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MIDDLE EAST

SNA enters Manbij as Israel enters Sheikh Mountain

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The Turkish-backed FSA, known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), captured Manbij, which is occupied by the U.S.-backed PKK/YPG. Meanwhile, the Israeli army mobilized to take full control of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights.

The lightning advance of the organization’s led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and their entry into the capital Damascus was one of the most important turning points in the Middle East in decades.

There have been reports of looting as well as celebrations following the departure of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Organizations are releasing prisoners from Syrian jails.

But while hopes for a relatively ‘bloodless’ transition have been raised in the capital with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali’s declaration that he is ready to ‘cooperate’ with any popularly elected leader and ‘hand over’ power, military mobilization continues in the north and south of the country.

This morning the SNA, backed by Turkey, advanced from the town of Ureyme to the west of Manbij and the village of Um Dadat to the north, as well as from the northern and western lines of the town, driving the PKK/YPG out of the area. The YPG thus lost its main stronghold west of the Euphrates. Search and sweep operations for mines and booby traps are reportedly underway in the area.

On the first day of the operation, launched on 1 December, the SNA pushed the PKK/YPG out of Tel Rifaat district center.

West of the Euphrates, Arab tribes from Deir ez-Zor began to push back the PKK/YPG. The tribes expelled the PKK/YPG from the Albukamal and Mayadeen neighborhoods on the Iraqi-Syrian border in Deir ez-Zor. The terrorist organization had entered these areas after the withdrawal of the Syrian army.

Israel seizes the opportunity

Meanwhile, in southern Syria, Israel has entered Sheikh Mountain on the Syrian side of the occupied Golan Heights. Israeli aircraft continue to strike targets in Syria.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar gave the press an assessment of the agenda, particularly the developments in Syria.

Sa’ar, who tried to legitimize the Israeli army’s attacks on Syria, made the following statements Our only interest is the security of Israel and its citizens. That is why we attacked strategic weapons systems, such as chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets, which remain ‘so that they do not fall into the hands of extremists’.

Sa’ar claimed that the Israeli army’s seizure of the buffer zone in the occupied Golan Heights, under the pretext of developments in Syria, was a ‘limited and temporary step’.

Saar also expressed his dissatisfaction with the SDF’s operation against the terrorist organization in Manbij, demanding that this operation be ‘stopped’.

Saar stated that they had discussed the operation organized in Manbij with many countries, especially the U.S.

The Israeli minister claimed that the international community has an obligation towards the PKK/YPG terrorist organization, which he said ‘ensures stability’ in Syria.

Turkey, U.S. in full engagement

On the other hand, a U.S. official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said Turkey and the U.S. were in full engagement in the process.

In this context, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Bill Burns and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held meetings with their Turkish counterparts, the official said, adding that these meetings had constructive effects.

On U.S. relations with HTS, the official said it was clear that the group would play an important role in the Syrian transition.

The official stated that the U.S. relationship with HTS will be conducted in an appropriate manner by putting ‘U.S. interests’ first, noting that it will be important to see how the rhetoric of HTS officials is translated into action.

In addition, U.S. President Joe Biden, assessing the collapse of the Syrian government, said that this development was ‘a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel dealt’ to Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah ‘with the unstinting support of the United States’.

“For many years, Assad’s main supporters have been Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, but in the last week that support has collapsed because all three are in a much weaker position than when I took over,” Biden said at a press conference on developments in Syria. Biden argued that Iran had been weakened by U.S. and Israeli strikes, and Russia by Ukraine’s strong stance, so that these countries no longer had the power to support the ‘terrible Assad regime’.

Our approach has changed the balance of power in the Middle East through a combination of support for our partners, sanctions and diplomacy, and targeted military force when necessary. Now we see new opportunities for the Syrian people and the wider region.

“We will work with our partners and stakeholders in Syria to seize the opportunities and manage the risks of Syria’s transition,” Biden said.

Biden stressed that stability and U.S. personnel would continue to be maintained in eastern Syria and that the mission against ISIS would be maintained.

MIDDLE EAST

Secret talks underway: US engages directly with Hamas over hostages

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It has been revealed that the Trump administration is conducting direct secret negotiations with Hamas regarding US citizen Israeli hostages in Gaza and the possibility of a broader agreement with Israel.

According to a report by Axios, a US-based publication, citing two sources familiar with the secret negotiations, the US has established direct contact with Hamas for the first time. The report stated that US Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler met with Hamas officials in Doha, the capital of Qatar.

The sources indicated that the negotiations focused on the release of hostages with dual Israeli-US citizenship, and the possibility of a more comprehensive agreement for the release of all hostages and a long-term ceasefire was also among the topics discussed. The sources noted that the Trump administration consulted with Israel on communicating with Hamas, but Tel Aviv was informed of the scope of the talks through different channels. It was also emphasized that no agreement was reached in these negotiations.

While Axios reported this meeting as the first, a Palestinian source speaking to Anadolu Agency said that this meeting, which took place a few weeks ago, was not the first. According to the source, Hamas emphasized the necessity of moving to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in its meeting with the US representative. Hamas also pointed out that “the release of captured soldiers is not the same as the release of civilian prisoners.”

White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the US is in direct talks with Hamas.

Leavitt stated, “The special representative (Steve Witkoff) leading these negotiations has the authority to speak with everyone, and Israel was consulted on this matter. These are ongoing negotiations, so I will not go into detail at this time. The lives of Americans are at stake.” The White House spokesperson said that they hold many meetings around the world in line with the country’s interests and try to do what is right for the American people.

It is estimated that there are currently 59 Israeli hostages in Gaza, five of whom are also believed to have American citizenship.

As part of the prisoner exchange in the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement reached between Hamas and Israel on January 19, over 1,700 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons were released, while 33 Israeli hostages in Gaza, 25 alive and 8 deceased, were handed over.

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MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu ally Eyal Zamir takes over as Israeli chief of general staff

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Israeli Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi has stepped down, resigning due to the failure on October 7. Eyal Zamir, the Director General of the Ministry of Defense appointed in his place, is a figure close to Netanyahu, unlike Halevi.

Eyal Zamir, appointed as Chief of General Staff to replace Herzi Halevi, who announced his resignation on January 21, officially assumed his duties in a ceremony.

The ceremony was attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and Israeli officials, as well as the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander, Michael Erik Kurilla.

Zamir officially took over as Chief of General Staff at a ceremony held at the Kirya military base, where the Israeli Ministry of Defense headquarters is located in Tel Aviv, with Netanyahu and Katz pinning his ranks.

Speaking at the ceremony, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz thanked outgoing Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi and wished Zamir success.

Netanyahu stated that he had worked closely with Zamir before and that he had recommended him for the position of Chief of General Staff for the third time.

In his speech, Katz stated that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons.

Claiming that they would not allow Hamas to control Gaza, Katz asserted that the people of Gaza would be encouraged to “voluntary emigration” in line with US President Donald Trump’s proposal.

Halevi, who announced his resignation on January 21, stating that he felt “the responsibility for the catastrophic failure” in the attacks from Gaza on October 7, 2023, reiterated his call for the “establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failure” in his farewell speech.

“The Israeli army failed on October 7,” Halevi said. “There was a profound failure here. It is not right that a failure of this magnitude should be investigated only in the Israeli army and Shin Bet. The Israeli army is part of the national order of priorities, accepts policy, and acts accordingly. The establishment of a state commission of inquiry is necessary and vital.”

Netanyahu rejects Halevi’s call for the establishment of a fully authorized and independent state commission to investigate government officials regarding October 7. Netanyahu wants a political commission to be established, which does not have the authority to make binding decisions, on the grounds that the war is ongoing. The disagreements on this issue fuel the long-standing tension between the government and the security establishment.

The newspaper Haaretz reported that Zamir is a figure very close to Netanyahu.

The report, based on an unnamed Israeli source, recalled that Zamir served as Netanyahu’s military advisor between 2012 and 2015, and stated that Zamir is still “very close to the prime minister.”

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MIDDLE EAST

Gaza reconstruction plan: $53 billion needed, Palestinian Authority to govern

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According to a plan devised by Arab leaders, the governance of Gaza will be handed over to the Palestinian Authority.

The “Arab plan,” prepared by Egypt for the reconstruction of Gaza and adopted at the Arab League’s Cairo Summit, envisages the establishment of a temporary administrative committee for a period of six months, followed by the transfer of Gaza’s governance to the Palestinian Authority. The plan suggests that, without explicitly naming Hamas, the group would lay down its arms if a credible political process is initiated.

Egypt has prepared a 91-page plan titled “Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development of Gaza.”

The report on this plan states that the total material damage resulting from Israel’s war of destruction on Gaza amounts to $29.9 billion, with the housing sector being the most affected, costing $15.8 billion and constituting 53% of the total damage.

According to the report, an estimated 30,000 residential buildings have been damaged, of which 272,000 apartments have been completely destroyed, and 58,500 apartments have been partially damaged.

The report indicates that satellite imagery reveals that 1,190 kilometers of Gaza Strip’s roads have been destroyed, with an additional 415 kilometers severely damaged and 1,440 kilometers significantly damaged.

In the health sector, the damage is estimated at $1.3 billion, with losses amounting to $6.3 billion. The report notes that 50% of the hospitals in the Gaza Strip (18 hospitals) are completely out of service, while 17 hospitals are partially operational, failing to meet the increasing health needs.

In the education sector, the damage is estimated at $874 million, with losses reaching $3.2 billion. The report highlights that 88% of schools have been destroyed, with the remainder converted into temporary shelters for families fleeing the war. Additionally, 51 university buildings have been destroyed.

In the trade and industry sector, the damage amounts to $5.9 billion, with losses totaling $2.2 billion. The report also estimates that the damage in the transportation sector is $2.5 billion, with losses of $377 million.

The damage in the water and sewage sector is recorded at $15 billion, with losses reaching $64 million. In the electricity sector, losses are estimated to be $450 million.

Recovery and reconstruction needs

Considering these damages, the plan estimates the total need for Gaza’s reconstruction at $53 billion, with $3 billion allocated for “early recovery” to be used within six months.

The report states that the housing sector accounts for the largest share of recovery needs, with a total value of $15.2 billion. This is followed by the health, trade, and industry sectors, each requiring $6.9 billion for recovery, roads at $2.45 billion, and the electricity sector at $1.5 billion.

The education sector needs $3.8 billion for recovery, while the agriculture and social protection sectors each require $4.2 billion. The transportation sector needs $2.9 billion, and the water and sanitation sector needs $2.7 billion.

The report indicates a need for $1.25 billion for a four-stage process that includes debris removal, unexploded ordnance disposal, recycling, and transformation.

Implementation stages of the plan

The report emphasizes the need to prepare a roadmap and an urgent development plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in three phases over a five-year period until 2030, accommodating approximately 3 million people.

The first phase, termed the “early recovery phase,” with an estimated timeframe of six months and a cost of $3 billion, includes tasks such as removing debris in some areas and repairing them for temporary housing, repairing 60,000 partially damaged houses to accommodate 360,000 people, and constructing 200,000 temporary housing units to accommodate 1.2 million people.

The second phase, with a two-year timeframe and a cost of $20 billion, envisages the construction of 200,000 new housing units, infrastructure development, completion of debris removal and sorting, restoration of 60,000 houses to accommodate 1.6 million people, reclamation of 20,000 acres of land, and the establishment of service facilities.

The third phase, termed the “second phase of reconstruction,” is expected to be completed in 2.5 years at a cost of $30 billion. This phase includes the construction of an additional 200,000 housing units to accommodate 1.2 million people and infrastructure development.

The report states that this phase envisages the establishment of the first stage of an industrial zone on a 600-acre area, as well as the construction of a fishing port, a commercial port, and Gaza Airport. It also indicates the provision of 500,000 jobs for Palestinians in Gaza in various sectors.

Political context of the plan

The plan states that while preserving the internationally accepted two-state solution horizon, reconstruction is based on the rights and dignity of Palestinians.

Emphasizing the rejection of any attempts to displace Palestinians from Gaza, the plan points out that it is illogical to ignore the desire and right of the Palestinian people, who are firmly attached to their land, to remain on this land in the face of this catastrophic crisis that the Gaza Strip and its people are experiencing.

Noting that the Gaza Strip is an integral part of the Palestinian territories, the plan warns that attempts to geographically separate Gaza from the West Bank will lead to further instability.

The plan warns that ignoring the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza could lead to an escalation of conflicts in the region and calls on the international community to support reconstruction efforts primarily for humanitarian reasons.

Transitional governance during Gaza’s reconstruction

Regarding the governance of Gaza during the reconstruction process, the plan indicates that efforts are underway to establish a temporary administrative committee composed of independent technocrats under the umbrella of the Palestinian government in the Gaza Strip for a period of six months, with the aim of paving the way for the full return of the Palestinian National Authority to the Gaza Strip.

The plan emphasizes that what is currently expected from the international community is to support and encourage these efforts to ensure the success of the administrative committee and its ability to manage the subsequent phase.

Regarding the mission to ensure security in Gaza, the plan notes that Egypt and Jordan are working to train Palestinian police to be sent to the Gaza Strip to enable the Palestinian Authority to return to the Gaza Strip and fulfill its administrative duties.

Calling for these efforts to be supported by political and financial support and the efforts of international and regional partners, the plan suggests that the United Nations Security Council consider deploying an international peacekeeping force in the Palestinian territories, including Gaza and the West Bank, within a clear timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The plan indicates that the problem of numerous Palestinian parties carrying weapons in Gaza can be eliminated forever “if the reasons are removed through a credible political process with a clear horizon and ensuring the return of rights to their owners.”

Egypt’s plan emphasizes that all previous efforts should be directed towards implementing the two-state solution and working to achieve a medium-term ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, encompassing the West Bank and Gaza, as well as halting all unilateral initiatives such as settlement construction, house demolitions, military interventions, and protecting the legal and historical status of holy sites.

The plan notes that if there is political will, the reconstruction of Gaza as proposed is possible.

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