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Pakistan hosts a major security meeting tomorrow; Taliban not invited

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Pakistan is going to host a major security meeting tomorrow (Tuesday) with senior leaders from the regional countries, including China, Russia and India among them.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 by China and Russia in order to discuss security concerns in Central Asian states and the wider region. At the height of political tensions, Pakistan will host the SCO meeting in the capital city, Islamabad, and it will be held under strict security measures, and Pakistan has declared a public holiday for three days.

The Taliban, the current ruler of Afghanistan, have not been officially invited to this meeting. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that seven Prime Ministers, one Vice President and the Foreign Minister of India will participate in this meeting.

This is the first major regional meeting that Pakistan is hosting after many years in the wake of Pashtoon justice jirga which has been held in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province with participation of thousands of people from different segments of the country. Meanwhile, protests by the supporters of the former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s have also made the political atmosphere of this country tense.

At the same time, the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has always been a serious concern of the members of this SCO, and the presence of terrorist groups and drug smuggling from Afghanistan were also a great concern among the members at the Shanghai Summit in Kazakhstan.

However, Pakistan is hosting the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the SCO, which is the second highest meeting of this organization. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that the prime ministers of China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, along with the first vice president of Iran and the foreign minister of India, will attend the meeting.

Afghanistan’s membership in SCO is not clear since September 2021 when Taliban return to power.

Also, the Prime Minister of Mongolia as an observer member and Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan will participate in the meeting as special guests.

In 2005, the contact group of the Shanghai-Afghanistan Cooperation Organization was established, and since then efforts have increased for Afghanistan to be a permanent member of this organization.

However, after the collapse of the republic system and the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan, the status of Afghanistan’s membership in this organization is not clear, and the Taliban also not invited in this meeting.

Express Tribune, a Pakistani media outlet, has reported, quoting its diplomatic sources, that the Taliban were not invited to the Summit.

According to the Tribune, the secretariat of this meeting has not issued any invitation to the Taliban. The absence of the Taliban in this meeting has been confirmed after the secretariat of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization did not send an invitation to the Taliban.

This decision has been taken due to the current situation in Afghanistan and the non-recognition of the Taliban by any country, as well as the inactive status of Afghanistan’s permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The report also said that Afghanistan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been inactive since September 2021.

Members of SCO expressed concern over presence of IS and al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan.

Moreover, the heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expressed their concerns about the activities of Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan on July three of this year in Kazakhstan. Some of these countries have said that opium and heroin are smuggled from Afghanistan to their soil.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan media reported that the security institutions have tightened security, and they are ready to maintain security of the summit.

Pakistani media also reported about the non-participation of the Indian Prime Minister in this meeting. It is said that India and Pakistan participate in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State at the level of foreign ministers, because the prime ministers of these countries participate in the meeting of the heads of state, which is the highest forum of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Shahbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, will preside over this meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and on the sidelines of the meeting, he will discuss with the delegations of countries about regional issues and strengthening Pakistan’s economic relations with the members of SCO.

According to the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, this meeting will be about ongoing cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, environment and socio-cultural ties and will review the performance of this organization in the mentioned fields.

This important regional meeting will be held in Pakistan while this country is at the height of political tensions and ethnic differences. The supporters of Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, gathered in the streets of Islamabad last week and demanded Mr. Khan’s release from prison. They warned with anti-government slogans that if the former prime minister is not released, they will come to the streets again.

Pakistan hosting SCO at a time when political stability is fragile in the country.

On the other hand, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement has held a “Pashtoon Jirga” in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Thousands of people, including Pashtun political leaders from different political currents, have participated in this Jirga.

This Jirga has faced widespread reactions among the citizens and politicians of Afghanistan. A number of non-Pashtun activists considered this Jirga ethnic and considered it the cause of hypocrisy among the citizens of the country, while another group supported the claim of this movement and described it as an action to ensure justice at the regional level.

At the same time, a number of politicians have said that neither exaggerated descriptions nor prejudiced reactions are the solution, and it remains to be seen what the outcome of this Jirga will be in light of the rapid developments taking place in the region.

SCO is a political, economic and security alliance working for betterment of the region

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and security alliance in Eurasia that was established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization has since expanded to include India, Pakistan and Iran as full members, while Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia are recognized as observers and other countries as dialogue partners. The SCO is often seen as a counterbalance to Western alliances such as NATO and plays an important role in strengthening regional cooperation.

The highest decision-making body of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the Council of Heads of State (CHS). This council meets once a year and deals with important issues of the organization.

The Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) (CHG) is also held once a year to review the strategy of multilateral cooperation and priorities within the organization, determine fundamental issues and current issues in the economic and other fields, and approve the budget of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The organization has two permanent bodies: the Secretariat in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) in Tashkent.

Afghanistan had joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an observer member on June 7, 2012.

DIPLOMACY

Croatia to buy Bayraktar TB2 drones

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Croatia has announced plans to purchase Bayraktar TB2 drones from Türkiye in a €86 million ($91 million) deal, the Croatian government confirmed on Thursday. This decision comes shortly after a parliamentary committee supported acquiring U.S.-made missile systems, demonstrating Croatia’s commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities.

The acquisition of Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles) is approved until 2026, according to a government statement. The deal includes six drones, essential equipment, and specialized training to prepare the Croatian army to “respond effectively to contemporary threats.”

On the same day, Croatia’s parliamentary defense committee approved the purchase of eight HIMARS missile systems from the United States. This acquisition, valued at approximately $290 million, marks a strategic advancement in the country’s artillery missile units. Chief of the General Staff Tihomir Kundid described the acquisition as ushering in “a new era of artillery missile units” for Croatia.

The government also announced plans to purchase up to 50 Leopard tanks from Germany. In a deal structured to support Ukraine, Croatia will send some older tanks and military equipment to Kyiv. Under the memorandum of understanding signed by Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anusic and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in late October, Zagreb will supply Kyiv with 30 tanks, 30 combat vehicles, ammunition, and equipment. The value of this equipment will be deducted from the total cost of the Leopard 2A8 tanks.

As a European Union and NATO member, Croatia has been making significant advancements in military capabilities. In April, it received six Rafale fighter jets from France, the first batch of a 12-jet order, further solidifying Croatia’s aerial defense.

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DIPLOMACY

Musk’s Iran diplomacy: Maximum pressure or détente?

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Before Donald Trump’s rise to the White House, Elon Musk’s interactions with Iran—and the leaked news that Tehran had provided written assurances to Washington—suggested Trump might pursue a more balanced policy toward Iran. However, the appointment of hawkish figures to senior positions raises questions about the extent to which this balance is feasible.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X, is reportedly set to join Donald Trump’s cabinet. According to sources, he recently met with Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Emir Said Iravani, to discuss ways to reduce U.S.-Iran tensions. During this time, reports leaked indicating that “Iran provided written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it would not attempt to assassinate Trump.”

According to The New York Times (NYT), citing two Iranian officials, Musk met with Iran’s UN envoy Iravani for more than an hour. The meeting allegedly focused on strategies for reducing tensions. The officials described the meeting with Musk as a temporary approach for Iran, emphasizing that Iran chose not to communicate directly with American officials.

Shortly after this meeting became public, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that on October 14, Iran gave written assurances to the Biden administration that it would refrain from targeting Trump. U.S. officials had previously claimed that Iranian agents were involved in assassination plans against Trump, leading to increased security measures during Trump’s campaign.

These written assurances reportedly reached Washington at a critical moment before the U.S. presidential election. However, it remains unclear whether Trump himself received this information. The WSJ noted that in the final days of his campaign, Trump made conciliatory remarks about Iran, stating that while Iran should not develop nuclear weapons, he was not aiming for regime change or conflict with Tehran.

Amid these developments, Tehran has also shown a desire to avoid conflict with a potential new Trump administration. However, some of the individuals Trump has appointed or announced for his next term suggest a toughened “maximum pressure” policy akin to his first term.

Shelving the assassination issue may pave the way for diplomatic engagement between Tehran and a potential new Trump administration, though reaching agreement on other critical issues—especially the nuclear issue—is expected to remain challenging.

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. surged during Trump’s first term, with Trump formally withdrawing in 2018 from the 2015 nuclear deal reached under the Obama administration. Relations, which had deteriorated during Trump’s first term, began to improve under Biden, despite ongoing Israel-Iran confrontations. Notably, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian has pledged to enhance Iran’s economy and work toward lifting sanctions and has taken steps toward cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Some analysts suggest that Trump’s potential return to the presidency may reverse these gains. While Trump’s recent statements do not explicitly indicate a renewed maximum pressure policy, the appointments he has made imply a desire to revive a hardline approach.

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DIPLOMACY

Greece in talks with Israel over €2bn ‘Iron Dome’ system

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Greece is in discussions with Israel to develop a €2 billion (approximately $2.11 billion) air and missile defense system as part of efforts to modernize its armed forces, Greek officials announced on Thursday.

The defense system is expected to incorporate technology based on Israel’s Iron Dome and other advanced systems that intercept both short- and long-range rockets during conflicts with neighboring regions, including Gaza and Lebanon.

“The plan is to create a multi-layered anti-aircraft and anti-drone system,” a source familiar with the matter told Reuters following a closed-door briefing with Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias. “We are in talks with Israel,” the source added.

A second official confirmed the projected value of the potential agreement, highlighting that Greece aims to allocate €12.8 billion by 2035 to update its military capabilities.

The development of these air defense systems forms part of Athens’ 10-year military procurement plan, which also includes acquiring approximately 40 new F-35 fighter jets and drones from the United States, as well as four Belharra frigates and Rafale jets from France.

“Our efforts are aimed at the rapid transition of our armed forces into the 21st century,” said Defence Minister Dendias ahead of Thursday’s briefing.

Currently, Greece relies on U.S. Patriot missile systems and older Russian S-300 systems to safeguard its airspace.

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