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Japan’s births hit record low for 10th year as demographic crisis outpaces government forecasts

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Japan’s demographic crisis accelerated to a historic velocity last year as the number of births fell for the 10th consecutive year, reaching a record low that threatens the structural integrity of the nation’s social security framework.

Data released Thursday by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed that births in 2025 declined 2.1% from the previous year to 705,809. This figure, which includes foreign nationals residing in Japan, represents the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1899 and marks a staggering 30% collapse in annual births over the last decade. While the pace of decline showed a marginal deceleration compared to the 5% annual drops witnessed between 2022 and 2024, the underlying trend remains systemic and severe.

In a rare glimmer of stabilization, marriage registrations rose 1.1% to 505,656 couples, surpassing the 500,000 threshold for the first time in three years. This marks the second consecutive year of growth in nuptials, suggesting a gradual recovery from the precipitous decline triggered by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The contraction of Japan’s youth population is outpacing government forecasts by 17 years. According to 2023 population projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), annual births—including those to foreign residents—were not expected to dip into the 700,000 range until 2042.

The IPSS had previously modeled a median scenario of 774,000 births for 2025, with a “low-projection” floor of 681,000. The actual data has landed dangerously close to the worst-case scenario. Experts suggest these models failed to account for the accelerating cultural shift toward remaining single or delaying marriage indefinitely. The 2023 projections relied on an optimistic post-pandemic “rebound effect,” assuming that couples who deferred marriage and childbirth during the height of the crisis would drive a surge in 2024 and 2025. That surge has failed to materialize at the scale required to reverse the decline.

The nation’s overall population shrinkage is also intensifying. The natural population decline—the gap between deaths and births—widened to 899,845 people, marking the 18th consecutive year of record-breaking contraction.

The rapid graying of society coupled with the birth dearth is poised to dismantle a social security system that relies on the contributions of the current workforce to fund the elderly. Current fiscal projections for pension solvency and long-term care costs are predicated on the IPSS median scenario; the reality of the lower birth rate renders those calculations obsolete.

According to a 2024 pension actuarial valuation by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, if Japan’s economic conditions mirror the stagnation of the past three decades, the “income replacement rate”—the ratio of pension benefits to the average net income of active workers—will fall by 10 percentage points to 50.4%.

However, should the birth rate remain at these suppressed levels, the replacement rate is projected to deteriorate further to 46.8% by fiscal 2065. This would breach the 50% “floor” mandated by the 2004 pension reform laws. With social security expenditures—encompassing pensions, healthcare, and nursing—expected to hit 140.7 trillion yen ($902 billion) in fiscal 2025, Tokyo faces mounting pressure to implement radical reforms, including benefit adjustments and the identification of alternative funding streams.

The dwindling number of children translates directly into a future labor shortage. This creates a “vicious cycle” where the insurance premium burden on the shrinking working generation increases, further depressing the disposable income of young adults and discouraging them from starting families. Japan is now under immense pressure to revise its contribution structure, potentially demanding higher payments from elderly citizens with significant assets or income to alleviate the strain on younger workers.

While the ministry is set to release the total fertility rate and birth data specifically for Japanese nationals in early June, the outlook remains clouded by socioeconomic barriers. Despite the stabilization of marriage rates, the rise of dual-income households has not translated into higher birth rates, as couples express growing anxiety over the feasibility of raising multiple children.

“The number of children per couple has been declining over the last decade,” said Shungo Koreeda, chief researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research. “We are now facing the ‘second child barrier.'”

Koreeda noted that for dual-income couples in their 20s through 40s, the estimated lifetime number of children remains stalled at approximately 1.5 as of 2022. He argued that because the burden of childcare continues to fall disproportionately on women—even as more women enter full-time employment—the logistical challenge of balancing career and home life makes raising two children feel nearly impossible for many.

Furthermore, in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the intensifying focus on elite education has driven the per-child cost of upbringing to new heights. Koreeda’s analysis indicates that the financial weight of a second or third child is becoming an insurmountable deterrent for middle-class families.

Data from the Japanese advertising giant Hakuhodo, which surveyed the values of single women aged 15 to 39, underscores this cultural shift. The study found that 35.4% of respondents “do not want to give birth,” while 20.2% “do not want to marry.”

Crucially, 78.5% of those surveyed agreed with the statement: “Even if I marry, I may not get pregnant or give birth,” a sentiment researchers attribute to deep-seated anxieties regarding the environment for child-rearing.

In response, the Japanese government unveiled an aggressive suite of countermeasures in 2023, earmarking an annual budget of 3.6 trillion yen to expand child allowances and paternity leave. While these measures are set for full implementation in the upcoming fiscal year starting in April, critics argue the policy focus remains too narrow, failing to address the growing segment of the population that has fundamentally opted out of traditional family structures.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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