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Iran’s attack in Pakistan: Any message for Washington

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The unexpected attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the territory of Pakistan has raised questions about the hidden motives of this attack; An attack that can indicate deeper concerns.

Some reports from the recent visit of General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan to Washington indicates that the ground for a “complex deal” has been created between the United States of America and the Pakistani military.

Pakistan, whose economy has been fueled and improved by regional tensions for several decades, has long acted as a player to protect other interests in this region.

After the United States cut off financial aid to Pakistan in 2018 and the role of this country became less important for Washington, especially after the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. Islamabad’s economic and financial needs were also not met by other regional players, including China, so Pakistan faced serious political, security and economic challenges. It is struggling and many believe that the country is on the verge of economic collapse.

Secret deal is on the making

On September 17 of last year, the American Internet magazine “The Intercept” reported, citing two informed sources, that during Asim Munir’s visit to the United States, a “secret deal” was made, including the payment of 700-800 million dollars by the United States to Pakistan for “supplying Ammunition for Ukraine.”

This news has not yet been confirmed by official sources. But due to Pakistan’s closeness to the West, especially the United States, close cooperation between Islamabad and Washington is not unusual. However, Pakistan also has its regional considerations towards Russia.

Also, according to reports, the United States, with its influence on international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, has adjusted its positions to guarantee loans to Pakistan, in return for Pakistan agreeing to set up a “Shamsi” military base in its territory of Balochistan. It’s worth mentioning that this base is about 140 kilometers away from “Panjgur”, an area that was attacked by Iran.

US making efforts to take over Shamsi military base in Pakistan

Although a spokesperson of the US State Department said that Washington had no role in granting the IMF loan to Pakistan and that these negotiations were only between Pakistan and this organization and the US did not participate in it.

Another US media outlet, The New York Times had also reported in 2021 on the CIA’s efforts to take over “Shamsi” military base.

Pakistani newspaper (DAWN) also reported that US Deputy Defense Secretary David Helvey told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Pakistan had allowed the US to have military access to Afghanistan through its airspace.

It seems that the United States of America has long sought the reactivation of some bases inside Pakistan to achieve broader strategic goals, including intelligence gathering, but it is said that Imran Khan, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan had opposed this decision.

The United States pursues various goals by using the “Shamsi” base in Baluchistan such as monitoring “terrorist activities” in the region and Afghanistan. In this regard, it can be said that the cooperation between Pakistan and the United States of America regarding the intelligence and technical monitoring of the activities of the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) and the secession of the Baloch Taliban is a part of these goals. The activities of these groups have become a security challenge for Pakistan.

US, Pakistan, UK and UAE to stand against Iran

There is also a possibility that after the return of Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister of Pakistan to power who enjoys close ties with UK, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will raise Iran’s doubts about a “secret alliance” between the United States and Pakistan to “strengthen the information ring around Iran.”

Syed Asim Munir, the chief of Pakistan’s Army met with General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of joint staff of Iran’s armed force during his visit to Tehran last year.

Iran’s simultaneous attack on Syria, Iraq and Pakistan may be a reflection of the concerns of this country as a whole.

The activity of opponents of the Iranian government has created problems for this country. According to Iranian officials, the attack on Pakistan was aimed at countering Jaish al-Adl, firing missiles at Iraqi Kurdistan with the aim of destroying the Mossad spy base in Erbil, and attacking Idlib in northwestern Syria in response to the attack of the ISIS terrorist group in Kerman.

US under pressure to deal with Iran

Amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and Iran’s activities related to its nuclear program, the United States and its allies are becoming increasingly restless and the pressure on the Biden administration is increasing. On the eve of the presidential election of this country, Biden has been accused by his electoral rivals of appeasing Iran and ignoring terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, the politicians of the United States, UK, Israel and their allies present Iran as a supporter of movements that threaten the interests of the United States and its allies in the region and liken Iran to a “snake’s head” that must be dealt with.

Considering the mentioned concerns, Iran’s attack on Iraq, Syria and of course Pakistan can be considered as a “deterrent and warning.” To what extent Iran had predicted Pakistan’s reaction is a point worth pondering. But this act of attack inside Pakistan’s soil and near the Shamsi base can be considered important at least as a message to America.

Iran and Pakistan acting wisely to ease tensions

Now it should be seen whether the current disputes and confrontations can end here or it will intensify the attacks of the representative groups of the two countries inside each other’s territory. The complex geopolitical landscape is based on the complexities of regional dynamics and the delicate balance of power.

Just two days ago, gunmen killed nine Pakistani nationals in the southeastern border area of Iran. This comes from efforts by the two sides to mend ties after recent tit-for-tat attacks.

Pakistani ambassador to Iran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipi had expressed shock by “by horrifying killing” of nine Pakistanis in Saravan.

He called on the government of Iran to extend full cooperation in the matter.

Iranian media reported the attack on Sarvan in Sistan-Baluchestan province and identified the dead as foreign nationals.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Middle East

Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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Middle East

US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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