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Qatar warns of global economic collapse as conflict with Iran intensifies

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Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad al-Kaabi, has warned that the ongoing conflict in West Asia could push global economies toward a precipice, according to comments made to the Financial Times.

Kaabi stated that while not all parties in the region have yet declared force majeure, QatarEnergy has taken that step.

Pointing out that other exporters in the Gulf might adopt similar measures should the conflict persist, Kaabi noted that he expects every exporter in the region to declare force majeure if the situation continues for several more days.

Operations suspended at Ras Laffan facilities

Following a drone strike by Iran on the Ras Laffan facility, Kaabi confirmed that operations at the hub for Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been disrupted. He stated that even if the conflict were to end immediately, it would take weeks or even months for Qatar to return to its normal shipment cycle.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG producer, was forced to declare force majeure this week following the attack.

Kaabi, who also serves as the CEO of QatarEnergy, emphasized that the company had no choice but to take this decision.

“We received intelligence from military units regarding an imminent threat to the facilities. We halted operations safely and evacuated approximately 9,000 personnel within 24 hours,” the minister said. “We cannot put our staff at risk while they are in a military zone under attack. Consequently, we declared force majeure.”

Cessation of conflict a prerequisite for production

Kaabi stated that production can only resume once the conflict has ended entirely. He noted that they are awaiting confirmation from the military that hostilities have fully ceased and that the facilities no longer face an imminent risk of attack.

This situation will also affect Qatar’s $30 billion North Field expansion project. The project, which aims to increase production capacity from 77 million tons to 126 million tons annually by 2027 and was scheduled to begin initial production in the third quarter, is now expected to face delays.

Oil prices projected to reach $150

Warning that a rise in energy prices is inevitable if the conflict drags on, Kaabi cautioned that if passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be secured, oil prices could reach $150 per barrel.

Ship traffic through the strait, which handles 20% of the world’s oil and gas, has effectively ceased following operations by the US and Israel against Iran. Reports indicate that at least 10 vessels have been attacked, insurance costs have surged, and shipowners are unwilling to expose their crews to the risk.

Kaabi stated that safe passage is currently unattainable due to the 24-mile-wide strait’s proximity to the Iranian coast. “Given the current nature of the attacks, sending vessels into the strait is extremely dangerous,” he said. “Iran is targeting military vessels, and shipowners see themselves as direct targets.”

He added that the proposal by US President Donald Trump for US naval escorts and supplementary insurance is insufficient to initiate safe passage.

Warning of a chain reaction in the global economy

Stating that the interruption in energy exports will affect not only energy markets but the global economy at large, Kaabi warned, “If the conflicts persist for a few more weeks, economic growth will contract worldwide.”

“Energy prices will rise, shortages will occur in certain products, and a chain reaction will ensue because factories cannot secure supply,” he said.

Kaabi emphasized that beyond energy, trade between the Gulf and the rest of the world could grind to a halt, creating serious repercussions for both Gulf economies and nations that trade with the region. The region accounts for a significant portion of global petrochemical production and fertilizer raw materials.

Logistical challenges to persist

Kaabi stated that while there is no damage to Qatar’s offshore energy facilities, the condition of the onshore facilities is still being assessed. He indicated that it is not yet clear how long the repair process will take.

The minister noted that even if production restarts, logistical challenges will persist. Kaabi reported that of Qatar’s fleet of 128 tankers, only six or seven are currently ready, emphasizing that loading each vessel takes one to two days and that capacity remains limited.

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Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks

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Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.

According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.

The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.

The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.

Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.

They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.

Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”

Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.

After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.

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Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts

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The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.

Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.

Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.

The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.

The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.

Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.

Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.

Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.

Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.

During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.

The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.

On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.

Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.

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Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets

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BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.

The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.

The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.

Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.

According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.

The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.

US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.

The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.

However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.

A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”

The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.

The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.

However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.

Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.

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