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Is Polexit imminent?

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Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Considering the magnitude of the crimes committed on the territory of Nazi-occupied Poland, The memory of World War II is still so vivid for Poland. After the war, Polish-German relations took shape in the shadow of the debates about the war era, as well as the changes that occurred in the early years after the end of the war.

The border issue was controversial in the last century. Originally based on Oder and Nysa Łużycka, the border was the construction of the Soviet Union. The German Democratic Republic (East Germany) guaranteed the immunity of Poland’s western border until 1950, but this was maintained until 1991.

The issue came up again after the fall of the Berlin Wall. In December 1991, the German parliament adopted regulations affirming the permanence and immunity of the border between the two countries.

The issue of war compensation to be paid by Germany to the Soviet Union and indirectly to Poland has been brought up again in recent years. Given the magnitude of the damage, the sum of the compensation was much lower than the estimated damage to Poland during the war and occupation.

As a matter of fact, Poland was the country that suffered the most from the destruction policy of the Nazis. Between 1939 and 1945, about 6 million Polish citizens died, and many cities were almost completely destroyed, especially Warsaw, the capital that was destroyed by the Nazis.

Today’s claims against Germany stand out as a manifestation of the unpaid costs.

The Compensation Issue

In recent months, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) have been seeking compensation from Germany for the Second War.

In an interview with Der Spiegel on 10 September, Morawiecki elaborated on the rationale: “6.2 trillion zlotys is not a fantastic amount. The budget of the entire Federal Republic of Germany, that is, the budget of the federal government, is almost the same amount as the budget of the states. Poland is the only country in the Second World War that suffered the most, but was not compensated. First, we address the Berlin government with a diplomatic note. […] We also believe that the analysis of the Germans that Poland withdrew from the claim for compensation in its 1953 agreement with East Germany was wrong. It was the Soviet Union that once forced Poland to do this. The Poles could not claim compensation from the socialists. Moscow forced its confidant in Warsaw, Bolesław Bierut, to reconcile, and the issue was never brought up to the Polish parliament. No instruments of ratification were submitted to the United Nations (UN). We do not recognize the agreement. Since half of the victims in Poland are citizens of Jewish origin, we would like to conduct the interviews in Berlin and invite Israeli representatives as well. At a later stage, it is possible to bring our claims to international courts.”

In July, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that many people in Poland suffer from “Stockholm syndrome” against Germany. Kaczynski, who met with voters in Gruetz, said: “Many Poles suffer from what is called Stockholm syndrome, the victim’s love for the murderer. We need to get rid of this. We have a lesson to learn. ”

Pointing out that Germany has not settled accounts with Warsaw, Kaczynski said the issue is not only about receiving compensation for crimes committed during the Second World War. Stating that hundreds of thousands of war criminals were not convicted in Germany after the war and many of them even held office, Kaczynski said, “We are also talking about moral compensation here.”

Reminding that Berlin paid compensation to 70 different countries after the war, the deputy prime minister said: “Mexico is an example. Even such countries which were not harmed at all, received a small amount of compensation. Italy got compensation, but we didn’t. This is not going to end this way. ”

Warsaw, or the right-wing PiS government, uses the issue of compensation as a trump in its geopolitical conflict with Germany. As a matter of fact, Germany recently appointed Bernd Freytag von Loringhoven’s son Arndt von Loringhoven, one of Adolf Hitler’s deputies, as ambassador to Poland.

What about Polexit?

The European Union, led by Germany, accuses Poland of “undermining the rule of law” on the grounds that it has had too much influence in the process of electing the judges of the Constitutional Court, and therefore the decisions taken by the court are not based on the law but on the political will of the government.

On 7 October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court issued a ruling that displeased Brussels. The court ruled that some of the EU’s laws contradict the Polish Constitution and said in the justified decision that the country’s EU membership and the agreements signed no longer mean that the highest legal power should be transferred to the EU courts.

Didier Reynders, EU Commissioner for Justice, said on the same day, “Brussels will use all means to ensure that EU law is respected in Poland. The principle that EU law comes before national law and the binding nature of the decisions taken by the EU judiciary are at the heart of the confederation of states. “

Warsaw, which does not want to lose EU funds at the moment, and Brussels, which witnessed Brexit, do not want Poland to leave the EU. However, Berlin and Brussels support former EU Commission President Donald Tusk in next year’s general elections to turn the situation in their favour.

In the months that followed, on the other hand, both the European Parliament and Warsaw pledged that payments would be made first, and that this was a process that is independent of judicial reform.

However, it was later confirmed that negotiations on cohesion funds between Warsaw and Brussels are ongoing. Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, told the PAP agency: “I can confirm that the Minister of Funds and Regional Policies, Grzegorz Puda, has promised that further programmes have been adopted and that Warsaw will ensure proper progress for the next programmes in accordance with the regulations. The negotiations are expected to be concluded within a few months.”

In addition, President Andrzej Duda was more cautious. In an interview with TVP Info, Duda said: “If these media reports are confirmed, it will be revealed that EU institutions are interfering with Polish politics and forcing Polish society to remove the country’s officials from their seats.”

Polish Chief Prosecutor Zbigniew Ziobro said more clearly,“Those responsible for blocking EU funds are the German politicians who gave them great support, including Obywatelska [Civil Platform] and Donald Tusk and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.”

Both the opposition and the European Commission are hinting that the funds will be awarded as soon as Donald Tusk and his team win the elections. In addition, the unofficial election campaign is already underway in the country, and Donald Tusk, supported by Berlin and Brussels, seems to have a strong hand for now.

Brexit Britain and Poland

Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Poland is currently leading the Three Seas Initiatives, which include Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Vladimir Kozin, an academician at the Russian think-tank institute’s Strategic Research Institute and also linked to intelligence, emphasizes that the United States and Great Britain are the main sponsors of the Three Seas project.

Since its departure from the EU, Britain has been offering a new political, economic and military alliance to include both Poland and Ukraine and to form an alternative to the EU.

Europe

EIB to unveil 15 billion euro tech initiative to scale European startups

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The European Investment Bank (EIB) will announce a €15 billion initiative today, in collaboration with EU capitals and private investors, aimed at supporting the growth of European technology companies.

For decades, startups on the continent have struggled to raise the large-scale funding rounds necessary to scale on this side of the Atlantic, frequently turning to US investors or relocating abroad as they expand.

“We are catching up. Now we need to accelerate,” EIB President Nadia Calviño said.

Under the existing European Tech Champions Initiative, the EIB had already pooled resources with six EU governments to establish funds that invest in high-growth companies across the EU.

Calviño described the initiative as “very successful,” noting that it has supported 12 European “unicorn” companies valued at over $1 billion, including the German artificial intelligence translation firm DeepL.

The bank is now expanding the program with a new phase nearly four times the size of the original.

Twenty-five EU governments, alongside private investors such as Santander and Danske Bank, are expected to participate in the program.

This initial €15 billion aims to mobilize up to €80 billion in total investment. Calviño stated that this estimate is based on the multiplier effects achieved under previous programs.

As part of these efforts, the EIB also aims to attract European pension funds, which manage immense pools of capital but have historically allocated fewer resources to technology investments compared to their US counterparts.

In addition to the new funding, Calviño noted that the EIB will create a platform providing a single point of access for existing European scale-up initiatives, including the European Commission’s Scaleup Europe Fund, France’s Tibi initiative, and Germany’s Win initiative.

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Germany to purchase US Tomahawk missiles to build own long-range strike capability

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Germany will purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States and deploy them on German territory, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Thursday.

The move marks a shift away from planned US deployments and toward Germany establishing its own long-range strike capability.

Merz told lawmakers that he finalized the agreement with the US government during the NATO summit in Ankara, adding that the talks held on Tuesday and Wednesday had exceeded his expectations.

“While we close a critical strategic gap in our defense, we are also working to develop our own European systems and deploy them in Europe,” the Chancellor said.

According to German government sources, Washington committed in a letter of intent signed on Tuesday to approve Germany’s acquisition of Tomahawk missiles and their land-based Typhon launchers in August.

The number of missiles and launchers Germany plans to purchase was not disclosed because the information is classified.

The planned acquisition appears aligned with US President Donald Trump’s pressure on European allies to cover their own security costs, such as by purchasing US weapons.

The fate of the Tomahawk procurement had become uncertain after Trump announced in May that he would reduce the US military presence in Germany.

That development was seen as a cancellation of a plan made under the previous administration to deploy a US battalion equipped with long-range Tomahawk missiles to Germany.

That original plan was designed as a temporary solution to serve as a strong deterrent against Russia while Europeans developed their own versions of such weapons.

Germany produces its own cruise missile, the Taurus, but its range of approximately 311 miles is three to five times shorter than that of the Tomahawk missiles.

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Europe

Apple loses EU court appeal over Digital Markets Act gatekeeper designation

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The General Court of the European Union has rejected Apple’s challenges against its “gatekeeper” status designated under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

With this ruling, the company’s designated status for the App Store and iOS remains valid, while its applications regarding iMessage were also rejected.

Apple had argued that the five separate App Stores it operates for the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Apple TV should be evaluated as distinct, individual services.

The court rejected this argument, ruling that these stores serve a common purpose of connecting developers and users, regardless of the specific device.

The court also dismissed Apple’s defense that the DMA’s interoperability obligations violate its fundamental rights.

However, it did not conduct a substantive assessment on the legality of this obligation, stating that a direct legal link could not be established between the regulation in question and the determination of “gatekeeper” status.

Following the ruling, Apple argued that the obligations under the DMA “exceed the boundaries of legality and proportionality.” The company asserted that the new rules jeopardize the work it has carried out for years to ensure user privacy and security.

Apple retains the right to appeal the decision, though a company spokesperson did not comment on whether there are plans to do so.

Apple previously declared that DMA rules prevented the launch of the updated version of Siri in Europe, resulting in European users being unable to benefit from the service.

In force in the European Union since 2024, the DMA covers a total of 22 services and products belonging to Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

The regulation obliges these companies to share certain data with competitors, provide access to user-generated data, and offer verification tools to advertising partners.

Additionally, it prohibits platforms from engaging in anti-competitive practices that favor their own products. Companies failing to comply with the rules face fines of up to 10% of their global turnover, which can rise to 20% in cases of repeated violations.

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