Diplomacy
Starmer faces Cabinet rift over US-Iran military operations
Internal discord has fractured the British government regarding the US-led military operations against Iran and the authorization for American forces to utilize British military bases.
According to reports from The Telegraph, during a meeting held the Friday preceding the strikes, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper expressed vehement opposition to the UK supporting what they characterized as an illegal, preemptive military campaign.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially supported his ministers, resisting pressure from Donald Trump to permit US bombers to launch strikes against Iran from Royal Air Force (RAF) bases in Gloucestershire and the Chagos Islands.
Less than 48 hours later, however, the Prime Minister pivoted. US B-2 stealth bombers are now scheduled to arrive in the coming days at Diego Garcia, a military installation on the Chagos Islands, to conduct what have been described as “limited, defensive” missions.
President Trump indicated that large-scale US strikes remain pending, contingent upon Iran’s continued aggression toward Western allies in the Gulf and the Middle East.
Furthermore, the US has reportedly destroyed an Iranian warship with a submarine near Sri Lanka. This action marks the first such naval engagement involving a submarine since the sinking of the General Belgrano by the UK during the Falklands War.
During the National Security Council meeting on Friday, Energy Secretary Miliband voiced fierce opposition to the imminent US airstrikes, focusing on the potential repercussions for the UK’s energy security.
The meeting followed more than two weeks of contentious deliberations with President Trump and his administration.
Miliband leads opposition to Iran war
These deliberations included a heated exchange between the UK’s Deputy National Security Adviser, Matt Collins, and Elbridge Colby, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development.
Reportedly relying on the legal counsel of Attorney General Lord Hermer, Miliband articulated what was described as a “grumpy, pacifist, legalistic, and highly political” argument against both the airstrikes and British participation.
“He [Miliband] fundamentally dislikes Trump and dislikes this Iran business,” a source remarked to The Spectator.
Miliband’s position was supported by the Chancellor and the Foreign Secretary, who advocated for Starmer to maintain a firm stance against Washington’s pressure to join the conflict.
Conversely, Defence Secretary John Healey reportedly favored granting permission for the use of British bases to protect allies from Iranian retaliation.
The Prime Minister’s initial refusal to authorize the use of Diego Garcia drew sharp criticism from President Trump.
On Monday, Trump told The Telegraph that the Prime Minister had “greatly disappointed” him; by Tuesday, he had further remarked that Starmer was “no Winston Churchill” and was “ruining the relationship.”
According to Western officials, preparations are underway at Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire for the arrival of US combat aircraft this week.
The Telegraph also reported that the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon, which Starmer stated on Tuesday would be deployed to defend the British base in Cyprus, will not arrive for another two weeks as it was not slated to depart Portsmouth until next week.
The vessel had been undergoing maintenance prior to the announcement of its deployment to the Eastern Mediterranean; however, the HMS Duncan remains available for immediate deployment.
Starmer: US Aircraft Operating from UK Bases
During parliamentary proceedings on Wednesday, Conservative MP Gareth Bacon questioned the Prime Minister: “The US is our most important international strategic partner. Does the Prime Minister believe that his hesitant and ambiguous response to the events in the Middle East this week has strengthened or weakened this relationship?”
Starmer defended his position, stating that the British military had been in contact with the US for several weeks and that British forces were actively engaged in operations to protect American lives.
In the House of Commons, Starmer justified his initial decision to withhold base access, asserting that there was no legal basis or “viable, well-thought-out plan” at the time.
Starmer stated:
“US aircraft are operating from UK bases. That is how the special relationship works. British jets are intercepting drones and missiles to protect American lives in the Middle East from our shared bases. That is how the special relationship works. We share intelligence daily to ensure the safety of our people. That is how the special relationship works. Obsessing over President Trump’s recent remarks is not the special relationship.”
Military assets deployed by the UK include radar systems, ground-based air defense, counter-drone capabilities, and combat aircraft.
“Since Saturday morning, a significant number of F-35s and Typhoons have been on patrol, not just in the Middle East but across the entirety of Cyprus. Further missions were conducted throughout the night. Typhoons have been specifically tasked with the defense of Qatar, while F-35s have supported other regional partners,” the Prime Minister added.
A spokesperson for the Prime Minister subsequently stated:
“The Prime Minister has been exceptionally clear that he will only take decisions that align with the UK’s national interest and ensure the safety of the British people.”
US withheld operational details from UK
According to The Guardian, the US did not share specific operational details or the precise timing of the joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran with the UK beforehand.
The US decision to exclude the UK from the official notification loop regarding the airstrikes coincided with Keir Starmer’s initial refusal to allow US access to British military bases.
Government sources indicated that while the UK usually aligns with the US on military matters, it is difficult to determine whether the lack of formal notification was unprecedented.
A source from Whitehall confirmed that the UK was aware an operation was imminent through the buildup of equipment and intelligence via “normal channels,” but was not informed of the exact timing or operational specifics.
The UK decided to evacuate its embassy in Tehran on Friday, signaling an awareness of the impending strikes, though details regarding the timing over the weekend remained undisclosed.
RAF Akrotiri houses 4,000 personnel and is home to F-35 and Eurofighter jets. Beyond RAF Akrotiri, the UK’s largest permanent overseas airbase, the country maintains three other permanent installations in the region.
These include a naval support facility in Bahrain, a joint logistical support base in Duqm, Oman, and the Donnelly Lines facility at Al-Minhad Air Base in the UAE.
British forces also possess access to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Additionally, Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean, remains within striking range for long-range US bombers targeting Iran.
Regional allies frustrated: ‘You did not protect us’
Other British allies have expressed dissatisfaction with Starmer’s response to the conflict.
Kyriakos Kouros, the High Commissioner of the Republic of Cyprus to the UK, told The Times that Cyprus expected at least a robust defense from Britain, given that the UK maintains two sovereign base areas on the island.
“The French are coming; we expect the British to be there as well, because as I said, we are not just defending the Cypriots on the island,” Kouros said.
The Times further reported that Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have expressed concerns regarding the UK’s tepid reaction to the Middle East conflict.
The UK operates a naval support facility in Bahrain with approximately 300 personnel. This facility is located near the site where Iran launched a successful missile attack against the US Fifth Fleet headquarters.
Defence Secretary John Healey noted that the missile impacted less than 200 meters from British forces.
Gulf nations, including the UAE, have been reportedly incensed by the delay in granting permission to use joint bases, including Diego Garcia, to conduct “defensive” airstrikes against Iranian missile sites.
Public criticism reflects deep-seated frustration among Britain’s regional allies regarding the perceived slow response to Iranian retaliation.
A source familiar with the concerns of the UAE remarked: “There was a sense that the Prime Minister had to be dragged there. This clearly leaves a poor impression in the eyes of the Gulf Cooperation Council.”
Royal Navy Wildcat helicopters, equipped with Martlet missiles capable of neutralizing aerial threats, are scheduled to arrive in Cyprus in the coming days.
Kouros noted that while the deployment of the HMS Dragon was “welcomed,” the vessel’s arrival remains more than a week away.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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