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Munich Security Report warns of US-led dismantling of global order

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The Munich Security Report (MSR), titled “In the Destruction Phase” and released ahead of this Friday’s Munich Security Conference, concludes that the US administration is systematically dismantling the international order established after 1945.

According to MSR 2026, this shift is driven by the rise of rival states within that very “order.” The report suggests that the Trump administration and far-right forces in Europe can rely on broad public support in their efforts to dismantle existing structures. Facing a pervasive sense of crisis, these groups sympathize with “destruction politics” because they see no future for themselves in the current system.

However, the MSR warns that this environment does not favor the “weakest” but rather the “most powerful actors in the international system.”

An era of “destruction politics”

The 2026 Munich Security Report describes an era of “destruction politics” characterized by the systematic dismantling of the post-1945 international order. Under the second Trump administration, the US has transformed from the primary architect of global stability into a disruptive force, withdrawing from multilateral institutions and significantly slashing humanitarian aid. The report argues that the American retreat—coupled with the war in Ukraine and China’s growing influence—has forced European and Indo-Pacific allies into a “struggle to find strategic autonomy.”

Identifying a “deep pessimism” across G7 nations, the report highlights that many citizens have lost faith in the ability of democratic governments to manage inequality, climate change, and security. Consequently, traditional alliances are devolving into “transactional” relationships, leaving the international community facing an existential crisis. The remaining “rules-based actors” are now compelled to forge new, independent partnerships.

The Munich Security Report adds that current political upheavals should not be attributed solely to President Donald Trump’s “personal beliefs.” Instead, the MSR points to the fact that these disruptions are rooted in the still “extraordinary” power of the US and the specific interests of American elites.

The return of “spheres of influence”

According to the report, “destruction politics” is redefining the global order by discarding the institutions, norms, and alliances of the post-1945 system in favor of a transaction-based, power-oriented approach. Led by the US—the former architect of the old order—this dynamic favors “comprehensive destruction” over incremental reform, based on the premise that existing structures are broken beyond repair.

For example, the “Pax Americana” security umbrella is being replaced by a volatile environment where security is conditional and alliances are viewed as financial liabilities rather than strategic assets. The US administration now approaches international relations through the lens of “deal-making” rather than shared values.

Under the threat of a US withdrawal, NATO allies are being forced to accept defense spending targets of 3.5% to 5% of GDP. Security guarantees are increasingly linked to economic concessions, transforming partnerships into fragile “patron-client relationships.” Core norms, such as territorial integrity and the prohibition of the use of force, are being openly questioned. The report cites the US threat to “acquire” Greenland, military operations in Venezuela characterized as “enforcement of domestic law,” and pressure on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia as prime examples.

The MSR suggests this shift marks a transition toward a “post-legal” world where the only limit on power is the leader’s “own morality.” Pointing to a fragmentation of the global order into regional spheres of influence (a new Großraumpolitik), the report believes the US National Security Strategy prioritizes “American primacy in the Western Hemisphere” while effectively ceding other regions to rival powers like China and Russia.

Similarly, the global trade system is shifting from a “rules-based” framework governed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) toward a landscape dominated by economic nationalism and coercion. According to the MSR, these actions trigger unprecedented economic uncertainty, often described as the “highest tariff.” While some countries attempt to form new trade coalitions independent of the US to preserve the “rules-based system,” the general trend is toward fragmentation and a “law of the jungle” economy where the strong prey on the weak.

The report criticizes the politics of “creative destruction” in problem-solving, warning that this approach could leave the international order in “ruins” and create a world that “privileges the rich and powerful while leaving vulnerable populations and small states at the mercy of great powers.”

Two focal points: Europe and the Indo-Pacific

The report defines the regional consequences for Europe and the Indo-Pacific as the erosion of the traditional US-led security order, the rise of aggressive regional powers, and a forced adaptation to a more “transactional and unpredictable” US.

For Europe, the primary consequence is the collapse of the “Pax Americana” security umbrella, which previously allowed the continent to prioritize prosperity over hard power. Identifying Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and an intensified “hybrid war” campaign as the most significant threats to European security, the report claims Moscow has shifted to a “full war economy” and is actively testing European defenses through sabotage, cyberattacks, and airspace violations.

According to the organizers of the Munich conference, intelligence estimates suggest that Russia could restructure its forces shortly after a potential ceasefire to threaten the Baltic Sea region. The report emphasizes that the US has sharply reduced military aid to Ukraine, forcing European nations to create mechanisms like the “Priority Ukraine Needs List” (PURL) to sustain Kyiv’s war effort. Furthermore, a leaked US peace plan reportedly blindsided European capitals by suggesting territorial concessions for Ukraine and a rejection of NATO membership—moves that serve Russian interests.

While European countries increased their defense budgets by approximately 41% between 2021 and 2025, they remain heavily dependent on US military equipment. Efforts to build “strategic autonomy” are hampered by uncoordinated procurement and financial constraints, leaving the continent vulnerable during its difficult transition from a security consumer to a security provider.

In the Indo-Pacific, US “unpredictability” has created a power vacuum that China is “aggressively” seeking to fill, forcing regional actors to re-evaluate their alliances. The report notes a shift from US hegemony toward Chinese dominance. The long-promised US “pivot to Asia” is seen as unfulfilled; instead, the US administration has alienated allies through coercive economic policies, including “Independence Day” tariffs that have caused economic chaos in Japan and South Korea.

Allies perceive US actions as self-serving steps focused on burden-sharing and deal-making with Beijing, rather than principled security guarantees. In response, regional powers like Japan, South Korea, and Australia are significantly increasing defense spending and deepening bilateral partnerships. However, harboring doubts about US “reliability,” many countries are pursuing “hedging” strategies by drawing closer to China. For instance, New Delhi is expanding economic ties with Beijing, while ASEAN is broadening its free trade area with China.

Both regions face a “new era of uncertainty,” forced to navigate a security environment characterized by US withdrawal and the “assertive stance of authoritarian powers.”

Trump’s partners in destruction: The European right

The Munich Security Report also examines why the Trump administration’s policies enjoy broad approval, similar to those of far-right forces in Europe. The report points to a deep economic and social crisis in the Western world. For many, the “current order” is directly associated with the cost-of-living crisis, rising inequality, the end of social mobility, and stagnant or declining living standards.

According to a survey conducted for the Munich Security Conference, a relative majority of the population in Western countries firmly believes that future generations will be worse off as a result of current government policies. In Germany, France, and the UK, this figure exceeds 50%. Conversely, 61% and 80% of the populations in India and China, respectively, believe future generations will be better off.

In the West, an increasing number of people believe their political systems have failed and that governments can no longer make the necessary corrections. According to the report, this sentiment fuels the acceptance of “destruction politics.” Political forces promising to lead their countries to a new greatness by breaking free from the constraints of the existing order are gaining prominence, with the Trump administration at the forefront of this movement.

The MSR identifies Trump alongside other politicians working to dismantle norms—such as Argentine leader Javier Milei—referring to them as “demolition men.” These groups are classified as part of a broader “destructionist” movement fueled by dissatisfaction with the status quo. Rather than seeking reform, they are characterized by a “desire for destruction” (Zerstörungslust) and a will to tear down existing institutions. These figures believe in a world shaped not by “international rules,” but solely by the “will of the great powers.”

The report emphasizes that the traditional Western “liberal internationalist” understanding is being openly challenged by an “illiberal-nationalist” counter-proposal. This internal division weakens the alliance’s normative bond, while some leaders, such as Giorgia Meloni, attempt to bridge the gap with slogans like “Make the West Great Again.”

Social Darwinism returns in the guise of geopolitics

The authors of the Munich Security Report warn that the elimination of all international norms will not lead to the “creative construction” of a new, tolerable order. Instead, they foresee a “world full of rubble” that the strongest in the international system can exploit for their own ends, while the “weakest” at the bottom face the danger of being crushed.

At this year’s Munich Security Conference, the US delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and two billionaires, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Neither holds an official political office, yet both serve as the President’s chief negotiators in various major conflicts and are board members of the Peace Board, an organization directly reporting to Trump.

The report notes that “public” interests are being displaced by “private” interests, pointing out that in the US, the President’s policies can no longer be separated from the real estate and crypto interests of his inner circle.

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India’s Russian oil imports hit record high as Middle East tensions disrupt markets

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23/06/2026

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India is increasing imports of Russian oil and coal as supply chain disruptions and rising prices linked to tensions involving Iran reshape global energy flows.

According to a Reuters report citing data from analytics firm Kpler, shipments from Russia to India reached record levels in June.

Kpler estimates that Russian oil deliveries to India will rise to a record 2.55 million barrels per day in June.

That would surpass both the 2.13 million barrels per day recorded in May and the previous high of 2.16 million barrels per day registered in May 2023.

Russia’s share of India’s total oil imports in June is expected to come in at just under 50%. Before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the figure averaged 23% during the three months preceding February 28.

India’s shift toward Russian crude followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and a temporary suspension of sanctions on purchases by the administration of US President Donald Trump in an effort to increase market supply.

However, the sanctions waiver expired on June 17 and was not extended by the US Treasury Department.

Reuters noted that this could lead to a decline in purchases of Russian crude, although the outcome will depend on the willingness of Indian refiners and government officials to return to sourcing shipments from Middle Eastern suppliers.

According to Kpler forecasts, imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to remain at 349,000 barrels per day in June. That compares with an average of 832,000 barrels per day during the three months before the conflict.

A similar trend is visible in coal imports. Imports of Russian coal across all grades are expected to reach 3.16 million tonnes in June, compared with 3.27 million tonnes in May.

Both figures would rank as the second and third highest on record, respectively, behind the peak of 3.76 million tonnes registered in May last year.

Russia is also expected to overtake Australia in June to become the second-largest supplier of coal to India, the world’s second-largest coal importer after China.

According to Reuters, Russia is likely to maintain its role as one of India’s key coal suppliers. Future purchases of Russian oil, however, will depend on whether Washington moves to tighten sanctions against Moscow.

New Delhi says oil shipments will not be affected by sanctions

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in mid-June that the country had increased purchases of Russian oil since 2022 at Washington’s request in order to help contain global energy prices.

Jaishankar criticised US restrictions on Russian commodities and urged policymakers not to present such measures as matters of grand principle.

Sujata Sharma, a representative of India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, also said in May that shipments from Russia were continuing and would do so regardless of US decisions concerning sanctions waivers.

Indian refiners reduced imports from Russia in 2025 and turned to suppliers in Saudi Arabia and Iraq amid pressure from the United States and threats of a 25% tariff on Indian goods.

However, Reuters data show that following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Indian companies began increasing purchases of Russian crude again in early March.

Russia’s ambassador to New Delhi, Denis Alipov, said at the end of April that Moscow was prepared to supply as much raw material as India was willing to accept.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later confirmed that Moscow remained committed to its agreements on energy shipments to India.

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EU, US and China intensify competition over Africa’s strategic minerals through Lobito Corridor

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23/06/2026

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Africa is becoming an increasingly intense arena of competition among China, the US and the European Union over access to strategic raw materials.

According to an analysis by German Foreign Policy, the Lobito Corridor, a rail link connecting the copper belt of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola, is playing a pivotal role in that contest.

The infrastructure project is regarded as one of the flagship initiatives of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy and is also viewed by Washington, which is investing in the region, as a means of reducing dependence on China.

In the future, copper, cobalt, lithium and other raw materials essential for the production of batteries, electric vehicles, digital technologies and military equipment will be transported westward via this route.

The initiative builds on infrastructure originally constructed during the colonial era to facilitate the export of African raw materials.

Critics argue that the expansion of the Lobito Corridor perpetuates existing patterns of resource extraction under new conditions.

Global Gateway as a counter to the Belt and Road

The European Commission approved the Global Gateway programme in September 2021.

Under the programme, nearly €300 billion is to be invested in infrastructure projects across Africa, Asia, Oceania, Southeast Europe, and South and Central America by 2027.

The programme is widely viewed as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

One of its central objectives is to diversify Europe’s imports of critical raw materials, particularly by reducing dependence on supplies from China.

During a visit to China in late May 2026, German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche of the CDU underscored the importance of secure access to critical raw materials and rare earth elements. This is the area in which Germany remains most dependent on China.

Colonial-era infrastructure remains intact

One of the clearest examples is the 1,300-kilometre Lobito Corridor, which runs from the edge of the Zambia-Southern Congo copper belt to the port of Lobito in Angola.

The core infrastructure of this trade corridor was established through the Benguela Railway, which was built as early as 1902 at the height of European colonial expansion. The railway extended eastward from the port city of Lobito through what is now Angola, providing access to the mineral-rich regions of southern Congo and Zambia.

In 1931, following completion of the initial railway line, the British mining and railway company Tanganyika Concessions transferred its 99-year concession rights to Portugal’s colony of Angola.

The concession expired in 2001, after which the infrastructure, previously controlled by Portuguese authorities, was transferred to the Angolan government.

By 2030, annual copper shipments through the route are expected to reach one million metric tonnes.

Both the EU and the US are relying heavily on the Lobito Corridor in an effort to counter China’s dominant position in Africa’s raw materials sector.

Estimates indicate that roughly two-thirds of global cobalt production originates in the Congo, where Chinese companies are particularly active in mining operations.

China also accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt processing capacity.

The colonial-era rail line leading to Lobito is intended to redirect exports of copper, cobalt and other raw materials, which have until now largely been shipped eastward via Tanzania, toward western markets, enabling processing in Europe or North America rather than China.

Europe seeks to reduce dependence on China for the green transition

In addition to copper and cobalt, the region holds substantial deposits of lithium, coltan, nickel and rare earth elements, giving it significant economic importance.

These materials are used in electric vehicle batteries, stationary energy storage systems and alloys required for military aircraft production.

Until now, the EU has sourced much of these materials from China. Strategic investment in a new logistics hub in Luau, Angola, located along the Lobito Corridor, is intended to reduce that dependence.

The railway line along the corridor is already operated by a European consortium.

The consortium includes Swiss commodities trader Trafigura, Portuguese construction group Mota-Engil and Belgian rail company Vecturis.

However, the majority of the mines remain under Chinese control. In the Congo, 24 of the country’s 33 cobalt-exporting companies are Chinese-backed.

The Lobito Corridor is being developed through an EU-US partnership

EU efforts to secure influence over the Lobito Corridor are advancing in parallel with similar initiatives by the United States.

In early 2022, the US signed a memorandum of understanding with the EU and other G7 members to mobilise more than $600 billion for infrastructure projects worldwide over the following five years as part of the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII).

The Lobito Corridor is one of five key trade, transit and development corridors in Southern Africa designed to improve transport efficiency.

During the administration of President Joe Biden, financing for the Lobito Corridor was launched under the G7’s PGII framework as a flagship project in cooperation with the Global Gateway initiative.

The EU also regards the expansion of the Lobito Corridor as a critical project and has committed more than €2 billion in funding.

That support could increase further. The next EU budget cycle beginning in 2028 envisages nearly doubling spending on development and external assistance, from €108 billion to €200 billion.

EU officials present the strategy as an effort to offer a more comprehensive approach to infrastructure financing than China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

‘America First’ in Africa

The US has pledged hundreds of millions of dollars for the expansion of the Lobito Corridor.

In the final quarter of 2025 alone, it provided $553 million in loans for the project’s expansion.

An additional $200 million in support came from the Development Bank of Southern Africa.

Unlike the Biden administration, which frequently described the initiative as development assistance, the second Trump administration openly characterises the project as an effort to weaken China’s influence, strengthen US control over critical raw materials and diversify supply chains.

For example, Frank Garcia, a former naval officer appointed in late May as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, praised the Trump administration’s continuing engagement on the continent.

Highlighting the Lobito Corridor in particular, Garcia said the project aligns key US interests in Africa with the “America First” approach.

Germany in Africa for the energy transition

Last autumn, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier travelled several kilometres on the newly restored railway line along the Lobito Corridor and described it as “a strategic infrastructure project of enormous economic importance.”

The German politician added: “Of course, this infrastructure connection also creates investment opportunities for European and German companies along its route.”

Portuguese construction company MCA is currently building solar energy parks in 60 municipalities across Angola at a cost of just under €1.29 billion.

The client is Angola’s Energy Ministry, while the German government is supporting the project through export credit guarantees.

Should Angola fail to meet its payment obligations, Germany would step in. A total of 95% of the project value is guaranteed by the Federal Republic of Germany.

In return, Angola agreed to allow German companies to participate in the project. For example, the battery storage system is being supplied by SMA Solar Technology, based in Niestetal near Kassel.

German solar technology provider Gantner Instruments Environment Solutions is supplying the digital control system.

Critics of the Lobito Corridor expansion warn that the project will primarily benefit the EU and the US.

In their view, the initiative promotes the export of African raw materials rather than strengthening intra-African trade.

Although the EU presents these measures as a development project aligned with African interests, critics argue that they ultimately represent a continuation of Western exploitation of African resources.

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EU presses Türkiye for non-Russian gas supplies under future energy contracts

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22/06/2026

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The European Union is insisting that natural gas delivered to member states via Türkiye under new supply agreements must not be of Russian origin.

German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said after an official visit to Ankara that “Türkiye understands that the EU attaches great importance to ending the supply of raw materials originating from Russia and accepts this reality.”

Reiche added that Turkish officials had made it clear that replacing supplies from Russia could not be achieved overnight, either economically or in terms of available alternative sources.

As of June 17, a ban on pipeline natural gas imports from Russia under short-term contracts signed more than a year ago entered into force across the European Union.

The measure was approved by the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament at the end of last year. In January 2025, EU member states also voted to phase out Russian gas completely by 2027. Under that decision, member states are required to verify the origin of gas supplies before authorizing deliveries.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based company Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, has launched legal action challenging the regulation imposing the ban on Russian gas imports.

Türkiye, for its part, is continuing negotiations with Gazprom on natural gas supplies for the period after 2026, as existing contracts are approaching expiration.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar previously said the parties had yet to reach agreement on potential shipment volumes and the duration of any new contracts.

In December 2025, Ankara extended by one year two agreements with Gazprom covering gas deliveries through the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines.

Türkiye is seeking to reduce Russia’s share of its gas supply mix. Russia’s share of Türkiye’s natural gas imports has already fallen below 40%.

As part of its energy diversification strategy, Ankara plans to replace part of Russian gas imports with supplies from the United States and Central Asia.

Bayraktar previously said that despite US calls to abandon Russian energy resources, Türkiye would continue purchasing natural gas from Russia.

“We cannot tell our citizens there is no gas available. We have agreements with Russia. Winter is approaching. We need gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan,” Bayraktar said.

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