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Israel anticipates hostage release amid ceasefire tensions

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meeting with defense officials, suggested that Israel was trying to pressure Hamas into releasing six hostages in the first phase. However, an Arab diplomat warned that expectations should not be set too high.

Hamas announced on Thursday that it was backing down from its suspension of the prisoner swap, which it said had been suspended because Israel had failed to honor the ceasefire, and would release three Israeli hostages on Saturday. As Israel reportedly pressed for the release of more hostages, a senior Arab official told The Times of Israel that Hamas was unlikely to deviate from the timetable set out in the deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz met with senior military and security officials on Thursday evening to discuss how Israel could further pressure Hamas to bring forward the hostage return process.

Israel had announced that it would resume hostilities if the hostages were not released and backed US President Donald Trump’s demand for the release of all hostages.

Hamas said it held talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo and was in contact with the Qatari prime minister. Hamas’ main demands in recent days have been for more tents and prefabricated houses, medical supplies, fuel, and debris removal equipment to be delivered to Gaza. Hamas said the mediators had promised to “remove all obstacles.”

Netanyahu’s office described reports that Israel would allow prefabricated houses and heavy construction equipment into Gaza as “fake news.” “No mobile homes or heavy equipment are entering Gaza, and there is no such coordination,” Prime Minister’s Office spokesman Omar Dostri said.

However, Egyptian media published images of lorries and bulldozers carrying temporary shelters at the Rafah crossing on the Gaza border. According to reports, these lorries will be inspected by Israel before entering Gaza.

Hamas spokesman Abdullatif al-Qanu confirmed to Associated Press by telephone that the three hostages would be released on Saturday.

Under the ceasefire, which went into effect last month, a total of 17 hostages are scheduled to be released in the first phase, nine of whom are believed to be alive. In recent weeks, Hamas has released 16 Israelis and five Thai hostages as part of the deal. Israel, for its part, has agreed to release about 2,000 Palestinian security prisoners, including hundreds of prisoners serving life sentences.

While the prisoner swap appeared to be back on track, a rocket attack on Thursday raised concerns that the sides could return to hostilities. The rocket reportedly landed in the Nusayrat area inside Gaza, killing a 14-year-old boy. Hamas-led police sources said the rocket was actually an unexploded Israeli munition that exploded while being transported.

The Israeli army said it had struck the source of the attack in the Burayj camp in central Gaza. Also on Wednesday, the army carried out a drone strike against Palestinians trying to retrieve a smuggled drone in Rafah, killing one person.

At the Israeli army’s Southern Command in Beersheba, Netanyahu held a meeting with senior security officials for more than four hours. The meeting was attended by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, and Southern Command Chief Yaron Finkelman.

Israeli officials had expected Hamas to announce today the names of the three hostages it planned to release on Saturday. According to Channel 12, Israel was also trying to pressure mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States to release the six hostages before their scheduled release date.

Israel is trying to speed up the process after the hostages released on Saturday appeared extremely weakened. The freed hostages claimed they had been subjected to torture, starvation, and inhumane conditions during captivity.

A senior Arab diplomat said that Hamas was not expected to release any more hostages than planned on Saturday or in the following days, adding: “After Hamas said it would not release any hostages, we persuaded it to release three hostages on Saturday. It would be too optimistic to expect more than that.”

The ceasefire was jeopardized on Monday when Hamas accused Israel of blocking the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and announced on Saturday that it would not release the hostages. However, Israel later sent a message saying that the agreement would continue if Hamas released the three hostages.

Government spokesman David Mencer announced that Hamas must release the three live hostages on Saturday.

The uncertainty over the future of the ceasefire led thousands of protesters to take to the streets in Israel. Protesters called on the government to honor the agreement and bring the hostages home.

Netanyahu’s office confirmed that Israel was not negotiating the second phase of the hostage deal. However, mediators have called on Israel to begin negotiations on the next phase.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Middle East

Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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