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The hidden theme of Trump’s resource push in Ukraine: China

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Merve Suna Özel Özcan [1]

Donald Trump’s potential second presidential term coincides with a period of intensifying global conflicts and wars, a time when the international system is in dire need of stability and peace. Against this backdrop, Trump attempts to position himself as the leader who will ensure global peace, yet the underlying motives for this role and the realities on the ground diverge significantly. A critical aspect of this dynamic is Trump’s energy policy decisions and their less visible repercussions on the international stage, particularly in Gaza and Ukraine. These regions, where conflicts initiated during the Biden administration, are directly linked to underground energy resources and potential wealth. Intriguingly, a powerful network of energy companies is also backing Trump’s election campaign. A report by Climate Power indicates that fossil fuel companies contributed $96 million to political action committees and $243 million to lobbying Congress. [2] Thus, it was evident even at the donor stage that energy’s influence within the system would increase.

Energy-related considerations are also discernible in Trump’s Gaza policy. As detailed in Professor Joseph Pelzman’s report, reportedly presented to him in July 2024, the tripartite model for Gaza’s reconstruction emphasizes tourism, agriculture, and high-tech fields. [3] It is evident that the energy sector will be integrated into these high-tech advancements, even if implicitly. This, coupled with Trump’s supporters, reveals a shared interest between Gaza and Ukraine: underground resources. However, this study will concentrate on Ukraine rather than Gaza. A brief brainstorming session is warranted here. Despite global calls for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, a struggle for control over minerals and elements is, in fact, underway.

Trump’s Energy Policy and the Subjectivization of China

Trump’s actions in the energy sector foreshadow his future policies. These decisions will impact international balances and lead to significant shifts in the US’ global energy and geopolitical strategy. Notably, Trump reinstated the energy emergency declared by President Jimmy Carter during the 1970s fossil fuel shortage, asserting that the US must combat high global energy prices while simultaneously safeguarding its energy security.

The 1973 Oil Crisis profoundly affected the world. The US experienced severe energy supply disruptions, realizing energy’s power as a foreign policy tool. The OPEC oil embargo exposed the West’s energy dependence. Energy prices soared, economies suffered, and the West confronted an energy crisis. However, while the US isn’t currently facing a 1970s-style global energy shortage, two crucial factors are being overlooked. This situation isn’t solely about the effects of drilling activities in Alaska; it’s also a US move to strengthen its global position. This increased influence should be considered not only in terms of fossil fuels but also concerning precious metals.

To solidify its energy position, the US has rapidly initiated drilling activities, reminiscent of 19th-century aggressive capitalism. This can be seen as an attempt to break Russia’s dominance in the global energy sector. However, Russia isn’t the sole power; OPEC countries also hold significant sway over energy markets.

While Trump’s campaign promise to reduce energy prices by 50 percent is noteworthy, its feasibility in international markets is questionable. Nevertheless, a slight market decline is a targeted outcome for the US. Furthermore, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) policy includes export incentives. Within the context of Trump’s tariff wars, China’s 15 percent additional tax on LNG imports from the US was an unwelcome development. [4] However, despite being a major global LNG exporter, the US doesn’t export significant quantities to China. According to the US Energy Information Administration in 2023, these US exports constituted approximately 2.3% of China’s total natural gas exports. [5] This is an unfavorable situation for the US, particularly for Trump. Indeed, Trump might impose new tariffs on LNG sales, not only to China but also to the EU, which is indirectly connected to the matter. In this regard, it’s crucial to recognize that China is likely the unseen but most critical subject behind Trump’s energy policies.

The Move to Overtake China in Energy and Mining

In connection with the Russia-Ukraine War, Trump’s February 3rd announcements regarding rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals (CMs) are a significant systemic development. Trump, who initially labeled the war as “premature” and “a war that would never have happened if someone else had been president,” also claimed he could end it within 24 hours if elected. However, the central question is: Will this result in genuine success, or will it lead to a frozen conflict zone? The answer will largely align with Trump’s interests, as he has not exhibited a particularly warm stance towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky throughout the war.

Indeed, Zelensky, recognizing this continued trend after Trump’s potential presidency, received perhaps the quickest response from Trump while opening Ukraine’s underground resources to allies as an investment opportunity. Trump, approaching the issue with a businessman’s mindset, announced his demand for $500 billion worth of rare earth elements from Ukraine, viewing this as a return for US aid during the war.

Although there might not appear to be a direct connection between the National Energy Plan and REEs initially, it’s crucial to understand that REEs and CMs are ubiquitous in modern life. REEs and CMs enhance energy efficiency, particularly in electronic devices, and are vital for advanced technologies. REEs, especially used in magnet construction, are widely used materials with limited substitutes. This is because REEs, comprising 17 elements [6], are highly dispersed and challenging to process, rather than being inherently rare, hence their name. [7]

The US Geological Survey reports that approximately 50 CMs, including nickel and lithium, are currently considered strategically important. [8] While a direct link between the National Energy Plan and REEs might seem absent, REEs play a crucial role in sectors like renewable energy, battery technologies, and electric vehicles. Global competition for these elements, integral to numerous critical sectors from mobile phones to defense industry missiles, is intensifying.

Crucially, CMs and REEs are not only vital for electronics and industry but also for the green energy transition. These elements play a significant role in wind turbine magnets, electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and energy storage systems. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite as particularly critical for energy density and batteries. [9]

So, why is Ukraine significant? Deposits of 22 of these minerals are located in Ukraine. Therefore, Trump’s Ukraine move was a significant step. There is no doubt that the steps to be taken to ensure peace in the region will become a bargaining chip.

The most critical question is: Why did Trump focus on these elements, and what is the impact of this on the energy sector? As is well known, China dominates the raw material market in terms of REEs. This situation needs to be analyzed from several perspectives. The situation with regard to REE and CM increases the risk of slowing down the EU green energy transition in particular. Supply constraints, together with EU energy sanctions against Russia, could jeopardize alternative green energy options.

However, due to the importance of precious metals for energy storage systems, these elements are becoming even more critical in the energy field, especially as the EU sees China as its biggest obstacle and competitor in green energy and energy storage.

This situation could, in fact, benefit the US LNG policy. However, the US also holds a green energy card. While the Trump administration seeks to expand its global energy influence by increasing fossil fuel production, it may also aim to influence the green energy strategy through rare earth elements.

Secondly, Trump’s tariff wars against China have had a boomerang effect. Beijing, announcing additional export controls on rare metals, has also targeted minerals like tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, which the US Geological Survey considers critical. [10] The IEA, based on 2023 data, reported that China’s REE reserves held an 87% global share. [11] From this perspective, Trump aims to control these elements, crucial for electric vehicles and green energy, against China. However, owning and processing REEs carries environmental costs. While developing clean technologies for processing these elements is vital, its feasibility in the near future is questionable. Trump’s stance on environmental and climate issues in his energy and drilling policies is already evident. His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement [12] clearly demonstrated this policy.

In conclusion, Trump’s primary approach will be to gain in every sense on the Ukraine axis. This entails monopolizing the REEs, which the EU deems critical for green energy and energy storage, and transforming the process into an energy race. Therefore, Trump is poised to convert his aggressive domestic energy drilling policies into an aggressive REE extraction strategy in Ukraine, continuing his aggressive energy drilling policies in his foreign policy. This approach will bolster the US’ hand not only in the energy sector but also in the global mining sector. Through these policies, the Trump administration aims to challenge China’s dominance over REEs in the trade wars, or at least weaken its position. In short, the approach of “Whatever happens, but to China” is also evident here.

[1] Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kırıkkale University, Department of International Relations, [email protected]

[2] https://climatepower.us/research-polling/big-oil-spent-450-million-to-influence-trump-the-119th-congress/

[3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-man-with-the-plan-dc-prof-sent-trump-gaza-relocation-development-study-in-july/

[4] https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/article/texas-lng-trump-trade-tariffs-20146423.php

[5] https://www.ekonomigazetesi.com/ekonomi/kuresel-ekonomi/cin-enerji-ve-kritik-minerallere-nisan-aldi-55270/

[6] https://www.iisd.org/publications/brief/critical-minerals-primer?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA8Lu9BhA8EiwAag16bxB2A0ePwBzIwqK98_03orz72TRmZMc6TkNdIiZOkhFupcTMkybsDBoCoGQQAvD_BwE

[7] https://enerji.gov.tr/infobank-naturalresources-rareearthelements

[8] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-are-ukraines-critical-minerals-why-does-trump-want-them-2025-02-12/

[9] https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

[10] https://www.ekonomigazetesi.com/ekonomi/kuresel-ekonomi/cin-enerji-ve-kritik-minerallere-nisan-aldi-55270/

[11] https://www.voaturkce.com/a/dunya-temiz-enerjiye-gecis-surecinde-cin-in-nadir-toprak-elementleri-uzerindeki-egemenligini-kirma-mucadelesi-veriy%C4%B1r/7209892.html

[12] https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/where-will-trumps-strategy-lead-energy-security-or-global-destruction

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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