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German states push defense industry for economic boost

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Some states in Germany are making intense efforts to expand the defense industry and rearmament to escape economic contraction.

For example, Baden-Württemberg wants to turn the state into a new industrial hub and is trying to become a “technology leader” in as many defense sectors as possible.

The Saarland government is preparing an “armament summit” and is meeting with leading arms manufacturers to establish new factories.

According to a recent study by the Munich-based ifo Institute, only five federal states achieved economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, and in three of these, the rise in the defense industry played a central role.

The hope for a new surge in defense is based on the fact that up to 1 trillion euros in additional spending on armaments will be made in Germany and the EU by 2030.

However, experts warn that it is uncertain whether industrial capacities and existing personnel will be sufficient to convert these sums into actual weapons production. For example, the benefits of taking over previously civilian factories and skilled labor from the weakening automotive industry are being emphasized.

The economic contribution of militarization

Current figures on the economic situation in Germany are giving new momentum to the move towards the defense industry.

According to a calculation published last week by the ifo Institute, only five of the 16 federal states recorded economic growth, albeit quite moderate, in the fourth quarter of 2024.

For three of these (Lower Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Schleswig-Holstein), the rise in the defense industry played a central role, the institute writes, stating that given the billions of euros expected to be invested in the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), the northern German industry is diverging from overall German development thanks to coastal naval shipyards and other armaments facilities.

The three states mentioned above are also located on Germany’s northern coasts.

Growth in these states contrasts with the decline in states where, for example, the automotive industry is traditionally strong (Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria) or where energy-intensive sectors like parts of the chemical industry hold a significant position (Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine-Westphalia).

Last week, Lower Saxony State Premier Stephan Weil of the SPD announced that his government would continue to focus on the defense industry and said, “You have to make sure you can do what is possible for your economic structure.”

State governments are engaging with defense companies

Meanwhile, the governments of other federal states have also announced that they are accelerating their efforts to promote defense companies.

At the beginning of March, Baden-Württemberg State Premier Winfried Kretschmann of the Green Party announced that he wanted to “get involved” in the rapid expansion of the defense industry across Europe, stating that the sector should become a new industrial focus in the state.

Kretschmann referred to Diehl Defence, based in Überlingen on Lake Constance, known for its IRIS-T air defense systems, which managed to increase its turnover by 50% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 1.5 billion euros.

The Green politician argued that the entire Baden-Württemberg defense industry should strive for “technological leadership” in the future.

Saarland, bordering Luxembourg and France, is now also clearly focusing on arms manufacturers. Last week, the state parliament adopted a motion submitted by the SPD that foresees making the state more attractive for the defense industry.

It was announced that SPD Economy Minister Jürgen Barke had sent invitations to leading companies in the sector, while SPD State Premier Anke Rehlinger was preparing an “armament summit.”

The AfD parliamentary group is also calling for a determined “door-to-door” approach within the sector.

Militarization of civilian production at full throttle

On the other hand, it is uncertain whether German industry can truly meet the targeted rapid growth in armaments.

One reason for this is the insufficient availability of industrial capacities. Defense companies have begun expanding their factories and building new facilities: For example, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger recently stated, “In Europe, we currently have ten factories whose size we are doubling or building entirely new ones.”

However, this expansion cannot be accelerated at the push of a button as desired. Experts say that German industry can handle “an increase in defense spending,” and if the increase is much higher than that, which is Berlin’s goal, capacities will have to be shifted from other defense-related sectors.

This shift has already begun. For example, the French-German tank manufacturer KNDS announced that it would take over a railway factory from the French company Alstom in Görlitz.

Rheinmetall is also considering buying the Volkswagen factory in Osnabrück. The same company also announced that its facilities in Neuss and Berlin, where vehicle parts for civilian use are currently produced, will be used for military equipment production in the future.

Number of workers in the defense sector is increasing

In the long term, securing the necessary personnel increase in the defense industry may also be difficult. The number of direct and indirect employees in the sector varies.

Klaus-Heiner Röhl, a defense expert at the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, estimates that final manufacturers like Rheinmetall, KNDS, TKMS [ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems], and Diehl currently have about 60,000 employees in Germany; when suppliers are included, this number rises to about 150,000.

The number of employees in the sector is already increasing significantly. For example, Rheinmetall reported having about 26,000 employees at the beginning of 2023; today it has 32,000 personnel and expects at least 40,000 by 2027.

Diehl Defence increased its employee count from just under 3,800 in 2023 to about 4,500 at the beginning of 2025. Hensoldt increased its employee count from less than 6,600 to 8,400 during the same period and plans to hire at least 1,000 more people this year.

Renk, a company producing armored gearboxes, had about 3,300 employees at the end of 2022; today it has 4,000.

Automobile manufacturers are becoming arms manufacturers

Just one year after the start of the Ukraine war, in March 2023, a “talent scout” pointed out that public acceptance of the defense sector was increasing, and interest among applicants was rising.

In addition, an expert from the job platform Indeed recently argued that the large defense spending planned in Berlin “increases employer attractiveness”; according to him, jobs in the arms industry are now considered crisis-resistant.

Defense companies have long been reporting record numbers of applications. Despite all this, insiders are skeptical. An expert from the recruitment consultancy Heinrich und Coll says that “hundreds of thousands of additional positions” will need to be filled and adds that not everyone who applies is suitable in terms of expertise.

Agreements reached by defense companies like Rheinmetall or Hensoldt with automotive companies and suppliers to hire personnel laid off by these companies may help, but it is acknowledged that even this may not completely solve the problem.

The issue of qualified immigrant workers

On the other hand, the personnel problem of the German arms industry has not yet been solved.

Citizens from countries such as Russia, China, Iran, Syria, and Afghanistan are not allowed to work in German defense companies due to their origins.

This situation excludes refugees as well as labor migrants from certain countries of origin who help fill the shortage of skilled workers and other laborers in other sectors in Germany.

For this reason, there is doubt as to whether the increase in development and production output in the sector can be managed with the existing personnel.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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