The Munich Security Report (MSR), titled “In the Destruction Phase” and released ahead of this Friday’s Munich Security Conference, concludes that the US administration is systematically dismantling the international order established after 1945.

According to MSR 2026, this shift is driven by the rise of rival states within that very “order.” The report suggests that the Trump administration and far-right forces in Europe can rely on broad public support in their efforts to dismantle existing structures. Facing a pervasive sense of crisis, these groups sympathize with “destruction politics” because they see no future for themselves in the current system.

However, the MSR warns that this environment does not favor the “weakest” but rather the “most powerful actors in the international system.”

An era of “destruction politics”

The 2026 Munich Security Report describes an era of “destruction politics” characterized by the systematic dismantling of the post-1945 international order. Under the second Trump administration, the US has transformed from the primary architect of global stability into a disruptive force, withdrawing from multilateral institutions and significantly slashing humanitarian aid. The report argues that the American retreat—coupled with the war in Ukraine and China’s growing influence—has forced European and Indo-Pacific allies into a “struggle to find strategic autonomy.”

Identifying a “deep pessimism” across G7 nations, the report highlights that many citizens have lost faith in the ability of democratic governments to manage inequality, climate change, and security. Consequently, traditional alliances are devolving into “transactional” relationships, leaving the international community facing an existential crisis. The remaining “rules-based actors” are now compelled to forge new, independent partnerships.

The Munich Security Report adds that current political upheavals should not be attributed solely to President Donald Trump’s “personal beliefs.” Instead, the MSR points to the fact that these disruptions are rooted in the still “extraordinary” power of the US and the specific interests of American elites.

The return of “spheres of influence”

According to the report, “destruction politics” is redefining the global order by discarding the institutions, norms, and alliances of the post-1945 system in favor of a transaction-based, power-oriented approach. Led by the US—the former architect of the old order—this dynamic favors “comprehensive destruction” over incremental reform, based on the premise that existing structures are broken beyond repair.

For example, the “Pax Americana” security umbrella is being replaced by a volatile environment where security is conditional and alliances are viewed as financial liabilities rather than strategic assets. The US administration now approaches international relations through the lens of “deal-making” rather than shared values.

Under the threat of a US withdrawal, NATO allies are being forced to accept defense spending targets of 3.5% to 5% of GDP. Security guarantees are increasingly linked to economic concessions, transforming partnerships into fragile “patron-client relationships.” Core norms, such as territorial integrity and the prohibition of the use of force, are being openly questioned. The report cites the US threat to “acquire” Greenland, military operations in Venezuela characterized as “enforcement of domestic law,” and pressure on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia as prime examples.

The MSR suggests this shift marks a transition toward a “post-legal” world where the only limit on power is the leader’s “own morality.” Pointing to a fragmentation of the global order into regional spheres of influence (a new Großraumpolitik), the report believes the US National Security Strategy prioritizes “American primacy in the Western Hemisphere” while effectively ceding other regions to rival powers like China and Russia.

Similarly, the global trade system is shifting from a “rules-based” framework governed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) toward a landscape dominated by economic nationalism and coercion. According to the MSR, these actions trigger unprecedented economic uncertainty, often described as the “highest tariff.” While some countries attempt to form new trade coalitions independent of the US to preserve the “rules-based system,” the general trend is toward fragmentation and a “law of the jungle” economy where the strong prey on the weak.

The report criticizes the politics of “creative destruction” in problem-solving, warning that this approach could leave the international order in “ruins” and create a world that “privileges the rich and powerful while leaving vulnerable populations and small states at the mercy of great powers.”

Two focal points: Europe and the Indo-Pacific

The report defines the regional consequences for Europe and the Indo-Pacific as the erosion of the traditional US-led security order, the rise of aggressive regional powers, and a forced adaptation to a more “transactional and unpredictable” US.

For Europe, the primary consequence is the collapse of the “Pax Americana” security umbrella, which previously allowed the continent to prioritize prosperity over hard power. Identifying Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and an intensified “hybrid war” campaign as the most significant threats to European security, the report claims Moscow has shifted to a “full war economy” and is actively testing European defenses through sabotage, cyberattacks, and airspace violations.

According to the organizers of the Munich conference, intelligence estimates suggest that Russia could restructure its forces shortly after a potential ceasefire to threaten the Baltic Sea region. The report emphasizes that the US has sharply reduced military aid to Ukraine, forcing European nations to create mechanisms like the “Priority Ukraine Needs List” (PURL) to sustain Kyiv’s war effort. Furthermore, a leaked US peace plan reportedly blindsided European capitals by suggesting territorial concessions for Ukraine and a rejection of NATO membership—moves that serve Russian interests.

While European countries increased their defense budgets by approximately 41% between 2021 and 2025, they remain heavily dependent on US military equipment. Efforts to build “strategic autonomy” are hampered by uncoordinated procurement and financial constraints, leaving the continent vulnerable during its difficult transition from a security consumer to a security provider.

In the Indo-Pacific, US “unpredictability” has created a power vacuum that China is “aggressively” seeking to fill, forcing regional actors to re-evaluate their alliances. The report notes a shift from US hegemony toward Chinese dominance. The long-promised US “pivot to Asia” is seen as unfulfilled; instead, the US administration has alienated allies through coercive economic policies, including “Independence Day” tariffs that have caused economic chaos in Japan and South Korea.

Allies perceive US actions as self-serving steps focused on burden-sharing and deal-making with Beijing, rather than principled security guarantees. In response, regional powers like Japan, South Korea, and Australia are significantly increasing defense spending and deepening bilateral partnerships. However, harboring doubts about US “reliability,” many countries are pursuing “hedging” strategies by drawing closer to China. For instance, New Delhi is expanding economic ties with Beijing, while ASEAN is broadening its free trade area with China.

Both regions face a “new era of uncertainty,” forced to navigate a security environment characterized by US withdrawal and the “assertive stance of authoritarian powers.”

Trump’s partners in destruction: The European right

The Munich Security Report also examines why the Trump administration’s policies enjoy broad approval, similar to those of far-right forces in Europe. The report points to a deep economic and social crisis in the Western world. For many, the “current order” is directly associated with the cost-of-living crisis, rising inequality, the end of social mobility, and stagnant or declining living standards.

According to a survey conducted for the Munich Security Conference, a relative majority of the population in Western countries firmly believes that future generations will be worse off as a result of current government policies. In Germany, France, and the UK, this figure exceeds 50%. Conversely, 61% and 80% of the populations in India and China, respectively, believe future generations will be better off.

In the West, an increasing number of people believe their political systems have failed and that governments can no longer make the necessary corrections. According to the report, this sentiment fuels the acceptance of “destruction politics.” Political forces promising to lead their countries to a new greatness by breaking free from the constraints of the existing order are gaining prominence, with the Trump administration at the forefront of this movement.

The MSR identifies Trump alongside other politicians working to dismantle norms—such as Argentine leader Javier Milei—referring to them as “demolition men.” These groups are classified as part of a broader “destructionist” movement fueled by dissatisfaction with the status quo. Rather than seeking reform, they are characterized by a “desire for destruction” (Zerstörungslust) and a will to tear down existing institutions. These figures believe in a world shaped not by “international rules,” but solely by the “will of the great powers.”

The report emphasizes that the traditional Western “liberal internationalist” understanding is being openly challenged by an “illiberal-nationalist” counter-proposal. This internal division weakens the alliance’s normative bond, while some leaders, such as Giorgia Meloni, attempt to bridge the gap with slogans like “Make the West Great Again.”

Social Darwinism returns in the guise of geopolitics

The authors of the Munich Security Report warn that the elimination of all international norms will not lead to the “creative construction” of a new, tolerable order. Instead, they foresee a “world full of rubble” that the strongest in the international system can exploit for their own ends, while the “weakest” at the bottom face the danger of being crushed.

At this year’s Munich Security Conference, the US delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and two billionaires, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Neither holds an official political office, yet both serve as the President’s chief negotiators in various major conflicts and are board members of the Peace Board, an organization directly reporting to Trump.

The report notes that “public” interests are being displaced by “private” interests, pointing out that in the US, the President’s policies can no longer be separated from the real estate and crypto interests of his inner circle.