Croatia has announced plans to purchase Bayraktar TB2 drones from Türkiye in a €86 million ($91 million) deal, the Croatian government confirmed on Thursday. This decision comes shortly after a parliamentary committee supported acquiring U.S.-made missile systems, demonstrating Croatia’s commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities.

The acquisition of Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles) is approved until 2026, according to a government statement. The deal includes six drones, essential equipment, and specialized training to prepare the Croatian army to “respond effectively to contemporary threats.”

On the same day, Croatia’s parliamentary defense committee approved the purchase of eight HIMARS missile systems from the United States. This acquisition, valued at approximately $290 million, marks a strategic advancement in the country’s artillery missile units. Chief of the General Staff Tihomir Kundid described the acquisition as ushering in “a new era of artillery missile units” for Croatia.

The government also announced plans to purchase up to 50 Leopard tanks from Germany. In a deal structured to support Ukraine, Croatia will send some older tanks and military equipment to Kyiv. Under the memorandum of understanding signed by Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anusic and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in late October, Zagreb will supply Kyiv with 30 tanks, 30 combat vehicles, ammunition, and equipment. The value of this equipment will be deducted from the total cost of the Leopard 2A8 tanks.

As a European Union and NATO member, Croatia has been making significant advancements in military capabilities. In April, it received six Rafale fighter jets from France, the first batch of a 12-jet order, further solidifying Croatia’s aerial defense.

Greece is in discussions with Israel to develop a €2 billion (approximately $2.11 billion) air and missile defense system as part of efforts to modernize its armed forces, Greek officials announced on Thursday.

The defense system is expected to incorporate technology based on Israel’s Iron Dome and other advanced systems that intercept both short- and long-range rockets during conflicts with neighboring regions, including Gaza and Lebanon.

“The plan is to create a multi-layered anti-aircraft and anti-drone system,” a source familiar with the matter told Reuters following a closed-door briefing with Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias. “We are in talks with Israel,” the source added.

A second official confirmed the projected value of the potential agreement, highlighting that Greece aims to allocate €12.8 billion by 2035 to update its military capabilities.

The development of these air defense systems forms part of Athens’ 10-year military procurement plan, which also includes acquiring approximately 40 new F-35 fighter jets and drones from the United States, as well as four Belharra frigates and Rafale jets from France.

“Our efforts are aimed at the rapid transition of our armed forces into the 21st century,” said Defence Minister Dendias ahead of Thursday’s briefing.

Currently, Greece relies on U.S. Patriot missile systems and older Russian S-300 systems to safeguard its airspace.

The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.