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Is Polexit imminent?

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Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Considering the magnitude of the crimes committed on the territory of Nazi-occupied Poland, The memory of World War II is still so vivid for Poland. After the war, Polish-German relations took shape in the shadow of the debates about the war era, as well as the changes that occurred in the early years after the end of the war.

The border issue was controversial in the last century. Originally based on Oder and Nysa Łużycka, the border was the construction of the Soviet Union. The German Democratic Republic (East Germany) guaranteed the immunity of Poland’s western border until 1950, but this was maintained until 1991.

The issue came up again after the fall of the Berlin Wall. In December 1991, the German parliament adopted regulations affirming the permanence and immunity of the border between the two countries.

The issue of war compensation to be paid by Germany to the Soviet Union and indirectly to Poland has been brought up again in recent years. Given the magnitude of the damage, the sum of the compensation was much lower than the estimated damage to Poland during the war and occupation.

As a matter of fact, Poland was the country that suffered the most from the destruction policy of the Nazis. Between 1939 and 1945, about 6 million Polish citizens died, and many cities were almost completely destroyed, especially Warsaw, the capital that was destroyed by the Nazis.

Today’s claims against Germany stand out as a manifestation of the unpaid costs.

The Compensation Issue

In recent months, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) have been seeking compensation from Germany for the Second War.

In an interview with Der Spiegel on 10 September, Morawiecki elaborated on the rationale: “6.2 trillion zlotys is not a fantastic amount. The budget of the entire Federal Republic of Germany, that is, the budget of the federal government, is almost the same amount as the budget of the states. Poland is the only country in the Second World War that suffered the most, but was not compensated. First, we address the Berlin government with a diplomatic note. […] We also believe that the analysis of the Germans that Poland withdrew from the claim for compensation in its 1953 agreement with East Germany was wrong. It was the Soviet Union that once forced Poland to do this. The Poles could not claim compensation from the socialists. Moscow forced its confidant in Warsaw, Bolesław Bierut, to reconcile, and the issue was never brought up to the Polish parliament. No instruments of ratification were submitted to the United Nations (UN). We do not recognize the agreement. Since half of the victims in Poland are citizens of Jewish origin, we would like to conduct the interviews in Berlin and invite Israeli representatives as well. At a later stage, it is possible to bring our claims to international courts.”

In July, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that many people in Poland suffer from “Stockholm syndrome” against Germany. Kaczynski, who met with voters in Gruetz, said: “Many Poles suffer from what is called Stockholm syndrome, the victim’s love for the murderer. We need to get rid of this. We have a lesson to learn. ”

Pointing out that Germany has not settled accounts with Warsaw, Kaczynski said the issue is not only about receiving compensation for crimes committed during the Second World War. Stating that hundreds of thousands of war criminals were not convicted in Germany after the war and many of them even held office, Kaczynski said, “We are also talking about moral compensation here.”

Reminding that Berlin paid compensation to 70 different countries after the war, the deputy prime minister said: “Mexico is an example. Even such countries which were not harmed at all, received a small amount of compensation. Italy got compensation, but we didn’t. This is not going to end this way. ”

Warsaw, or the right-wing PiS government, uses the issue of compensation as a trump in its geopolitical conflict with Germany. As a matter of fact, Germany recently appointed Bernd Freytag von Loringhoven’s son Arndt von Loringhoven, one of Adolf Hitler’s deputies, as ambassador to Poland.

What about Polexit?

The European Union, led by Germany, accuses Poland of “undermining the rule of law” on the grounds that it has had too much influence in the process of electing the judges of the Constitutional Court, and therefore the decisions taken by the court are not based on the law but on the political will of the government.

On 7 October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court issued a ruling that displeased Brussels. The court ruled that some of the EU’s laws contradict the Polish Constitution and said in the justified decision that the country’s EU membership and the agreements signed no longer mean that the highest legal power should be transferred to the EU courts.

Didier Reynders, EU Commissioner for Justice, said on the same day, “Brussels will use all means to ensure that EU law is respected in Poland. The principle that EU law comes before national law and the binding nature of the decisions taken by the EU judiciary are at the heart of the confederation of states. “

Warsaw, which does not want to lose EU funds at the moment, and Brussels, which witnessed Brexit, do not want Poland to leave the EU. However, Berlin and Brussels support former EU Commission President Donald Tusk in next year’s general elections to turn the situation in their favour.

In the months that followed, on the other hand, both the European Parliament and Warsaw pledged that payments would be made first, and that this was a process that is independent of judicial reform.

However, it was later confirmed that negotiations on cohesion funds between Warsaw and Brussels are ongoing. Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, told the PAP agency: “I can confirm that the Minister of Funds and Regional Policies, Grzegorz Puda, has promised that further programmes have been adopted and that Warsaw will ensure proper progress for the next programmes in accordance with the regulations. The negotiations are expected to be concluded within a few months.”

In addition, President Andrzej Duda was more cautious. In an interview with TVP Info, Duda said: “If these media reports are confirmed, it will be revealed that EU institutions are interfering with Polish politics and forcing Polish society to remove the country’s officials from their seats.”

Polish Chief Prosecutor Zbigniew Ziobro said more clearly,“Those responsible for blocking EU funds are the German politicians who gave them great support, including Obywatelska [Civil Platform] and Donald Tusk and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.”

Both the opposition and the European Commission are hinting that the funds will be awarded as soon as Donald Tusk and his team win the elections. In addition, the unofficial election campaign is already underway in the country, and Donald Tusk, supported by Berlin and Brussels, seems to have a strong hand for now.

Brexit Britain and Poland

Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Poland is currently leading the Three Seas Initiatives, which include Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Vladimir Kozin, an academician at the Russian think-tank institute’s Strategic Research Institute and also linked to intelligence, emphasizes that the United States and Great Britain are the main sponsors of the Three Seas project.

Since its departure from the EU, Britain has been offering a new political, economic and military alliance to include both Poland and Ukraine and to form an alternative to the EU.

Europe

Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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