivots back to coal for energy security

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The global oil supply shock triggered by the war in Iran is providing a strategic tailwind to China’s coal sector, which had previously been reeling under the weight of chronic oversupply and the nation’s aggressive pivot toward renewable energy.

Largely insulated from external shocks due to massive domestic production, coal serves as China’s primary hedge against volatile petroleum markets. Furthermore, several Chinese producers possess the industrial capacity to convert coal into critical chemicals—such as methanol and urea—sectors where traditional feedstocks are seeing tightening supplies.

Zhang Changyan, CEO of state-controlled China Shenhua Energy, one of the world’s largest coal miners, noted on Thursday that elevated crude oil and natural gas prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have “stimulated a temporary surge in coal demand.”

Speaking at an online earnings briefing, Zhang detailed the two-fold impact of the crisis. “First, certain nations may increase the share of coal-fired power generation due to natural gas supply constraints or surging prices,” he said. “Second, rising raw material costs for petrochemicals improve the profitability of coal-based chemical industries, leading to higher coal consumption in the chemical sector.”

Shenhua recently unveiled plans in December to acquire a suite of companies from its majority shareholder, China Energy, for 133.6 billion yuan ($19.4 billion). Zhang stated that the production target for this year remains steady at 330.2 million metric tons, though he noted this figure would be reassessed once the acquisitions are finalized.

Li Wei, chairman of rival miner Yankuang Energy Group, emphasized the fuel’s indispensable role in national energy security. During a press conference in Hong Kong this week, Li observed that while the installed capacity of new energy sources has overtaken thermal power, the actual volume of electricity generated by thermal plants remains significantly higher. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, coal accounted for 51.4% of China’s total energy consumption last year, a 1.8 percentage point decline from the previous year.

“Given that China currently imports approximately 70% of its oil and nearly 50% of its natural gas, securing national energy security and mitigating risks related to the supply of essential chemical raw materials are matters of critical importance,” Li said.

Yankuang, a unit of state-owned Shandong Energy, aims to produce between 190 million and 194 million tons of coal this year. It also plans to output up to 11 million tons of chemical products, up from last year’s 9.77 million tons.

The industry’s expansion continues despite the broader green transition. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China brought 78 gigawatts of new coal power capacity online in 2025. An additional 291 GW is currently either permitted or under construction.

Until recently, the mining sector struggled with overcapacity amid tepid domestic demand. Utilization rates fell to 68.9% in the third quarter of last year, the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to government data. Yankuang’s net profit reflected this downturn, sliding 42% year-on-year to 8.5 billion yuan in 2025.

The landscape has since shifted, and investors have turned bullish on Chinese coal firms in anticipation of improved margins. Yankuang’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged by more than 50% so far this year, dramatically outperforming the broader Hang Seng Index, which has declined 2%. The Hong Kong exchange was closed Friday for a public holiday.

Policy support is also firming up. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, alongside other agencies, released an action plan on Friday to modernize the petrochemical sector through 2029. The directive urges local governments and enterprises to prioritize the upgrading of aging facilities in oil refining, ethylene production, and coal-to-methanol sectors.

Another state giant, China Coal Energy, is expanding its coal-to-olefin operations in regions such as Shanxi and Xinjiang, a company official said during a Wednesday earnings call. The firm is also conducting research into coal-to-liquid and coal-to-LNG technologies, though the official cautioned that coal-to-oil production currently faces thin margins and technological hurdles.

The long-term extent of this demand recovery remains uncertain. China maintains substantial petroleum reserves and is generally less dependent on Middle Eastern crude than its Asian neighbors, thanks in part to its existing reliance on domestic coal. Spot prices at Chinese ports remained relatively stable in March as heating demand began its seasonal taper following the winter months.

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South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market

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Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.

The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.

European countries increase purchases from South Korea

Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.

Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.

South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.

“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.

Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage

Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.

According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.

Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.

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DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation

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Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.

DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.

According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.

Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.

The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.

Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.

Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.

DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.

Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.

Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.

Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.

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China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system

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China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”

The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.

The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.

According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.

In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?

The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.

According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.

The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.

According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”

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