Middle East
Report reveals intelligence failures in October 7 Hamas attack
The Israeli military’s first military report on the October 7, 2023, attacks revealed that Israeli security officials misjudged the Hamas-led attack and grossly underestimated the group’s capabilities. According to the report, Hamas’ intentions were not correctly interpreted even hours before the attack.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the report stated that there were many indications that the attack was imminent, but these were not taken seriously enough by the Israeli authorities. On the evening of October 6, 2023, Hamas militants activated Israeli SIM cards and moved to designated assembly points, but the Israeli authorities did not consider these actions as unusual. The authorities believed that Hamas was either conducting a military exercise, preparing to defend against an attack from Israel, or planning small-scale cross-border raids. However, these signs were ignored as clear signals that Hamas was preparing a large-scale attack.
The report, prepared as a result of the highest-level investigation by the Israeli army, sheds light on one of the biggest security weaknesses in the country’s history. The report stated that Israeli intelligence units misjudged Hamas, ignored documents containing the group’s attack plans, and missed numerous signals. It was emphasized that these intelligence failures triggered the attacks that continued for more than a year after the attack.
Just a few hours before the attack, senior Israeli military officials held discussions about suspicious Hamas activity. However, the urgency of the attack was not recognized. Herzi Halevi, Chief of the Israeli General Staff, ordered a more extensive briefing the following day. That same night, the Israeli general on the northern front was summoned to military headquarters in Tel Aviv in anticipation of an attack by Hezbollah. The Israeli army’s focus on the northern front caused it to lose sight of the threat in Gaza. Hamas took advantage of the Jewish holiday to launch the attack at a time when the border was less guarded than usual.
According to the report, Israeli military planners, when designing a possible attack scenario from Gaza, envisaged that Hamas would at most try to cross between 4 and 8 border points. However, Hamas militants crossed the border at almost 60 points. Their first target was the Israeli military base responsible for the perimeter of the Gaza Strip. Here, they killed senior commanders and destroyed Israel’s intelligence capacity in the area. This left Israel unable to follow developments on the ground in the first three hours of the offensive. 1,200 Israeli soldiers and civilians lost their lives, and 251 were taken hostage. The first reinforcements did not arrive until 5.5 hours later, and it took three days for Hamas to be completely repelled.
According to The Times of Israel, the investigation found that although the Israeli military intercepted plans detailing a possible attack in 2022, it considered it unlikely and that former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar did not think that an attack would be carried out because he was “pragmatic.”
The report found that Hamas approved this attack plan in 2019, received operational approval in 2021, and began setting a date for the attack in 2022. Despite this, the Israeli authorities stuck to the idea that Hamas did not want to start a war. Israeli intelligence failed to recognize this strategic shift, believing that Hamas was focused on building a state in Gaza and seizing the West Bank.
Hamas saw the political turmoil inside Israel and the protests over judicial reforms as an opportunity. At the height of the attack, Hamas’ military leader, Mohammed Deif, called on the entire population of Gaza to take up arms and attack Israel. By midday on October 7, more than 5,600 militants and civilians had crossed into Israeli territory.
The attack began at 6:29 a.m. when Hamas fired 1,400 rockets into Israel. At 6:45 a.m., an Israeli brigade commander radioed, “We are at war.” However, Israel did not fully understand the situation on the ground in the first hours due to the collapse of the chain of command. Some soldiers and commanders saw news of the attack on social media and traveled to the southern front by their own means. However, large-scale military reinforcements arrived hours later.
Reporting on the report, The Jerusalem Post reported that on October 7, the Israeli Air Force implemented the Hannibal Protocol. The report mentioned that over 5,000 Hamas members had entered Israel from Gaza and that there was concern that many more Gazans could infiltrate into Israel.
According to the Israeli Air Force investigation, following the decision to implement the Hannibal Protocol, the pilots received “highly specific information about where and what to attack.”
Hamas Used Elements of “Deception”
According to Yedioth Ahronoth’s report on the investigation, Israel’s biggest mistake was to believe that Hamas was incapable of waging a large-scale war. “Israel is superior to its enemies” and “the intelligence directorate knows everything,” while Hamas used elements of “deception” to support this perception.
Israel Army Radio reported that investigations showed that the Israeli army was surprised by the speed and planning of the October 7 attack.
Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, whose term of office ends on March 6, said at the meeting where the investigations were presented, “I am responsible. On October 7, I was the commander of the army, and I am also responsible for you.” He reiterated that the responsibility lies with him.
Halevi stated that they had failed and that he tried to face failure every day.
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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