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Revival of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan

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The presence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban has become one of the controversial issues, where the world wants the Taliban to cut its ties with them.

In the latest case, the media has reported, quoting two US officials that the revival of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan seems unlikely. According to the report, in a meeting with journalists, these two US officials presented an optimistic picture of the weakening of terrorist groups to show that despite the country’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the presence of rebel groups is decreasing.

In the report, US officials said that the threat of al-Qaeda has reached its lowest level in recent decades, but Washington maintains the ability to track terrorist threats in Afghanistan.

At the same time, the United Nations had pointed to the widespread influence of al-Qaeda members in the Taliban structure, emphasizing that this network uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center”.

However, security analysts consider the weakening of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to be a “fabricated assessment of terrorism to justify US policies.”

Is al-Qaeda able to revive itself

It has been reported that two US officials said that it seems unlikely that al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be able to revive itself. In the report, they presented an optimistic picture of the weakening of terrorist groups in Afghanistan to show that despite the withdrawal of the US troops, the presence of insurgent groups in this country is decreasing.

The two US officials also claimed that after the country’s drone attack in Kabul in August 2022, which led to the death of al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, this group has been left without “leadership aptitude and strategic guidance”.

The report states that since the “tumultuous” withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the US has shifted its intelligence activities from anti-terrorism priorities to China and Russia. According to the report, the Biden administration has emphasized that it has maintained its capabilities to track threats from terrorism in Afghanistan.

US, the Islamic State and Middle East

However, some US officials have secretly raised concerns that by moving US intelligence assets from the Middle East and South Asia, the Biden administration may be able to track down the threat posed by IS operating in uncontrolled areas in Syria and elsewhere.

It has been said that the threat of the IS branch of Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan is still standing and this group has continued its attacks in the country. After the return of the Taliban to power in August 2021, the IS-K carried out its first attack on the Kabul International Airport, as a result of which dozens of people, including 13 US soldiers, were killed and many more were injured.

IS-K also attacked the embassies of Russia and Pakistan, a hotel popular with Chinese guests and the Kabul airfield, which targeted the Taliban.

According to the report, one of the US officials, concerned about the threat of IS, said that this threat is different from what al-Qaeda did on September 11, 2001.

IS is under increasing pressure

These US officials have said that their information shows that IS is under increasing pressure from the Taliban and that many of its key leaders have left Afghanistan in recent months. In the report, however, it is stated that IS continues to pose an important threat inside Afghanistan and the regional countries are concerned about the capacity of the group’s overseas operations.

It has also reported that the assessments of the US in downplaying the resurgence of terrorism seem to contradict the report published in June of this year by the United Nations sanctions monitoring team. The UN report states: “al-Qaeda is in the process of reorganization and is creating new educational facilities in Kunar and Nuristan, Afghanistan.”

The activities of the al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan are going on secretly and the members of this network are predominantly present in the judicial, security and other government departments under the Taliban management.

Taliban and the al-Qaeda’s friendship

The report also emphasized that al-Qaeda uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center” to mobilize new fighters and recruit them in line with its extremist policies.

This home is believed to be the residence of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. He was killed by a US drone attack in downtown Kabul city on August 2, 2022.

Recently, Ruslan Sisembayev, deputy of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan, has considered the presence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as a potential threat to the region. He expressed this at the 40th meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council. He furthered that the number of fighters of this network in Afghanistan has reached to 500. Meanwhile, the United Nations has announced that there are 400 to 600 al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda leaders have time and again showed that they will not leave Afghanistan under any circumstances. This group has always emphasized on maintaining its relations with the Taliban.

Also, not long ago Abdul Kabir, the political deputy of the Taliban prime minister, said that Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban group, did not want Osama bin-Laden, the leader of the al-Qaeda network, to be handed over to the US. He said that “he did not leave behind the shame of handing over a Muslim to the infidels.”

US can’t justify its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan

After the US officials’ statements regarding the weakening of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, a number of security analysts believe that the US officials made these statements to justify their disastrous withdrawal from the country. According to them, on the eve of the presidential election, the Biden administration is seeking to reduce the pressure and manage the minds of the voters of this country by showing the reduction of al-Qaeda activities.

Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of National Directorate of Security (NDS) had al-Qaeda active in Afghanistan and this is a great threat to the safety of the region.

Samid Samadi, a political pundit said that beside al-Qaeda, the IS-K is very dangerous for the world and blamed western countries for supporting the group.

Samadi emphasized that the intelligence services of the countries of the region and the world are active and powerful in Afghanistan. He accused the US and Pakistan of supporting IS. Samadi says that Islamabad uses IS instrumentally and commercially, and if the war in Ukraine ends in Moscow’s favor, the “IS project” in Afghanistan will be further strengthened.

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China launches global tax audit on super-rich to recover billions

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China has launched a global crackdown on its super-rich to collect hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes dating back decades, seeking to narrow income and wealth inequality and close a deepening budget deficit.

Authorities have intensified their scrutiny of overseas capital gains and investments, with investigations extending in some instances as far back as 2000. The campaign comes as Beijing attempts to significantly expand its oversight of outbound capital flows.

According to foreign officials, Chinese bankers, and family office executives who spoke to the Financial Times, Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been instructed to review the overseas investments of wealthy Chinese nationals and check whether the resulting income has been declared to tax authorities in Beijing.

The efforts, which form part of sweeping tax reforms targeting the country’s wealthy elite and offshore trusts, focus on gains derived from the acquisition of assets such as real estate, equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies.

Numerous officials, bankers, and advisers confirmed the retrospective nature of the campaign, noting that inquiries cover periods reaching back more than 25 years in certain cases.

A banker in southern China said that in recent months, Chinese banks have increasingly coordinated with tax authorities to freeze the accounts of wealthy clients until officials are satisfied that taxes on capital gains from overseas assets, accounts, and trusts have been paid.

“In standard practice, these wealthy individuals immediately pay the penalties and taxes in cash to get their accounts unfrozen,” the banker said.

The timeframes examined in the tax audits appear to vary significantly. For instance, an executive at a Shenzhen-based family office said clients were asked to pay taxes on gains generated from overseas assets between 2017 and 2022. No explanation was provided as to why that specific period was targeted.

Victor Shih, a professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, San Diego, said the motivation behind the new campaign was “clearly rooted in fiscal reasons.”

China’s fiscal revenues, where taxes plug a critical gap, have largely stagnated since the pandemic and contracted by 1.7% in 2025 to 21.6 trillion yuan, or $3.2 trillion. Total public revenue from land sales, once a primary source of state income, fell to 4.15 trillion yuan following a real estate market downturn, down from a peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021.

Last month, China also enacted comprehensive tax rules governing assets transferred to offshore trusts. According to a joint statement by China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, the regulation closed a legal loophole long utilized by wealthy individuals to protect their assets abroad.

Under the new rules, income generated from offshore trusts will be subject to a 20% tax across multiple stages.

A Singapore-based banker who manages overseas assets for wealthy Chinese nationals said the offshore trust tax “shocked” clients.

“There are people who established trusts for public assets, such as shares in listed companies. During periods when initial public offerings were very common, holding the right trust structure provided protection regarding income tax. This new decision has eliminated that advantage,” the banker said.

While experts suggest that some complex overseas structures may evade the new rules, many trust holders are expected to face a one-off tax liability. Reports indicate that some may be forced to sell assets to meet the payments.

Together with other tax reforms, the new policies will align China’s taxation system more closely with that of the US, where American taxpayers are generally taxed on their worldwide income.

Ye Yongqing, a Shanghai-based tax lawyer and partner at Anli Partners, said, “Regulatory bodies have steadily tightened oversight of cross-border capital flows, declarations of overseas income, and foreign exchange transactions. Consequently, the scope for wealthy Chinese to transfer assets abroad or structure their tax affairs through offshore vehicles has narrowed.”

Ye noted that Beijing has adopted a restrictive approach toward offshore trusts similar to US tax legislation, broadly rejecting attempts by taxpayers to use these vehicles to defer or entirely eliminate tax.

There are also indications that stricter tax collection from China’s wealthy has yielded results in recent years. Official data shows that personal income tax revenues rose 11.5% in 2025, driven by the impact of previous campaigns, including the taxation of Hong Kong stock transactions. This growth rate significantly outpaced the 0.8% expansion in overall tax revenues.

An executive at an immigration firm with offices in China and New York said authorities initially targeted wealthy Chinese trading US equities via Hong Kong or other overseas channels.

The executive said the inquiries are expected to expand next to individuals holding substantial financial assets in overseas bank accounts, particularly in Hong Kong, and ultimately to other forms of offshore wealth, including real estate.

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Japan links defense buildup to economic growth in annual white paper amid regional threats

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Japan’s government is framing its accelerating military buildup not only as a means of national defense, but also as a pathway to greater prosperity, with its latest defense white paper asserting that arms production can stimulate economic growth.

The document, an annual assessment of alleged threats posed by neighboring countries China, Russia, and North Korea, calls on Japan—long constrained by post-war limits on military activity—to leverage technology, fund ventures, and incorporate a higher proportion of commercial components into weapons manufacturing.

According to a Defense Ministry presentation document, the white paper “emphasizes that defense investments benefit the overall economy and the lives of the public.” That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy of utilizing broader strategic public spending to drive economic growth.

This approach is reflected in the document’s anime-style cover image. Departing from the soldiers, weaponry, and military insignia featured in many previous editions, the cover depicts a smiling family set against a glowing futuristic cityscape. A Defense Ministry official said the design was intended to convey a “futuristic image.”

The explicit link drawn between defense and future prosperity coincides with the Takaichi administration’s drafting of a new national security strategy. Military analysts anticipate that the strategy will outline further spending increases designed primarily to deter China.

“China’s military activities and other actions are a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community, representing the greatest strategic challenge facing Japan,” the white paper states.

Remarks by Takaichi in November indicating that Japan would act militarily in the event of a potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan drew a sharp reaction from Beijing. China termed the statement “extremely grave” and demanded its retraction.

Tokyo has assembled a financing package combining tax increases, spending reforms, and one-off revenues to fund Japan’s largest military buildup since World War II, raising defense-related spending to 2% of gross domestic product. However, Takaichi has yet to clearly articulate how additional military expansion will be funded without imposing further strain on already heavily burdened public finances.

The Takaichi government secured approval for a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for the fiscal year ending in March 2027. An additional 3.1 trillion yen package was later added to shield households and businesses from rising energy costs, underscoring the competing demands placed on public resources.

To date, the bulk of the new defense spending has been directed toward missiles capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 1,000 kilometers. A significant portion of future spending increases is expected to be allocated to uncrewed aerial vehicles and other uncrewed weapons systems of the type deployed extensively by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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