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Poland’s fanning the flames intensifies turbulence and unease in Central and Eastern Europe

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On September 19, Polish President Nawrocki told France’s LCI television that Poland is increasing defense spending and, together with other NATO members, taking a series of actions to strengthen deterrence. He also hinted that Poland is also discussing a nuclear-sharing plan with France, preparing to bring in France’s nuclear umbrella. France and the United Kingdom are the “only two” nuclear powers among NATO’s European partners, and France previously declared it would provide nuclear protection for Europe.

This is, after the incursion by a mysterious swarm of drones ten days earlier, Poland further responding to potential security threats by hyping nuclear proliferation and nuclear deterrence. Poland’s series of “overly nervous” moves and taking advantage of the situation to make a splash, even to the point of fanning the flames, will inevitably intensify turbulence and unease in Central and Eastern Europe, reinforce strategic suspicion and mutual deterrence between countries in the region and Russia, and may ultimately backfire on Poland’s own security and development.

According to reports, on the night of September 9, about 20 suspected Russian-made drones broke into Polish airspace. NATO air forces treated it as facing a great enemy and rushed to help Poland resist the incursion. Another NATO member state, Romania, which borders Ukraine, was also intruded by sporadic drones. NATO allies not only used radar to lock in the positions of this batch of drones; the Dutch Air Force’s F-35 fighters also directly took part in the destruction operation. In addition, the German “Patriot” missile system deployed in Poland went on alert; an Italian airborne early warning aircraft and an aerial refueling aircraft from a NATO multinational flight formation also participated in the emergency action. Foreign media said this was the first time since NATO’s founding in 1949 that it opened fire within a member state’s airspace at a potential threat.

On the 10th, Polish Prime Minister Tusk declared that this batch of “threatening” drones “came from Russia,” and pointed out that “this provocation is more dangerous than any previous one.” However, Tusk did not present evidence that the drones set out from Russia. U.S. President Trump also accused Russia on social media of “violating Polish airspace.” The Russian side, however, flatly denied it, saying such accusations with no factual basis have always existed. Russia’s representative to the United Nations, Nebenzya, emphasized that the maximum range of drones used by Russia is 700 kilometers; therefore, they are physically impossible to reach Polish territory. Russia’s only territory bordering Poland is the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, but that area has never been involved in the Russia-Ukraine war.

At the end of 2022, the border area of Poland near Ukraine suffered a missile strike that caused two casualties. The Polish government initially accused Russia of being responsible, but then the Polish President Duda admitted that the missile was very likely from Ukraine’s air defense system. Therefore, Poland and its NATO partners have characterized this incident as a “provocation” rather than an “attack,” so as not to lose room for maneuver.

Observers believe that the swarm of drones that penetrated Polish airspace most likely came from Belarus, which borders Poland. At the time of the incident, Belarus was holding its annual joint exercise with Russia, code-named “West-2025.” The Belarusian Ministry of Defense said on the 10th that during the firefights between Ukraine and Russia, the Belarusian air defense forces continuously tracked drones that deviated from their routes due to the electronic warfare systems of both sides, and some had already been destroyed; the Belarusian side also took the initiative to inform Poland and Lithuania about unidentified drones approaching. If this explanation by Belarus can be confirmed by Poland and Lithuania, then the suspicion that Belarus and Russia deliberately “invaded” Poland via drones can be cleared.

However, in any case, the “drone intrusion” incident activated the tense emotions of the European Union and NATO. On the 10th, European Commission President von der Leyen announced plans to build the EU’s “Eastern Wing Monitoring” mechanism. On the 12th, the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who is also the commander of the U.S. European Command, Grynkiewicz, announced that he had ordered the launch of Operation “Eastern Sentinel.” NATO member states such as Denmark, France, the United Kingdom and Germany will contribute to this. The operation “will possess flexibility and acuity, providing more targeted deterrence and defense when and where necessary.”

The launch of Operation “Eastern Sentinel” is equivalent to triggering the Article 4 response mechanism of the North Atlantic Treaty, namely that when a NATO member faces a threat and issues a call for collective consultations, other members are obligated to respond actively. Therefore, this time NATO members reacted one after another in different ways, assisting Poland in strengthening its defense and deterring external threat factors. Although Article 4 still falls short of Article 5, which initiates collective defense, the consultations themselves will also aggravate the tension and confrontational posture on NATO’s eastern flank, intensifying the turbulence and unease in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

There is still no conclusive evidence showing that the “intruding drones” originated in Russia or Belarus, but this does not prevent the Polish government from seizing the opportunity to turn play-acting into reality and, by using force against force, hyping the external threat to raise Poland’s status in the EU and NATO, win more sympathy from the Western camp and rake in more benefits. At this stage when the truth of this incident remains “Rashomon”-like and unclear, Poland keeps crying “the wolf is coming,” and in the early hours of the 12th, on the grounds that the Russia-Belarus joint exercise endangered its own security, announced the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border and land links, thereby cutting off the major economic and trade artery connecting China and Europe — the China-Europe Railway Express, causing the two-way logistics of China-Europe trade to be suddenly and drastically obstructed, harming the interests of both sides.

On September 15, Nawrocki continued to add fuel to the tense situation, signing an order agreeing to the stationing of troops from NATO member states on Polish territory. The UK Ministry of Defence stated that NATO is implementing Operation “Eastern Sentinel,” integrating the military resources of multiple allies and strengthening the defensive posture on Europe’s eastern flank. That day, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sikorski further called for considering the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. As of the 18th, both France and the United Kingdom had announced the dispatch of fighter jets to Polish airspace to carry out air defense missions.

On September 16, Poland’s air defense forces tested the “Patriot” missile defense system for the first time near the northern town of Ustka. Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that this air defense drill was part of the “Steel Defender-25” military exercise and also a response to the Russia-Belarus joint exercise.

The Russia-Belarus defensive strategic-level joint exercise “West-2025,” held from September 12 to 16, was the final phase of the two countries’ regular annual training, and the exercise was carried out mainly at training grounds within the two countries and in the Baltic Sea and Barents Sea areas. The two sides mobilized a total of 100,000 military personnel, ten thousand sets of equipment, 333 aircraft and nearly 250 warships to participate. Six countries including Iran and India were also invited to send military personnel to take part in the joint training. Russia especially emphasized that this joint exercise was not aimed at any third country, and also invited U.S. officials and OSCE officials to attend as observers.

Even so, Poland, citing security, closed the border crossings between Poland and Belarus, cut off cross-border rail traffic, and deployed 40,000 troops at the border. On September 16, Poland’s Ministry of the Interior and Administration issued a statement saying that the Polish-Belarusian border would remain closed until further notice, emphasizing that this was based on a high degree of concern for the safety of Polish citizens, especially in connection with the Russia-Belarus joint exercise.

The two Polish government departments made it clear that the border closure was not just to cope with security issues during the (Russia-Belarus) exercise period, but that the border would not reopen until the security situation had fully recovered and the relevant service information had been confirmed. The statement noted that closing the border could cause a series of negative economic consequences, but that the government would strive to ease the difficulties faced by enterprises, and in particular would consult to minimize the economic impact of the closure on suppliers forced to use alternative transit points such as Lithuania.

Historically, the Kingdom of Poland was a major country in Central and Eastern Europe, with an area of 1.15 million square kilometers, including today’s homeland as well as Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. Beginning in 1772, after Poland was partitioned by the combined forces of Tsarist Russia, the Kingdom of Prussia and the Austrian Empire, it suffered three further carve-ups by powerful neighbors. Today’s territory of Poland can also be said to be an artificial remaking by the Soviet Union and Russia as a result of World War II and an overall westward shift of territory: its western part is prewar German territory, and its prewar eastern part has become today’s western Ukraine. Therefore, Poland’s tradition of hating and resenting Russia is deeply rooted. At the same time, because mutual massacres between Poles and Ukrainians occurred frequently in history, and even ethnic cleansing of each other during World War II, the positions of Poland’s government and people on the Russia-Ukraine conflict are delicate and complex.

Even so, based on a historical “anti-Russia hysteria,” and even more on the reality of interlinked interests of “when the lips are gone, the teeth feel cold,” Poland, after Russia launched the “special military operation,” took a clear stand on Ukraine’s side, playing the role of the eastern frontline state of the Western camp, especially the EU and NATO, greatly elevating its strategic status and voice. In addition, since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been unwilling to see European unity and integration, deliberately manufacturing splits and confrontation between old and new Europe, and has repeatedly courted Poland, which has a relatively large population, sufficient size, a special religious tradition, and a key geopolitical position, conferring on it the status of leader of “new Europe,” which has also fueled Poland’s “great-power complex” and its self-positioning as a bridgehead. The sudden outbreak and continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war have given Poland a rare opportunity to exert great-power energy.

In the more than three years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Poland has received and relayed countless Western leaders who went to Kyiv to display resolve and aid the war, has also delivered large quantities of military equipment and strategic supplies to Ukraine, and has signed a security cooperation agreement with it. Although Poland is not enthusiastic about Ukraine joining NATO, from a certain point of view Poland is the frontline country most deeply drawn into the Russia-Ukraine war, and thus can hardly avoid “when the city gate catches fire, the pond fish suffer” because of its two neighbors. The previous mistaken Ukrainian missile strike and this “drone intrusion” both belong to the price Poland has paid.

From a theoretical and logical perspective, the EU and NATO, including Poland, have become indirectly entangled with Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, and there is the possibility of escalation and expansion into a direct military showdown. Moreover, both sides are laying corresponding low-level groundwork. Against this background, whether batches of Russian-made drones broke into Poland from Russia or from Belarus, Russia and Belarus can hardly avoid falling under suspicion. Western observers believe that if the drones did not mistakenly enter due to interference but were precisely delivered, it cannot be ruled out that Russia and Belarus are thereby releasing a deterrent trial balloon, or probing and sounding out the air-defense systems of Poland and NATO’s eastern flank. Therefore Poland and its NATO allies are very nervous.

Seizing on the pretext of safeguarding national security, Poland has made a big deal of it, continuously adding weight to strengthen national defense and collective defense, highlighting its strategic role and status as a barrier on Europe and NATO’s eastern flank, raising its value within the Western camp, and increasing its bargaining chips for grabbing its own interests from EU or NATO members. When Nawrocki visited Germany on September 16, he demanded that Germany pay as much as 1.3 trillion euros in World War II reparations, in exchange for Poland playing a greater role on NATO’s eastern flank. In fact, the issue of German World War II reparations long ago became history in legal terms, but in the more than twenty years since the founding of Poland’s right-wing conservative Law and Justice Party, the governments or ruling coalitions it has led have always demanded huge compensation from Germany and have always been rejected by Germany. However, Nawrocki, who was helped into office by the Law and Justice Party, never forgets to “collect the debt” from Germany, especially at a juncture when a strategic crisis has appeared on NATO’s eastern flank.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Poland’s forward geopolitical weight in “defending Europe” has clearly increased, Germany has also increasingly shaken off the path of peace and returned to the road of strengthening the military, and has actively played the role of vanguard on NATO’s eastern flank. This situation has allowed the Polish government to take the opportunity to strike Germany for a big gain, handling in parallel two matters that have nothing to do with each other, World War II and the Russia-Ukraine war. This operation by Poland has objectively set itself as the hardest-pulling shaft horse on NATO’s war chariot, galloping forward to seize benefits, even at the cost of staking its own long-term interests and harming China-Europe and even China-Poland economic and trade ties; the historical suspension of the China-Europe Railway Express caused by the border closure is the proof.

It is learned that the China–Europe Railway Express is an important main artery of the logistics network connecting China and Europe, and Poland is its key node, undertaking about 30% of the carrying capacity. Ninety percent of the rail lines from China to Europe need to pass through Poland; in particular, ports such as Małaszewicze in Poland have long been the main channels for the China–Europe Railway Express to enter Europe. This closure of border crossings directly led to the interruption of the Polish segment of the China–Europe Railway Express, suspension of the trains, and a large amount of cargo being stranded. This sudden incident will have a serious impact on China’s international trade and logistics industry oriented toward Europe.

Whether by coincidence or as an emergency temporary arrangement, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and minister of foreign affairs, who had just concluded a seven-day tour of Europe at the end of June and beginning of July, once again visited Europe from September 12 to 16, focusing on three Central and Eastern European countries, Austria, Slovenia and Poland. When Wang Yi arrived in Warsaw, it was at the critical moment when the “drone intrusion” incident was fermenting to a peak and the China–Europe Railway Express had been cut off for the first time; therefore, on the 15th he held talks with Polish President Nawrocki and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sikorski, and presided over the fourth meeting of the China–Poland Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee, which attracted much attention.

Afterwards, Chinese official news did not mention whether the high-level China–Poland meetings focused on the interruption of the China–Europe Railway Express, but as one of the major outcomes of Wang Yi’s visit to Poland, the two sides issued the “Joint Document” of the fourth plenary meeting on intergovernmental cooperation. Article 7 of it emphasized: “The two sides exchanged views on the importance of developing an efficient and economically competitive Eurasian transport corridor and the key role played by Poland in it. The two sides recognized the benefits of providing mutually beneficial services in railway, maritime and air freight, as well as strengthening existing and potential transport lines and logistics chains, and are willing to jointly ensure the safe and smooth passage of the China–Europe Railway Express.”

The “drone intrusion” incident suddenly intensified the military tension and indirect confrontation between the European Union and NATO and Russia, and also elevated Poland to the position of a major player, with the security situation in Central and Eastern Europe suddenly tightening. However, by taking the opportunity to cut off the Poland–Belarus border, resulting in the complete interruption of the Polish section of the China–Europe Railway Express, Poland not only made China an innocent victim through no fault of its own, but also caused two-way damage to China–Europe economic and trade cooperation.

The most pressing task is for China to strengthen mediation as soon as possible, ease the geopolitical relations between the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Russia, and prompt Poland to restore and clear the blockage of the China–Europe Railway Express as soon as possible. In the long run, the geopolitical risks triggered by the prolonged continuation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, as well as the continuously increasing “long-arm jurisdiction” and “secondary sanctions” of the United States and Europe, are increasingly harming the interests of China as an outsider. Therefore, it is also necessary for China to step up efforts to promote talks and persuade toward peace, pushing this intra-European war and confrontation to turn toward dialogue and de-escalation as soon as possible.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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