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Has Ukraine become Trump’s ‘Valentine’s Day’ gift to Putin?

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February 14 is “Valentine’s Day,” an important day in the Western world, and it also coincided with the opening of the three-day Munich Security Conference (MSC). A day earlier, U.S. President Trump announced that high-ranking diplomats from the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine would attend the conference. He emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict “must come to an end” and criticized former U.S. President Biden’s statements that suggesting “Ukraine could join NATO.” According to Trump, these remarks contributed to the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022. Additionally, Trump expressed his desire for Russia to rejoin the G8, arguing that if the G8 had still existed, the Ukraine issue might never have arisen. Trump has always admired and respected Russian President Putin and has never concealed his pro-Russian stance. Less than a month into office, Trump made the Russia-Ukraine conflict one of the top priorities of his foreign policy agenda, presenting policies and proposals that largely disappointed Ukraine and European countries. Because of this, observers jokingly said that Trump was preparing to give Ukraine to Putin and Russia as a “Valentine’s Day” gift.

It was evident that Trump attached great importance to this year’s Munich Security Conference. He sent a high-level delegation led by Vice President Vance, which included Secretary of State Rubio and the special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Kellogg. Ukraine, on the other hand, was represented personally by President Zelensky. Russia, however, continued its tradition of not attending the conference, which it had maintained since 2022. This year’s Munich Security Conference was significantly different from the previous three meetings. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict remained the main agenda item, the focus was no longer solely on condemning Russia or discussing how to support Ukraine. Instead, the discussions centered on how to end the war and how the U.S. and Europe could bring this “European version of the Afghanistan War” to a conclusion. The reason for this shift is simple: the U.S. government has changed. The Biden administration, which had once orchestrated the Ukraine crisis and “trapped” Russia and Europe, is now in the past. Trump, who has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war “overnight,” is back in power and is now the key decision-maker regarding whether the war will end and how the crisis will unfold.

February 24 marks the third anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Before this significant date arrives, Trump has already clearly laid out his blueprint for reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. This blueprint is far more realistic and tangible than Trump’s previous ideas of annexing Greenland, Canada, and Mexico, controlling the Panama Canal, or even “clearing out Gaza.” It is also a conclusion that leaves Ukraine and Europe deeply frustrated yet powerless to change. This naturally aligns with the author’s prediction from three years ago—that “Russia will achieve a tragic victory, while Ukraine will suffer a tragic defeat.”

On the 12th, Trump and Putin held their first phone consultation in several years. According to Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, the call lasted an hour and a half, during which both parties agreed on achieving a long-term resolution to the Ukraine crisis through negotiations, arranging a U.S.-Russia summit, Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow, as well as discussions on U.S.-Russia relations and the Middle East situation. It is also reported that their conversation extended beyond geopolitical issues, covering topics such as artificial intelligence, energy, and the U.S. dollar, giving the call a broader significance beyond the constraints of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The messages conveyed were also highly intriguing.

Moreover, both sides agreed to immediately establish and dispatch a negotiation team to begin talks. On the 18th, representatives of Russia and the United States began their first official high-level talks since the start of the Ukraine war in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. The Russian side is represented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russian Deputy Presidential Advisor Yuriy Ushakov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev. The U.S. delegation includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and White House Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.

These developments indicate that the U.S. and Russia have begun to emerge from a three-year-long geopolitical standoff, restoring direct communication between their heads of state and effectively bringing bilateral relations back to the state they were in before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Prior to the call, both sides not only made a series of positive statements to set the stage but also facilitated the release of detained personnel from each other’s countries, further warming the atmosphere. However, this call undoubtedly demonstrated an example of “over-the-top diplomacy” for Ukraine and America’s European partners. That is, as the leader of the Western bloc and NATO’s de facto commander, the U.S. engaged in direct discussions with its long-time adversary, Russia, over Ukraine’s and Europe’s future without thoroughly consulting its partners and allies in advance.

This approach reflects Trump’s signature “simple, direct, and effective” style, as well as a significant return to realism in great power relations. It also serves as a concrete illustration of the principle that “power determines status” and embodies the jungle law that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken once cited: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

After reminiscing and discussing major decisions with Putin, Trump then had an hour-long phone call with Zelensky, briefing him on “all the details” of his talks with Putin. Zelensky stated, “We are working on coordinating with the U.S. to stop Russian aggression and ensure a reliable and lasting peace. President Trump said, ‘Let’s do it.'” These statements indicate that Ukraine has decided to follow Trump’s proposed roadmap and timeline to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, eliminate the crisis at its root, and plan for Ukraine’s future.

Trump has actually already outlined the framework of his plan for how to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war, fundamentally resolve the crisis, and ensure Ukraine’s long-term security. His first priority is to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible, aiming to reach this goal within the first six months of his presidency. Trump has previously warned that if either Russia or Ukraine opposes this objective, he will support the other side to ensure that the goal is met.

Secondly, the borders between Russia and Ukraine will not return to their pre-conflict positions. On February 12, at the 26th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, the newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense, Hegses, stated bluntly: “Restoring Ukraine’s borders to their pre-2014 state is unrealistic. Pursuing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

Thirdly, Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, neither in the near future nor in the long term. On the 12th, Trump once again emphasized this point via CNN, directly citing Hegses’ statement that Ukraine’s NATO membership is “unrealistic.” Hegses even told European partners in Brussels that after the crisis ends, European forces should be the primary force responsible for Ukraine’s security, and the U.S. military would not participate.

Russia, which has taken clear initiative on the battlefield, remains composed and patient, waiting for the day when the U.S. finally abandons Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities have evidently lost confidence—not only do they see no hope of reclaiming lost territories through military means, but they also fear losing further American military aid. They have even abandoned the fantasy of NATO membership under U.S. leadership and are now scrambling to preserve what remains, mitigate losses, and secure U.S. security guarantees by any means necessary.

On the same day that Trump held separate phone calls with Putin and Zelensky, Kyiv was busy receiving the newly appointed U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Besent. As the first high-ranking official from Trump’s new administration to visit Ukraine, Besent was invited by Zelensky to discuss an economic cooperation deal. The proposal involves opening up Ukraine’s mineral resources to American companies, allowing Ukraine to monetize its reserves as “compensation” for U.S. aid. Observers have described this deal as “trading minerals for assistance,” aiming to secure $300 billion in support from the Trump administration.

Over the past three years, the United States has provided Ukraine with a total of $32.4 billion, accounting for 27.2% of global aid to Ukraine. As part of Zelensky’s so-called “Victory Plan,” this resource transaction aims to bind the U.S. to Ukraine in an effort to prevent Washington from cutting off aid. However, this type of resource-based arrangement will undoubtedly provoke Russia to accelerate the extraction of minerals in its controlled territories and may even spark a global rush to exploit Ukraine’s mineral wealth. For Ukraine, after losing vast amounts of land, continuing to sell off its resources raises the question: is this a diplomatic victory or a failure? Readers can judge for themselves.

In conclusion, Trump’s solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is now fully laid out—it is no longer subject to speculation or multiple interpretations. It firmly establishes Ukraine as the ultimate loser in this conflict. Meanwhile, Europe, having lost U.S. support and NATO’s protective umbrella, now finds its hopes of collectively defending Ukraine or even reclaiming lost territories to be nothing more than a geopolitical fairy tale.

The framework of a “Russia’s tragic victory and Ukraine’s tragic defeat” is now set, and as the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its third anniversary, its end may finally be in sight. Moving forward, we will witness how, under U.S. mediation, Russia and Ukraine negotiate de-escalation, gradual cooling of hostilities, and a step-by-step ceasefire, ultimately leading to a long-term armistice agreement akin to the Korean War settlement or another form of peace deal.

We will also see how, under Trump’s coercion and diplomatic maneuvering, the U.S. will gradually ease and lift sanctions on Russia, push for Russia’s return to the G8, and work to normalize Russia-Europe relations by sidelining the Ukraine crisis.

The like-minded Trump and Putin have finally found their long-awaited opportunity for direct dialogue and collaboration, and they truly understand and resonate with each other. If you don’t believe it, consider this piece of news: on February 10, Trump’s social media account shared Putin’s flattering remark, stating that Trump will “soon restore order in Europe” and that Europe will “stand at its master’s feet, gently wagging its tail.”

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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