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Russia and Ukraine prepare for fierce war in spring

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In the Donbas regions of Solidar and Bahamut, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine intensified. The Solidar-Bahmut line is deemed “crucial” for Ukraine’s defense. Despite contradictory statements from the parties regarding the most current situation at the front, it is evident that the fighting sides are gearing up for a major clash in the spring.

The frontal combat became more intense in East Ukraine. Russia is preparing for the next stage by making new appointments and buildups at the tactical and administrative levels. Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeking to expand its supply from the West to include strategic strikes.

“The present situation in the field is similar to the war of position,” concluded Assoc. Prof. Ali Fuat Gökçe of Gaziantep University, “It’s stuck in certain spots. There are wars of position.” “Russia is preparing for spring, and Ukraine is as well. It’s an attempt to make up for material deficiencies. At this point, the parties are in the recovery phase,” Gökçe stated.

According to Gökçe, the Western side is divided for the course of the war, and “violent clashes starting in March” are likely unless something unusual in conditions happens.

“The United States seeks a passive Russia in the Pacific”

“The US wants the war to continue against the will of Continental Europe. This is straightforward and evident,” said Gökçe and went on to note that the USA acted with a similar approach during World War II. “The USA has used that in the past as well. In World War II, Germany was the enemy of the USA. However, the United States waited for the Soviet Union to wear down Germany before deciding to join the conflict,” he remarked.

Underscoring that the United States is still using the “Ukraine depleting Russia” strategy, Gökçe argues that Washington wants the war to continue to “make Russia compatible with itself.”

According to Gökçe, the strategic calculation here is in line with the USA’s Asia-Pacific policy, which advocates that “Russia should be weakened not to meddle into the Pacific region” and “for this, the USA employs Ukraine and wants the war to continue.”

“Belarus’s entry into the all-out war is against Russia”

Western media outlets often speculate that the Belarusian armed forces may be involved in the war. It would not be beneficial for Belarus to go to war,” Skeptical of its possibility, Ali Fuat Gökçe stated, “It would not be good for Belarus to enter into the war. Not for Russia either. But Russia can make use of Belarusian territory.”

For Gökçe, “Belarusian territory may be of Russian use, but the Belarusian army cannot be employed,” and he uses the map above to illustrate his point with historical examples. Accordingly, the situation is as follows:

In 1812, Napoleon led his army to Moscow by following the blue line on the map. Following the path of the red arrows, Hitler attempted to invade Russia and occupy Moscow during World War II. The Baltic Sea and the vast plains north of the Carpathian Mountains are shown in black along the north-south axis. Stating that this line has an important place in Russia’s historical memory, Ali Fuat Gökçe claims that Russia is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO to defend this line.

After this point, the north of the Carpathians and the lands of Belarus, that is, the large plains opening to Moscow, may develop into a conflict region, and Russia does not want this, according to Gökçe, who says, “If Belarus joins a total war, that will lay a foundation for NATO to attack Belarus.” said Gökçe and emphasized that after this point, the north of the Carpathians and the lands of Belarus, the large plains opening to Moscow, may develop into a conflict region, and it would not be a case Russia is willing to counter.

According to Gökçe, Moscow is not aiming to conquer all of Ukraine but rather is angling for a change of leadership in Kyiv. Targeting critical infrastructure, Russia is seeking internal turmoil in Ukraine that can create a crisis over basic needs like power, water, and heating, Gökçe said and added, to make a firm forecast about the course of the war, the atmosphere is highly unpredictable.

RUSSIA

Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok will revive, Deripaska says

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One of Russia’s wealthiest men, Oleg Deripaska, announced his belief that the project to create a unified economic zone between Russia and Europe, stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, will be revived.

In a statement on his Telegram channel, Deripaska noted that this project would exclude Britain.

Deripaska stated, “The inevitable rapprochement after the conflict between Russia and Germany will completely change the political map of the European continent and lead to the revival of the project to create an economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok. This situation, along with Scotland’s secession from the United Kingdom, will definitively bury the British Empire in history.”

Deripaska stated that Britain’s problems have been accumulating for years, chief among them being “the virtual bankruptcy of public finances” and the complete failure of Brexit hopes.

Deripaska added, “No one came up with the dream of creating a Singapore on the Thames, and there was no desire for it in a society full of leftist ideas and not inclined to meticulous work.”

Deripaska assessed, “The collapse of the legal system and the terrible incompetence of judges in London have virtually destroyed the investment environment, and tax changes for foreigners have completely finished this situation.”

“But the worst is yet to come,” said Deripaska, adding, “All we have to do is wait and ignore the audacious ideas like ‘boots on the field.’ Let them crow a little.”

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Ukraine retreats from most occupied areas in Russia’s Kursk oblast

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According to military analysts and soldiers who spoke to The New York Times (NYT), the Ukrainian army has withdrawn from almost all of the territory it occupied in Russia’s Kursk oblast.

As a result of Moscow’s counterattacks, Ukraine’s months-long operation to seize and occupy Russian territory is nearing its end.

At the peak of the offensive, the Ukrainian army controlled approximately 1,295 square kilometers of Russian territory.

According to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, as of Sunday, the Ukrainian army was trying to hold on to a narrow area of approximately 78 square kilometers along the Russia-Ukraine border.

“The end of the war is coming,” Paroinen told the newspaper.

While the amount of Russian territory under Ukrainian control could not be independently verified, intense fighting was reported in the region.

With Russia’s rapid advance, supported by continuous air strikes and drone attacks, the Ukrainian army withdrew last week from several villages in Kursk oblast and from Sudzha, the main city they controlled.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that the troops had withdrawn to more defensible areas inside Russia and were taking advantage of the rugged terrain to provide better fire control against the approaching Russian forces.

On Sunday, it published a map showing the narrow area that Ukraine still controlled in Kursk oblast.

However, it remains unclear how long the Ukrainian army will be able to hold this area.

Ukrainian soldiers stated that the ongoing fighting in Kursk is no longer about holding Russian territory, but rather about controlling the best defensive positions to prevent the Russians from entering Ukraine’s Sumy oblast and opening a new front in the war.

An assault company commander, who identified himself only by his radio code, Boroda, said in a telephone interview, “We continue to maintain our positions on the Kursk front,” and added: “The only difference is that our positions have moved significantly closer to the border.”

Military experts say that although Ukraine’s withdrawal from most of Kursk oblast was rapid, it came after months of Russian attacks and bombardment that gradually weakened Ukraine’s foothold in the region and cut off supply routes, eventually making withdrawal necessary.

Austrian military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, who visited Ukraine’s Sumy oblast on the Kursk border last month and met with Ukrainian commanders, said, “What has happened in the last few months was an operation that prepared the conditions for a successful advance.”

Serhiy Kuzan, the head of the non-governmental organization Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, said, “There was no danger of encirclement of Ukrainian troops, and there is no evidence to the contrary.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s special representative for the Middle East and also a mediator with Russia, Steve Witkoff, told CNN on Sunday that he expected Trump to meet with Putin this week.

Witkoff said he had a positive three-to-four-hour meeting with Putin last week. While refraining from sharing the details of their discussions, Witkoff expressed his continued optimism that an agreement could still be reached.

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Kremlin rejects temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, seeks long-term solution

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Yuri Ushakov, aide to the President of Russia, stated that Moscow is interested in a long-term resolution to the war in Ukraine and does not want a temporary ceasefire.

In an interview with Rossiya-1 television, Ushakov said, “We believe that our goal is a long-term peaceful solution; we are trying to achieve this. We want a peaceful solution that takes into account the legitimate interests and known concerns of our country. I think that steps imitating peace actions will not benefit anyone in this situation.”

Ushakov also mentioned that he conveyed Moscow’s position on this issue to US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.

“Of course, I interpreted the agreements on the temporary ceasefire and stated our position that this is nothing more than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian army,” he added.

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