America
Quo Vadis World Economy – I: White Darkness at Davos
A gloomy mood marked this year’s meeting at the rich club Davos. Women were told to take care owing to the explosion of “sex tourism” in Davos, and many millionaires who advocated for vegetarianism and gender equality flew private planes to Switzerland.
Nevertheless, the atmosphere there was dark. Annually released around the time of the Davos Summit, the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risk Report presented shocking findings. We are expected to witness social and environmental crises; the cost of living is ranked as the most severe crisis, and “biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse” is viewed as one of the fastest deteriorating global risks.
Inflation could lead to stagflation, the socioeconomic consequences of which could be severe, given an unprecedented interaction with historically high public debt levels. Global economic fragmentation and geopolitical tensions could also contribute to widespread debt distress.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, the report went on to predict that technology would worsen inequality, food and fuel crises exacerbate societal vulnerabilities, and declining investments in human development erode future resilience.
Is there any cause for optimism in this dark scenario? For the WEF, there is.
‘Stakeholder capitalism’
“What kind of capitalism do we want?” was asked by Klaus Schwab, a WEF founder, in his 2019 Davos keynote.
Schwab thinks there are three models/answers to address the crisis.
The first is ‘shareholder capitalism,’ embraced by Western corporations. In this model, a corporation’s primary goal is to maximize its profits.
The second model is “state capitalism,” which entrusts the government with setting the economy’s direction and has risen to prominence in many emerging markets, not least China.
Third, of course, is the way Schwab also proposes, ‘stakeholder capitalism.’ In Schwab’s own words, it is a model he proposed half a century ago, positioning private companies as ‘trustees of society.’
The WEF founder argues that the single-minded focus on profits caused capitalism to become increasingly disconnected from the ‘real economy.’ This form of capitalism is no longer sustainable. Instead, large corporations must cultivate ‘stakeholder capitalism’ along with governments and multilateral organizations.
When discussing the transition from shareholder capitalism to stakeholder capitalism, Schwab emphasized the significance of the ‘Greta Thunberg effect.’ For him, the Swedish climate activist has reminded us that adherence to the current economic system represents a betrayal of future generations. Moreover, Generation Z no longer wants to work for, buy from, or invest in companies that lack values beyond ‘shareholder values.’
Now some facts
The WEF-painted bleak picture and its calls for ‘sustainable’ capitalism are close to the truth.
The 2022 Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse estimates that global wealth will have increased to $463.6 trillion by the end of 2021. This is almost 4.5 times the total worldwide output.
Furthermore, international wealth climbed by 9.8 percent in 2021, much higher than the average growth rate of 6.8 percent witnessed since the turn of the century.
Behind this enormous jump are rising real estate prices and stock market growth fueled by credit expansion. That is to say, a significant portion of the rise in wealth can be explained by the enrichment of the richer in the world.
Indeed, the report estimates that by 2020, a mere one percent of the global population (56 million individuals) possessed 45.8% of all wealth, while the other 2.9 billion owned just 1.3%. This ratio changed as follows in 2021: What one percent of the population now owns rose to 47.8 percent of all the wealth. The richest 13% has 86 percent of the total wealth.
According to the inequality report by Oxfam, just four cents in every dollar of tax revenue collected globally came from taxes on wealth.
Income tax collection from the wealthiest in OECD countries has decreased from 58 percent (in 1980) to 42 percent now.
This rate drops to 31 percent when the number of countries in the sample is expanded to 100. In the same sampling set, tax on capital income, one of the significant sources of wealth for the top 1%, has an average rate of just 18 percent. Only three countries have a higher tax rate on capital income than on wages.
International institutions are also pessimistic
The warnings of IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva before Davos are worth remembering. According to Georgieva, a third of the world will face a recession in 2023.
The OECD revised down the IMF’s forecast for global GDP growth from 2.7% to 2.2%. Arguing that the growth ‘has lost its momentum,’ the OECD noted that risks are skewed to the downside.
The World Bank went even further, projecting the global growth rate to be at 1.7 percent and growth in per capita income in all regions of the world to be lower than in the pre-COVID decade.
According to the World Bank, by the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below the levels expected before the pandemic.
In the WEF’s Chief Economists Outlook survey, economists are even more pessimistic. 18% of polled chief economists in public and private sectors said that experiencing a global recession this year is ‘extremely likely.’
One-third of economists expect a global recession and anticipate that the United States and Europe will maintain their tight monetary policies.
All surveyed chief economists predict Europe to grow ‘weakly or very weakly’ in 2023. For the US, 91% forecasted ‘weak or very weak growth.’
In last year’s survey, these rates were 86 percent (for Europe) and 64 percent (for the United States).
Nine out of ten respondents agreed that corporations would feel the effects of low demand and high financing costs. At the same time, six out of ten underscored the rising input prices. For these reasons, many chief economists expect multinational corporations to reduce operational costs to cut expenses.
Huge dismissals at tech giants
What the economists polled by the WEF thought about multinational corporations has taken place for a while.
Having seen exorbitant stock rises and announced huge profits during the pandemic, technology giants began to ‘update’ their operational expenses due to the severe drops in their balance sheets last year.
Expanding their workforces in tandem with the growth of online activities during the pandemic period, American multinational monopolies, such as Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft, started laying off employees as a primary measure against the shrinking industry.
The number of layoffs in the IT industry has reportedly reached 200,000 since the beginning of 2022, according to the website layoffs.fyi, which tracks releases in the technology sector.
In 2023, 67,268 people would have lost their jobs in this industry. About 51,000 people have been dismissed in the previous several weeks by Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google alone. The only giant in the industry that has not announced a layoff so far is Apple.
The tech monopolies, on the other hand, are wallowing in money. Recently, Microsoft announced its profit for 2022 Q3 as $16 billion. If federal regulators had not stepped in to block the deal, Microsoft would have acquired the video game producer Activision Blizzard last year for $69 billion.
Meta reported a profit of $4.4 billion in the third quarter of 2022, although reporting a 52% decrease compared to last year.
Amazon also announced a decline in profits, but the company still made almost $3 billion in the latest quarter.
Layoffs spread across all industries
However, Silicon Valley giants are not an exception in dismissals.
Software giant SAP of Germany has announced it would lay off 3,500 staff, while chemical conglomerate Dow will fire 2,000 workers. Executives at Dow have said that they will cut costs by $1 billion this year.
3M, another American multinational giant, will reduce its staff by 2,500 on the pretext of falling customer demand.
The toys company Hasbro will lay off 1,000 workers, equal to 15% of its current workforce.
10% of employees will be dismissed at Salesforce, 6% at Spotify, 11% at Vimeo, 3% at BlackRock, and 7% at Goldman Sachs.
In the following articles, I will focus on the situation in the USA and Europe.
America
Wealthy Americans drive surge in New Zealand golden visa demand
More than 700 wealthy foreign nationals have applied for New Zealand residency under the country’s “golden visa” programme over the past 14 months, compared with just 115 applications during the previous three years.
Applicants are required to invest at least NZ$5 million in local funds, companies or charitable organisations within three years.
A further 127 people have applied under a separate programme that requires an investment of NZ$10 million in passive assets such as bonds for five years.
The surge followed a relaxation of rules governing property purchases, investment requirements and the amount of time applicants must spend in the country to qualify.
According to the Financial Times (FT), the increase in applications for the right to live, work and study indefinitely in New Zealand has coincided with a period of geopolitical uncertainty that has made the country’s security and remote location increasingly attractive.
Dozens of countries around the world, from Portugal to the US, offer preferential immigration treatment in exchange for investment or, in some cases, cash payments.
Many have had mixed experiences with such schemes. Ireland, Malta and Australia have scrapped their programmes because of insufficient demand or concerns over abuse.
In New Zealand’s case, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon hopes the visas will attract more foreign investment and help reverse a “brain drain” that threatens the country’s economic growth.
Although tourists often fall in love with New Zealand and dream of moving there, many young New Zealanders leave in search of better economic opportunities.
According to Luxon, New Zealand start-ups have already begun benefiting from the policy.
“While everyone else around the world is tightening restrictions, we’ve opened the doors and our start-ups have benefited enormously from the capital flowing in, as well as from the knowledge and technical expertise these investors have brought,” he said.
Since the programme was comprehensively overhauled in April 2025, applicants from North America, Europe and Asia have committed a combined NZ$4.8 billion, through investments of either NZ$5 million or NZ$10 million each.
That figure is comparable to the NZ$14.8 billion in foreign investment recorded during the first quarter of this year.
Lachlan Nixon, co-founder of venture capital firm Motion Capital, said the programme had become “a badge of honour in Silicon Valley”.
Data show that 277 applications have come from Americans, with Californians showing particularly strong interest in obtaining New Zealand residency.
“A massive influx of capital is coming, but what really matters is the quality of the people now investing in the New Zealand economy,” Nixon said. He added that 40% of a recent NZ$27 million fundraising round for high-growth New Zealand companies came from 30 holders of “golden visas”.
According to Luxon, companies benefiting from the programme include critical minerals firm Zethos, which appointed European steel industry veteran Francesc Rubiralta to its board.
Nixon said other companies backed under the programme include seed oil protein producer Miruku and magnesium mining company Aspiring Materials.
In the mountain town of Queenstown, a preferred destination for many applicants, locals refer to billionaires such as Peter Thiel and Anthony Malkin, whose foundation owns New York’s Empire State Building, as “the secret residents on the hills”.
Most prefer to keep their wealth and presence private. Thiel’s citizenship was inadvertently revealed during a parliamentary debate, while Malkin’s presence became public after fireworks he set off on New Year’s Eve sparked grass fires.
According to Cotality, their arrival has made Queenstown New Zealand’s most expensive property market, with a median home price of NZ$1.8 million, double the national average.
Under the visa programme’s rules, participants may purchase only residential properties worth more than NZ$5 million, a provision designed to prevent their presence from distorting the broader housing market.
“There are a lot of billionaires here. They just wear gumboots,” one property adviser said.
However, doubts remain about the programme’s benefits. Sam Stubbs, chief executive of pension fund Simplicity, said people should make “genuine investments” in the country rather than seek special treatment in exchange for “a small amount of money” invested in a venture capital fund.
“Heaven comes at a price. It’s a price we all pay,” Stubbs said.
Some applicants have also voiced concerns. Courtney Andelman, who runs a venture capital fund in Santa Barbara with her husband Jim, successfully obtained a visa last year and now visits New Zealand regularly.
“There’s something magical in the air and the water. It’s an incredibly healthy place,” Andelman said.
However, she said she wanted to settle in a smaller South Island city such as Nelson, where her investments could have a greater impact, but found very few properties worth more than NZ$5 million.
She also complained that under New Zealand’s tax rules, if her family spends more than 183 days a year in the country, their worldwide income becomes subject to New Zealand taxation.
Andelman said she loved New Zealand but expressed concern and issued an implicit warning.
“How to make every dollar achieve its highest and best use is a question we constantly ask ourselves. If New Zealand doesn’t offer the best value, we’ll go somewhere else. Every one of those dollars is mobile.”
America
Oil industry lobbies White House to avert potential Trump export ban
Oil industry executives and White House officials are engaging in a new push to prevent any move by the administration to restrict US oil exports.
According to a report by Politico, industry representatives say these efforts extend to the White House Domestic Policy Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, the Department of Energy, and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Trump believes that oil prices could harm the Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress in the November mid-term elections.
“Everyone from the industry and within the administration is working hand in hand to prevent this,” an energy industry executive said.
The individual added that White House officials had not formally raised the idea, “but everyone knows Trump will act like Trump again.”
The White House maintains that export restrictions are not on the agenda.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement: “While the President and the entire energy team are taking various measures to mitigate temporary disruptions in the energy market, the administration has been very clear: there is no plan to impose restrictions on oil and gas exports.”
White House representatives did not confirm whether industry lobbyists had approached specific agencies or officials to discuss the export issue. Department of Energy representatives did not respond to queries.
However, although administration officials have guaranteed since the early days of the Iranian war that an export ban was off the table, Trump’s directive to the Department of Justice in June to investigate oil companies on charges of price gouging put the sector on high alert.
Concerns within the industry mounted after Trump stated on Monday that oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron were making “too much money.”
Industry executives now fear Trump may try to make a move against them by restricting fuel export activities abroad, which have boomed since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Another industry official said the sector had reiterated its concerns regarding export controls to the White House “very recently.”
The Trump administration has already tried several different approaches to lower prices that enjoy broader support from the oil industry.
These include the release of millions of barrels of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserve and the temporary suspension of the Jones Act to make it easier for non-American vessels to transport oil and natural gas between US ports.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil company CEO, and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly opposed the idea of limiting or banning exports.
Wright stated in May that the administration had “definitely” ruled out the option of banning diesel exports.
Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said he was “confident” Trump understood the need to maintain oil exports, recalling that early in the crisis, the president had encouraged other countries to buy American oil:
“The administration has repeatedly expressed that they are opposed to [export controls]. Therefore, I do not think there is any change in their stance at the moment. Frankly, it feels as though we have to clarify this issue every three weeks.”
In a note sent to clients on Tuesday, consultancy firm ClearView Energy stated that the moment for the White House to take a step toward limiting fuel exports “might be approaching.”
The firm noted that former President Joe Biden had considered imposing export restrictions ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections following a “long summer of high petrol prices” caused by the war in Ukraine.
US crude oil exports increased by approximately 30% compared with last year, reaching nearly 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of July.
Shipments of refined products such as diesel, petrol, and other types of oil rose by 20%, exceeding 8 million barrels per day.
Opponents of exports argue that sending these cargoes abroad leads to rising prices domestically.
However, the oil and gas industry contends that closing the door to exports would harm the domestic market and cause their production to decline.
“Export bans may seem politically attractive, but ultimately they will lead to the exact opposite of the intended effect,” said a refining industry lobbyist who noted they were in contact with the White House on the matter, arguing that cutting off American exports from international markets would mean “a decline in US production, supply shortages, further upward pressure on domestic prices, and even greater disruptions in the global market.”
Chet Thompson, president and CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, stated that export controls would force US refiners to produce less petrol because they would lose commercial channels to ship other surplus fuels, such as diesel, produced during the process.
America
US and Ukraine restore intelligence sharing to former levels
Three US senators have reported that intelligence sharing between Washington and Kyiv has reached its former level. The White House declined to disclose details of the current intelligence relationship, emphasizing that President Donald Trump remains focused on ending the conflict.
American senators reported that intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine has returned to its previous level.
According to a report by Politico, the senators offering this assessment include Democratic Senator Mark Warner, a long-standing advocate for increasing aid to Ukraine.
Commenting on the matter, Warner said: “I don’t want to get into details, but things have improved.” Republican senators John Cornyn and Roger Wicker stated that information sharing has accelerated during a period of “strategic importance”.
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine also noted that he has observed signs of a revival in information sharing between the US and Ukraine.
The White House did not disclose details regarding the current state of its intelligence-sharing relationship with Ukraine. However, in comments to Politico, it emphasized that US President Donald Trump is focused on contributing to the termination of the conflict.
A White House official told Politico: “The President and his team remain committed to playing a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and remain optimistic that we will ultimately reach a peace agreement.”
Last autumn, the Financial Times reported that Trump had issued instructions to prepare for sharing intelligence data that could assist Ukraine in conducting strikes deep inside Russian territory.
Russian authorities are demanding that Western nations cease providing military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that such assistance will not prevent Moscow from achieving its military campaign objectives.
Last year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested that the US side clarify information regarding the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine.
According to statements from the Kremlin, Russia has long been aware that the US and NATO countries collect intelligence and transfer it to the Ukrainian military, noting that this is “not a new development”.
Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will not tolerate attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will continue to respond forcefully.
In June, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is prepared to conduct negotiations with Ukraine on the basis of the agreements reached in Istanbul.
According to Putin, the parties must also take into account the agreements reached between Moscow and Washington in Anchorage, the situation on the front line, and the conditions for a settlement previously set out by Russia.
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