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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

Diplomacy

New tariff rules pose risk to US LNG market dominance

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According to a report by the Financial Times, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has warned the US government about new tariff rules.

API stated that tariffs applied to vessels built, owned, or operated by China could cost the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector $34 billion annually and threaten the country’s leadership in the global LNG market.

The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023.

According to sources familiar with the matter who told to the Financial Times, the US currently does not have enough ships capable of transporting LNG.

Furthermore, it was reported that shipyards in the country do not have sufficient capacity to build such tankers by the deadline set for 2029.

API expressed concern that this situation could lead to a sharp increase in ship chartering costs, stating that most ships are produced in China or other countries.

The US Department of Commerce announced on April 18 that tariffs would be applied to all vessels entering US ports.

The tariff amount will depend on the volume of cargo transported on each voyage.

Restrictions on LNG transportation by foreign vessels have been postponed for three years.

It was noted that the applied tariff will be $50 per net ton after six months and will increase by $30 per ton over the following three years.

This step is considered part of the trade war between the US and China.

In April, the two countries began applying reciprocal tariffs on all imports; a 145% tariff was imposed on imports from China, and a 125% tariff on imports from the US.

The Washington administration aims to correct trade imbalances and relocate production back to the US through tariffs.

Beijing, on the other hand, called on the US to lift the tariffs. The Reuters news agency stated that although China is the world’s largest LNG buyer, imports from the US constituted only 5% of the total supply in 2024.

The agency also reported that Beijing stopped purchasing LNG from the US in March.

Aaron Padilla, Vice President of Corporate Policy at API, commented, “We will continue to work with the US Department of Commerce and the US Department of Energy to support realistic and long-term policies that benefit consumers and strengthen America’s energy dominance.”

Industry representatives also called for the abandonment of tariffs on crude oil and petroleum product shipments to avoid disrupting the supply chain.

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North Korea confirms sending troops to Russia for the first time

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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has officially confirmed for the first time that it sent troops to support Russia in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), these soldiers served in Russia’s Kursk Oblast for several months, and the operation was successfully completed.

This step was taken within the framework of the comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries.

KCNA quoted a statement from the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

The statement said, “Our combat units, which participated in the operation to ‘liberate’ Kursk Oblast under the order of the DPRK State Chairman, fully displayed high combat spirit and military courage, showing mass heroism, unparalleled bravery, and self-sacrifice.”

The statement noted that the units “made a significant contribution to the destruction of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi forces and the ‘liberation’ of the territory of the Russian Federation.”

The agency added that units of the national armed forces participated in the operation in accordance with the order of “State Chairman” Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-un mentioned the names of the North Koreans who fought in Kursk Oblast and called for their memory to be preserved.

It was stated that a monument would be erected in Pyongyang in their honor and that support would be provided to their families.

The committee noted that this cooperation demonstrated “the highest level of combat friendship between Korea and Russia and the allied, fraternal relations between the countries.”

It was stated that the operation to “liberate” Kursk Oblast from the Ukrainian army had been completed.

Russia had officially confirmed the participation of soldiers from the DPRK in the conflicts in Kursk Oblast for the first time on April 26.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mariya Zakharova stated that the soldiers participated within the framework of the fourth article of the comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and the DPRK.

The DPRK and Russia ratified the comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement between the countries last November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un signed the agreement in June during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang.

According to Article 4 of the agreement, if one of the participants is subjected to an armed attack by another state and enters a state of war, the other participant shall immediately provide military and other assistance with all means at its disposal.

Furthermore, according to Article 8, the parties shall develop mechanisms to strengthen defense capabilities to prevent war.

Even before the agreement was ratified, the US Department of State had stated that allegedly 10,000 Korean soldiers had been deployed to Kursk Oblast.

The Kremlin had described the information that North Korean soldiers had been sent to Russia to participate in the conflict as contradictory.

Pyongyang, on the other hand, had stated that this was a “dirty maneuver” by the US and its allies.

At a press conference held at the end of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Putin stated that Russia’s relations with North Korea were a matter that only concerned Russia.

In January, the media wrote that the North Korean leader might visit Russia in the first half of this year.

Additionally, according to sources, the North Korean leader may hold talks with re-elected US President Donald Trump.

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US weighs options for restarting North Korea dialogue

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According to a senior US official and three sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Axios, the administration of US President Donald Trump is secretly holding discussions and consulting with outside experts to evaluate options for restarting dialogue with North Korea.

This development comes after Pyongyang has made concerning progress in its nuclear capabilities since the two dramatic but inconclusive summits between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

While no concrete steps have been taken yet, it is stated that Trump wants to reconnect with Kim—possibly in person—and his national security team is preparing for this scenario.

It is currently noted that North Korea is low on Trump’s priority list, but it is rare for the world’s newest nuclear power to remain off the international agenda for long.

The senior US official said, “We are bringing agencies together to understand where the North Koreans are today. A lot has changed in the last four years. We are evaluating, diagnosing, and discussing potential paths, including engagement.”

Andrew Yeo, a senior expert at the Brookings Institution, said that “closed-door discussions involving think tank experts, current and former US officials, indicate that the Trump administration is evaluating different scenarios for another Trump-Kim meeting.”

Yeo added that Trump’s “many positive statements” about Kim in the last six months show his interest in this path.

A former senior US official stated that the administration has done some “initial planning.” The official said they know that a “flowery letter” from Kim could be enough to grab Trump’s attention, and then “the race would be on.”

Behind the scenes, it is understood that the Swedish ambassador representing US interests in North Korea visited Washington last week to consult with US officials and experts.

A source familiar with the visit said that its primary purpose was to understand Washington’s general inclination regarding engagement with Pyongyang.

Officials from the US Department of State and the National Security Council are also reported to have participated in multiple roundtables on North Korea with outside experts.

One of the sources stated that a topic raised in these closed meetings was who the North Korean counterparts might be if talks were to begin.

Almost all North Korean officials involved in diplomacy with the US during the first Trump administration—including the two summits—appear to have been purged or forced into re-education.

Jenny Town, director of the Korea program at the Stimson Center, assessed, “The North Koreans do not appear to have appointed a new special representative for US diplomacy and have not shown interest in negotiations for a long time.”

Town added, “While their stance on negotiation prospects has been less negative recently, they haven’t said anything positive yet either.”

The former senior US official told Axios that Pyongyang’s willingness to engage would depend on the nature of the meeting.

The former official stated that past talks focused on denuclearization, and it is unlikely that Kim would take this idea seriously at this point.

It was emphasized that North Korea’s nuclear power status is enshrined in the country’s constitution and the Kim family narrative.

The former official stated that if the meeting were about arms control and recognition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, “they would always have these meetings.”

However, it was noted that this would greatly concern South Korea and Japan, which could pursue nuclear armament.

It is assessed that it will be difficult for Trump to pressure Kim as he did in his first term, given North Korea’s nuclear advancements and stronger diplomatic position.

Chinese pressure on Pyongyang played a critical role during the first Trump term, but it is known that Beijing is not interested in pressuring Kim again on Trump’s behalf.

Meanwhile, North Korea has deepened its ties with its powerful ally in Moscow, especially after sending troops to Ukraine.

The senior US official blamed the Biden administration for Kim’s nuclear advancements, stating, “We are in a much worse situation today,” but acknowledged that some progress also occurred during the Trump era.

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