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NATO trust in US collapses as allies question viability of Article 5

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Residents of NATO member countries no longer view the US as a reliable defensive shield. Washington’s allies have effectively ceased to characterize the US as a dependable partner upon whom they can rely, particularly in matters of defense.

Furthermore, within a single year of Donald Trump’s return to power, he appears to have alienated the entirety of the major developed world and leading emerging nations, which have begun to assess the US as a threat.

This reality was crystallized by polling results released ahead of the Munich Security Conference, which is set to commence on Friday.

Research conducted in early February at the request of Politico revealed that in Germany, Canada, France, and the UK, the proportion of citizens defining the US as an “unreliable ally” is significantly higher than those who consider it “reliable.”

In Germany, 50% of respondents shared this view, while in Canada, the figure stood at 57%. In France, the percentage of those deeming the US unreliable (44%) was more than double the number of those expressing the opposite view (20%).

Even in the UK, which relies on its “special relationship” with the US, those finding Washington unreliable stood at 39%, while those trusting it remained at just 30%.

NATO members lose faith in US military assistance

NATO allies are coalescing around the view that expecting military aid from the US is no longer viable. The proportion of citizens believing their countries would be protected from an enemy attack due to their relationship with the US fell by 22 points to 28% in France, by 16 points to 29% in Germany, and by 10 points to 43% in the UK within a single year.

Conversely, the percentage of those believing that adversaries would not be deterred by the US rose by 10 to 15 points, reaching levels of 31%, 32%, and 25%, respectively.

Seb Reid of the London-based agency Public First, which conducted the poll, noted in his analysis of the results that last year, Europeans viewed the US as an important ally that, while unpredictable, still deterred adversaries.

Reid provided the following assessment regarding the current landscape:

“However, European public opinion now not only ceases to view the transatlantic deterrence provided by the NATO alliance as a guarantee, but it also struggles to believe in the very existence of that deterrence. For leaders heading to the Munich Conference, the fundamental question is now this: How can the security provided by this alliance be reconstructed without US participation?”

Simulation of Russian intervention in Lithuania reinforces anxieties

This sentiment was also reflected in a recent simulation of a Russian military intervention in Lithuania, conducted by military officials and experts in Germany.

Participants in the exercise concluded that if Moscow were to present its operation as a “humanitarian mission,” the US President might avoid invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter regarding collective defense.

A separate poll prepared for the Munich Security Conference, covering the G7 (excluding Russia) and BRICS nations, revealed that the US is now viewed as a serious threat.

According to data cited by the Financial Times, the sharpest increase in this attitude occurred in Canada. This rate, which was 19% in November 2024, surged to 44% by November 2025, when the survey was conducted.

Trump’s repeated statements regarding his desire to make Canada the 51st state of the US were instrumental in shaping this perception.

Based on current data, 50% of Canadians view the US as a threat, a ratio that has reached the same level as the perception of China.

G7 and BRICS nations designate US as a threat

Other BRICS nations are following Canada’s lead; South Africa (40%), Brazil (34%), and India (29%) now characterize the US as a threat.

In Germany, this rate rose from 23% a year ago to 29%, matching India. Similar increases were observed across all G7 nations.

All these developments were recorded before Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and launched an offensive involving threats to use force to secure control over the Danish territory of Greenland, or to impose tariffs on European countries attempting to intervene.

Following these moves by Trump, attitudes toward the US deteriorated further. According to a YouGov poll, 84% of Danes expressed a negative view of the US in January; this figure was 70% in November, and averaged 36% during Joe Biden’s presidency.

The proportion of those who still view America as a friend or allied nation has fallen below half among respondents in Spain (39%), Germany (41%), and the UK (46%).

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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