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NYT: Biden approves classified nuclear strategy focused on China threat

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The United States has updated a highly classified nuclear strategy to address China’s growing arsenal and potential cooperation with Russia and other countries, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The Nuclear Posture Guidance, which is normally revised every four years, is only available to a select group of administration officials because of its sensitive nature. Even members of Congress do not have full access to the manual, which details the US response in the event of a nuclear attack.

According to the New York Times, US President Joe Biden approved the revised plan in March.

According to the NYT, the revised manual for the first time explicitly mentions deterrence strategies against ‘China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal’. The document also mentions the possibility of coordinated attacks involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Senior officials in the Biden administration had previously hinted at this shift. In June, Pranay Vaddi, a senior director at the National Security Council, told an arms control conference that Biden was expanding the policy to address the threats posed by these countries in light of ‘the realities of a new nuclear age’.

“The revised policy] emphasises the need to account for the growth and diversity of the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal and to deter Russia, the DPRK and North Korea simultaneously,” Vaddi said.

Vaddi also explained that Washington is considering expanding its arsenal to counter the strike capabilities of its adversaries. Experts say this marks a significant shift from the post-Cold War era, when the United States began diplomatic efforts to reduce global nuclear stockpiles.

In a brief statement following the New York Times report, the White House said the review of the nuclear employment guidelines “is in no way secret … [and] is not in response to any one entity, country or threat”.

In June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that China had added 90 nuclear warheads to its arsenal, bringing its total to 500 as of January.

The report also predicted that China’s total number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, currently around 238, could surpass the US’s 800 or Russia’s 1,244 within the next decade.

The US and China resumed informal nuclear arms talks in March for the first time in five years. However, all negotiations were suspended in July in response to US arms sales to Taiwan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the sales ‘seriously jeopardise the political atmosphere necessary for the resumption of arms control consultations’.

The issue was also raised by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a conversation with Elon Musk on X, formerly Twitter. Trump expressed concern that China was catching up with the US in nuclear capacity.

That’s where you need a strong American president because you don’t want that kind of proliferation,’ Trump said.

In May, US Air Force Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse, director of defence intelligence at the Pentagon, told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that ‘even if Russia and China cannot work together as military powers, they will certainly work together’, stressing that the armed forces should review their strategies.

In the same session, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said that Sino-Russian operations ‘in many ways have led to new government-wide planning’.

DIPLOMACY

China pledges $50bn in aid as it opens markets to Africa

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Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday pledged 360 billion yuan ($50 billion) in financial aid to African countries over the next three years. In addition, Beijing will open its markets to 33 least developed countries in Africa, which will have access to all Chinese products at zero tariffs.

Speaking at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing, Xi made a series of commitments covering trade, industrial supply chains, infrastructure connectivity, health, people-to-people exchanges and security.

Leaders and representatives from more than 50 African countries are attending the forum, which has been described as Beijing’s biggest diplomatic event in recent years and is held every three years.

Leaders will discuss infrastructure projects, climate change, the new energy economy, security and peace, and Africa’s credit problems.

“After nearly 70 years of hard work, China-Africa relations are now enjoying the best period in history,” Xi said in his opening speech to delegations from more than 50 African countries attending the meeting, which has been held every three years since 2000 and alternates between China and an African host.

With the African Union’s Agenda 2063 development plan reflecting China’s long-term development path, Xi said the two sides’ approach “will definitely lead the modernisation trend in the global south”.

Of the 360 billion yuan in financing, 210 billion yuan will be in the form of loans, while the rest will be provided through various forms of assistance, including 70 billion yuan to promote investment by Chinese companies in Africa. This lending, which will average around $10 billion per year over the next three years, is similar to the annual commitments made under the Belt and Road Initiative nearly a decade ago.

According to a recent study by the Center for Global Development Policy at Boston University, Chinese lenders will provide $4.61 billion in loans to eight African countries in 2023.

China’s financial offers are welcome, as many underdeveloped countries in Africa need financing and investment to achieve their development goals, but there may be some challenges, experts say.

A lack of regulatory capacity on the African side could make it difficult to engage effectively with these actors, especially if there is a lack of coordination.

On Thursday, Xi also pledged to help African countries issue yuan-denominated bonds to boost bilateral cooperation.

In addition to loans, Xi said China would provide Africa with 1 billion yuan worth of free aid to train 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police officers as part of Beijing’s Global Security Initiative, which includes joint military exercises.

“China is willing to help Africa improve its capacity to independently maintain peace and stability,” Xi said, adding that Africa is experiencing a ‘new dawn’ and making ‘steady progress’ on the road to modernisation.

China will offer 33 underdeveloped African countries greater market access by eliminating tariffs on unspecified products.

Other forms of assistance include the construction of vocational training facilities for 60,000 students, 30 infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative to improve land and sea connectivity, 1 billion yuan in emergency food aid, and support for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

China has also announced that it will help train African officials to improve governance. Beijing will set up 25 African research centres and invite 1,000 African officials and politicians to China to learn about modern governance.

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Kremlin: We will consider Turkey’s application for BRICS membership

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Russian Vice President Yury Ushakov told reporters that BRICS countries will consider Turkey’s application for full membership in the grouping.

“Turkey has applied for full membership. We will evaluate it,” he said.

The day before, Bloomberg reported that Ankara had applied for BRICS membership several months ago.

According to the agency, the issue of expanding the grouping could be discussed at the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October, to which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been invited.

AK Party spokesman Omer Celik said on Sunday that Erdogan had repeatedly expressed interest in joining BRICS, but that no concrete decision had been taken on Ankara’s membership.

BRICS currently consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group aims to foster economic cooperation among its members and promote a multipolar world order.

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The first in 12 years: Egyptian President Sisi in Ankara

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi, who arrived in Ankara for an official visit. This is the first Egyptian presidential visit to Türkiye in 12 years.

The plane that brought Sisi and his accompanying delegation to Ankara landed at Esenboğa Airport.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Ankara Governor Vasip Şahin and other officials accompanied President Erdoğan at the official welcoming ceremony.

After meeting for a while at the Hall of Honour at Esenboğa Airport, Erdoğan and Sisi drove to the Presidential Complex in the same executive car.

Following the bilateral meeting, President Erdoğan and Egyptian President Sisi will attend the meeting of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council. A signing ceremony of agreements and a joint press conference will be held with the participation of the two leaders.

This will be the first meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, restructured under the Joint Declaration signed during President Erdoğan’s visit to Cairo on 14 February. The meeting will be attended by ministers from both countries.

It is stated that the Council meeting will review all aspects of Türkiye-Egypt relations and discuss the joint steps that can be taken in the coming period to further develop bilateral cooperation.

In addition, a number of documents are expected to be signed to strengthen relations, as well as agreements in the fields of finance, energy, urbanisation and health.

Israel’s attacks on Gaza and peace efforts will also be on the table during the talks.

President Erdoğan will host an official dinner in Sisi’s honour.

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