Asia
Japan’s births hit record low for 10th year as demographic crisis outpaces government forecasts
Japan’s demographic crisis accelerated to a historic velocity last year as the number of births fell for the 10th consecutive year, reaching a record low that threatens the structural integrity of the nation’s social security framework.
Data released Thursday by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed that births in 2025 declined 2.1% from the previous year to 705,809. This figure, which includes foreign nationals residing in Japan, represents the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1899 and marks a staggering 30% collapse in annual births over the last decade. While the pace of decline showed a marginal deceleration compared to the 5% annual drops witnessed between 2022 and 2024, the underlying trend remains systemic and severe.
In a rare glimmer of stabilization, marriage registrations rose 1.1% to 505,656 couples, surpassing the 500,000 threshold for the first time in three years. This marks the second consecutive year of growth in nuptials, suggesting a gradual recovery from the precipitous decline triggered by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The contraction of Japan’s youth population is outpacing government forecasts by 17 years. According to 2023 population projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), annual births—including those to foreign residents—were not expected to dip into the 700,000 range until 2042.
The IPSS had previously modeled a median scenario of 774,000 births for 2025, with a “low-projection” floor of 681,000. The actual data has landed dangerously close to the worst-case scenario. Experts suggest these models failed to account for the accelerating cultural shift toward remaining single or delaying marriage indefinitely. The 2023 projections relied on an optimistic post-pandemic “rebound effect,” assuming that couples who deferred marriage and childbirth during the height of the crisis would drive a surge in 2024 and 2025. That surge has failed to materialize at the scale required to reverse the decline.
The nation’s overall population shrinkage is also intensifying. The natural population decline—the gap between deaths and births—widened to 899,845 people, marking the 18th consecutive year of record-breaking contraction.
The rapid graying of society coupled with the birth dearth is poised to dismantle a social security system that relies on the contributions of the current workforce to fund the elderly. Current fiscal projections for pension solvency and long-term care costs are predicated on the IPSS median scenario; the reality of the lower birth rate renders those calculations obsolete.
According to a 2024 pension actuarial valuation by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, if Japan’s economic conditions mirror the stagnation of the past three decades, the “income replacement rate”—the ratio of pension benefits to the average net income of active workers—will fall by 10 percentage points to 50.4%.
However, should the birth rate remain at these suppressed levels, the replacement rate is projected to deteriorate further to 46.8% by fiscal 2065. This would breach the 50% “floor” mandated by the 2004 pension reform laws. With social security expenditures—encompassing pensions, healthcare, and nursing—expected to hit 140.7 trillion yen ($902 billion) in fiscal 2025, Tokyo faces mounting pressure to implement radical reforms, including benefit adjustments and the identification of alternative funding streams.
The dwindling number of children translates directly into a future labor shortage. This creates a “vicious cycle” where the insurance premium burden on the shrinking working generation increases, further depressing the disposable income of young adults and discouraging them from starting families. Japan is now under immense pressure to revise its contribution structure, potentially demanding higher payments from elderly citizens with significant assets or income to alleviate the strain on younger workers.
While the ministry is set to release the total fertility rate and birth data specifically for Japanese nationals in early June, the outlook remains clouded by socioeconomic barriers. Despite the stabilization of marriage rates, the rise of dual-income households has not translated into higher birth rates, as couples express growing anxiety over the feasibility of raising multiple children.
“The number of children per couple has been declining over the last decade,” said Shungo Koreeda, chief researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research. “We are now facing the ‘second child barrier.'”
Koreeda noted that for dual-income couples in their 20s through 40s, the estimated lifetime number of children remains stalled at approximately 1.5 as of 2022. He argued that because the burden of childcare continues to fall disproportionately on women—even as more women enter full-time employment—the logistical challenge of balancing career and home life makes raising two children feel nearly impossible for many.
Furthermore, in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the intensifying focus on elite education has driven the per-child cost of upbringing to new heights. Koreeda’s analysis indicates that the financial weight of a second or third child is becoming an insurmountable deterrent for middle-class families.
Data from the Japanese advertising giant Hakuhodo, which surveyed the values of single women aged 15 to 39, underscores this cultural shift. The study found that 35.4% of respondents “do not want to give birth,” while 20.2% “do not want to marry.”
Crucially, 78.5% of those surveyed agreed with the statement: “Even if I marry, I may not get pregnant or give birth,” a sentiment researchers attribute to deep-seated anxieties regarding the environment for child-rearing.
In response, the Japanese government unveiled an aggressive suite of countermeasures in 2023, earmarking an annual budget of 3.6 trillion yen to expand child allowances and paternity leave. While these measures are set for full implementation in the upcoming fiscal year starting in April, critics argue the policy focus remains too narrow, failing to address the growing segment of the population that has fundamentally opted out of traditional family structures.
Asia
South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market
Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.
The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.
European countries increase purchases from South Korea
Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.
Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.
South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.
“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.
Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage
Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.
According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.
Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.
Asia
DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.
According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.
DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.
According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.
Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.
The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.
Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.
Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.
DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.
Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.
Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.
Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.
Asia
China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system
China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”
The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.
The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.
According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.
In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?
The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.
According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.
The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.
According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”
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